Article 1: Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020
Reported Road Casualties Scotland 2018
Article 1: Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020
Figure 8: Progress towards the 2020 casualty reduction targets
Article 1: Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2020
1. Introduction
Scotland's Road Safety Framework was launched in June 2009. It set out the vision for road safety in Scotland, the main priorities and issues and included Scotland-specific targets and milestones which were adopted from 2010.
|
Target |
2015 milestone % reduction |
2020 target % reduction |
|---|---|---|
|
People killed |
30% |
40% |
|
People seriously injured |
43% |
55% |
|
Children (aged < 16) killed |
35% |
50% |
|
Children (aged < 16) seriously injured |
50% |
65% |
Each reduction target will be assessed against the 2004-08 average. In addition to the targets a 10 per cent reduction target in the slight casualty rate will continue to be adopted.
The four main targets differ to those used previously, in that deaths have been separated out from serious injuries. In recent years the trends for deaths and serious injuries have differed and are therefore worth mentioning separately.
The targets are deliberately challenging, particularly for child deaths as the child fatality rate in Scotland is higher than in England and Wales. The child fatality target itself will be monitored using a 3 year rolling average due to the small numbers of fatalities each year.
To illustrate the reductions necessary the following table shows the 2004 to 2008 baseline, the latest position as well as the level of casualties inferred by the 2015 milestones and 2020 targets.
|
|
2004-2008 average |
2018 |
2015 milestone |
2020 target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
People killed |
292 |
161 |
204 |
175 |
|
People seriously injured |
2,605 |
1,582 |
1,484 |
1,172 |
|
Children (aged < 16) killed |
15 |
61 |
10 |
8 |
|
Children (aged < 16) seriously injured |
325 |
142 |
163 |
114 |
1. 2016-18 average
Charts showing indicative lines of progress are in figure 8. More detail about the calculation of these indicative lines is included in section 5 of this article.
2 Summary of Progress
The 2018 figures show:
- 161 people were reported as killed in 2018, 45 per cent (131) below the 2004-2008 average of 292.
- 1,582 people were reported as seriously injured in 2018, 39 per cent (1,023) below the 2004-2008 average of 2,605.
- 3 children were reported as killed in 2018, meaning the average for the 2018-2018 period was 6 a year, this is 63 per cent (9) below the 2004-2008 average of 15.
- 142 children were reported as seriously injured in 2018, 56 per cent (183) below the 2004-2008 average of 325.
- The slight casualty rate of 13.85 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2018 was 57 per cent below the 2004-2008 baseline average of 32.47.
Figure 8 shows progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2020.
3 Commentary
Numbers killed
As shown in Table la a reduction of 8.8 per cent compared to the 2015 milestone of 204 was required in 2018 to reach the target. The figure for 2018 is 161 which is 21% below the 2015 milestone figure of 204.
Numbers Seriously Injured
As shown in Table Ia below, a reduction of 13.2 per cent compared to the 2015 milestone of 1,484 was required in 2018 to reach this target. The 2018 figure of 1,582 is 7 per cent greater than this and therefore above the trajectory required to meet the target.
Children killed
The number of child fatalities is relatively small and the average of 6 over the last three years meets the 50 per cent reduction target set for 2020. Table Ib shows that the average number of child fatalities for 2018-2018 for each mode (apart from 'other') is below the 2004-2008 baseline.
Child pedestrian fatalities have fallen from an average of 6 per year in 2004-2008 to an average of 2 per year in 2018-2018.
Pedal Cycle child fatalities have fallen from an average of 2 per year in the baseline period to an average of zero in the last three years. The number of child fatalities as passengers in cars has fallen as well from an average of 6 per year in the baseline period to 2 per year in the 2018-2018 period,.
Children seriously injured
As shown in Table Ia below, a reduction of 19.3 per cent compared to the 2015 milestone of 163 was required in 2018 to remain on the trajectory for this target. The 2018 figure of 142 is 13 per cent below the trajectory.
Slightly injured casualties
Because of the limited availability of detailed reliable road traffic estimates for Scotland, Table Ib shows the numbers of slight casualties (rather than slight casualty rates) for categories of road user. The table also shows the overall total volume of traffic and the overall slight casualty rate.
Table Ib shows that slight injuries per million vehicle kilometres are 57 per cent below the 2004-2008 average.
The number of slight casualties has fallen compared to the baseline for all modes of transport. The largest reductions are seen for pedestrian, bus / coach and motorcycle, 60 per cent, 72 and 49 per cent respectively. Car users make up almost two thirds of slight casualties and there has been a reduction of 53% compared to the baseline period. Pedal cycles on the other hand have shown a 23 per cent decrease on the 2004-2008 average.
4. Other statistics for monitoring progress
Table 40 in the main section of this publication shows the baseline figures for each local authority area for the four targets relating to numbers killed and seriously injured (separately for trunk roads, local authority roads and all roads), along with the corresponding figures for each of the past 10 years and the latest five years' averages. Table 41 provides figures for each local authority area related to the numbers slightly injured, and Table 42 shows figures for each Police Force division related to all five targets. In addition, many other tables include the 2004-2008 baseline averages.
