Investment plans and scenarios

Baseline Scenario – “Asset Renewal”

  1. Asset life expiry is the primary driver for investment and prioritisation in this draft Long-Term Plan.
  2. The “baseline scenario” sets out the core investment requirement to:
  • renew the fleet and upgrade ports in response to asset age and condition;
  • improve technical and weather reliability when investing in new vessels and port upgrades;
  • improve resilience through an expansion in the major vessel fleet and through increased interoperability of vessels and ports within the major and small vessel fleets.
  1. The objective for vessels is to bring the average fleet age down to around 15 years whilst making improvements in reliability and resilience.
  2. As progress is made with the delivery of the programme, we will be able to look and plan further ahead. The intention is to undertake reviews of assets at their approximate mid-life – this will inform decisions on, for example, planned life extension projects, redeployment of vessels and the planned timing of replacement or disposal. Such reviews would be part of asset management and the results feed into future versions of this Long-Term Plan.
  3. Second hand tonnage will continue to be explored and may present opportunities to accelerate benefits to communities by meeting an interim need when longer-term tonnage is being developed, or may represent a more appropriate provision for the fleet/route. Each case will be considered on its own merits and the Plan adjusted accordingly if appropriate.
  4. The proposals below include references to a number of major port projects identified by CMAL and through initial contact with third party port owners – these are not comprehensive and only reflect the most significant and costly projects based on the information available at this point. As part of the finalisation of this Plan, we will be engaging in more depth with all port owners about their future plans.
  5. This Long-Term Plan is broken down into 4 broad time phases:
  • Phase 1 – projects listed in the IIP for initiation or delivery 2021-2026.
  • Phase 2 – projects for initiation or delivery 2026-2031.
  • Phase 3 – projects for initiation or delivery 2031-2036.
  • Phase 4 – projects for initiation or delivery 2036-2045.

Phase 1 – 2021-2026

  1. The Scottish Government’s Infrastructure Investment Plan in February 2021 set out a series of vessel and port projects that would be taken forward during the 5 years of the IIP from April 2021 to March 2026, in addition to the completion of vessels 801 (MV Glen Sannox) and 802 by Fergusons Marine Port Glasgow:

Replacement vessel projects for:

  • Islay
  • Gourock-Dunoon-Kilcreggan passenger services
  • Up to 7 small vessels for the Clyde & Hebrides network
  • Craignure-Oban
  • Mallaig-Lochboisdale
  • Northern Isles freighters

Major harbour development projects at:

  • Ardrossan
  • Skye Triangle: Uig, Tarbert and Lochmaddy
  • Gourock
  • Lochboisdale
  • Armadale
  • Kennacraig
  • Oban
  1. All of these projects are now underway: either under construction or at various stages of business case development. Given the long lead-times for vessel and port projects, it was always known that a number of these would require further funding for construction beyond the 5-year period of the IIP.
  2. Since the publication of the IIP, decisions have also been taken:
  • to purchase the second hand vessel MV Loch Frisa;
  • to procure 2 rather than 1 new vessels for Islay;
  • to procure 2 more “Islay class” vessels to enable a 2 vessel service on the Uig-Tarbert/Lochmaddy routes in the summer.
  1. In addition, a number of other third party port projects are underway, notably:
  • Craignure – Argyll & Bute Council (ABC) are working towards an Outline Business Case for a major redevelopment of the existing port which is reaching asset life expiry.
  • Dunoon and Kilcreggan – As part of the replacement vessels project being led by CMAL, ABC are developing designs to accommodate future vessels for services to Gourock.
  1. The delivery of new vessels during Phase 1 will also enable an increase in the resilience of the major vessel fleet through:
  • As a priority, the retention of a major CHFS vessel following the delivery of new tonnage to provide network resilience; although remaining part of the CHFS fleet, this increased fleet size should also provide a potential option for responding to an unplanned outage on the NIFS network;
  • The deployment of 2 vessels, in summer, on the Uig-Tarbert/Lochmaddy services (“Skye Triangle”). This will strengthen resilience of the services to the Outer Hebrides as a whole (in case of disruption to the services to Stornoway or Barra, for example) and to the wider CHFS and NIFS networks.
  1. These two decisions increase the required number of these major CHFS vessels from 10 to 12 (this would be reviewed once the fleet was renewed, probably when all the 8 major CHFS vessels at or approaching 30 years old have been replaced and the impact on resilience of a modern fleet can be assessed). The “resilience vessel” would be one of the current vessels retained for that purpose and its identity would change over time as replacement vessels enter the fleet and current vessels are made surplus. Therefore, the impact of these decisions on the long-term replacement programme would be for one additional major vessel rather than two; from 10 to 11. Replacements (newbuild or second hand) for 9 of these 11 major vessels will be required within phases 1 and 2 with the final 2 vessel replacements (for Finlaggan and Loch Seaforth) due in phase 4. 8 of these 9 replacements are already at various stages in the investment programme; the successful delivery of all these projects will therefore leave a baseline requirement for one further CHFS major vessel during Phase 2. Following which, excluding the “resilience vessel”, the oldest major vessel in the CHFS fleet would be MV Finlaggan, 20 years old in 2031, and the average age of the major vessel fleet would be approximately 9 years old.
  • 801 (Glen Sannox) and 802 – under construction – delivery in 2023 and 2024
  • 2 new vessels for Islay – under construction – delivery in 2024 and 2025
  • 2 additional “Islay design” vessels – under procurement – preferred bidder announced and vessel delivery dates to be confirmed shortly
  • Replacement vessel for Mallaig-Lochboisdale – project in development
  • Future tonnage for Craignure-Oban – project in development.
  1. The consideration of future service and vessel solutions for Craignure-Oban route is being taken forward alongside the Council’s work to replace Craignure pier. Future service options, and the number and size/capacity of vessels and the associated port requirements, are being considered by TS, CFL and CMAL through engagement with the Council and community.
  2. The IIP includes a commitment to a Small Vessel Replacement Programme (SVRP), reflecting the age of many of this type of CHFS ferry, and to replacement passenger ferries for services from Gourock to Dunoon and Kilcreggan, reflecting the reliability and condition of the former rather than strict vessel age.
  3. An Outline Business Case (OBC) for the first phase of SVRP, recommending the number of vessels to be replaced, the type of vessel replacements and the timing of procurements, is expected to be completed in the first half of 2023. Based on the emerging OBC, this draft Plan includes replacements for up to 7 of the oldest vessels in the fleet. Proposed deployment of new and current vessels, associated port works and vessel disposals are being developed for the OBC and will be shared through that programme. The small vessel fleet already benefits from the resilience provided by additional vessels: currently MV Loch Linnhe and MV Loch Bhrusda. We aim to retain these resilience benefits through the replacement programme.
  4. Work on the OBC has identified particular issues with the Oban-Lismore ferry: the current slipway at Oban is unsuitable for any vessel larger than the current Loch Class vessels and even these vessels are not well-suited to the slipway, causing extensive wear and tear to the vessel’s ramp, and there is no permanent overnight berth at Oban, which is an issue for overnight charging. The Ferries Plan included a proposal to work towards a single passenger and vehicle crossing from Point to Port Appin, which is the shorter of the two crossings to Lismore, recognising that the delivery of this long-term proposal would require considerable improvements to port infrastructure, public transport and road links. Given the passage of time, we intend to review the Ferries Plan proposal in partnership with Argyll & Bute Council, as the responsible local authority as well as the provider of the current Point to Port Appin passenger ferry service, and in consultation with the Lismore and Appin communities. This will be undertaken as part of our work on refreshed community needs assessments for the ICP, with the conclusions informing the design of future services, vessels and port infrastructure.
  5. The Gourock-Dunoon/Kilcreggan vessel replacement project is also moving towards the completion of an OBC following the conclusion of a refreshed assessment of community needs and service options through the Islands Connectivity Plan. The community needs assessments for Cowal (Dunoon) and Roseneath (Kilcreggan) are being prioritised due to the link to this vessel replacement project and are due to be completed in early 2023.
  6. Other than these routes, passenger-only vessels have not featured in recent service provision under the CHFS and NIFS contracts. With an increased focus on public transport, there may be the potential for services elsewhere on the network which complement vehicle ferry services and offer increased connectivity. Such options and opportunities would be identified during the course of community needs assessments under ICP.
  7. A CMAL-led project to replace the 2 Northern Isles freight vessels with an improved design, adding capacity and reducing passage time, and potentially adding some flexible passenger-carrying capacity, is now at the design stage and moving towards the submission of an Outline Business Case.
  8. A number of major port projects are expected to conclude or significantly progress during Phase 1: Tarbert, Lochmaddy, Uig, Troon enabling works, Islay enabling works, and Ardrossan. Other CMAL port projects are under development: the most significant of these projects (in terms of scale) are Gourock terminal redevelopment, Port Ellen terminal redevelopment and Gasay (Lochboisdale) port construction.
  9. During Phase 1 we also propose to commence a number of new projects, in addition to those listed in the IIP, to ensure that later phases of this draft Plan are on track:
  • Small Vessel Replacement Programme Phase 2, including consideration of future vessels for Mallaig-Armadale
  • Small Isles vessel replacement project
  • CHFS major vessel replacement project for MV Hebrides
  • NIFS ro-pax replacement project for MVs Hrossey, Hjaltland and Hamnavoe

