Appendix E Detailed annual and cumulative costs
Table E.1 to Table E.14 show the detailed annual and cumulative costs for each aspect of the analysis and for each Scenario.
Table E.1 Undiscounted annual costs: 2010/11 to 2020/21
|
Item
|
Year
|
|
2010/11
|
11/12
|
12/13
|
13/14
|
14/15
|
15/16
|
16/17
|
17/18
|
18/19
|
19/20
|
20/21
|
|
Total Agency Costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Base case
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
|
Scenario 2: 20% cut
|
114
|
114
|
114
|
114
|
114
|
114
|
114
|
114
|
114
|
114
|
114
|
|
Scenario 3: 40% cut
|
85
|
85
|
85
|
85
|
85
|
85
|
85
|
85
|
85
|
85
|
85
|
|
Vehicle operating costs due to surface condition deterioration (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,294
|
4,345
|
4,395
|
4,446
|
4,515
|
4,585
|
4,654
|
4,723
|
4,784
|
4,844
|
4,905
|
|
Scenario 2: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,294
|
4,348
|
4,403
|
4,457
|
4,530
|
4,603
|
4,676
|
4,749
|
4,813
|
4,878
|
4,942
|
|
Scenario 3: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,294
|
4,351
|
4,407
|
4,464
|
4,539
|
4,615
|
4,690
|
4,766
|
4,833
|
4,900
|
4,967
|
|
Increase in travel time costs due to surface conditions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Travel time costs
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
24
|
24
|
|
Scenario 2: Travel time costs
|
21
|
22
|
22
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
26
|
27
|
27
|
28
|
29
|
|
Scenario 3: Travel time costs
|
21
|
22
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
26
|
28
|
29
|
30
|
31
|
33
|
|
Skid resistance analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Accident costs
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
|
Scenario 2: Accidents costs
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
|
Scenario 3: Accident costs
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
25
|
25
|
26
|
26
|
27
|
|
Delay costs at (carriageway) roadworks (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Delay costs
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
|
Scenario 2: Delay costs
|
9
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
|
Scenario 3: Delay costs
|
9
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
Lighting analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
|
Scenario 2: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
|
Scenario 3: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
|
CO2 Emissions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: CO2 costs
|
320
|
327
|
334
|
341
|
348
|
354
|
361
|
368
|
374
|
380
|
386
|
|
Scenario 2: CO2 costs
|
320
|
326
|
333
|
340
|
346
|
353
|
359
|
365
|
371
|
377
|
383
|
|
Scenario 3: CO2 costs
|
319
|
326
|
333
|
339
|
345
|
351
|
358
|
364
|
369
|
375
|
381
|
Table E.2 Undiscounted annual costs: 2021/22 to 2030/31
|
Item
|
Year
|
|
2021/22
|
22/23
|
23/24
|
24/25
|
25/26
|
26/27
|
27/28
|
28/29
|
29/30
|
30/31
|
|
Total Agency Costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Base case
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
141
|
|
Scenario 2: 20% cut
|
119
|
125
|
130
|
136
|
141
|
145
|
149
|
152
|
156
|
160
|
|
Scenario 3: 40% cut
|
97
|
108
|
119
|
130
|
141
|
145
|
149
|
152
|
156
|
160
|
|
Vehicle operating costs due to surface condition deterioration (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,960
|
5,015
|
5,070
|
5,125
|
5,180
|
5,241
|
5,302
|
5,363
|
5,425
|
5,486
|
|
Scenario 2: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,998
|
5,053
|
5,109
|
5,164
|
5,220
|
5,279
|
5,338
|
5,398
|
5,457
|
5,516
|
|
Scenario 3: Vehicle operating costs
|
5,023
|
5,079
|
5,135
|
5,191
|
5,247
|
5,304
|
5,362
|
5,420
|
5,478
|
5,535
|
|
Increase in travel time costs due to surface conditions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Travel time costs
|
24
|
25
|
25
|
26
|
26
|
26
|
27
|
27
|
28
|
28
|
|
Scenario 2: Travel time costs
|
30
|
30
|
31
|
32
|
32
|
33
|
33
|
33
|
34
|
34
|
|
Scenario 3: Travel time costs
|
33
|
34
|
35
|
36
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
38
|
38
|
|
Skid resistance analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Accident costs
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
|
Scenario 2: Accidents costs
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
|
Scenario 3: Accident costs
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
|
Delay costs at (carriageway) roadworks (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Delay costs
