Current and Emerging Challenges

Current and Emerging Challenges

These challenges, either within or outwith the road safety system, have been identified to make an impact now, or in the near future, on road safety generally and, more particularly, on the new Framework. They have been encapsulated in twelve themes which not only map easily onto the Safe System, but also align with Scottish Government's policies, plans and strategies. A high-level summary of each challenge and its impact on road casualties with more-evidenced narrative, is provided below.

Climate Emergency its potential effects on road casualties and the benefits that road safety can bring

Active & Sustainable Travel its potential effects on road casualties and the benefits that road safety can bring

Health improving road safety to reduce impact on public health services

Safe System implementing the Safe System at all levels

Speed Management road users not travelling at appropriate speeds, its effect on road casualties

Road Safety Delivery delivering a shift in resources and funding to focus on road safety delivery

Driving/Riding for Work & Workplace Culture its effect on road casualties

Emerging Technologies consideration of benefits and challenges of emerging technologies on road safety

Enforcement/Deterrence increasing the visibility of road policing enforcement

Road Infrastructure & Maintenance decreasing road maintenance/assets and its impact on road casualties

Post-Crash Response improving the fast and effective response to road collisions

Road Users unsafe road use by certain types of Road Users and its effect on road casualties

Climate emergency: the potential effects of climate change on road casualties and the benefits road safety initiatives can bring

In direct response to the Paris Agreement, Scotland's landmark Climate Change Act^[19] is the toughest, most ambitious legislative framework in the world. It commits Scotland to becoming a net-zero society by 2045 five years before the rest of the UK - in line with advice from the government's independent expert advisors, the UK Committee on Climate Change. The Scottish Government will also respond to the global climate emergency by adopting an ambitious new target to reduce emissions by 75% by 2030 the toughest statutory target of any country in the world.

Transport is currently Scotland's largest sectoral emitter, responsible for 37% of Scotland's total greenhouse gases in 2017. The largest source of transport emissions is road vehicles, with cars contributing 40% and Light Goods Vehicles (LGVs) and Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs) responsible for 25%.^[20]

The National Transport Strategy 2 Strategic Environmental Assessment report^[21] states:
"our transport system will adapt to remain resilient and reduce the harmful effects on future generations, and will help deliver our net-zero target". This will be tackled through a range of actions including an ambition to phase out the need for new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2032 and promoting greener, cleaner choices by reinforcing the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy to promote and design our transport system so that walking, cycling and public and shared transport are promoted.

Figure 10: Share of greenhouse gas emissions by mode in 2017

Road safety, as with other cross-cutting policies, must take the climate emergency into consideration and this Framework will seek to do just that.

Changes in temperature and rainfall, along with extreme weather events caused by climate change, will affect many aspects of our lives including road safety. There will be more torrential rain, higher summer temperatures and heat waves that affect the conservation of the pavement and road mobility. Road users will need to adapt and gain the knowledge, skills and experience required to become safe and responsible users under such conditions. Employers and employees should be encouraged to apply the Severe weather: fair work charter^[22] in order to mitigate road safety risk within their organisations.

Non-road safety-related initiatives implemented to tackle the climate emergency may also have negative effects on road safety. For example, the roll-out of more electric vehicles - be it cars, vans or buses - in the next decade will continue to pose a road safety risk due to their lack of noise emissions at low speeds^[23].

In relation to vehicle emissions reduction and air quality improvement, speed management - a pillar of the Safe System, whose primary role is improving road safety - also has the potential to reduce vehicle emissions by smoothing traffic flow and thus contributing on several fronts to providing a safer environment to facilitate increases in walking, wheeling and cycling. A 2017 UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence Public Health Advisory Committee was tasked with looking at air pollutants from vehicles^[24]. It advised that reducing 'stop-go' driving can help lower these. It also found traffic-calming measures like speed bumps could increase emissions. Many traffic-calming measures are promoted as a way of making 20 mph speed limits 'self-enforcing' to ensure compliance. The Public Health Advisory committee advised the UK Government to 'promote a smooth driving style' via a range of measures that should include implementing 20 mph limits in urban areas where speeds are already low, but without additional calming measures. The Department for Transport's three-year evaluation of the HGV speed increase in England and Wales^[25] (from 2015) published in July 2020, has helped develop our understanding of the impact of the HGV speed limit change on a number of fronts including: driver behaviour; vehicle speeds; the economy; the environment; and most importantly, road safety. Its key findings are that there has been no statistically significant change in the number of accidents involving at least one HGV on all single and dual carriageway roads and no attributable change in noise and air quality due to the policy change. Our own evaluation of the potential impacts of increasing speed limits for HGVs in Scotland^[26] shows there are small safety disbenefits and marginal environmental impacts; There are small safety benefits and increases in CO2e emissions when restricting the speed limit change to trunk roads. Conversely, when the speed limit increase is applied to all rural roads there are small safety disbenefits and reductions in CO2e.

Finally, in relation to promoting greener, cleaner choices by reinforcing the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy of NTS2, the new Framework consistently applies the Hierarchy on road safety matters; we expect to have intermediate outcome targets to 2030 for pedestrians and cyclists and we propose the following two strategic actions in relation to the Hierarchy:

• ensure road safety is a key focus of active & sustainable travel in Scotland
• all road users will understand their road safety responsibilities and improve their attitudes and behaviours to ensure the safety of themselves and other road users.

Active & Sustainable travel: its potential effects on road casualties and the benefits road safety can bring

The Scottish Government is committed to achieving a more active and healthier nation. It is also committed to the long-term vision for active travel in Scotland^[27], where communities are shaped around people, with walking and cycling the most popular choice for shorter, everyday journeys. In order to encourage more people to choose active travel, the Scottish Government doubled the active travel budget to 80 million in 2018-19 and it is now at a record 100.5 million for 2020-21 with the commitment to provide over 500 million over five years for large scale, transformational active travel infrastructure projects, access to bikes and behaviour change schemes^[28]. The main beneficiaries of this investment are local authorities, working in partnership with active travel stakeholders. In 2020, there are over 280 walking, cycling and place-making infrastructure partnership projects underway, seeking to deliver better segregated cycleways and walkways to make our towns and cities friendlier and safer. The funding is also used for urban design projects, e-bike grants, and behaviour change and education projects.

Transport Scotland invests over 1 billion per year in active and sustainable transport. Since 2012, it has invested almost 30 million to establish one of the most comprehensive electric vehicle charging networks in Europe to support our 2032 ambition to phase out the need for new petrol and diesel cars and vans. It made an extra 17 million available through its Low Carbon Transport Loan earlier this year, and will expand the scheme to include used electric vehicles. Its transformational Bus Partnership Fund for local authorities and the roll out of infrastructure for the trunk road network to prioritise high-occupancy vehicles, such as buses, will be used in conjunction with new partnership powers from the Transport (Scotland) Act 2019, to secure reciprocal commitments on a range of bus measures to improve the bus offer and support the viability of bus networks across the country. On 16 July 2020, and in response to Covid-19 pandemic, the Scottish Government announced it was providing 10 million to support the rapid deployment of bus priority infrastructure^[29] by local authorities. At the same time, to breathe new life into mid-life buses and to improve air quality, the 8.8 million Bus Emissions Abatement Retrofit scheme now has improved grant thresholds for operators. As previously noted, electric vehicles will continue to pose a road safety risk at low speeds due to the lack of noise they create^[30].

We envisage that more and more people, will opt to cycle (including on e-bikes^[31]), walk or use micromobility devices - such as e-scooters, hoverboards or segways - be it for environmental considerations in response to our climate emergency, or for reasons of personal health and fitness - which will result in more vulnerable people on the roads. In early July 2020, the Department for Transport (DfT) introduced new regulations and guidance to allow rental e-scooter^[32] trials to start for the next year across towns and cities in the UK. Stronger active mobility policies, especially in urban areas, can be a major game changer in reducing CO2 emissions, improving air quality, and reducing congestion. We know the perception of urban and rural roads as unsafe is a barrier against these everyday journeys. That is why measures which encourage these mobility choices also need to take safety considerations into account systematically, as does this new Framework. The UK Government, as part of its Future of Mobility Regulatory Review, following the publication of the Future of Mobility: Urban Strategy^[33] in March 2019 recently closed a call for views and evidence^[34] from all those with an interest in what an innovative and flexible regulatory framework should look like for emerging transport technologies and business models, recognising their benefits to society, the environment and the economy, but also the risks they could pose if left unmanaged.

As the active travel agenda unfolds (pedal cycle traffic is estimated to have increased by 15 per cent since 2008), Scotland may face the so-called 'safety in numbers' effect which can be defined as follows: with significant increases in walking and cycling, the safety rate improves, but the actual number of pedestrian and cyclist casualties may increase. This could be exacerbated by the current lack of knowledge of the Highway Code^[35] among drivers in relation to ensuring the safety of cyclists and pedestrians.

Since the Mid-term Review of the current Framework, road safety initiatives have focused on making walking and cycling safer but have not had the opportunity to tap into the record-level of Scottish Government funding for Active Travel. Due to Covid-19 pandemic and to better enable physical distancing, the Scottish Government launched late April 2020 a 30 million Spaces for People fund^[36] for a new infrastructure programme for pop-up walking and cycling routes or temporary improvements to existing routes. More importantly, there appears to be a misalignment between the road safety benefits of supporting active travel and the benefits to the active travel in supporting road safety. There is for example a different approach towards mandating, or not, cycle (and e-scooter) helmet-wearing. Additionally, the traditional accident investigation and prevention approach on trunk roads have not met the expectation of stakeholders and campaign groups with respect to active travel.

Due to their numbers and greater vulnerability, pedestrians continue to represent the second-largest category of killed and seriously-injured by mode of transport (27% in and 24% respectively for provisional 2019) after car users (46,4% and 46,5% respectively for provisional 2019). 95% of pedestrian casualties for provisional 2019 occurred on built-up roads.

Although the number of cyclists killed remains statistically very low, the number of seriously-injured is almost identical in actual 2018 to that of 2008. 63% of all fatalities over the last three years to 2019 were on non-built up roads. In 2017, cyclists accounted for 1.5% of all journeys and 0.6% of traffic in Scotland but, disproportionally, 7.7% of all casualties. Per unit distance travelled, pedal cyclists in Britain have approximately twice the level of risk of being killed than is the case in the Netherlands and Denmark where, of course, cycling is far more common.^[37]

Health: improving road safety to reduce impact on public health services

This challenge looks at health holistically as issues of fatal and serious injuries sustained post-collision are covered in the separate post-crash response challenge.

Given the significant and rising costs associated with ill-health and related failure demand, there is both an economic and health benefit to a renewed focus on preventative interventions which reduce pressure on other parts of the public sector and contribute to Scotland's long-term sustainable economic growth. Public health reform is an equal partnership between central and local government, recognising that improving public health is a shared responsibility at both national and local level. Reform aims to improve public health through a 'whole system' approach, focused on prevention and early intervention, and creating the conditions for wellbeing in our communities.

Road casualty reduction is an important contributor to improving Scotland's public health by preventing premature death and injury, particularly among motorcyclists, young people, cyclists and pedestrians. Public health and road safety are linked by a number of factors, such as the speed and volume of traffic, which can cause injuries and prevent opportunities for healthy activity outside the home^[38]. Safer roads and road use pave the way for more people cycling and walking which, in turn, improves their health and increases the numbers living in vibrant, healthy and safe communities. Transport Scotland's published the Good Practice Guide on implementing 20 mph speed limits^[39] to promote the introduction of 20 mph and are supportive of these limits in the right environment. The only major UK study into the effectiveness of sign-only 20 mph speed limits was published by the Department for Transport in 2018.^[40] This three year study found that, overall, 20 mph limits are perceived to be beneficial for cyclists and pedestrians.

Thus, improved road safety would directly assist in achieving the Public Health Priority of a Scotland where we live in vibrant, healthy and safe places and communities, as well as Scotland's National Performance Framework Health outcome: We are healthy and active.

However, public perception seems to be that road death is not a public health issue when compared to other causes of sudden death such as murder or knife crime. This perception is not evidenced by mortality statistics, which show, in 2018, around three times more people were killed on the roads than were victims of murder^[41].

