Key findings

This report examines the growing distortion in official vehicle registration statistics caused by geographic skew, primarily due to company keepership practices and the rise of personal contract hire lease purchases. Vehicles registered under company addresses - often highly concentrated in specific towns in England - do not accurately reflect where these vehicles are used, leading to significant under-reporting of electric vehicle uptake in Scotland.

Key findings include:

• Scotland has up to 46% more licenced battery electric cars and up to 91% more licenced battery electric vans than official statistics currently recognise due to the way in which many new vehicles are registered. The consistent combination of enabling policy and investment to promote adoption of EVs in Scotland since 2011 may have had greater impact than previously recognised. There may be over 66,000 additional plug-in vehicles, including plug-in hybrids in Scotland.

• Scotland’s total number of cars and vans are greater: There is likely to be a greater number of total vehicles of all fuel types in Scotland than previously understood. An additional 150,000 licenced cars and 55,000 licenced vans may be registered outwith Scotland yet kept in Scotland. A further 180,000 cars and 55,000 vans are additional unlicenced SORN declarations yet a proportion of these may be road using.

• Scotland’s total tailpipe emissions may be higher than official data suggests. Due to the under-reported total number of vehicles on the roads, calculation of total CO2e emissions may change depending on methodology adopted.

• Company keepership rates affect geographic allocation: Over 63% of all cars and 78% of BEVs registered in 2025 were recorded as company vehicles. Company vehicles are more likely to be registered at a different address to the keeper than private vehicles, and the high rates of company keepership in turn influence geographic allocation statistics.

• Better real-world data can support energy and climate policies: Car and van emissions currently contribute over 18% of all Scotland’s annual territorial emissions. Improving the quality of data on vehicle uptake through geographic adjustment is relevant to a range of stakeholders that enable electric vehicle investment including the charge point industry and energy distribution.

• Economic policy implications: Misallocated transport data affects carbon reduction targets, transport planning, and could mask wider patterns of tax optimization linked to vehicle registration practices.

Conclusion

The accuracy of official vehicle statistics for geographic location of vehicles by Nation or region has declined in recent years due to an incremental shift in vehicle purchase behaviour. This is partly a function of the taxation system, driving uptake of plug-in cars through incentivised business ownership, and also by the increasing adoption of popular leasing products that greatly reduce the initial capital outlay on new vehicle purchases. These have led to both an increase in the proportion of new vehicles recorded with DVLA under company keepership, and the reduced reliability of vehicle location data, resulting in geographic registration skew in official statistics.

Applying geographic adjustment techniques based on private keepership distribution patterns can provide better insight into the real-world vehicle locations of use.

This adjustment significantly alters the understanding of overall electric vehicle uptake by geographic dispersion. This reveals EV car prevalence in Scotland to be up to 46% greater than previously recognised, reinforcing the need for:

• Enhanced data transparency from DVLA and DfT
• Adoption of adjustment methodologies in national and devolved policy modelling from government bodies and relevant stakeholders
• Further exploration of the total number of vehicles in the Scottish car and van fleet.
• Further exploration of the implications of the aging vehicle fleet and increased prevalence of unlicenced SORN vehicles in Scotland.
• Further exploration of CO2e emission impacts
• Further exploration of the economic consequences of vehicles registered outside their primary nation of use.

This approach should be considered for integration into future reporting frameworks to ensure robust evidence for policy decisions and carbon reduction strategies.

Annex

Licenced car totals (DfT stats VEH9901, end December 2025)

Nation / region	BATTERY ELECTRIC	DIESEL	HYBRID ELECTRIC (COMBINED)	OTHER FUEL TYPES	PETROL	PHEV	TOTAL
East	172848	1015751	278569	2143	1983619	100392	3553322
East Midlands	89727	889151	187033	1530	1340782	52647	2560870
London	167957	372752	309158	1687	1683839	95270	2630663
North East	36854	421123	92765	842	662962	16756	1231302
North West	218371	1104784	314931	2435	1962865	116469	3719855
Northern Ireland	26200	537850	70893	590	408457	13905	1057895
Scotland	102582	742170	232410	2156	1484184	55710	2619212
South East	458119	1361092	529861	3534	3186008	200965	5739579
South West	165414	1010042	234610	2509	1822706	73046	3308327
Wales	42419	602660	111140	1868	878904	21589	1658580
West Midlands	94419	950236	232089	3919	1655982	54451	2991096
Yorkshire & H	126890	910895	226358	1838	1379812	68680	2714473

Geographically adjusted totals

Nation / region	BATTERY ELECTRIC	DIESEL	HYBRID ELECTRIC (COMBINED)	OTHER FUEL TYPES	PETROL	PHEV	TOTAL
East	185346	1017346	300984	2136	2003941	97542	3607296
East Midlands	136624	889728	204528	1540	1362881	67215	2662517
London	172682	368214	311092	1685	1688379	116152	2658203
North East	63086	426254	102092	856	678562	26192	1297042
North West	179032	1100771	321901	2459	1976635	88297	3669095
Northern Ireland	23203	540092	62650	597	397536	12231	1036309
Scotland	150082	751199	257923	2202	1537959	69555	2768919
South East	301370	1342174	443106	3355	3045771	152952	5288730
South West	151870	1005141	220797	2530	1802385	68630	3251354
Wales	66198	605489	117048	1895	888886	30482	1709997
West Midlands	139446	954630	247867	3950	1678182	70537	3094612
Yorkshire & H	132860	917467	229830	1846	1389004	70095	2741102

Licenced van totals (DfT stats VEH9901, end December 2025)

Nation / region	BATTERY ELECTRIC	DIESEL	HYBRID ELECTRIC (COMBINED)	OTHER FUEL TYPES	PETROL	PHEV	TOTAL
East	5970	456694	1019	462	19029	2183	485357
East Midlands	13074	369765	731	247	14381	1001	399199
London	6986	187542	597	424	9826	946	206321
North East	4256	178005	328	106	3410	411	186516
North West	11934	477139	1888	257	11730	1502	504450
Northern Ireland	1199	149603	459	28	1760	134	153183
Scotland	4938	353910	1043	162	9017	713	369783
South East	28047	768698	2892	692	29167	2925	832421
South West	13958	562584	1347	481	21620	1831	601821
Wales	3060	264645	634	163	6798	466	275766
West Midlands	13601	387904	746	270	12122	709	415352
Yorkshire & H	4630	351590	1141	262	9999	922	368544

Geographically adjusted totals

Nation / region	BATTERY ELECTRIC	DIESEL	HYBRID ELECTRIC (COMBINED)	OTHER FUEL TYPES	PETROL	PHEV	TOTAL
East	11916	450247	1028	433	19602	2165	485390
East Midlands	7762	363007	746	264	11749	855	384383
London	11994	188759	732	400	9532	1223	212639
North East	4205	172493	552	84	3608	475	181416
North West	9921	460772	1273	251	11291	1231	484738
Northern Ireland	2252	185324	1507	28	2030	180	191320
Scotland	9455	403408	1281	168	9483	999	424793
South East	18031	638501	1870	710	29371	2386	690869
South West	13121	576380	1221	523	22320	1469	615034
Wales	6807	315552	658	170	7322	617	331126
West Midlands	7066	380179	720	275	12776	957	401973
Yorkshire & H	9119	373457	1237	248	9777	1187	395026