Phase 2 – 2026-2031

  1. Phase 2 will require significant further investment planning and delivery of vessels and ports on the CHFS and NIFS networks. Based on an assumed vessel operating life of 30-years on these networks, plans would include:
  • Completion of Phase 1 and much of Phase 2 of the CHFS Small Vessel Replacement Programme.
  • Replacement of the 2 NIFS freighters.
  • Completion of the renewal of the CHFS major vessel fleet including vessels for Craignure-Oban and Mallaig-Lochboisdale.
  • New tonnage for the Small Isles.
  • Port enabling works associated with the above vessel projects.
  • Significant CMAL port projects at Armadale, Oban and Castlebay in addition to the completion of those projects commenced during Phase 1.
  • Development/procurement of replacements for the 3 NIFS ro-pax vessels.
  • Planning for the replacement of CHFS “medium” vessels (see below).
  1. SVRP will continue into a Phase 2, with the objective of replacing a further series of small vessels including that serving the Sound of Harris.
  2. Two large ro-pax vessels, MVs Hrossey and Hjaltland, serving Shetland and Orkney from Aberdeen, will be 30 years old in 2032 and the MV Hamnavoe, serving Orkney across the Pentland Firth, will reach that age a year later. Work on planning for and procuring their replacements will commence during Phase 1 with a view to the delivery of new tonnage in Phase 3. This will include engagement with the Orkney and Shetland communities and liaison with the 4 port owners.
  3. The Small Isles vessel, MV Lochnevis, was built in 2000 and therefore due for replacement during Phase 2. There is an outstanding proposal in the Ferries Plan for a change to the number and type of vessels serving the Small Isles which was not taken forward following further engagement with the communities. Work on replacement tonnage will therefore follow the conclusion of a refreshed assessment of community needs and service options through the Islands Connectivity Plan. This project is scheduled for initiation in Phase 1 and will include engagement with the 4 Small Isles communities and liaison with the port owners.
  4. The current assumption is that timing of major port works by CMAL at Coll and Tiree will be after the delivery of the CHFS major vessel projects initiated in Phase 1. This points towards the final vessel in the series being one that can serve those communities reliably in the meantime as well as the retention of suitable overall cover within the fleet. However, this should be considered alongside the timing, feasibility and affordability of port investment options at Coll and Tiree.
  5. During Phases 2 and 3, replacements for a number of “medium” CHFS vessels will be required for:
  • Mallaig-Armadale, currently served by MV Loch Fyne (1991) and MV Coruisk (2003)
  • Wemyss Bay – Rothesay, current served by MVs Bute (2005), Argyle (2007) and (winter relief) Coruisk;
  • MV Loch Frisa (2015, into service on CHFS 2022) recently introduced to the Craignure-Oban service alongside the major vessel MV Isle of Mull (1988).
  1. These 3 routes share some characteristics that distinguish them from both the major vessels and small vessels used on CHFS both now and as planned for the future. They are all in more sheltered waters, which is reflected in the vessel classification requirements, and are also relatively short crossings of less than an hour with high volumes of passenger and vehicle traffic particularly in summer. Whilst future service requirements for each of these routes will be examined through community needs assessments under ICP, the potential for a class of vessel suitable for these routes, but potentially with wider resilience benefits beyond these locations, is one we consider worth exploring. The initial decision point for this will be the replacement tonnage required for Craignure-Oban (see above).
  2. Due to approaching asset life expiry, a number of the major port renewal projects being led by CMAL and listed in the IIP will require delivery during Phase 2, notably Lochboisdale, Armadale and Kennacraig. Major investment at Oban harbour is also anticipated to be taken forward during Phase 2 following the completion of planning work which will be initiated during Phase 1.

Phase 3 – 2031-2036

  1. The 5 years from 2031-2036 will require further significant investments, again based on an assumed operating life of 30 years on these networks:
  • Delivery of replacements for the 3 NIFS ro-pax vessels.
  • Replacement of CHFS “medium” vessels including replacement tonnage for the Wemyss Bay-Rothesay route to Bute
  • Replacement of the MV Loch Shira, currently serving Cumbrae, potentially as part of a third phase of the Small Vessel Replacement Programme
  • Significant CMAL port projects at Colonsay and Coll and completion of projects commenced during Phase 2.
  • Comhairle nan Eilean Siar has indicated that works are anticipated to be required to the port infrastructure supporting the Sound of Barra and Sound of Harris services around this time, subject to a fuller assessment.
  • Mallaig Harbour Authority (MHA) has indicated that significant works will be required to the port assets supporting ferry services; MHA has published ambitious proposals for the future development of the port which would include improved facilities for ferry services.
  • Planning of “life extension” projects.
  1. As they approach normal working life expiry, replacements will be procured to replace the MV Loch Shira serving Cumbrae, the 3 hybrid vessels introduced in the last decade and the smallest vessel in the fleet, MV Carvoria, which provides the short crossing to Kerrera.
  2. Other CMAL major ports scheduled for major investment due to advancing age during Phases 3 and 4 are Coll, Tiree, Colonsay and Wemyss Bay. The planning and delivery of these projects will need to be considered alongside vessel replacement plans but also to support network resilience through the flexible deployment of the future fleets.
  3. During Phases 3 and 4 of this Plan, we will explore vessel life extension projects to smooth the future investment programme and also, in line with commercial and technical feasibility, enable the conversion of vessels to zero/low emission technology.

Phase 4 – 2036-2045

  1. The final decade of the proposed “baseline” Plan would see:
  • Continued replacement of vessels as they reach operational life expiry including MVs Finlaggan and Loch Seaforth.
  • Significant port work at Tiree and the completion of projects commenced during Phase 3.
  • Lerwick Port Authority has indicated that the main port assets used by the NIFS ferry service will be required during this Phase.
  • Life extension options planned in for mid-life of vessels.
  • Decarbonisation requirements ahead of 2045 – including those vessels delivered and/or procured in the 2020s.
  • The commencement of planning for the replacement of the vessels now due for delivery in the early 2020s.
  1. Phase 4 would see the replacement of MVs Finlaggan (2011) and MV Loch Seaforth (2014). Alongside this – although subject to analysis and decisions closer to the time – we envisage a number of the major vessels (from either or both networks) delivered in the 2020s undergoing “life extension”: this would help smooth the future investment programme and also provide the opportunity for retrofitting of zero emission propulsion – subject to technical and commercial feasibility.

Future Scenario – “Service / Asset Enhancement”

  1. Whilst the “baseline scenario” above sets out the core investment requirement, there are a number of opportunities to enhance the networks during the life of this Long-Term Plan that have been identified for further consideration. Some have already been indicated in this draft Plan:
  • Resilience vessel for the CHFS major vessel fleet
  • Two vessel summer service on the Skye Triangle
  • Enhanced freight vessels for the Northern Isles, including the option of having some passenger carrying capacity
  • Potential three vessel service on Craignure-Oban.
  1. Other potential enhancements to services, with implications for the future investment programme set out in the final version of this Long-Term Plan, are expected to be identified through:
  • Responses to the consultation on this draft Plan;
  • The outcomes of the community needs assessments including updated demand forecasts;
  • Impact assessments;
  • Consultation undertaken as part of STPR2.
  1. Any proposed enhancement will be subject to VFM and affordability. Due to the scale of investment needed to deliver the “baseline scenario”, the opportunity to implement some of these enhancements is likely to come in the longer-term, once the significant investment identified for the next decade to maintain the current network of services has been secured – see also the section on Investment Prioritisation, above.
  2. The final version of the Long-Term Plan will also revisit proposals set out in the Ferries Plan but not taken forward (see para 19). These will be reconsidered through the Community Needs Assessments to be conducted as part of work on the ICP:
  • Lismore (see para 75)
  • Colonsay
  • Small Isles (see para 66)
  1. Other potential enhancement options that have been identified during earlier appraisal work, including for STPR2, include:
  • 2 vessel service for Stornoway-Ullapool
  • Fixed link or increased service frequency on Sound of Harris
  • Fixed link or increased service frequency on Sound of Barra
  • Claonaig port major upgrade to allow year round service from Kintyre to Arran
  • Relocation of Islay mainland port to reduce crossing times and increase service frequencies
  • Mull connectivity including potential fixed link options (including at Corran narrows).
  1. Although we aim to finalise this Long-Term Plan in 2023, the intention is that it is reviewed and updated every 5 years so that there is always a 20-25 year forward look. However it also intended that the Plan is refreshed every 2-3 years to reflect changes – recognising that this Plan is dynamic not static – see the above section of this draft Plan on “Monitoring and Review”.