Introduction and Context of Study

To accelerate bus decarbonisation, the UK Government introduced the bus Services (No.2) Act 2025. The Bus Services Act gained Royal Assent on 27 October 2025 and provides new powers for Scottish Ministers to prohibit the registration of new non-zero-emission buses on local services in Scotland from a date no earlier than 2030. This is in line with similar powers available to the Secretary of State in relation to services in England. Through qualitative and quantitative stakeholder questionnaires, this study was aimed at exploring the feasibility of implementing this measure within Scotland (hereafter referred to as ’the proposed measure’).

The proposed measure will reinforce the Scottish Government’s climate change ambitions by setting out the timeline in restricting the use of new non-ZEBs, which will provide more certainty to bus manufacturers and operators in Scotland. Working in collaboration with local authorities and bus operators is crucial to achieving these emissions’ goals and creating a legacy for the future. However, there are uncertainties in the receptiveness and preparedness of the measure from Bus Operators (BOs) and Local Transport Authorities (LTAs) in the Scottish context. Transport Scotland (TS) therefore commissioned Sweco UK to undertake a market analysis study on the feasibility of a similar measure in Scotland by interviewing Scottish BOs and LTAs.

The purpose of this study was to enable Scottish regulatory development in relation to climate change, local manufacturing and the Net Zero transition following the proposed UK Government regulatory measure for buses. The study was aimed at exploring BOs and LTAs preparedness and perspectives on the proposed measure as well as understanding the demand for electric buses over the next five years. The surveys broadly covered the four themes shown on Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: Overarching themes of the study

Regulatory Approach

To gather views on the upcoming regulations, feasibility of dates and implementation, potential impacts and any exemptions to be considered.

Establish Background

To better understand the existing fleet and assets to provide a baseline. This includes number of depots, availability and capacity of charging infrastructure within the depots, size and detailed composition of fleet.

Decarbonisation Plans

To understand how developed current decarbonisation plans are, and projected timelines for installing infrastructure and fleet replacement. This includes the locations, alongside the types of vehicles they will be purchasing.

Barriers

To understand what the barriers are to purchasing electric vehicles over the next five years, and what would be needed to accelerate current timelines.