Article 2: Priorities in Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020 - An Assessment of Relative Levels and Trends

Article 2: Priorities in Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020 - An Assessment of Relative Levels and Trends

1. Background

1.1. Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020 was published in 2009. It sets out a policy framework for improving road safety in Scotland over the coming decade. It described the road safety vision for Scotland, aims and commitments, and the Scottish targets for reductions in road deaths and serious injuries to 2020. Analysis of progress towards the Road Safety Targets is looked at in Article 1 of this publication.

1.2. The Road Safety Framework to 2020 document also set out a number of national road safety priorities identified through public consultation, expert opinion, research and statistics, to be addressed in order to achieve the road safety targets. The priorities identified are:

• Leadership
• Sharing intelligence and good practice
• Children
• Drivers aged 17-25
• Rural Roads
• Drink Drive
• Seatbelts
• Speed

1.3. This paper takes the priorities in the Road Safety Framework as a starting point and presents an analysis of relative levels and trends in the priority areas. The analysis uses STATS19 data and other published statistics to look at the last six of these priorities in more detail, as it is not possible to analyse the impacts of the first two priorities (Leadership and Sharing intelligence and good practice) using the collected statistics.

1.4. Other issues have been identified in work with stakeholders since the publication of the Framework document and some of these are also be included in the analysis where data is collected through the STATS19 data collection. These are:

• Pedal Cycles
• Motor cyclists
• Distraction
• Local Authority Roads
• Pedestrians
• Older drivers
• Trunk Roads

i. Key messages

• Progress is being made towards the Framework targets as shown in this article and Article 1, as the long term trends are downwards for most priorities.

However there are areas that stand out within this overall trend and within some priority areas. The key points below are drawn from the text on the following pages. More detail and caveats are included in section 4 below. Priorities are listed here in the same order as in the rest of the paper.

Roads

1. Local Authority Roads account 95 per cent of the network and carry just under two thirds of traffic however 70 per cent of fatalities and 82 per cent of serious injuries occur on these roads.

2. Rural Roads account for a high proportion of fatalities, particularly cars and motorcycles but also pedal cycles.

3. Thirty per cent of fatalities occur on Trunk Roads however when traffic volumes are taken into account this rate is relatively low compared to Local Authority roads.

Mode of transport

4. Serious injuries to Pedestrians increased slightly in 2011, at least in part as a result of low figures in 2010 due to winter weather.

5. Motor cycle casualties have started to fall in recent years, however motorcyclists still account for 1 in 5 fatalities on rural roads and a high proportion of fatalities and serious injuries compared to distance travelled by motor cycle.

6. Pedal cycle casualties have increased slightly due to increases in cycling. Pedal cyclists account for 1 in 10 fatalities and less than one per cent of distance travelled. Less than one in five cycle casualties occur on rural roads, however 60 per cent of fatalities and a quarter of serious injuries occur in rural areas.

Road users

7. Young drivers and (young males in particular) have a much higher casualty rate than other road users, even before the rate of driving licence possession have been taken into consideration.

8. Older driver fatalities increased in 2011, though serious injuries and casualties of all severities fell.

9. For younger Children the casualty rate is highest for passenger casualties but for older children there is a higher casualty rate for pedestrians, particularly for males.

Behaviour

10. Speeding and inappropriate speed remain issues on the roads, highlighted by casualty numbers and the number of speeding offences recorded by the police.

11. Drink Drive numbers continue to fall but drink drive still resulted in an average of 30 fatalities and 150 serious injuries over the last five years for which estimates are available (2006-2010).

12. Distraction is recorded as a contributory factor in a relatively small number of serious and fatal accidents, however with almost 30,000 mobile phone offences recorded by the police in 2011-12, this remains an issue.

3. Priority Areas: Proportion of Fatalities and Serious Injuries

3.1. Charts A and B below show the proportion of fatalities and serious injuries for each of the priorities which have been grouped according to whether they are related to road type, mode of transport, road users or user behaviour. The groupings are to aid comparisons, as the relative casualty rates within the groups are more informative than comparing across groups, though each priority is analysed in relation to all fatalities and serious injuries.

3.2. In both charts, the longer the dark bar, the higher the proportion of casualties are attributed to that factor. Each bar is a percentage of all fatalities or serious injuries in 2011. Each priority is measured independently so for example a pedestrian fatality on a rural road would be counted against both priorities. This means that the bars will not add up to 100 per cent within categories, as for example, within the mode of transport section some modes of transport are missing from the list. Data for other modes is available in the casualties section of the publication. The only two bars that will add up to 100 per cent are Trunk Roads and Local Roads as all roads fall into one or other of these definitions.