In addition, data collected on discharges from non-obstetric and non-psychiatric acute hospitals consistently show the c. 3000 per year admissions for those seriously-injured in collisions (those requiring at least an overnight stay) is consistently double that of casualties reported via STATS 19^[42] (c. 1600 per year). Looking to the future, this disparity needs to be addressed in order to understand the true picture of road casualties. This may become more of a problem in the future as people walk and cycle more and continue to report injuries through hospitals rather than the police.

Finally, the health of our road users needs to be appropriate for the mode of transport. On physical health, good eyesight can become problematic with age and may lead to greater use of contributory factors such as 'failed to look properly' or 'failed to judge other person's path/speed'. From a mental health perspective and following a research carried out by Mercedes in 2017^[43], van drivers, particularly in the Gig economy, are especially prone to poor mental health from a combination of unpredictable journey times, traffic congestion, tight deadlines, high workload and lack of social interaction, all of which can lead to stress and fatigue, thus creating a road safety risk to themselves and others.

The Safe System: implementing it at all levels

While the Safe System Approach has been adopted in Scotland, there seems to be a lack of knowledge, among stakeholders and members of the public, on what it is and what it means for road safety professionals and for individual road users.

As a result, many professionals continue to use traditional delivery methods which seek to correct human behaviour, rather than acknowledge that collisions are also related to the inherent risks of the existing infrastructure.

Unlike this traditional approach, the Safe System accepts that human error is no longer the primary cause of collisions. Rather, a failure of the road system is what results in death or serious injury. A Safe System also shapes interventions to meet the long-term goal of zero deaths and serious injuries, rather than relying on traditional road safety interventions to reduce collisions. The key objective for those managing the roads is to recognise that, when collisions occur as a result of road user error, high-severity outcomes, such as death and serious injury, need not occur. Therefore, roads and infrastructure need to be 'forgiving' and take account of human vulnerability.

In many areas, this will require a significant shift in how road safety is delivered. We need to educate all those involved on what the Safe System entails, and why it is important everyone plays their part to ensure it is fully-implemented within every aspect of road safety delivery.

This will be difficult in the current economic environment where many areas are already unable to react to and address collision causation factors. Therefore, switching to a more proactive/preventative approach will require significant buy-in from leadership, followed up by decisive action to align objectives in public health, occupational health and safety, environmental, and social justice, in order to maximise the benefits of cost-effective investment in improving the various infrastructures. Fully-implementing the Safe System can produce economic savings for a society, as the costs of preventing casualties are usually substantially less than the actual costs of treating these casualties. Currently, road collision costs, including for casualties, represent around 0.5% of Scotland's gross domestic product^[44].

Speed Management: road users not travelling at appropriate speeds, its effect on road casualties

There continues to be a cultural speed issue in Scotland, evidenced through the Road Safety Information Tracking Study (RITS) of Driver attitudes and behaviour^[45] which found that, since 2012, reported speeding behaviours have remained mostly unchanged, at around 55%, though a downward trend is more apparent since July 2015. There are still too many collisions related to non-compliance with the speed limits or not driving/riding to the conditions. In Scotland overall, the number of fatalities due to speeding has decreased from 30% in 2009 to 17% in 2018. The following graph, which shows casualties by severity and speed limit, clearly shows more than half of all fatalities occur on 60 mph roads (typically rural roads) and almost half of serious injuries (and 82% of all pedestrian serious casualties) occur on 30 mph roads (mostly urban and sub-urban roads).

Casualties by severity and speed limit

The graph below shows average speeds by road and vehicle type analysed at 26 sampled locations in June 2017 in a one-off exercise, using four to ten counters per road type. It indicates low levels of national speed compliance - mostly from HGVs on dual and single carriageways. It is worth noting, before Average Speed Cameras were deployed on the A90, one in five vehicles were estimated to be exceeding the speed limit by 10 mph or more. This figure is now approximately 1-in-5000. The same improvement has been seen across other routes where such systems have been installed.

Average Speeds by Road and Vehicle type in Scotland (June 2017)

In relation to non-national speed limits, such as 20 mph zones, road policing operations, observational studies and/or self-reporting data all indicate a low level of speed compliance. For example, the RAC Report on Motoring 2019^[48] found non-compliance with 20 mph was up from 39% to 44%. The three-year study by the Department for Transport into the effectiveness of sign-only 20 mph limits^[49] found that lack of enforcement and lack of concern about the consequences of speeding were the primary reasons given for non-compliance.

Given the above, it may be beneficial to consider undertaking a National Speed Management Review.

Road Safety Delivery: delivering a shift in resources and funding to focus on road safety

Road safety funding practices vary, even across areas whose road safety records are favourable, suggesting there is not a 'one size fits all' approach.

More recently, in July 2019, the Road Safety Foundation assessed the effectiveness of road safety engineering in local government across the UK^[50], including Scotland. It found many local authority practitioners share three main concerns:

• Low levels of resourcing within engineering teams, resulting in a large proportion of time responding to public concerns and administrative duties, rather than designing and implementing life-saving schemes
• The lack of capital investment for engineering improvements
• The inability to compete with other core local authorities services, and lack of recognition (at a senior level) of both the scale of the problem of road trauma and the real opportunity to tackle the issue

Diminishing financial resources have coincided with a reduction in the number of 'traditional' road safety officers (some authorities no longer have any) and engineers across Scotland. Not only has this produced a knowledge/skills drain within local authorities but, without professional and appropriate resources, there is a significant reduction in the priority which should be given to road casualty reduction both on the roads and in our educational establishments. Furthermore, the opportunities to share information and good practice are also reduced.

Currently, the estimated spend, at both national and local level, is not commensurate with the value of preventing deaths and serious injuries; in 2018, the cost of collisions to the Scottish economy was 1 billion, compared to an estimated spend of 100 million in 2017. Further analytical work by Transport Scotland has calculated a benefit-cost ratio of 4:1^[51], when taking into account the overall road safety spend, encompassing police, justice and health resources, compared to the cost of casualties that may have been prevented in 2017. If widely-communicated and recognised at every level of government, there is a compelling case for decision-makers to re-prioritise road safety spend within overall budgets by better aligning public health, occupational health and safety, environmental, and social justice objectives with road safety objectives. This would help maximise the benefits of cost-effective investment and funding in road safety through co-funding opportunities from various budget lines.

With this in mind, there is an opportunity to prepare a strong business case for road safety investment, using a 'willingness to pay' model: such a cost-benefit analysis would assess the value of a life saved against the negative impact of road collisions on, for example, increased journey time, to make road safety initiatives compete successfully with other funding demands.

The current Framework to 2020 established and maintained strong partnership working across the whole road safety community in Scotland, and therein lies its success. However, significant challenges lie ahead, given the increased pressure to perform better with fewer resources. With this in mind, the Framework Strategic Partnership Board developed an approach in summer 2018 which highlighted the need to strengthen how we work collaboratively, particularly at local level, to co-design and deliver road safety change. This has been named the 'Team Scotland' approach.

The main aim of Team Scotland is to ensure better connections between national and local activity and provide an evidence base for road safety delivery. Team Scotland aims to work closely with delivery partners to understand local systems and their relationship to national systems; identify those initiatives being undertaken at local level; learn from best practice; and evaluate results with a view to sharing best practice. It is also about delivering a wider understanding of the challenges we all face, and working more closely to devise and implement solutions for those challenges. The Team Scotland approach has already begun and will continue to run through the new framework. In order to further improve connectivity between national and local levels, we have introduced a new tier in the Framework governance structure - the Local Partnership Forums (see Section 8).

Driving/Riding for Work and Workplace culture: its effect on road casualties

We must strive for a future where no one is killed while driving/riding for work. Health and Safety Executive (HSE) figures^[52] highlight that, in 2018-19, driving accounted for 18 of the 29 work-related deaths in Scotland, making driving the most dangerous work activity. This situation poses a risk to every road user, even more so with the increase in Light Goods Vehicles (LGVs) on our roads and the growth of the "Grey Fleet^[53]".

In 2018 in the UK, LGVs were the second most-registered vehicles, coming just behind cars. Over the last 24 years, vehicle stock has increased by 51%. The largest increase was for LGVs (88%), followed by motorcycles (72%), and cars (49%), and this trend looks set to continue. According to the Freight Transport Association^[54], there is a common misconception that the increase in vans on our roads is due to a soaring demand for online shopping, as part of the Gig economy: this is not true, as only one in ten vans is used for this purpose. Rather, the majority is used to support an array of trade professions, such as plumbers and gardeners, enabling them to travel to and from jobs with their equipment on board.

Health and safety law applies to work activities on the road in the same way it does to all work activities. All workers are entitled to work in a safe environment where risks to their health and safety are properly controlled. Employers have duties under health and safety legislation for on-the-road work activities, and this also extends to the self-employed. In general, this requires an adequate and suitable generic assessment of risks for the various types of driving tasks undertaken within every organisation, including: delivering goods; travelling to meetings; call-outs; emergency response; vehicle recovery operations; and courier delivery; to name but a few. In addition, employers must consider the safety-critical features of: the journey purpose; the vehicle to be used; and the driver/rider him/herself; as these are equally important factors in collision risk. Unfortunately, the HSE does not recognise the driving seat as a place of work and compliance to health and safety legislation for on-the-road work activities varies due to the size of the company and their commitment to road safety.

A recent IAM RoadSmart White paper^[55] highlights some alarming practices and attitudes when it comes to employers, with almost half of them expecting employees to answer their phone at any time, including while driving for work.

The Gig economy is another area of great concern as drivers/riders have to 'chase' work, often with little or no training, nor any safety equipment, which often results in them taking greater risks and having poor wellbeing on the road^[56].

A variety of respected organisations, such as HSE, the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents (RoSPA), and the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL), have consistently indicated between one quarter and one third of all collisions in the UK involve someone driving for work. In Scotland in 2018, there were 8,411 reported road casualties, of which 1,299 occurred where the journey was work-related. These resulted in nine pedestrian deaths, three in a car/taxi, and three in an LGV. 441 of those injured were travelling in a car/taxi, 272 were pedestrians, and 193 were in an LGV. In 2018, the greatest number of those killed or seriously injured (KSI) were aged 53-61 - 280 (including seven fatalities), with the lowest number being for the over 60s - 123 KSIs (including five fatalities).

Transport Scotland has estimated that 1.1 million private vehicles are used for business on Scotland's roads. This 'Grey Fleet' can have a significant effect on both the risk profile and the operational costs of any organisation. Research carried out by Driving for Better Business highlighted a number of concerns around compliance with legislation and the wellbeing of employees driving for work^[57]. These include: mobile phone usage; health & safety; business insurance; regular servicing; and vehicle safety checks. We need to ensure the 'Grey Fleet' becomes the 'black and white fleet'.

In addition with HGVs travelling 2.6 billion kilometres on Scotland's roads every year^[58], the need for these vehicles to be properly-maintained and used safely is paramount. Concerns include issues such as driver fatigue and poorly loaded/insecure vehicles.

The Scottish Occupational Road Safety Alliance (ScORSA) was created to raise awareness of managing occupational road risk and to promote occupational road safety within Scotland, so that road safety becomes ingrained in the workplace culture. This would, for example, include applying the Severe weather: fair work charter^[59]. ScORSA is the only dedicated source of free information, guidance and advice in relation to the management of occupational road risk specifically aimed at enterprises based in Scotland.

Emerging Technologies: consideration of benefits and challenges of technology on road safety

Scotland needs to be ready to embrace new trends, such as connectivity and automation, which will, in the future, create new road safety opportunities by reducing the role of human error (driver/rider error or action was reported in 65% of all reported accidents in 2018, with 'failed to look properly' the most common type at 32%). However, as we remain in the transition phase, new risks will emerge; these include vehicles with a wide range of different automated/connected capability, which will have to operate in mixed traffic conditions alongside 'traditional' vehicles and vulnerable road users, such as motorcyclists, cyclists and pedestrians.

A specific EU strategy on connected and automated mobility was adopted as part of the "Third Mobility Package". The strategy offers tremendous potential in reducing and eventually eliminating driver error, but it also creates new challenges, such as cyber-security and the interaction with traditional' vehicles and other road users, both of which need to be carefully monitored.

In Scotland in 2019, a provisional total of 4,557 car users were injured in road collisions, representing 60% of all casualties. Of these, 78 died. There were provisionally 1,243 pedestrian casualties (16% of total casualties), of whom 46 died; 564 pedal cycle casualties (7% of the total) of whom 8 died; and 519 motorcycle casualties (7% of the total), of whom 25 died.

Following adoption of an EU regulation on the general safety of motor vehicles and the protection of vehicle occupants and vulnerable road users, as of mid-2022, it will be mandatory for all new cars on the EU market to be equipped with advanced safety systems. An estimated 7,300 deaths and 38,900 serious injuries will be avoided over a ten-year period within the EU. The infrastructure safety management work will include network-wide risk mapping and reinforced provisions for vulnerable road users. The former UK Government has committed to align its vehicle standards to that of the EU.

Using current figures, and based on the population of Scotland within the EU, the impact of adopting vehicle safety measures in Scotland could prevent around seven fatalities and 39 serious injuries per year.

New in-vehicle safety and driver assistance systems can both mitigate the severity, and reduce the likelihood, of collisions. Furthermore, the development of safer vehicles has had a significant, positive impact on crash survivability. While road user behaviour accounts for the majority of crashes, the Safe System also identifies the need to make crashes survivable. Research and development in this area is essential.

Initially, when the fleet is mixed, there will be complex interactions between autonomous vehicles, human-driven vehicles, pedestrians and other road users. These interactions would be a first for both technology and human, and the challenge will require navigating unfamiliar and difficult situations which would typically require some form of human judgement. Another key factor is the possibility of road users purposely interfering with Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) which brings a further risk into the mix.

In Scotland in 2018, there were 230 bus and coach-users injured, of whom 35 suffered serious injuries (two died). There were also 319 casualties who were travelling in Low Goods Vehicles (LGVs), 73 Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs), 104 in taxis, 20 in minibuses and 56 people using another means of transport.

The development and deployment of CAVs has the potential to bring transformative change to peoples' lives, not just in how we travel, but in how we work, where we live, the environment, and safety. The CAV Roadmap for Scotland^[60] sets out the future vision for how Scotland can benefit from and contribute to this exciting and innovative sector.

It supports the Programme for Government commitments to put sustainable transport at the heart of decisionmaking and ensure that transport plays a key role in delivering net zero emissions by 2045.

The CAV Roadmap is aligned with Scotland's Future Intelligent Transport Systems Strategy and our draft National Transport Strategy (NTS2), which sets out a compelling vision for the transport system over the next 20 years, one that protects our climate and improves lives.

New technology is also being used in road infrastructure to mitigate risk. Scotland's Intelligent Transport System (ITS) makes use of Automatic Number Plate Recognition, Average Speed Cameras and Variable Message Signs to improve the journey. In addition, Temporary Average Speed Cameras at Roadworks (TASCAR) contribute towards the safety of road workers and road users, as well as improving traffic flow.

In-car technology and telematics will also play a part in helping to manage risk. The motor insurance industry recognised this and many companies offer reduced premiums, when technology helps reduce risk, particularly for young drivers. Since then, there has been a greater uptake of telematics through black box technology and, more recently, via phone apps.

With the rise in technology within and outwith vehicles, there is an ever-growing risk of overconfidence in, and over-reliance on, technology. This could lead to road users adopting more risky behaviours, believing the technology will accommodate them and adapt appropriately. Furthermore, technology is still largely unfamiliar and may lead to increased distraction and/or improper use which, in turn, increases collision risk. Hence, new and emerging technologies must be researched and evaluated to evidence whether they help or hinder road safety.

Scotland needs to be sure it embraces technology for the right reasons and this will involve not only partnership working, but also substantial investment and intensive research to determine the benefits, risks and challenges before implementing new technology.

Enforcement/Deterrence: increasing enforcement of the rules of the road

Enforcement is an essential part of the Safe System. A Brake and Direct Line survey found almost two in three (62%) drivers said more enforcement would persuade them to take more care on the road^[61]. This would enhance road safety but this reality is felt differently by different road users. The latest RITS Driver attitudes and behaviour tracking study^[62] identified the perception of 'you are more likely to be stopped by the police this year' continues to show a downward trend, now at its lowest -32%. In addition, a three-year study by the Department for Transport into the effectiveness of sign-only 20 mph limits^[63] showed lack of enforcement and lack of concern about the consequences of speeding were identified as the primary reasons for non-compliance.