5. Assessing progress towards the casualty reduction targets
One way of assessing progress towards the targets is to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 2006 (mid point of the 2004 to 2008 average) and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, to the milestone for 2015 and from there to the target for 2020. This is the approach adopted by the GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. The indicative line starts at the baseline figure in 2006 as that is the middle year of the baseline period. Other approaches could have been used: there are many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for 2020.
The method adopted to produce the indicative target lines shown in Figure 8 involves a constant percentage reduction in each year after 2006 to the 2015 milestone, then a constant percentage reduction between 2015 and 2020. The resulting indicative target lines represent the percentages of the baseline averages which are shown in the table below. They are not straight lines, because of the compounding over the years effect of constant annual percentage reductions (to two decimal places, the falls are: 3.89% per annum for killed to meet the 2015 milestone and 3.02% between 2015 and 2020). For seriously injured casualties the falls are 6.06% and 4.61%. For child killed 4.67% and 4.37% or children seriously injured 7.41% and 6.90%.
Table Ia Constant percentage reductions needed to achieve 2015 and 2020 targets
|
Killed |
Serious |
Child killed
|
Child serious |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
% baseline (milestone from 2015) |
% reduction from baseline (milestone) |
% baseline (milestone from 2015) |
% reduction from baseline (milestone) |
% baseline (milestone from 2015) |
% reduction from baseline (milestone) |
% baseline (milestone from 2015) |
% reduction from baseline (milestone) |
|
|
2006 |
100% |
|
100% |
|
100% |
|
100% |
|
|
2007 |
96.1% |
3.9% |
93.9% |
6.1% |
95.3% |
4.7% |
92.6% |
7.4% |
|
2008 |
92.4% |
7.6% |
88.3% |
11.7% |
90.9% |
9.1% |
85.7% |
14.3% |
|
2009 |
88.8% |
11.2% |
82.9% |
17.1% |
86.6% |
13.4% |
79.4% |
20.6% |
|
2010 |
85.3% |
14.7% |
77.9% |
22.1% |
82.6% |
17.4% |
73.5% |
26.5% |
|
2011 |
82.0% |
18.0% |
73.2% |
26.8% |
78.7% |
21.3% |
68.0% |
32.0% |
|
2014 |
78.8% |
21.2% |
68.7% |
31.3% |
75.0% |
25.0% |
63.0% |
37.0% |
|
2013 |
75.8% |
24.2% |
64.6% |
35.4% |
71.5% |
28.5% |
58.3% |
41.7% |
|
2014 |
72.8% |
27.2% |
60.7% |
39.3% |
68.2% |
31.8% |
54.0% |
46.0% |
|
2015 |
70.0% |
30.0% |
57.0% |
43.0% |
65.0% |
35.0% |
50.0% |
50.0% |
|
2015 |
100% |
|
100% |
|
100% |
|
100% |
|
|
2018 |
97.0% |
3.0% |
95.4% |
4.6% |
95.6% |
4.4% |
93.1% |
6.9% |
|
2017 |
94.1% |
5.9% |
91.0% |
9.0% |
91.5% |
8.5% |
86.7% |
13.3% |
|
2018 |
91.2% |
8.8% |
86.8% |
13.2% |
87.5% |
12.5% |
80.7% |
19.3% |
|
2019 |
88.5% |
11.5% |
82.8% |
17.2% |
83.7% |
16.3% |
75.1% |
24.9% |
|
2020 |
85.8% |
14.2% |
79.0% |
21.0% |
80.0% |
20.0% |
69.9% |
30.1% |
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle | Motor cycle | Car | Bus/coach | Goods1 | Other2 | All road users | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-08 average | 65 | 9 | 42 | 162 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 292 |
| 2011 | 43 | 7 | 33 | 89 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 185 |
| 2012 | 59 | 9 | 21 | 73 | 1 | 13 | - | 176 |
| 2013 | 38 | 13 | 23 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 172 |
| 2014 | 59 | 8 | 30 | 94 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 203 |
| 2015 | 44 | 5 | 27 | 75 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 168 |
| 2016 | 32 | 8 | 30 | 106 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 191 |
| 2017 | 38 | 5 | 29 | 64 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 145 |
| 2018 | 34 | 6 | 33 | 75 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 161 |
| 14-18 ave | 41 | 6 | 30 | 83 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 174 |
| 2020 target | 39 | 6 | 25 | 97 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 175 |
| Percent changes: | ||||||||
| 2018 on 2017 | -11 | 20 | 14 | 17 | - | 67 | 50 | 11 |
| 2018 on 2004-08 average | -47 | -35 | -21 | -54 | 150 | -57 | 150 | -45 |