Box 1: Rural and Country Roads

Several tables in Reported Road Casualties Scotland show casualty numbers in built up and non built up areas. This definition uses the speed limit of the road to identify roads in built up areas ie with a speed limit of 40 mph or less. Some roads running through towns and cities will have a speed limit of over 40 mph and would be counted as non built up. The figures for Rural roads shown here use the Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification to identify all roads and sections of road running through areas defined as rural. This will include all roads for example, motorways running through rural areas and roads in villages with 30mph speed limits could be included if the area is defined as rural. Country Roads are defined as roads running through rural areas with a speed limit of over 40 mph and excluding dual carriageways and motorways, though single carriageway trunk roads would be included.

Chart A: Proportion of fatalities that involve each priority (2011)

Chart B: Proportion of serious injuries that involve each priority (2011)

3.3. Charts A and B show that in 2011:

• Local Authority Roads accounted for 70 per cent of fatalities and 82 per cent of serious injuries.
• Roads in rural areas accounted for over two thirds of fatalities (69 per cent) and almost half of serious injuries (49 per cent).
• Country roads accounted for half of fatalities (50 per cent) and over a third of serious injuries (37 per cent).
• Trunk Roads accounted for 30 per cent of fatalities and 18 per cent of serious injuries.
• Pedestrians make up 23 per cent of fatalities and 27 per cent of serious injuries.
• Motor cyclists accounted for 18 per cent of fatalities and 16 per cent of serious injuries.
• Pedal cycle casualties account for 4 per cent of fatalities and 8 per cent of serious injuries.
• Accidents involving younger drivers (aged 17-25) accounted for over a quarter of fatalities and serious injuries.
• Young drivers (aged 17-25) account for 9 per cent of fatalities and 7 per cent of serious injuries.
• Accidents involving older drivers (aged 70+) accounted for 17 per cent of fatalities and 11 per cent of serious injuries.
• Older drivers (aged 70+) account for 8 per cent of fatalities and 3 per cent of serious injuries.
• Children accounted for 4 per cent of fatalities and 11 per cent of serious injuries.
• Speed (inappropriate speed or speeding) was recorded as a contributory factor in accidents resulting in 26 per cent of fatalities and 6 per cent of serious injuries.
• Drink drive accounted for 12 per cent of fatalities and 6 per cent of serious injuries.
• Distraction was recorded as a contributory factor in accidents resulting in 3 per cent of fatalities and 4 per cent of serious injuries.

3.4. The patterns above need to be considered in context and this is set out under the headings in Section 4 below.

3.5. In both Chart A and Chart B, the darker shaded bars are longest for the road type priorities showing that the majority of casualties can be attributed to one of these priorities. The majority of fatalities and serious injuries occur on Local Authority Roads. Some of this difference is explained by the distribution of the road network and traffic. Local Authority roads account for 94 per cent of the road network in Scotland and 63 per cent of road traffic. 54 per cent of the road network is in rural areas (excluding motorways).

3.6. Car users account for almost half of fatalities, however cars account for around three quarters of traffic on the road network so car users are relatively under represented as casualties. Other modes are over represented in the casualty numbers and these are looked at in Section 4 below.

3.7. Casualties by road user type and behaviour make up a much smaller proportion of casualties, though over a quarter of fatalities and serious injuries occur in accidents involving young drivers (though the young driver may not have been at fault).

4. Casualty figures by priority

4.1. This section looks at each of the priorities in turn, making links between the priorities where appropriate. The section for each priority starts with two boxes showing the relative proportions of killed and seriously injured casualties attributed to that factor, ie the more dark shading the box, the higher the proportion of casualties attributed to the factor. The text below the boxes provides the actual percentages.

4.2. Each section also includes a Chart Showing the trend in casualty numbers over time. These charts are indexed so that casualty numbers for each severity can appear on the same Chart To enable the comparison of trends even though the absolute numbers are of different magnitudes.

4.3. The priorities are ordered in the same way as in the charts above. Within roads, mode of transport and behaviour, the priorities are grouped from highest number of fatalities to lowest. In the road users group, the priorities are grouped by age and ordered from highest to lowest in terms of number of fatalities.

