6. Leading Indicators
6. Leading Indicators
The emissions data presented in this report are not published until around 18 months after the end of the last year reported. As a result, we cannot present any information about Scottish emissions in 2017 at this stage. However, there are some indicators of transport emissions available for Scotland.
- Scottish road vehicle kilometres travelled: In 2017 kilometres travelled were higher than at any point in the 10 years prior.
- Sales of plug-in vehicle grant eligible cars in Scotland: 2017 sales are 57% higher than 2016.
- Aircraft movements: this is the number of take offs and landings at Scottish airports. These are rising, but by a smaller proportion than aviation emissions. This suggests that emissions per aircraft movement are rising, but the reasons behind this are not certain.
- Provisional 2017 UK transport emissions: An estimate published earlier than the NAEI shows UK transport emissions excluding international aviation and shipping remaining the same as the previous year.
- UK domestic transport fuel consumption: tracks total transport fuel sales. In 2017 this indicator rose 0.1% on the previous year.
- Scottish GVA: The 1.3% growth seen in the year to Q1 2018 is slower than in previous years.
- Scottish forecourt pump prices July 2017 – July 2018: prices of both petrol and diesel increased by 11.7% and 14.3% respectively.
Collectively the indicators imply that reducing transport emissions is becoming more challenging in the face of rising demand across a range of modes.
| No. |
Indicator |
2016 |
2017 |
Average growth p.a. |
Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (2003-2017) |
(2016-2017) |
||||
1 |
Scottish road vehicle kilometres travelled |
46.2 |
47.6 |
1.0% |
3.1% |
2 |
Sales of Plug in Grant cars in Scotland |
1,367 |
2,150 |
- |
57% |
3 |
Aircraft movements |
481,334 |
495,096 |
1.7% |
2.9% |
4 |
UK transport emissions (excl. IAS) (MtCO2e) |
124.4 |
124.4 |
-0.5% |
0.0% |
5 |
UK domestic road fuel consumption by transport (million tonnes) |
36.671 |
36.724 |
-0.5% |
0.1% |
6 |
Average CO2/km of petrol cars registered for the first time in Scotland |
123.8 |
122.5 |
2003 Data Unavailable |
-1.1% |
7 |
Average CO2/km of diesel cars registered for the first time in Scotland |
119.2 |
118.4 |
2003 Data Unavailable |
-0.7% |
| Growth |
|||||
8 |
Scottish year-on-year GVA growth (to Q1 2018) |
- |
- |
- |
1.3% |
9 |
Scottish year-on-year change in a) petrol and b) diesel prices (July 17 - July 18) - NOMINAL |
a) 11.7% b) 14.3% |
Sources: 1,2: Department for Transport; 3: Civil Aviation Authority; 4-7: Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy; 8: The Scottish Government; 9: AA Fuel Price Report.