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
|
Scenario 2: Delay costs
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
|
Scenario 3: Delay costs
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
|
Lighting analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
|
Scenario 2: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
|
Scenario 3: Lighting accident costs
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
|
CO2 Emissions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: CO2 costs
|
392
|
399
|
405
|
411
|
418
|
426
|
435
|
444
|
452
|
459
|
|
Scenario 2: CO2 costs
|
389
|
395
|
402
|
408
|
414
|
423
|
432
|
440
|
449
|
456
|
|
Scenario 3: CO2 costs
|
387
|
393
|
400
|
406
|
412
|
421
|
430
|
439
|
447
|
454
|
Table E.3 Undiscounted annual costs compared to Base Case: 2010/11 to 2020/21
|
Item
|
Year
|
|
2010/11
|
11/12
|
12/13
|
13/14
|
14/15
|
15/16
|
16/17
|
17/18
|
18/19
|
19/20
|
20/21
|
|
Total Agency Costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Base case
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Scenario 2: 20% cut
|
-28
|
-28
|
-28
|
-28
|
-28
|
-28
|
-28
|
-28
|
-28
|
-28
|
-28
|
|
Scenario 3: 40% cut
|
-56
|
-56
|
-56
|
-56
|
-56
|
-56
|
-56
|
-56
|
-56
|
-56
|
-56
|
|
Vehicle operating costs due to surface condition deterioration (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Vehicle operating costs
|
0
|
51
|
101
|
152
|
221
|
291
|
360
|
429
|
490
|
550
|
611
|
|
Scenario 2: Vehicle operating costs
|
0
|
54
|
109
|
163
|
236
|
309
|
382
|
455
|
519
|
584
|
648
|
|
Scenario 3: Vehicle operating costs
|
0
|
57
|
113
|
170
|
245
|
321
|
396
|
472
|
539
|
606
|
673
|
|
Increase in travel time costs due to surface conditions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Travel time costs
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
|
Scenario 2: Travel time costs
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
|
Scenario 3: Travel time costs
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
12
|
|
Skid resistance analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Accident costs
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Scenario 2: Accidents costs
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Scenario 3: Accident costs
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
|
Delay costs at (carriageway) roadworks (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Delay costs
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
-1
|
-0
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-2
|
|
Scenario 2: Delay costs
|
0
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
|
Scenario 3: Delay costs
|
0
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-5
|
-4
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
|
Lighting analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Lighting accident costs
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Scenario 2: Lighting accident costs
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Scenario 3: Lighting accident costs
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
CO2 Emissions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: CO2 costs
|
0
|
7
|
14
|
21
|
28
|
34
|
41
|
48
|
54
|
60
|
66
|
|
Scenario 2: CO2 costs
|
-0
|
6
|
13
|
20
|
26
|
32
|
39
|
45
|
51
|
57
|
63
|
|
Scenario 3: CO2 costs
|
-1
|
6
|
12
|
19
|
25
|
31
|
37
|
44
|
49
|
55
|
61
|
Table E.4 Undiscounted annual costs compared to Base Case: 2021/22 to 2030/31
|
Item
|
Year
|
|
2021/22
|
22/23
|
23/24
|
24/25
|
25/26
|
26/27
|
27/28
|
28/29
|
29/30
|
30/31
|
|
Total Agency Costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Base case
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Scenario 2: 20% cut
|
-22
|
-17
|
-11
|
-6
|
0
|
4
|
7
|
11
|
15
|
19
|
|
Scenario 3: 40% cut
|
-45
|
-34
|
-22
|
-11
|
0
|
4
|
7
|
11
|
15
|
19
|
|
Vehicle operating costs due to surface condition deterioration (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Vehicle operating costs
|
666
|
721
|
776
|
831
|
886
|
947
|
1,008
|
1,069
|
1,131
|
1,192
|
|
Scenario 2: Vehicle operating costs
|
704
|
759
|
815
|
870
|
926
|
985
|
1,044
|
1,104
|
1,163
|
1,222
|
|
Scenario 3: Vehicle operating costs
|
729
|
785
|
841
|
897
|
953
|
1,010
|
1,068
|
1,126
|
1,184
|
1,241
|
|
Increase in travel time costs due to surface conditions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Travel time costs
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
|
Scenario 2: Travel time costs