Box 2: Index Numbers

Index numbers enable the analysis of trends where numbers are of different magnitude. They work by indexing all numbers around the same base line, usually 100. In this article, the average for each severity for 2004-2008, the baseline period for the Road Safety Framework is set to 100 in each chart, and all other figures are adjusted around it. A figure of less than 100 shows a fall compared to the baseline period and a figure of more than 100 shows an increase. For example Chart C shows that the number of fatalities on trunk roads has fallen by almost 40 per cent since the baseline period as the indexed figure is 62 compared to 100 in the baseline period.

4.1 Road types

Local Authority Roads

Fatalities on Local Authority roads

4.1.1. There were 130 fatalities and 1,546 serious injuries on Local Authority roads in 2011.

4.1.2. Local Authority Roads accounted for 70 per cent of fatalities and 82 per cent of serious injuries in 2011. Local Authority roads make up 94 per cent of the road network and almost two thirds of traffic (63 per cent).

4.1.3. The number of fatalities on Local Authority Roads has fallen by 36 per cent and the number of serious injuries has fallen by 27 per cent since the 2004-2008 baseline period for the Road Safety Framework. The number of slight injuries on Local Authority Roads has fallen by a quarter (25 per cent).

4.1.4. Between 2010 and 2011 fatalities on Local Authority Roads fell by 8 per cent, there was no change in serious injuries and slight injuries fell by 3 per cent.

Chart C: Casualties on Local Authority roads over time

Roads in rural areas and country roads

4.1.5. For the purposes of this analysis, roads in rural areas refers to all roads in rural areas for example it includes dual carriageways and roads in rural villages with speed limits of 30mph. Country roads refers to a subset of roads in rural areas excluding roads with a speed limit of 40 mph or less and excluding dual carriageways and motorways.

4.1.6. There were 129 fatalities and 920 serious injuries on roads in rural areas in 2011. There were 93 fatalities and 691 serious injuries on country roads in 2011.

4.1.7. Roads in rural areas account for over two thirds of fatalities (69 per cent) and almost half of serious injuries (49 per cent) in 2011. The non-motorway road network in rural areas accounts for 54 per cent of road length.

4.1.8. Half of fatalities (50 per cent) and over a third of serious injuries (37 per cent) occurred on country roads in 2011.

4.1.9. The number of fatalities on roads in rural areas has fallen by 39 per cent and the number of serious injuries has fallen by 32 per cent since the 2004-2008 baseline period for the Road Safety Framework. The number of slight injuries on roads in rural areas has fallen by 29 per cent.

4.1.10. The number of fatalities on country roads has fallen by 45 per cent and the number of serious injuries has fallen by 31 per cent since the 2004-2008 baseline period for the Road Safety Framework. The number of slight injuries on country roads has fallen by 30 per cent.

4.1.11. Between 2010 and 2011 fatalities on roads in rural areas fell by 18 per cent, serious injuries fell by 13 per cent and slight injuries fell by 10 per cent.

4.1.12. Between 2010 and 2011 fatalities on country roads fell by 25 per cent, serious injuries fell by 12 per cent and slight injuries fell by 10 per cent.

Chart D: Casualties on roads in rural areas over time.

Chart E: Casualties on country roads over time.

4.1.13. There is a higher proportion of fatalities on roads in rural areas as more of these roads will have higher speed limits than roads in urban areas and therefore accidents are likely to be more severe. Rural roads are becoming safer as the reductions in casualties of all severities shows and the proportion of casualties occurring on rural roads has been falling.

4.1.14. In the baseline period, 73 per cent of fatalities occurred on roads in rural areas and this has now fallen to 69 per cent. Serious injuries have fallen from 52 per cent to 49 per cent and slight injuries have fallen from 41 per cent to 39 per cent.

4.1.15. Cars and Motorcycles account for four out of every five casualties on roads in rural areas. In 2011, cars and motorcycles accounted for 82 per cent of fatalities, 81 per cent of serious injuries and 85 per cent of slight injuries. One in five deaths and serious injuries on roads in rural areas is a motorcyclist.

Trunk Roads

4.1.16. There were 56 fatalities and 329 serious injuries on Trunk roads in 2011.

4.1.17. Trunk Roads accounted for 30 per cent of fatalities and 18 per cent of serious injuries in 2011. Trunk roads make up 6 per cent of the road network in Scotland, so trunk roads are over represented in the casualty numbers based on road length, however the Trunk Roads carry 37 per cent of road traffic meaning that the rate of casualties per distance travelled on Trunk Roads is lower than that for the rest of the road network.

4.1.18. The number of fatalities on Trunk Roads has fallen by 38 per cent and the number of serious injuries has fallen by 33 per cent since the 2004-2008 baseline period for the Road Safety Framework. The number of slight injuries on Trunk Roads has fallen by a quarter (25 per cent).

4.1.19. Between 2010 and 2011 fatalities on Trunk Roads fell by 16 per cent, serious injuries fell by 21 per cent and slight injuries fell by 10 per cent.

Chart F: Casualties on trunk roads over time.

Chart G: Proportion of casualties by mode of transport in 2011

4.2 Mode of transport

4.2.1. Chart G shows the proportion of casualties by mode of transport, comparing car, pedestrian, pedal cycle and motor cycle. Car drivers / passengers make up 48 per cent of people killed on the roads, 40 per cent of serious injuries and 61 per cent of all severities. Pedestrians make up the second highest proportion, 23 per cent of fatalities, 27 per cent of serious injuries and 16 per cent of all casualties. Motor cyclists make up a high proportion of those killed and seriously injured compared to the proportion of all motor cycle casualties, 18 and 16 per cent compared to 6 per cent of all casualties. Pedal Cyclists make up a relatively small proportion of those killed but a much higher proportion of serious and slight injuries, 4 per cent compared to 8 per cent of serious injuries and 6 per cent of all casualties.

Pedestrians

4.2.2. There 43 fatalities and 513 serious injuries to pedestrians in 2011.

4.2.3. Pedestrian casualties make up 23 per cent of fatalities and 27 per cent of serious injuries in 2011.

Chart H: Changes in numbers of pedestrian casualties over time.

4.2.4. The number of pedestrians killed has fallen by a third from the 2004-2008 Road Safety Framework baseline period. The number of pedestrians seriously injured has fallen by 22 per cent over the same period. Slight pedestrian casualties have fallen by 30 per cent.

4.2.5. The number of pedestrian casualties of all severities has increased by 2 per cent in the last year. The overall figure hides a fall of 9 per cent in the number killed, a half a percentage fall in the number of slight injuries and an increase of 12 per cent in the number of serious injuries. The increase in the number of serious injuries in 2011 takes the number back to 2009 levels. The 2010 figure will have been lower in part due to the winter weather in early and later 2009 which reduced travel in this period.

Motor Cycles

4.2.6. There were 33 fatalities and 293 serious injuries to motorcyclists in 2011.

4.2.7. Motor cyclists accounted for 18 per cent of fatalities and 16 per cent of serious injuries in 2011.

4.2.8. The number of motor cyclists killed has fallen by 21 per cent and the number of motor cyclists seriously injured has also fallen by 21 per cent since the 2004-2008 baseline period for the Road Safety Framework. The number of slight injuries has fallen by almost a quarter (24 per cent).

4.2.9. Between 2010 and 2011, motor cyclist fatalities fell by 6 per cent, serious injuries fell by 8 per cent and slight injuries fell by 2 per cent.

4.2.10. Traffic volume estimates published in Scottish Transport Statistics (Table 5.3) provide an indication of trends over time. Distance travelled by motorbike has fallen in the last couple of years from a peak in 2007 to 2009. There has been a 6 per cent reduction in distance travelled by motorcycle since the 2004 to 2008 baseline period for the Road Safety Framework. These trends are shown in Chart K.

Chart I: Changes in the numbers of motor cycle casualties over time.

4.2.11. Motor cyclist casualties per million kms travelled have fallen over the last couple of years by more than the fall in the distance travelled. The rate of motorcycle casualties per distance travelled has fallen 18 per cent and fatal and serious injuries have fallen 16 per cent. This shows that motor cycling has become relatively safer in the last couple of years. However the rates are still high compared to other modes.

4.2.12. Motorcycles make up less than 1 per cent of the distance travelled by road and yet account for more than one in five (22 per cent) of deaths and serious injuries on the roads. Chart L shows the rate of casualties per million vehicle kilometres for motorcycles is similar to that for pedal cycles. The fatality rate for motor cyclists is 5 times as high as for pedal cycles (0.11 per million vehicle kilometres compared to 0.02) and the rate of serious injury is twice as high (0.99 per million vehicle kilometres compared to 0.51).

Pedal Cycles

4.2.13. There were 7 fatalities and 156 serious injuries to pedal cyclists in 2011.

4.2.14. Pedal cycle casualties account for 4 per cent of fatalities and 8 per cent of serious injuries in 2011.

4.2.15. The number of pedal cyclists killed has fallen by 22 per cent from the 2004-2008 baseline for the Road Safety Framework, however the number of pedal cyclists seriously injured has increased by 16 per cent and the number of slight injuries have increased by 8 per cent.

4.2.16. Between 2010 and 2011, pedal cyclist fatalities remained the same (7 in each year), serious injuries increased by 13 per cent and slight injuries increased by 4 per cent. Some of this increase will be due to the severe winter weather in early and late 2010 reducing the number of cycling journeys made in that period.

Chart J: Changes in numbers of pedal cycle casualties over time.

4.2.17. Traffic volume estimates published in Scottish Transport Statistics (Table 5.3) provide an indication of trends over time. Pedal cycling has increased by more than a quarter (27 per cent) in the last five years (and 22 per cent compared to the Framework baseline) whilst car, motor cycle and all traffic has fallen from a peak in 2007. The falls have been 3 per cent, 10 per cent and 3 per cent respectively. These trends are shown in Chart K.

Chart K: Changes in traffic volumes over time.

4.2.18. Cycling casualties per million kilometres cycled have remained relatively stable over the last couple of years showing that the small increases seen in cycling casualties are likely to be a result of the large increases in the number of cyclists on the roads. The roads are not becoming more dangerous for cyclists but there are more on the roads. The rate of casualties per million vehicle kilometres for cars, motorcycles and pedal cycles are shown in Chart L.

4.2.19. Pedal cyclists are over represented in the casualty statistics though as Figure 11 shows. Pedal cycles account for less than 1 per cent of distance travelled but 10 per cent of deaths and serious injuries. Cars account for 77 per cent of traffic, 62 per cent of those killed and seriously injured and less than half of fatalities (48 per cent).

4.2.20. Table 23a of Reported Road Casualties Scotland 2011, provides casualty data by mode and road type. This table shows that over the period 2007 to 2011, 60 per cent of pedal cycle fatalities and a quarter of serious injuries are on rural roads ie roads in rural areas. Less than 1 in 5 casualties of all severities are on rural roads. Just under half of fatalities and 14 per cent of serious injuries are on rural roads with speed limits over 40 mph. This suggests that accidents involving pedal cyclist in towns and cities are likely to be less serious than accidents in rural areas probably as a result of lower traffic speeds in built up areas.

Chart L: Casualty rates per million vehicle kilometres travelled.

Chart M: Proportion of casualties compared to traffic volumes (2011).

4.3 Road Users

Casualties by age

4.3.1. The Framework priorities segment road users by age, with particular focus on children, young adults and older people. These are looked at in turn after more general analysis.

4.3.2. Casualty rates have fallen between 2004-2008 and 2007-2011 for all age bands and types of road user and the fall has been greatest for younger people as shown in Chart N. The rate of pedestrian casualties for younger people has fallen greatest for those in the 12-15 age band. For young adults (aged 16-22) the fall has been greatest in the rate of casualties as drivers and as passengers.

4.3.3. The patterns shown in Chart N can be further split by gender. The trend over time remains, in that casualty rates by age for all modes are falling over time, however Chart O identifies differences by gender.

4.3.4. There is a higher rate of pedestrian casualties for males of all ages compared to females, though the pattern is the same in the peak at age 12-15.

4.3.5. There is a higher rate of driver / rider casualties for males of all ages with the largest differences in the 16-22 and 30-39 age groups. There is a higher rate of passenger / pillion casualties among women compared to men, with a peak at age 16-22 when young adults start to drive and ride motor bikes. The peak for male drivers aged 30-39 is interesting as it is mainly a result of a higher rate of car driver casualties in this age group compared to late twenties, as shown in Table 24 of Reported Road Casualties Scotland 2011. A similar pattern is seen for women, though it doesn't show up in the overall rates. Male motorcycle casualties peak in the 40-49 age band.

4.3.6. The rate of female passenger casualties increases with age and this is likely to be a reflection of the gender split of driving licence holders. Transport and Travel in Scotland 2011 reports Scottish Household Survey data showing 43 per cent of women aged 70-79 hold a driving licence compared to 79 per cent of men and 19 per cent of women aged 80 and over hold a driving licence compared to 60 per cent of men.

4.3.7. For children, males have a higher casualty rate than females, except for when travelling as a passenger where the female rate is higher. For females under 16 the casualty rate per thousand is similar for pedestrians and passengers at all ages where as for males, the casualty rate is much higher for pedestrians than it is for passengers. The male pedestrian casualty rate for 12-15s is almost twice as high as the passenger casualty rate but the difference between the male and female pedestrian casualty rate is similar for all ages.

Chart N: Casualty rates by age and road user type, change between 2004-2008 and 2007-2011.

Chart O: Casualty rates by age, mode and gender for all severities

Young Drivers

4.3.8. There were 50 fatalities and 485 serious injuries in accidents involving younger drivers (17-25) in 2011. There were 17 fatalities and 130 serious injuries to young drivers over the same period.

4.3.9. Accidents involving younger drivers (aged 17-25) accounted for over a quarter of fatalities and serious injuries in 2011. Accidents involving younger drivers accounted for 27 per cent of fatalities and 26 per cent of serious injuries, though obviously not all of these accidents will be the fault of the young driver.

4.3.10. Young drivers (aged 17-25) account for 9 per cent of fatalities and 7 per cent of serious injuries in 2011.

4.3.11. The proportion of casualties from accidents involving young drivers has fallen dramatically since the baseline period for the Road Safety Framework (2004-2008). The number of fatalities in accidents involving young drivers has halved. The number of serious injuries has fallen by 44 per cent and slight injuries have fallen by a third.

4.3.12. Large falls have also been seen over the last twelve months with a 22 per cent fall in fatalities, an 18 per cent fall in serious injuries and an 8 per cent reduction in slight injuries in accidents involving a driver aged 17-25 between 2010 and 2011.

4.3.13. The number of young driver fatalities has fallen by 51 per cent and the number of young drivers seriously injured has fallen by 45 per cent since the 2004-2008 baseline period for the Road Safety Framework. The number of young drivers slightly injured has fallen by over a third (35 per cent).

4.3.14. Between 2010 and 2011 young driver fatalities fell by 23 per cent, serious injuries fell by 13 per cent and slight injuries fell by 14 per cent.

4.3.15. Chart O shows casualty rates for young drivers by gender which peak for the 17-22 age band. The rates shown are per head of population and would be even higher if driving licence possession was taken into account. The Transport and Travel in Scotland publication shows that for those aged 17-19, a third of males have a full driving licence and only 17 per cent of females.

Chart P: Changes in the number of casualties in accidents involving young drivers.

Chart Q: Changes in the numbers of young driver (17-25) casualties over time.

Older Drivers

4.3.16. There were 31 fatalities and 198 serious injuries in accidents involving older drivers (70+) in 2011. There were 14 fatalities and 48 serious injuries to older drivers in the same period.

4.3.17. Accidents involving older drivers (aged 70+) accounted for 17 per cent of fatalities and 11 per cent of serious injuries in 2011.

4.3.18. Not all accidents involving an older driver will result in an older driver being injured. The proportion of fatalities and serious injuries that are drivers aged 70+ is relatively small. Older drivers (aged 70+) account for 8 per cent of fatalities and 3 per cent of serious injuries in 2011.

4.3.19. The number of fatalities in accidents involving older drivers has fallen by 7 per cent and the number of serious injuries by 1 per cent since the 2004-2008 baseline period for the Road Safety Framework. The number of slight injuries in accidents involving older drivers has fallen by 2 per cent.

4.3.20. Between 2010 and 2011 fatalities in accidents involving older drivers increased by 22 per cent, the number of serious injuries increased by 21 per cent and slight injuries increased by 7 per cent. The numbers in 2010 were very low so it is likely that the severe winter weather in 2010 impacted on these figures. 2011 figures are below those for 2009 except for fatalities as Chart R shows.

4.3.21. The number of older driver fatalities has fallen by 13 per cent and the number of older drivers seriously injured has fallen by 24 per cent since the 2004-2008 baseline period for the Road Safety Framework. The number of older drivers slightly injured has fallen by 4 per cent.

4.3.22. Between 2010 and 2011 older driver fatalities increased by one to 14, serious injuries fell by 14 per cent and slight injuries increased by two to 268.

Chart R: Casualties in accidents involving older drivers

Chart S: Older driver casualties over time.

4.3.23. As Chart O shows, the casualty rate per population for drivers over 70 is lower than for any other age band. A part of this will be the result of fewer people driving. Only 60 per cent of males over 80 hold a driving licence compared to an average of 76 for all males. Older people also drive less often. Transport and Travel in Scotland 2011 shows that less than a quarter of adults aged 70 or over with a full driving licence drive every day compared to 41 per cent of the population as a whole. Even adjusting for driving licence possession, the rate is well below the rate for younger and middle aged drivers.

Children

4.3.24. There were 7 fatalities and 203 serious injuries to children in 2011.

4.3.25. Children accounted for 4 per cent of fatalities and 11 per cent of serious injuries in 2011.

\Chart T: Change in the number of child casualties over time.

4.3.26. The number of child fatalities has fallen by 55 per cent and the number of child serious injuries has fallen by 38 per cent since the 2004-2008 baseline period for the Road Safety Framework. The number of children killed has fallen by 65 per cent using the three year average for the ``framework target. The number of children slightly injured has fallen by 34 per cent.

4.3.27. Between 2010 and 2011 child fatalities increased slightly from 5 to 7, however there is year to year fluctuation due to small numbers. The number of child serious injuries fell by 9 per cent and slight injuries fell by 4 per cent.

4.3.28. Child pedestrian fatalities have fallen faster than car passenger fatalities. In 1994-1998, 55 per cent of child fatalities were pedestrians, compared to 28 per cent car passengers. In 2004-2008 the proportions had evened out at 40 per cent pedestrian fatalities and 40 per cent car passenger fatalities. Data for the last three years (2009-2011) shows a swing the other way, a quarter of child fatalities were pedestrians and 56 per cent were car passengers. The proportions for serious injuries are 68 per cent pedestrian casualties and 17 per cent car passengers, though there has been little change in these proportions over time.

4.3.29. Charts N and O shows that the casualty rate for young children (aged 0-4) is higher for passenger casualties than it is for pedestrian casualties which is unsurprising given that a large proportion of this age group will only be pedestrians with a responsible adult. The rates then switch over for males with young males having a higher casualty rate as a pedestrian than as a passenger where as for females the rate is higher for passenger casualties than pedestrian casualties.

School Pupils

4.3.30. Over the last 5 years there has been an average of 2 fatalities and 31 serious injuries to school pupils.

4.3.31. School pupils account for 1 per cent of all fatalities (over the period 2007 to 2011) and 2 per cent of serious injuries in 2011. Twenty-two per cent of child fatalities and 18 per cent of serious injuries were recorded as being on their way to or from school over the period 2007-2011.

4.4 Road User behaviours

4.4.1. The STATS19 form only collects data on road side breath tests. Estimates of drink driving using STATS19 data and data from the procurator fiscal are calculated by DfT. These estimates are included in Table 22 of Reported Road Casualties Scotland along with more detail on the methodology.

4.4.2. The STATS19 form does include a section on contributory factors. This data provides an indication of the number of accidents where a particular factor plays a part, however they reflect the reporting officer's opinion at the time of reporting, and may not be the result of extensive investigation. Further details on Contributory Factors are included in Article 4 of Reported Road Casualties Scotland. Contributory factors have only been collected since 2005 so an average over 2005 to 2008 was calculated for comparisons with the baseline for the Road Safety Framework.

Speed

4.4.3. In 2011 there were 49 fatalities and 263 serious injuries where speed was recorded as a contributory factor. There were 125,221 speeding offences recorded by the police in 2011-12.

4.4.4. Accidents where speed (exceeding the speed limit or driving at inappropriate speed for the conditions) was considered a contributory factor accounted for 26 per cent of fatalities and 6 per cent of serious injuries in 2011.

4.4.5. It should be noted that fatal accidents will involve a full investigation where speed may be identified as a contributory factor and recorded on the STATS19 form. Where a full investigation does not take place it may not be possible for the officer at the scene to identify speed as a contributory factor.

4.4.6. The number of fatalities from accidents where speed is a contributory factor has fallen by 38 per cent and the number of serious injuries has fallen by 42 per cent since the baseline period for the Road Safety Framework. It is estimated that the number of slight injuries resulting from accidents where speed is a contributory factor has fallen by 30 per cent.

4.4.7. Between 2010 and 2011, it is estimated that fatalities in accidents where speed was a contributory factor fell by 18 per cent, serious injuries fell by 15 per cent and slight injuries fell by 12 per cent.

Chart U: Changes in casualty numbers where speed is a contributory factor.

Chart V: Motor vehicle offences recorded by the police in Scotland

4.4.8. The fall in casualties in accidents where speed is a contributory factor mirrors the fall in speeding offences recorded by the police as published by Scottish Government, and shown in Chart V. Speeding offences recorded by the police fell by 30 per cent between 2006-07 (the mid point of the road safety framework baseline) and 2009-10. Although the number of offences did increase between 2009-10 and 2011-12, it is now 23 per cent below the baseline period.

4.4.9. The majority of the offences relating to motor vehicles will be generated by police officers involved in proactive work, although there will be occasions when members of the public will report circumstances which they believe to be a Road Traffic Offence. Hence, the strength and deployment of the police forces will impact on the numbers of such offences recorded. An increase in recorded offences does not necessarily imply that the actual number of motorists speeding has increased, just that more are being caught.

Drink Drive

4.4.10. In 2011 it is estimated that there were 20 fatalities and 120 serious injuries as a result of drink driving. There were 7,445 offences of driving under the influence recorded by the police in 2011-12.

4.4.11. Drink drive accounted for 12 per cent of fatalities and 6 per cent of serious injuries in 2011.

4.4.12. The number of drink drive fatalities has fallen by 36 per cent and the number of serious injuries resulting from drink drive has fallen by 29 per cent since the 2004-2008 baseline period for the Road Safety Framework. It is estimated that the number of slight injuries resulting from drink drive has fallen by 22 per cent.

4.4.13. Between 2010 and 2011, it is estimated that drink drive fatalities fell by 20 per cent, serious injuries fell by 24 per cent and slight injuries fell by 17 per cent.

4.4.14. Chart V shows the trends in motoring offences recorded by the police in Scotland since 2003-04. There has been a steady fall in the number of offences of driving under the influence recorded since 2006-07 (the mid point of the Road Safety Framework baseline period). In 2011-12 recorded offences of driving under the influence were down 36 per cent on the baseline and 2 per cent on 2010-11. This supports the overall downward trends shown in Chart W.

4.4.15. The majority of the offences relating to drink drive will be generated by police officers involved in proactive or attendance at accidents, although there will be occasions when members of the public will report circumstances which they believe to be a Road Traffic Offence. If a large number of resources were targeted at drink drive, an increase in the number of recorded offences may be expected even if the actual number of people driving whilst over the limit remained unchanged.

Chart W: Casualties as a result of drink drive.

Distraction

4.4.16. In 2011 there were 5 fatalities and 70 serious injuries where distraction was recorded as a contributory factor.

4.4.17. Accidents where distraction (Distraction in vehicle, Distraction outside vehicle or Driver using mobile phone) was considered a contributory factor accounted for 3 per cent of fatalities and 4 per cent of serious injuries in 2011.

4.4.18. The number of fatalities from accidents where distraction is a contributory factor has fallen by 57 per cent since the baseline period for the Road Safety Framework, though the numbers are small which leads to large fluctuation from year to year as can be seen from Chart X. The number of serious injuries has increased by 12 per cent since the baseline and the number of slight injuries has fallen by 10 per cent.

4.4.19. Between 2010 and 2011, it is estimated that fatalities in accidents where distraction was a contributory factor fell by 50 per cent, where as serious injuries increased by 52 per cent and slight injuries increased by 5 per cent.

Chart X: Number of casualties in accidents where distraction is a contributory factor

4.4.20. It should be borne in mind that the contributory factors recorded will depend on the evidence available to the reporting officer. Some factors will be easier to determine than others so there could be some under recording for example in levels of distraction in car as this may not be obvious from witness reports.

4.4.21. Mobile phone offences recorded by the police are shown in Chart Y. This shows that number have been increasing in recent years and reached 29,800 in 2011-12. As noted above under speeding offences, the increase in numbers of mobile phone offences recorded does not necessarily indicate an increase in offenders as the numbers will depend on the level of police resource targeted at these offences.

4.4.22. There were over four times more speeding offences than mobile phone offences recorded in 2011-12. There was only a quarter as many offences of driving under the influence recorded compared to mobile phone offences.

Seatbelts

4.4.23. The use of seat belts is not recorded in the Stats 19 data, however some information is collected from police forces as part of the recorded crime statistical return. Chart Y shows that there were 32,700 seat belt offences recorded in 2011-12. The increase in numbers does not necessarily indicate an increase in actual offenders as the numbers will depend on the level of police resource targeted at these offences.

4.4.24. The number of seat belt offences recorded by the police in 2011-12 was just over a quarter of the number of speeding offences recorded. However over four times more seat belt offences than offences of driving under the influence were recorded in 2011-12.

Chart Y: Mobile phone and seat belt offences recorded by the police in Scotland