8. Progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2020 (Tables 5-9)

8. Progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2020 (Tables 5-9)

8.1 The following section provides information on the progress made towards each of the casualty reduction targets set out in Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2020 (see section 11.5 for more information about the Framework).

8.2 Progress is assessed towards a milestone in 2015 and the final target by means of an indicative trend based on a constant annual percentage reduction (see section 11.6 for more information).  Detailed tables for each of the targets, including a breakdown by mode and historic data are included in Tables 5 to 9.

Target: 40% reduction in those killed by 2020

8.3 There were 162 people killed in 2015, a 44% reduction since the 2004-08 baseline average.  The decrease seen to 2015 is greater than that required to achieve the 2015 milestone reduction (30%).  Figure 4 shows that the total number of fatalities in 2015 was below the indicative line required to  achieve both the milestone and target [Table 5].

Figure 4: Progress to casualty reduction target: Casualties killed

Target: 55% reduction in those seriously injured by 2020

8.4 There were 1,597 serious injuries in 2015, a 39% reduction since the 2004-08 baseline level. The decrease seen to 2015 has not yet surpassed the framework milestone for 2015 (a reduction of 43% from 2004-08) [Table 6].

Figure 5: Progress to casualty reduction target: Seriously injured casualties

Target: 50% reduction in children killed by 2020

8.5 Due to small numbers and year-to-year fluctuations this target is measured using a three year average.  An average of 7 children a year were killed in the 2013-2015 period, a 55% reduction since the 2004-2008 baseline.  The current reduction seen to 2015 is greater than that required by both the 2015 milestone (a 35% reduction) and the 2020 target [Table 7].

Figure 6: Progress to casualty reduction target: Children killed

Target: 65% reduction in children seriously injured by 2020

8.6 140 children recorded as seriously injured in 2015, a 57% reduction since the 2004-08 baseline.  The decrease to 2015 is greater than that required to achieve the 2015 milestone reduction (50%) [Table 8].

Figure 7: Progress to casualty reduction target: Children seriously injured

Target: 10% reduction in slight casualties by 2020 (per 100 million vehicle kilometres)

8.7 Table 9 shows that the 2015 slight casualty rate was 20.26 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres. This was a 38% reduction since the 2004-08 baseline and is therefore greater than the reduction required to achieve the 2020 target [Table 9].

Table 5: People killed by mode of transport, 1994 – 2015

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motor cycle	Car	Bus/coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users
1994-98 ave	104	11	31	209	3	15	5	378
1994	111	5	24	197	9	14	3	363
1995	121	11	33	221	1	19	3	409
1996	106	15	29	185	3	14	5	357
1997	87	9	37	219	2	16	7	377
1998	96	13	33	223	1	13	6	385
1999	89	8	30	169	1	11	2	310
2000	72	12	40	182	1	15	4	326
2001	76	10	49	194	0	14	5	348
2002	73	8	46	154	0	21	2	304
2003	63	14	50	189	1	14	5	336
2004	76	7	42	167	3	12	1	308
2005	66	16	34	153	0	15	2	286
2006	61	10	58	175	0	8	2	314
2007	60	4	40	160	0	15	2	281
2008	60	9	34	153	1	8	5	270
2009	47	5	43	116	0	5	0	216
2010	47	7	35	105	1	8	5	208
2011	43	7	33	89	1	9	3	185
2012	59	9	21	73	1	13	0	176
2013	38	13	23	89	2	5	2	172
2014	59	8	30	94	1	2	9	203
2015 prov.	41	5	27	72	1	14	2	162
2004-08 average	65	9	42	162	1	12	2	292
2011-15 average	48	8	27	83	1	9	3	180
Numbers in 2015	45	6	29	113	1	8	2	204
implied by target
2015 % change:	-31%	*	*	-23%	*	*	*	-20%
on 2014
on 04-08 ave	-37%	*	*	-55%	*	*	*	-44%

*  A percentage change is not shown if the denominator is  50 or fewer.
1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.

Table 6: People seriously injured by mode of transport, 1994 – 2015

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motor cycle	Car	Bus/coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users
1994-98 ave	1,272	238	324	2,292	93	156	84	4,460
1994	1,536	311	329	2,607	141	197	87	5,208
1995	1,466	281	362	2,432	104	192	93	4,930
1996	1,173	201	271	2,108	93	123	72	4,041
1997	1,124	201	321	2,146	53	120	82	4,047
1998	1,060	197	338	2,167	75	150	85	4,072
1999	1,054	181	401	1,835	82	133	79	3,765
2000	925	164	435	1,796	79	106	63	3,568
2001	842	161	405	1,758	62	115	67	3,410
2002	820	144	410	1,628	59	120	48	3,229
2003	712	125	367	1,511	69	114	59	2,957
2004	674	121	353	1,414	63	83	58	2,766
2005	677	116	371	1,304	63	83	52	2,666
2006	688	131	352	1,258	57	91	58	2,635
2007	594	147	381	1,110	33	87	33	2,385
2008	645	155	396	1,203	59	65	52	2,575
2009	509	152	332	1,135	36	73	50	2,287
2010	457	138	319	903	52	60	40	1,969
2011	515	156	293	758	51	63	44	1,880
2012	461	169	343	847	44	68	49	1,981
2013	403	149	281	720	34	45	39	1,671
2014	423	159	327	685	28	51	31	1,704
2015 prov.	421	164	255	641	49	47	20	1,597
2004-08 average	656	134	371	1,258	55	82	51	2,605
2011-15 average	445	159	300	730	41	55	37	1,767
Numbers in 2015	374	76	211	717	31	47	29	1,485
implied by target
2015 % change:	0%	3%	-22%	-6%	*	-8%	*	-6%
on 2014
on 04-08 ave	-36%	22%	-31%	-49%	-11%	-43%	-60%	-39%

*  A percentage change is not shown if the denominator is  50 or fewer.
1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.

Table 7: Children killed by mode of transport, 1994 – 2015

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motor cycle	Car	Bus/coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users	3 year average 3
1994-98 ave	17	3	0	8	1	0	0	30
1994	18	4	1	10	4	-	-	37
1995	16	3	-	11	-	-	-	30	31
1996	16	6	1	3	1	-	-	27	28
1997	15	1	-	9	-	1	-	26	28
1998	18	3	-	9	1	-	1	32	28
1999	17	1	-	6	-	-	1	25	26
2000	13	4	-	4	-	-	-	21	22
2001	14	4	-	2	-	-	-	20	18
2002	12	-	-	2	-	-	-	14	17
2003	5	2	-	10	-	-	-	17	14
2004	8	-	1	3	-	-	-	12	13
2005	5	4	-	1	-	-	1	11	16
2006	9	5	-	10	-	1	-	25	15
2007	4	1	-	4	-	-	-	9	18
2008	4	2	1	13	-	-	-	20	11
2009	1	1	-	3	-	-	-	5	10
2010	1	1	1	1	-	-	-	4	5
2011	2	-	-	5	-	-	-	7	4
2012	1	1	-	-	-	-	-	2	6
2013	5	2	-	2	-	-	-	9	6
2014	3	-	-	4	-	-	-	7	7
2015 prov.	3	1	-	1	-	-	-	5
2004-08 average	6	2	0	6	-	0	0	15
2011-15 average	3	1	-	2	-	-	-	6
2013-15 average									7
2013-15 avg % change
on 04-08 ave									-55%

1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.
3. All averages rounded to whole percentages.

Table 8: Children seriously injured by mode of transport, 1994 - 2015

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motor cycle	Car	Bus/coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users
1994-98 ave	546	96	5	136	10	8	10	812
1994	656	140	5	151	20	12	8	992
1995	622	110	7	142	9	13	17	920
1996	524	94	3	115	14	3	10	763
1997	490	77	4	129	3	6	10	719
1998	437	61	8	144	5	6	5	666
1999	413	68	5	102	2	2	8	600
2000	365	61	7	90	7	5	5	540
2001	339	52	7	108	5	6	7	524
2002	328	46	7	109	9	7	7	513
2003	268	46	5	83	5	2	6	415
2004	239	40	9	74	3	3	4	372
2005	239	26	11	67	6	2	5	356
2006	239	35	10	60	4	0	2	350
2007	181	28	4	51	1	1	3	269
2008	194	18	5	56	2	1	3	279
2009	155	26	2	62	2	1	5	253
2010	150	23	3	40	7	0	0	223
2011	139	23	2	34	4	0	1	203
2012	132	21	1	34	1	5	0	194
2013	92	11	1	34	3	0	2	143
2014	117	18	4	27	2	1	3	172
2015 prov.	97	11	1	28	2	0	1	140
2004-08 average	218	29	8	62	3	1	3	325
2011-15 average	115	17	2	31	2	1	1	170
Numbers in 2015	109	15	4	31	2	1	2	163
implied by target
2015 % change:	-17%	*	*	*	*	*	*	-19%
on 2014
on 04-08 ave	-56%	*	*	-55%	*	*	*	-57%

* A percentage change is not shown if the denominator is  50 or fewer.
1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.

Table 9: Slight casualties by mode of transport, 1994 - 2015

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motor cycle	Car	Bus/coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users	Traffic	Slight casualty rate
								numbers	mill veh-km	per 100 mill veh-km
1994-98 ave	3,009	1,034	580	10,859	912	583	501	17,478	37,653	46.42
1994	3,083	1,068	577	10,123	1,084	669	398	17,002	36,000	47.23
1995	3,048	1,031	576	10,321	802	579	498	16,855	36,737	45.88
1996	3,047	1,081	550	10,740	902	499	499	17,318	37,777	45.84
1997	2,944	1,062	590	11,669	886	525	529	18,205	38,581	47.19
1998	2,921	930	605	11,444	887	643	580	18,010	39,168	45.98
1999	2,620	828	594	10,901	841	609	534	16,927	39,770	42.56
2000	2,607	708	655	10,675	854	542	582	16,623	39,561	42.02
2001	2,487	745	724	10,342	761	595	499	16,153	40,065	40.32
2002	2,423	676	711	10,050	801	621	460	15,742	41,535	37.90
2003	2,215	663	697	10,055	822	537	474	15,463	42,038	36.78
2004	2,328	648	599	10,024	849	561	419	15,428	42,705	36.13
2005	2,308	649	677	9,532	794	495	478	14,933	42,718	34.96
2006	2,104	640	658	9,272	706	484	456	14,320	44,119	32.46
2007	2,050	563	640	8,793	590	506	431	13,573	44,666	30.39
2008	1,888	566	612	8,314	527	467	373	12,747	44,470	28.66
2009	1,643	647	646	8,328	437	423	416	12,540	44,219	28.36
2010	1,509	636	491	7,293	487	386	359	11,161	43,488	25.66
2011	1,506	661	482	6,933	454	384	305	10,725	43,390	24.72
2012	1,460	728	503	6,745	396	411	314	10,557	43,549	24.24
2013	1,306	724	471	6,153	358	390	260	9,662	43,840	22.04
2014	1,272	726	471	6,006	262	398	265	9,400	44,839	20.96
2015 prov.	1,226	625	452	5,988	282	411	207	9,191	45,374	20.26
2004-08 average	2,136	613	637	9,187	693	503	431	14,200	43,736	32.52
2011-15 average	1,354	693	476	6,365	350	399	270	9,907	44,198	22.44
Rate in 2015										30.89
implied by target
2015 % change:	-4%	-14%	-4%	0%	8%	3%	-22%	-2%	1%	-3%
on 2014
on 04-08 ave	-43%	2%	-29%	-35%	-59%	-18%	-52%	-35%	4%	-38%

1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.