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle | Motor cycle | Car | Bus/coach | Goods1 | Other2 | All road users | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-08 average | 656 | 134 | 371 | 1,258 | 55 | 82 | 51 | 2,605 |
| 2011 | 515 | 156 | 291 | 758 | 51 | 63 | 44 | 1,878 |
| 2012 | 461 | 169 | 343 | 847 | 44 | 68 | 49 | 1,981 |
| 2013 | 401 | 149 | 281 | 718 | 34 | 45 | 39 | 1,667 |
| 2014 | 420 | 159 | 327 | 686 | 28 | 50 | 31 | 1,701 |
| 2015 | 424 | 164 | 258 | 638 | 49 | 46 | 23 | 1,602 |
| 2016 | 397 | 148 | 268 | 762 | 42 | 54 | 26 | 1,697 |
| 2017 | 380 | 171 | 281 | 662 | 23 | 45 | 32 | 1,594 |
| 2018 | 362 | 156 | 283 | 667 | 35 | 53 | 26 | 1,582 |
| 14-18 ave | 397 | 160 | 283 | 683 | 35 | 50 | 28 | 1,635 |
| 2020 target | 295 | 60 | 167 | 566 | 25 | 37 | 23 | 1,172 |
| Percent changes: | ||||||||
| 2018 on 2017 | -5 | -9 | 1 | 1 | 52 | 18 | -19 | -1 |
| 2018 on 2004-08 average | -45 | 16 | -24 | -47 | -36 | -35 | -49 | -39 |
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle | Motor cycle | Car | Bus/coach | Goods1 | Other2 | All road users | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-08 average | 6 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2011 | 2 | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | 7 |
| 2012 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 2 |
| 2013 | 5 | 2 | - | 2 | - | - | - | 9 |
| 2014 | 3 | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | 7 |
| 2015 | 3 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 4 |
| 2016 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - | - | - | 12 |
| 2017 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 |
| 2018 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 3 |
| 14-18 ave | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | 0 | 6 |
| 2020 target | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 16-18 ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | 0 | 6 |
| Percent changes: | ||||||||
| 16-2018 on 2004-08 average | -61 | -86 | -17 | -62 | - | -100 | 67 | -63 |
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle | Motor cycle | Car | Bus/coach | Goods1 | Other2 | All road users | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-08 average | 218 | 29 | 8 | 62 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 325 |
| 2011 | 139 | 23 | 2 | 34 | 4 | - | 1 | 203 |
| 2012 | 132 | 21 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 5 | - | 194 |
| 2013 | 91 | 11 | 1 | 33 | 3 | - | 2 | 141 |
| 2014 | 116 | 18 | 4 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 171 |
| 2015 | 97 | 11 | 1 | 27 | 2 | - | 2 | 140 |
| 2016 | 105 | 8 | 4 | 46 | 2 | 2 | - | 167 |
| 2017 | 107 | 10 | 4 | 29 | - | 3 | - | 153 |
| 2018 | 96 | 15 | 1 | 29 | - | - | 1 | 142 |
| 14-18 ave | 104 | 12 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 155 |
| 2020 target | 76 | 10 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 114 |
| Percent changes: | ||||||||
| 2018 on 2017 | -10 | 50 | -75 | - | n/a | -100 | n/a | -7 |
| 2018 on 2004-08 average | -56 | -49 | -87 | -53 | -100 | -100 | -71 | -56 |
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle | Motor cycle | Car | Bus/coach | Goods1 | Other2 | All road users | Traffic | Slight casualty rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| numbers | mill veh-km | per 100 mill veh-km | ||||||||
| 2004-08 average | 2,135 | 613 | 637 | 9,187 | 693 | 503 | 431 | 14,200 | 43,736 | 32.47 |
| 2011 | 1,507 | 661 | 482 | 6,930 | 453 | 385 | 304 | 10,722 | 43,390 | 24.71 |
| 2012 | 1,459 | 727 | 503 | 6,745 | 396 | 411 | 314 | 10,555 | 43,549 | 24.24 |
| 2013 | 1,295 | 724 | 471 | 6,157 | 358 | 391 | 257 | 9,653 | 43,840 | 22.02 |
| 2014 | 1,266 | 728 | 469 | 6,006 | 262 | 402 | 265 | 9,398 | 44,839 | 20.96 |
| 2015 | 1,222 | 628 | 450 | 6,000 | 282 | 411 | 214 | 9,207 | 45,374 | 20.29 |
| 2016 | 1,233 | 634 | 411 | 5,829 | 257 | 413 | 232 | 9,009 | 46,459 | 19.39 |
| 2017 | 945 | 552 | 310 | 4,981 | 332 | 354 | 220 | 7,694 | 47,986 | 16.03 |
| 2018 | 857 | 475 | 324 | 4,337 | 193 | 334 | 148 | 6,668 | 48,137 | 13.85 |
| 13-17 ave | 1,105 | 603 | 393 | 5,431 | 265 | 383 | 216 | 8,395 | 45,341 | 18.52 |
| 2020 target | 29.22 | |||||||||
| Percent changes: | ||||||||||
| 2018 on 2017 | -9 | -14 | 5 | -13 | -42 | -6 | -33 | -13 | 0 | -14 |
| 2018 on 2004-08 average | -60 | -23 | -49 | -53 | -72 | -34 | -66 | -53 | 10 | -57 |
1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport