Consultation and Research

As part of the consultation, stakeholders were asked:

What are your views on the potential impact of the two proposed schemes on communities in the more rural and remote parts of the UK and to those businesses involved in the sale of vehicles in those areas?

Respondents offered a variety of views on the potential impact on rural and remote communities. The overwhelming sentiment recognised that rural communities do face challenges specific to them in the transition to zero emission vehicles and that they will require bespoke support to meet the needs of communities. The primary concern is charging infrastructure, with nearly two thirds of respondents including NGOs, vehicle manufacturers and trade associations highlighting this as a specific concern. Around a quarter called for more financial support outside of infrastructure, for example, subsidising ZEV purchases. Some respondents also used this opportunity to emphasise the importance of a UK-wide scheme in ensuring rural areas are not left behind.

View the full consultation response.

Assessment

Our island communities face unique circumstances which may affect households’ and businesses’ ability to comply with regulations. In addition, these unique circumstances may alter the relative impact of these regulations, compared to other mainland communities.

Transport

Many of those living in rural communities (such as Scotland’s island communities) have a greater reliance on car availability for transport to access key services. Evidence from the National Travel Survey shows that in 2020, only 8% of households in rural towns have no car or van; significantly lower than in suburban and urban areas, with Urban Conurbation at 32%.

Figure 1: Proportion of households by residency area with no car or van

Additionally, many island and rural communities require or have preference for larger vehicles, with greater mileage to service rural trips. As a consequence, these communities may face a higher upfront cost of vehicle purchase. However, those undertaking more mileage will also generate running cost savings at a faster rate.

Charging Infrastructure

The availability of vehicle charging points may also be a concern for some island and rural communities. The lower population density in those areas can lead to a lower provision of public chargepoints. However, research on chargepoint availability suggests that some of Scotland’s island communities are arguably among the best-prepared for increasing ZEV uptake. Local authority-level data collection identifies the Orkney Islands, Shetland Islands, Na h-Eileanan Siar, Argyll and Bute and Highland and Islands as all falling within the top 7 best-prepared communities, with Orkney holding roughly 5 times as many chargepoints per person than Glasgow and Edinburgh. Nevertheless, this trend may not be the case for all island communities.

Additionally, those in island and rural areas are more likely to have access to off street parking, which will mean they can undertake the vast majority of their charging at home. There will still be a need for sufficient charging infrastructure to support long journeys and households without access to off street parking.

Cost

As stated, there may be unique challenges faced by island communities in taking up ZEVs. For instance, median incomes across some of our island communities are lower than the Scottish national average, and therefore up-front costs of ZEVs may be more prohibitive. That said, it should be noted that consumer uptake of ZEVs is not compulsory; for the period of these direct regulations, ICE vehicles (ICEVs) will be permitted to be sold. Furthermore, the second-hand market for ICEVs will continue to operate, and ZEVs will increasingly become available at lower cost on the second-hand market over time. Finally, and most critically, ZEV costs are expected to decline over time which we expect to further reduce the barriers to participation and support a just transition to ZEVs across all of Scotland’s communities.

Island drivers may also face higher operating costs than their mainland counterparts, pertinent to both ICEVs and ZEVs. Rural areas, such as the Scottish islands, pay on average 1p-2p per litre more for road fuel, due to lower competition and higher supply costs. The availability of rural fuel duty discounts in areas such as the Inner and Outer Hebrides is an indicator of the higher market costs these communities face. Equally, their unit cost of electricity may be greater. However, ZEVs are expected to offer running cost savings of nearly 50% per kilometre compared to their ICEV counterparts, with this saving expected to increase as battery efficiency gains are realised. Therefore, island electricity costs would need to be more the twice the average p/kWh paid for island ZEV drivers to face the same price per km as running an ICEV. Evidence from 2015 suggests that electricity unit costs may only be approximately 25 – 30% higher for island communities relative to the national average. However, the recent trend of a rise in consumer and business investment in microgeneration may have since decreased this difference.

Finally, drivers on several Scottish islands are exempt from requiring an MOT on their vehicles, subject to certain conditions. As a result, the car and van fleets on these islands are expected to be on average older, less efficient, and have greater adverse air quality impacts than their mainland counterparts. The marginal benefit of replacing island vehicles with ZEVs is therefore expected to be greater, thereby potentially offering greater net social benefits to island communities.