6. Leading Indicators 

Carbon Account For Transport Volume 9, 2017

6. Leading Indicators 

The emissions data presented in this report are not published until around 18 months after the end of the last year reported. As a result, we cannot present any information about Scottish emissions in 2016 at this stage. However, there are some indicators of transport emissions available for Scotland.

  • Scottish road vehicle kilometres travelled: In 2016 kilometres travelled were higher than at any point in the 10 years prior. 
  • Sales of plug-in vehicle grant eligible cars in Scotland: 2016 sales are 5.3% higher than 2015. 
  • Aircraft movements: this is the number of take offs and landings at Scottish airports. These are rising, but by a smaller proportion than aviation emissions. This suggests that emissions per aircraft movement are rising, but the reasons behind this are not certain. 
  • Provisional 2016 UK transport emissions: An estimate published earlier than the NAEI shows UK transport emissions excluding international aviation and shipping rising by 0.9% in 2016 on the previous year.
  • UK domestic transport fuel consumption: tracks total transport fuel sales. In 2016 this indicator rose 2.4% on the previous year. 
  • Scottish GVA: The 0.6% growth seen in the year to Q1 2017 is slower than in previous years. 
  • Scottish forecourt pump prices July 2016 – July 2017: prices of both petrol and diesel increased by 2.23% and 2.40% respectively.

Collectively the indicators imply that reducing transport emissions is becoming more challenging in the face of rising demand across a range of modes. 

Figure 19: Leading Indicators of Emissions in 2016
No. Indicator 2015 2016 Average growth p.a. Growth

      (2003-2016) (2015-2016)
1 Road vehicle kilometres travelled
(million vehicle kilometres)
45.0 46.1 0.8% 2.4%
2 Sales of Plug in Grant cars in Scotland  1,298 1,367 - 5.3%
3 Aircraft movements 480,070 481,334 1.7% 0.3%
4 UK transport emissions (excl. IAS) (MtCO2e)  118.8 119.8 -0.4% 0.9%
5 UK domestic road fuel consumption by transport (million tonnes) 35.738 36.600 -0.5% 2.4%
6 Average CO2/km of petrol cars registered for the first time 127.9 123.8 2003 Data Unavailable -3.2%
7 Average CO2/km of diesel cars registered  for the first time 122.0 119.2 2003 Data Unavailable -2.3%





Growth
8 Scottish year-on-year GVA growth (to Q1 2017) - - - 0.6%
9 Scottish year-on-year change in a) petrol and b) diesel prices (July 16 - July 17) - NOMINAL       a) 2.2%
b) 2.4%

Sources: 1,2: Department for Transport; 3: Civil Aviation Authority; 4-7: Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy; 8: The Scottish Government; 9: AA Fuel Price Report.