|
9
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
11
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
13
|
13
|
|
Scenario 3: Travel time costs
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
17
|
|
Skid resistance analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Accident costs
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Scenario 2: Accidents costs
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Scenario 3: Accident costs
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Delay costs at (carriageway) roadworks (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Delay costs
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
|
Scenario 2: Delay costs
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-1
|
-1
|
|
Scenario 3: Delay costs
|
-4
|
-4
|
-3
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-1
|
-1
|
|
Lighting analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Lighting accident costs
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Scenario 2: Lighting accident costs
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Scenario 3: Lighting accident costs
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
CO2 Emissions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: CO2 costs
|
72
|
79
|
85
|
91
|
98
|
106
|
115
|
123
|
132
|
139
|
|
Scenario 2: CO2 costs
|
69
|
75
|
82
|
88
|
94
|
103
|
112
|
120
|
129
|
136
|
|
Scenario 3: CO2 costs
|
67
|
73
|
80
|
86
|
92
|
101
|
110
|
118
|
127
|
134
|
Table E.5 Cumulative undiscounted costs: 2010/11 to 2020/21
|
Item
|
Year
|
|
2010/11
|
11/12
|
12/13
|
13/14
|
14/15
|
15/16
|
16/17
|
17/18
|
18/19
|
19/20
|
20/21
|
|
Total Agency Costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Base case
|
141
|
283
|
424
|
566
|
707
|
849
|
990
|
1,132
|
1,273
|
1,414
|
1,556
|
|
Scenario 2: 20% cut
|
114
|
228
|
341
|
455
|
569
|
683
|
797
|
910
|
1,024
|
1,138
|
1,252
|
|
Scenario 3: 40% cut
|
85
|
171
|
256
|
341
|
427
|
512
|
597
|
683
|
768
|
854
|
939
|
|
Vehicle operating costs due to surface condition deterioration (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,294
|
8,639
|
13,034
|
17,480
|
21,996
|
26,580
|
31,234
|
35,958
|
40,742
|
45,586
|
50,491
|
|
Scenario 2: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,294
|
8,642
|
13,045
|
17,502
|
22,032
|
26,635
|
31,311
|
36,060
|
40,873
|
45,751
|
50,693
|
|
Scenario 3: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,294
|
8,645
|
13,052
|
17,516
|
22,056
|
26,671
|
31,361
|
36,127
|
40,960
|
45,860
|
50,827
|
|
Increase in travel time costs due to surface conditions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Travel time costs
|
21
|
42
|
64
|
85
|
107
|
129
|
152
|
175
|
199
|
222
|
246
|
|
Scenario 2: Travel time costs
|
21
|
43
|
65
|
88
|
112
|
137
|
162
|
189
|
216
|
245
|
274
|
|
Scenario 3: Travel time costs
|
21
|
43
|
66
|
90
|
115
|
141
|
169
|
198
|
228
|
259
|
292
|
|
Skid resistance analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Accident costs
|
23
|
45
|
68
|
91
|
113
|
136
|
159
|
181
|
204
|
227
|
249
|
|
Scenario 2: Accidents costs
|
23
|
45
|
68
|
91
|
113
|
136
|
159
|
181
|
204
|
227
|
249
|
|
Scenario 3: Accident costs
|
23
|
46
|
69
|
92
|
116
|
141
|
165
|
191
|
216
|
243
|
270
|
|
Delay costs at (carriageway) roadworks (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Delay costs
|
9
|
17
|
26
|
35
|
44
|
52
|
60
|
68
|
75
|
82
|
89
|
|
Scenario 2: Delay costs
|
9
|
15
|
21
|
27
|
34
|
39
|
45
|
50
|
55
|
60
|
65
|
|
Scenario 3: Delay costs
|
9
|
13
|
18
|
23
|
28
|
32
|
37
|
41
|
44
|
48
|
52
|
|
Lighting analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
17
|
25
|
34
|
42
|
50
|
59
|
67
|
76
|
84
|
93
|
|
Scenario 2: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
17
|
25
|
34
|
42
|
51
|
59
|
68
|
76
|
85
|
93
|
|
Scenario 3: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
17
|
26
|
34
|
43
|
51
|
60
|
69
|
77
|
86
|
94
|
|
CO2 Emissions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: CO2 costs
|
320
|
647
|
981
|
1,322
|
1,670
|
2,025
|
2,386
|
2,753
|
3,127
|
3,507
|
3,893
|
|
Scenario 2: CO2 costs
|
320
|
646
|
979
|
1,319
|
1,665
|
2,018
|
2,377
|
2,742
|
3,113
|
3,490
|
3,873
|
|
Scenario 3: CO2 costs
|
319
|
646
|
978
|
1,317
|
1,662
|
2,014
|
2,371
|
2,735
|
3,104
|
3,479
|
3,860
|
Table E.6 Cumulative undiscounted costs: 2021/22 to 2030/31
|
Item
|
Year
|
|
2021/22
|
22/23
|
23/24
|
24/25
|
25/26
|
26/27
|
27/28
|
28/29
|
29/30
|
30/31
|
|
