Outlook

Outlook

This report presented emissions data for Scotland’s transport sector for 1990-2018. Over this period, the share of Scotland’s total emissions due to transport has grown substantially, meaning the transport sector now plays an increasingly important role in reducing Scotland’s emissions.

The emissions data presented in this report are not published until 18 months after the end of the last year reported, therefore we cannot present any information about Scottish emissions in 2019 at this stage. However, some indicators of Scotland’s transport emissions for 2019 are available.

• ULEV sales. The total number of ULEVs registered in Scotland increased from 11,245 in 2018 to 16.110 in 2019, an increase of 30.2%^[9].
• Efficiency of registered vehicles. The average CO₂ emissions of new car registrations increased from 123.6 g/km in 2018 to 126.5g/km in 2019. However, the average emissions of all cars registered in Scotland fell from 136.5 g/km to 134.5 g/km.^[10]
• Aircraft movements. The number of aircraft movements decreased from 481,000 in 2018 to 477,788 in 2019.^[11]

With the share of Scotland’s total emissions due to transport increasing, it is clear that reducing transport emissions is imperative to Scotland achieving net-zero emissions by 2045. This reduction in transport emissions will need to be led by large reductions in road transport emissions, which made up 68% of Scotland’s total transport emissions in 2018. The Scottish Government’s commitment to phase out the need for new petrol and diesel cars by 2032, and increased take-up of ULEVs, will play an important role to this effect.

The current pandemic and its associated lockdown measures are expected to have an effect on transport emissions in future years. Emissions trends relating to the pandemic will be reported on in the Carbon Account for Transport 2022.