The CAT provides a carbon balance sheet for Scotland, and presents the impact of all Scottish transport policies and projects: .... expected to have a significant impact on carbon, whether positive or negative (National Transport Strategy page 46). Based on greenhouse gas emissions estimates up to and including 2014, the main findings in this latest report are:
- In 2014 Scottish emissions from all sectors amounted to 46.7 mega-tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e). Transport’s share, including emissions from international aviation and shipping (IAS) was 12.9 MtCO2e. Transport accounts for 28% of Scotland’s total emissions.
- Transport emissions including IAS have fallen for seven consecutive years and by 2.0 MtCO2e since peak figure of 14.9 MtCO2e recorded in 2007. However, the fall in emissions between 2013 and 2014 is less than 0.01%, so is best described as unchanged between 2013 and 2014.
- Road transport emissions account for 73% of all transport emissions and cars account for 59% of road emissions. Emissions from cars account for 44% of all transport emissions with emissions from goods vehicles (combined light and heavy) accounting for a further 25% of the total.
- Looking at the entire period 1990-2014:
- Total transport emissions (12.9 MtCO2e) remain below their 1990 level of 13.3 MtCO2e.
- At 5.7 MtCO2e, emissions from cars are marginally below their 1990 level of 5.8 MtCO2e
- Emissions from aviation have risen by 38% since 1990 to stand at 1.9 MtCO2e with goods vehicle emissions up 17% at 3.2 MtCO2e.
- The significant rise in emissions from goods vehicles (from 2.7 MtCO2e to 3.2 MtCO2e in 2014) is largely a result of the increase in emissions from Light Good Vehicles prior to 2007 with HGV emissions accounting for the bulk of the increase from 2009.
- The specific infrastructure projects outlined in the CAT add an estimated net 0.05 MtCO2e to total transport emissions in 2027 –equivalent to 0.4% of current transport emissions.