Routes Monitoring and Investment Planning

Overview

Whilst the desire is for the CNA process to be undertaken at the island level, it is essential that the outcomes of each CNA is reconciled into a network-wide or indeed national ‘Routes Monitoring and Investment Planning’ process. We have identified below a number of steps that could be taken to provide Transport Scotland with value for money in undertaking the CNA process and which could be used to inform future routes monitoring and investment planning.

Combining Steps 1-3 of the CNA

Taken together, the outputs of Steps 1-3 of the CNA will provide a benchmark set of route supply and demand indicators. These can be used to support the analysis of need and the generation, development and appraisal of options for each island, as well as wider network planning. They would also be of value in bespoke business cases such as that recently prepared for the redevelopment of Port Ellen, as well as for the operator.

Reflecting the above, these steps should ideally be undertaken for all routes in a single tranche of work, with an annual update programme. This could be presented in an e.g., centrally held PowerBI database. This approach would require some up-front time and effort to establish the database architecture but would considerably simplify regular updates and would also negate the need for such work to be undertaken on individual projects (including individual CNAs). It would also readily inform the evaluation of new investments.

This database could then be drawn on by individual CNAs and for general network planning.

Investment Planning Pipeline

An outline of the potential process to develop an ‘Investment Planning Pipeline’ is set out below and could be further developed if desired: 

  • Undertake baseline CNA for all routes as set out above (steps 1-6).
  • Categorise routes into red / amber / green in terms of ‘potential need for investment’ from a revenue-based option perspective.
  • Undertake a similar red / amber / green review from a capital and asset life expiry (infrastructure and vessels) perspective and align with the route service level.
  • Develop, prioritise and agree an Appraisal / Business Investment Pipeline.
  • For the highest priority items in the pipeline:
    • Undertake a brief scoping exercise to consider, agree and set out the next steps (which should be informed by each CNA).
    • For incremental changes, conclude a single stage business case (if required) and implement the change.
    • For more significant changes:
      • Undertake a ‘Programme Strategic Business Case (SBC)’ (broadly STAG) which considers both infrastructure and the service – this could cover a single route or a mini-network where this is more appropriate.
      • Undertake a ‘Programme Outline Business Case (OBC)’ to determine and agree the preferred package of measures (still at a relatively high level).
      • Undertake more detailed Project OBCs for individual infrastructure investment (e.g., each harbour, vessel), drawing material and an unambiguous and uncontested rationale directly from the Programme SBC and OBC.
      • Undertake Project FBCs for each infrastructure investment once tendered prices have been received.

Routes Monitoring

The Pipeline should ideally be informed by regular route-based monitoring, as follows:

  • Undertake Steps 1-3 of the CNA, ideally annually or at the end of the summer and winter timetable periods.
  • Review the red / amber / green ratings from a service perspective, reflecting any changes over the previous period (whether driven by background change or new investment).
  • Review the red / amber / green ratings from an infrastructure perspective.
  • Review the Investment Planning Pipeline based on the above steps and any feedback obtained from communities through, for example, Ferry User Groups.