Total Agency Costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Base case
|
1,697
|
1,839
|
1,980
|
2,122
|
2,263
|
2,405
|
2,546
|
2,687
|
2,829
|
2,970
|
|
Scenario 2: 20% cut
|
1,371
|
1,496
|
1,626
|
1,762
|
1,904
|
2,049
|
2,197
|
2,350
|
2,506
|
2,666
|
|
Scenario 3: 40% cut
|
1,035
|
1,143
|
1,262
|
1,392
|
1,534
|
1,679
|
1,828
|
1,980
|
2,136
|
2,296
|
|
Vehicle operating costs due to surface condition deterioration (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Vehicle operating costs
|
55,451
|
60,466
|
65,536
|
70,661
|
75,842
|
81,083
|
86,385
|
91,749
|
97,173
|
102,659
|
|
Scenario 2: Vehicle operating costs
|
55,691
|
60,744
|
65,853
|
71,017
|
76,237
|
81,517
|
86,855
|
92,253
|
97,710
|
103,226
|
|
Scenario 3: Vehicle operating costs
|
55,851
|
60,930
|
66,065
|
71,255
|
76,502
|
81,806
|
87,169
|
92,588
|
98,066
|
103,602
|
|
Increase in travel time costs due to surface conditions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Travel time costs
|
271
|
296
|
321
|
346
|
372
|
399
|
425
|
453
|
481
|
509
|
|
Scenario 2: Travel time costs
|
304
|
334
|
366
|
397
|
430
|
462
|
495
|
528
|
562
|
596
|
|
Scenario 3: Travel time costs
|
326
|
360
|
395
|
430
|
467
|
504
|
541
|
578
|
616
|
654
|
|
Skid resistance analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Accident costs
|
272
|
295
|
317
|
340
|
363
|
385
|
408
|
431
|
453
|
476
|
|
Scenario 2: Accidents costs
|
272
|
295
|
317
|
340
|
363
|
385
|
408
|
431
|
453
|
476
|
|
Scenario 3: Accident costs
|
296
|
321
|
345
|
369
|
391
|
414
|
437
|
460
|
482
|
505
|
|
Delay costs at (carriageway) roadworks (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Delay costs
|
97
|
104
|
111
|
119
|
126
|
133
|
140
|
147
|
154
|
162
|
|
Scenario 2: Delay costs
|
71
|
76
|
82
|
89
|
95
|
102
|
108
|
115
|
122
|
130
|
|
Scenario 3: Delay costs
|
56
|
61
|
66
|
73
|
79
|
86
|
92
|
99
|
106
|
114
|
|
Lighting analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Lighting accident costs
|
101
|
109
|
118
|
126
|
135
|
143
|
151
|
160
|
168
|
177
|
|
Scenario 2: Lighting accident costs
|
102
|
110
|
119
|
127
|
136
|
144
|
153
|
161
|
170
|
178
|
|
Scenario 3: Lighting accident costs
|
103
|
112
|
120
|
129
|
137
|
146
|
154
|
163
|
171
|
179
|
|
CO2 Emissions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: CO2 costs
|
4,286
|
4,685
|
5,090
|
5,501
|
5,919
|
6,345
|
6,780
|
7,224
|
7,676
|
8,135
|
|
Scenario 2: CO2 costs
|
4,262
|
4,657
|
5,059
|
5,467
|
5,881
|
6,304
|
6,736
|
7,176
|
7,625
|
8,081
|
|
Scenario 3: CO2 costs
|
4,247
|
4,640
|
5,040
|
5,446
|
5,858
|
6,279
|
6,709
|
7,148
|
7,595
|
8,050
|
Table E.7 Discounted annual costs: 2010/11 to 2020/21
|
Item
|
Year
|
|
2010/11
|
11/12
|
12/13
|
13/14
|
14/15
|
15/16
|
16/17
|
17/18
|
18/19
|
19/20
|
20/21
|
|
Total Agency Costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Base case
|
141
|
137
|
132
|
128
|
123
|
119
|
115
|
111
|
107
|
104
|
100
|
|
Scenario 2: 20% cut
|
114
|
110
|
106
|
103
|
99
|
96
|
93
|
89
|
86
|
84
|
81
|
|
Scenario 3: 40% cut
|
85
|
82
|
80
|
77
|
74
|
72
|
69
|
67
|
65
|
63
|
61
|
|
Vehicle operating costs due to surface condition deterioration (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,294
|
4,198
|
4,103
|
4,010
|
3,935
|
3,860
|
3,786
|
3,712
|
3,633
|
3,555
|
3,477
|
|
Scenario 2: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,294
|
4,201
|
4,110
|
4,020
|
3,948
|
3,876
|
3,804
|
3,733
|
3,655
|
3,579
|
3,504
|
|
Scenario 3: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,294
|
4,204
|
4,114
|
4,026
|
3,956
|
3,886
|
3,816
|
3,746
|
3,670
|
3,595
|
3,521
|
|
Increase in travel time costs due to surface conditions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Travel time costs
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
|
Scenario 2: Travel time costs
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
|
Scenario 3: Travel time costs
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
|
Skid resistance analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Accident costs
|
23
|
22
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
18
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
|
Scenario 2: Accidents costs
|
23
|
22
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
18
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
|
Scenario 3: Accident costs
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
|
Delay costs at (carriageway) roadworks (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Delay costs
|
9
|
8
|
9
|
8
|
8
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
|
Scenario 2: Delay costs
|
9
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
|
Scenario 3: Delay costs
|
9
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
|
Lighting analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
|
Scenario 2: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
|
Scenario 3: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
|
CO2 Emissions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: CO2 costs
|
320
|
316
|
312
|
308
|
303
|
298
|
294
|
289
|
284
|
279
|
274
|
|
Scenario 2: CO2 costs
|
320
|
315
|
311
|
307
|
302
|
297
|
292
|
287
|
282
|
276
|
271
|
|
Scenario 3: CO2 costs
|
319
|
315
|
310
|
306
|
301
|
296
|
291
|
286
|
280
|
275
|
270
|
Table E.8 Discounted annual costs: 2021/22 to 2030/31
|
Item
|
Year
|
|
2021/22
|
22/23
|
23/24
|
24/25
|
25/26
|
26/27
|
27/28
|
28/29
|
29/30
|
30/31
|
|
Total Agency Costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Base case
|
97
|
94
|
90
|
87
|
84
|
82
|
79
|
76
|
74
|
71
|
|
Scenario 2: 20% cut
|
82
|
83
|
83
|
84
|
84
|
84
|
83
|
82
|
81
|
80
|
|
Scenario 3: 40% cut
|
66
|
71
|
76
|
80
|
84
|
84
|
83
|
82
|
81
|
80
|
|
Vehicle operating costs due to surface condition deterioration (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Vehicle operating costs
|
3,397
|
3,319
|
3,242
|
3,166
|
3,092
|
3,023
|
2,955
|
2,887
|
2,822
|
2,757
|
|
Scenario 2: Vehicle operating costs
|
3,423
|
3,344
|
3,267
|
3,190
|
3,116
|
3,045
|
2,975
|
2,906
|
2,839
|
2,772
|
|
Scenario 3: Vehicle operating costs
|
3,441
|
3,361
|
3,283
|
3,207
|
3,132
|
3,059
|
2,988
|
2,918
|
2,849
|
2,782
|
|
Increase in travel time costs due to surface conditions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Travel time costs
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
14
|
|
Scenario 2: Travel time costs
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
17
|
|
Scenario 3: Travel time costs
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
|
Skid resistance analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Accident costs
|
16
|
15
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
11
|
|
Scenario 2: Accidents costs
|
16
|
15
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
11
|
|
Scenario 3: Accident costs
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
11
|
|
Delay costs at (carriageway) roadworks (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Delay costs
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
Scenario 2: Delay costs
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
Scenario 3: Delay costs
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
Lighting analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Lighting accident costs
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
|
Scenario 2: Lighting accident costs
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
|
Scenario 3: Lighting accident costs
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
|
CO2 Emissions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: CO2 costs
|
269
|
264
|
259
|
254
|
249
|
246
|
242
|
239
|
235
|
231
|
|
Scenario 2: CO2 costs
|
266
|
262
|
257
|
252
|
247
|
244
|
241
|
237
|
234
|
229
|
|
Scenario 3: CO2 costs
|
265
|
260
|
256
|
251
|
246
|
243
|
240
|
236
|
233
|
228
|
Table E.9 Discounted annual costs compared to Base Case: 2010/11 to 2020/21
|
Item
|
Year
|
|
2010/11
|
11/12
|
12/13
|
13/14
|
14/15
|
15/16
|
16/17
|
17/18
|
18/19
|
19/20
|
20/21
|
|
Total Agency Costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Base case
|
0
|
-5
|
-9
|
-14
|
-18
|
-22
|
-26
|
-30
|
-34
|
-38
|
-41
|
|
Scenario 2: 20% cut
|
-28
|
-31
|
-35
|
-39
|
-42
|
-46
|
-49
|
-52
|
-55
|
-58
|
-61
|
|
Scenario 3: 40% cut
|
-56
|
-59
|
-62
|
-64
|
-67
|
-70
|
-72
|
-74
|
-77
|
-79
|
-81
|
|
Vehicle operating costs due to surface condition deterioration (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Vehicle operating costs
|
0
|
-96
|
-191
|
-284
|
-359
|
-434
|
-508
|
-582
|
-661
|
-740
|
-817
|
|
Scenario 2: Vehicle operating costs
|
0
|
-93
|
-184
|
-274
|
-346
|
-419
|
-490
|
-561
|
-639
|
-715
|
-790
|
|
Scenario 3: Vehicle operating costs
|
0
|
-90
|
-180
|
-268
|
-338
|
-408
|
-478
|
-548
|
-624
|
-699
|
-773
|
|
Increase in travel time costs due to surface conditions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Travel time costs
|
0
|
-1
|
-1
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-4
|
-4
|
|
Scenario 2: Travel time costs
|
0
|
-0
|
-0
|
-0
|
-0
|
-0
|
-0
|
-0
|
-0
|
-0
|
-0
|
|
Scenario 3: Travel time costs
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
|
Skid resistance analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Accident costs
|
0
|
-1
|
-2
|
-2
|
-3
|
-4
|
-4
|
-5
|
-5
|
-6
|
-7
|
|
Scenario 2: Accidents costs
|
0
|
-1
|
-2
|
-2
|
-3
|
-4
|
-4
|
-5
|
-5
|
-6
|
-7
|
|
Scenario 3: Accident costs
|
0
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-2
|
-2
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-4
|
|
Delay costs at (carriageway) roadworks (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Delay costs
|
0
|
-0
|
-0
|
-0
|
-1
|
-2
|
-2
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-4
|
|
Scenario 2: Delay costs
|
0
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-4
|
-4
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
|
Scenario 3: Delay costs
|
0
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-5
|
-5
|
-6
|
-6
|
-6
|
-6
|
|
Lighting analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Lighting accident costs
|
0
|
-0
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
|
Scenario 2: Lighting accident costs
|
0
|
-0
|
-0
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
|
Scenario 3: Lighting accident costs
|
0
|
-0
|
-0
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
-2
|
|
CO2 Emissions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: CO2 costs
|
0
|
-4
|
-8
|
-13
|
-17
|
-22
|
-26
|
-31
|
-36
|
-41
|
-46
|
|
Scenario 2: CO2 costs
|
-0
|
-5
|
-9
|
-14
|
-18
|
-23
|
-28
|
-33
|
-38
|
-44
|
-49
|
|
Scenario 3: CO2 costs
|
-1
|
-5
|
-10
|
-14
|
-19
|
-24
|
-29
|
-34
|
-40
|
-45
|
-50
|
Table E.10 Discounted annual costs compared to Base Case: 2021/22 to 2030/31
|
Item
|
Year
|
|
2021/22
|
22/23
|
23/24
|
24/25
|
25/26
|
26/27
|
27/28
|
28/29
|
29/30
|
30/31
|
|
Total Agency Costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Base case
|
-45
|
-48
|
-51
|
-54
|
-57
|
-60
|
-63
|
-65
|
-68
|
-70
|
|
Scenario 2: 20% cut
|
-60
|
-59
|
-58
|
-57
|
-57
|
-58
|
-59
|
-59
|
-60
|
-61
|
|
Scenario 3: 40% cut
|
-75
|
-70
|
-65
|
-61
|
-57
|
-58
|
-59
|
-59
|
-60
|
-61
|
|
Vehicle operating costs due to surface condition deterioration (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Vehicle operating costs
|
-897
|
-975
|
-1,052
|
-1,128
|
-1,202
|
-1,271
|
-1,340
|
-1,407
|
-1,472
|
-1,537
|
|
Scenario 2: Vehicle operating costs
|
-871
|
-950
|
-1,027
|
-1,104
|
-1,178
|
-1,250
|
-1,319
|
-1,388
|
-1,456
|
-1,522
|
|
Scenario 3: Vehicle operating costs
|
-853
|
-933
|
-1,011
|
-1,087
|
-1,162
|
-1,235
|
-1,306
|
-1,376
|
-1,445
|
-1,512
|
|
Increase in travel time costs due to surface conditions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Travel time costs
|
-4
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-6
|
-6
|
-6
|
-6
|
-7
|
-7
|
|
Scenario 2: Travel time costs
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-2
|
-2
|
-3
|
-3
|
-4
|
-4
|
|
Scenario 3: Travel time costs
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
-0
|
-1
|
-1
|
-2
|
|
Skid resistance analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Accident costs
|
-7
|
-8
|
-8
|
-9
|
-9
|
-10
|
-10
|
-10
|
-11
|
-11
|
|
Scenario 2: Accidents costs
|
-7
|
-8
|
-8
|
-9
|
-9
|
-10
|
-10
|
-10
|
-11
|
-11
|
|
Scenario 3: Accident costs
|
-5
|
-6
|
-7
|
-8
|
-9
|
-10
|
-10
|
-10
|
-11
|
-11
|
|
Delay costs at (carriageway) roadworks (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Delay costs
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
|
Scenario 2: Delay costs
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
|
Scenario 3: Delay costs
|
-6
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
-5
|
|
Lighting analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Lighting accident costs
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
|
Scenario 2: Lighting accident costs
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
|
Scenario 3: Lighting accident costs
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-3
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
|
CO2 Emissions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: CO2 costs
|
-51
|
-56
|
-61
|
-66
|
-71
|
-74
|
-78
|
-81
|
-85
|
-89
|
|
Scenario 2: CO2 costs
|
-54
|
-59
|
-63
|
-68
|
-73
|
-76
|
-80
|
-83
|
-87
|
-91
|
|
Scenario 3: CO2 costs
|
-55
|
-60
|
-65
|
-69
|
-74
|
-77
|
-81
|
-84
|
-87
|
-92
|
Table E.11 Cumulative discounted costs: 2010/11 to 2020/21
|
Item
|
Year
|
|
2010/11
|
11/12
|
12/13
|
13/14
|
14/15
|
15/16
|
16/17
|
17/18
|
18/19
|
19/20
|
20/21
|
|
Total Agency Costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Base case
|
141
|
278
|
410
|
538
|
661
|
780
|
895
|
1,006
|
1,114
|
1,217
|
1,318
|
|
Scenario 2: 20% cut
|
114
|
224
|
330
|
433
|
532
|
628
|
720
|
810
|
896
|
980
|
1,060
|
|
Scenario 3: 40% cut
|
85
|
168
|
247
|
324
|
399
|
471
|
540
|
607
|
672
|
735
|
795
|
|
Vehicle operating costs due to surface condition deterioration (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,294
|
8,492
|
12,595
|
16,605
|
20,540
|
24,400
|
28,186
|
31,899
|
35,532
|
39,086
|
42,563
|
|
Scenario 2: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,294
|
8,495
|
12,605
|
16,625
|
20,573
|
24,448
|
28,252
|
31,985
|
35,640
|
39,219
|
42,723
|
|
Scenario 3: Vehicle operating costs
|
4,294
|
8,498
|
12,612
|
16,638
|
20,594
|
24,480
|
28,296
|
32,041
|
35,712
|
39,307
|
42,829
|
|
Increase in travel time costs due to surface conditions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Travel time costs
|
21
|
42
|
62
|
81
|
100
|
119
|
137
|
155
|
173
|
191
|
208
|
|
Scenario 2: Travel time costs
|
21
|
42
|
63
|
84
|
104
|
125
|
146
|
167
|
188
|
209
|
229
|
|
Scenario 3: Travel time costs
|
21
|
42
|
64
|
85
|
107
|
129
|
152
|
174
|
197
|
220
|
244
|
|
Skid resistance analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Accident costs
|
23
|
45
|
66
|
86
|
106
|
125
|
143
|
161
|
179
|
195
|
211
|
|
Scenario 2: Accidents costs
|
23
|
45
|
66
|
86
|
106
|
125
|
143
|
161
|
179
|
195
|
211
|
|
Scenario 3: Accident costs
|
23
|
45
|
67
|
88
|
109
|
129
|
149
|
169
|
189
|
208
|
227
|
|
Delay costs at (carriageway) roadworks (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Delay costs
|
9
|
17
|
26
|
34
|
42
|
48
|
55
|
61
|
66
|
71
|
76
|
|
Scenario 2: Delay costs
|
9
|
15
|
21
|
26
|
32
|
36
|
41
|
45
|
49
|
53
|
56
|
|
Scenario 3: Delay costs
|
9
|
13
|
18
|
22
|
27
|
30
|
34
|
37
|
39
|
42
|
45
|
|
Lighting analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
17
|
24
|
32
|
39
|
46
|
53
|
60
|
66
|
72
|
78
|
|
Scenario 2: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
17
|
25
|
32
|
40
|
47
|
54
|
60
|
67
|
73
|
79
|
|
Scenario 3: Lighting accident costs
|
8
|
17
|
25
|
33
|
40
|
47
|
54
|
61
|
68
|
74
|
80
|
|
CO2 Emissions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: CO2 costs
|
320
|
636
|
948
|
1,256
|
1,559
|
1,857
|
2,151
|
2,440
|
2,724
|
3,003
|
3,276
|
|
Scenario 2: CO2 costs
|
320
|
635
|
946
|
1,253
|
1,554
|
1,851
|
2,143
|
2,430
|
2,712
|
2,989
|
3,260
|
|
Scenario 3: CO2 costs
|
319
|
634
|
945
|
1,251
|
1,552
|
1,847
|
2,138
|
2,424
|
2,705
|
2,980
|
3,250
|
Table E.12 Cumulative discounted costs: 2021/22 to 2030/31
|
Item
|
Year
|
|
2021/22
|
22/23
|
23/24
|
24/25
|
25/26
|
26/27
|
27/28
|
28/29
|
29/30
|
30/31
|
|
Total Agency Costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Base case
|
1,415
|
1,508
|
1,599
|
1,686
|
1,770
|
1,852
|
1,931
|
2,007
|
2,081
|
2,152
|
|
Scenario 2: 20% cut
|
1,142
|
1,225
|
1,308
|
1,392
|
1,476
|
1,560
|
1,643
|
1,725
|
1,806
|
1,886
|
|
Scenario 3: 40% cut
|
861
|
933
|
1,009
|
1,089
|
1,174
|
1,257
|
1,340
|
1,422
|
1,503
|
1,584
|
|
Vehicle operating costs due to surface condition deterioration (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Vehicle operating costs
|
45,961
|
49,280
|
52,522
|
55,688
|
58,780
|
61,803
|
64,757
|
67,645
|
70,466
|
73,223
|
|
Scenario 2: Vehicle operating costs
|
46,146
|
49,490
|
52,757
|
55,947
|
59,063
|
62,107
|
65,082
|
67,988
|
70,827
|
73,599
|
|
Scenario 3: Vehicle operating costs
|
46,269
|
49,630
|
52,914
|
56,120
|
59,252
|
62,311
|
65,299
|
68,217
|
71,066
|
73,848
|
|
Increase in travel time costs due to surface conditions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Travel time costs
|
224
|
241
|
257
|
273
|
288
|
303
|
318
|
333
|
347
|
362
|
|
Scenario 2: Travel time costs
|
250
|
270
|
290
|
310
|
329
|
348
|
366
|
384
|
401
|
419
|
|
Scenario 3: Travel time costs
|
267
|
289
|
312
|
334
|
355
|
377
|
397
|
417
|
437
|
456
|
|
Skid resistance analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Accident costs
|
227
|
242
|
256
|
270
|
284
|
297
|
310
|
322
|
334
|
345
|
|
Scenario 2: Accidents costs
|
227
|
242
|
256
|
270
|
284
|
297
|
310
|
322
|
334
|
345
|
|
Scenario 3: Accident costs
|
245
|
262
|
277
|
292
|
305
|
318
|
331
|
343
|
355
|
366
|
|
Delay costs at (carriageway) roadworks (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Delay costs
|
81
|
86
|
91
|
95
|
100
|
104
|
107
|
111
|
115
|
119
|
|
Scenario 2: Delay costs
|
60
|
64
|
67
|
71
|
75
|
79
|
83
|
86
|
90
|
94
|
|
Scenario 3: Delay costs
|
48
|
51
|
55
|
58
|
62
|
66
|
70
|
73
|
77
|
81
|
|
Lighting analysis (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: Lighting accident costs
|
84
|
90
|
95
|
100
|
105
|
110
|
115
|
119
|
124
|
128
|
|
Scenario 2: Lighting accident costs
|
85
|
91
|
96
|
101
|
106
|
111
|
116
|
120
|
125
|
129
|
|
Scenario 3: Lighting accident costs
|
86
|
92
|
97
|
102
|
107
|
112
|
117
|
122
|
126
|
130
|
|
CO2 Emissions (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1: CO2 costs
|
3,545
|
3,809
|
4,068
|
4,322
|
4,572
|
4,817
|
5,060
|
5,299
|
5,534
|
5,765
|
|
Scenario 2: CO2 costs
|
3,526
|
3,788
|
4,045
|
4,297
|
4,544
|
4,788
|
5,029
|
5,266
|
5,499
|
5,729
|
|
Scenario 3: CO2 costs
|
3,515
|
3,775
|
4,031
|
4,281
|
4,528
|
4,770
|
5,010
|
5,246
|
5,479
|
5,707
|
Table E.13 Cumulative undiscounted total costs
|
Year
|
Total Road User and Impact Costs (analysed in this study) (£m)
|
Total Transport Cost (Cumulative) - Sum of agency and analysed road user and impact costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1:
Base case
|
Scenario 2:
20% cut
|
Scenario 3:
40% cut
|
Scenario 1:
Base case
|
Scenario 2:
20% cut
|
Scenario 3:
40% cut
|
|
2010/11
|
4,675
|
4,675
|
4,674
|
4,816
|
4,788
|
4,760
|
|
2011/12
|
9,408
|
9,409
|
9,409
|
9,691
|
9,636
|
9,580
|
|
2012/13
|
14,199
|
14,204
|
14,209
|
14,623
|
14,546
|
14,465
|
|
2013/14
|
19,048
|
19,061
|
19,073
|
19,614
|
19,517
|
19,415
|
|
2014/15
|
23,973
|
23,999
|
24,020
|
24,680
|
24,568
|
24,447
|
|
2015/16
|
28,973
|
29,016
|
29,050
|
29,822
|
29,699
|
29,562
|
|
2016/17
|
34,050
|
34,113
|
34,163
|
35,040
|
34,910
|
34,761
|
|
2017/18
|
39,203
|
39,290
|
39,360
|
40,334
|
40,201
|
40,042
|
|
2018/19
|
44,422
|
44,538
|
44,630
|
45,695
|
45,563
|
45,398
|
|
2019/20
|
49,709
|
49,858
|
49,975
|
51,123
|
50,996
|
50,829
|
|
2020/21
|
55,062
|
55,248
|
55,395
|
56,618
|
56,500
|
56,334
|
|
2021/22
|
60,477
|
60,701
|
60,878
|
62,175
|
62,072
|
61,913
|
|
2022/23
|
65,954
|
66,217
|
66,423
|
67,793
|
67,713
|
67,566
|
|
2023/24
|
71,493
|
71,796
|
72,031
|
73,473
|
73,422
|
73,293
|
|
2024/25
|
77,094
|
77,438
|
77,702
|
79,215
|
79,200
|
79,094
|
|
2025/26
|
82,756
|
83,142
|
83,435
|
85,019
|
85,045
|
84,969
|
|
2026/27
|
88,488
|
88,914
|
89,235
|
90,892
|
90,963
|
90,914
|
|
2027/28
|
94,290
|
94,755
|
95,102
|
96,836
|
96,952
|
96,929
|
|
2028/29
|
100,163
|
100,665
|
101,036
|
102,850
|
103,014
|
103,016
|
|
2029/30
|
106,106
|
106,643
|
107,037
|
108,935
|
109,148
|
109,173
|
|
2030/31
|
112,117
|
112,687
|
113,103
|
115,088
|
115,353
|
115,399
|
Table E.14 Cumulative discounted total costs
|
Year
|
Total Road User and Impact Costs (analysed in this study) (£m)
|
Total Transport Cost (Cumulative) - Sum of agency and analysed road user and impact costs (£m)
|
|
Scenario 1:
Base case
|
Scenario 2:
20% cut
|
Scenario 3:
40% cut
|
Scenario 1:
Base case
|
Scenario 2:
20% cut
|
Scenario 3:
40% cut
|
|
2010/11
|
4,675
|
4,675
|
4,674
|
4,816
|
4,788
|
4,760
|
|
2011/12
|
9,248
|
9,248
|
9,249
|
9,526
|
9,472
|
9,417
|
|
2012/13
|
13,720
|
13,725
|
13,730
|
14,131
|
14,055
|
13,977
|
|
2013/14
|
18,094
|
18,106
|
18,117
|
18,631
|
18,539
|
18,441
|
|
2014/15
|
22,386
|
22,409
|
22,428
|
23,047
|
22,941
|
22,827
|
|
2015/16
|
26,596
|
26,633
|
26,663
|
27,376
|
27,261
|
27,134
|
|
2016/17
|
30,726
|
30,780
|
30,823
|
31,621
|
31,500
|
31,363
|
|
2017/18
|
34,776
|
34,849
|
34,907
|
35,782
|
35,659
|
35,514
|
|
2018/19
|
38,740
|
38,834
|
38,909
|
39,853
|
39,730
|
39,581
|
|
2019/20
|
42,619
|
42,737
|
42,831
|
43,836
|
43,717
|
43,566
|
|
2020/21
|
46,414
|
46,559
|
46,673
|
47,731
|
47,619
|
47,469
|
|
2021/22
|
50,123
|
50,294
|
50,429
|
51,537
|
51,436
|
51,290
|
|
2022/23
|
53,747
|
53,944
|
54,099
|
55,256
|
55,169
|
55,031
|
|
2023/24
|
57,289
|
57,511
|
57,684
|
58,887
|
58,819
|
58,693
|
|
2024/25
|
60,749
|
60,996
|
61,188
|
62,435
|
62,388
|
62,277
|
|
2025/26
|
64,128
|
64,401
|
64,610
|
65,899
|
65,878
|
65,783
|
|
2026/27
|
67,434
|
67,730
|
67,955
|
69,286
|
69,290
|
69,212
|
|
2027/28
|
70,667
|
70,985
|
71,224
|
72,598
|
72,628
|
72,564
|
|
2028/29
|
73,829
|
74,166
|
74,418
|
75,836
|
75,891
|
75,840
|
|
2029/30
|
76,920
|
77,276
|
77,540
|
79,001
|
79,082
|
79,043
|
|
2030/31
|
79,941
|
80,314
|
80,588
|
82,093
|
82,200
|
82,172
|