Given this, there is an issue of road users not perceiving the police to be visible enough for them to improve their behaviour.

Technology, such as alcohol interlock for convicted drink-drivers in some European countries, can be used to enhance enforcement beyond usual road policing by combatting the small minority who insist on using our roads in a dangerous and antisocial manner. They continue to present a threat to themselves and others. Other technology, such as speed and red light cameras, has been proven to reduce deaths and injuries, as demonstrated in a report by Professor Richard Allsop, on behalf of the RAC Foundation^[64], which estimated that fixed speed cameras have reduced injury collisions across all severities by 16%, and fatal and serious collisions by 14%.

The level of public support for safety cameras in Scotland^[65] is high - a road user perception survey showed 76% agreed with the use of safety cameras and that they are a good thing; 71% agreed they help discourage dangerous driving in areas they are used; and 64% agreed they help prevent accidents in areas they are used.

An important development in the use of technology is the proliferation of dash/helmet cameras, providing digital video and photographic evidence which can be used in prosecutions. Operation Snap^[66], an award winning initiative by GoSafe Wales (the Welsh equivalent of the Scottish Safety Camera Programme) enables the public to submit footage to the police for such use. Since late 2016, there has been an increase in detection rates without significant extra enforcement costs, and the public has reacted positively to this initiative, often viewed as a form of community policing.

Another form of community policing in Scotland, in which the public assist police in protecting the most vulnerable road users, especially against aggressive driving, is Community Speedwatch^[67]. This initiative invites active members of local communities, with police support, to monitor speeds of vehicles using hand-held equipment. Vehicles exceeding the speed limit are then referred to the Police for further action with the aim of educating drivers and encouraging them to reduce their speeds.

Road Infrastructure & Maintenance: decreasing road maintenance/assets and its impact on road casualties

The Scottish Government's Infrastructure Investment Plan (IIP) sets out priorities for investment and a long-term strategy for the development of public infrastructure in Scotland up to 2035 by sector. Investment in Scotland's transport infrastructure will support the sustainable travel hierarchy as set out in the National Transport Strategy and Scottish Planning Policy. The projects and programmes listed within the IIP will make a significant contribution to meeting our targets and policies established for reducing collisions on the trunk road network.

Maintaining the road network in Scotland is a vital part of ensuring the safety of the network. Each element of the maintenance regime plays an important part in providing a safe driving environment. Cyclical reviews of the road surface, infrastructure features, and foliage cutbacks, as well as an annual winter service programme, are used to ensure that potential hazards are identified.

Our road network is constantly under pressure due to changes in the volume and type of traffic and requires that we provide solutions in order to meet current and future challenges. We must continue to improve our network by installing engineering measures to provide a safer network. A solution-led approach must be adopted for all types of maintenance works, including routine and cyclical maintenance operations, as well as larger structural/carriageway schemes.

In Europe it is estimated that road infrastructure and road surroundings are a contributing factor in more than 30% of crashes. Well-designed and properly maintained roads can reduce the probability of road traffic accidents, while "forgiving" roads (roads laid out on Safe System principles e.g. with the protection of roadside hazards to ensure that driving errors do not need to have serious consequences) can reduce the severity of accidents that do happen.

Route risk mapping with proactive road assessments in addition to the more traditional reactive analysis of high accident cluster sites provide useful tools to assess the safety quality of the road network and to target investment

In addition, as in car technologies advance and become more prominent we need to ensure our infrastructure is ready for the higher levels of automation in vehicles, by launching work towards specifications for the performance of road signs and markings, including their placing, visibility and retro-reflectivity. This is important already today for the functioning of driver assistance systems like Intelligent Speed Assistance (in the case of speed limit signs) and Lane Keeping Assistance (in the case of road markings), and will become more important as the level of automation increases.

Post-Crash Response: improving the fast and effective response to road collisions

The response time and time for treatment after collision, particularly provided by first responders, are crucial; a review of European studies of death in traffic crashes concluded about 50% of all deaths occurred within a few minutes of the crash (immediate deaths), either at the scene or on the way to a hospital^[68].

It then peaks around two-hours after the crash (early deaths), followed by another peak within three to four weeks (late deaths). This curve is called the trimodal distribution of trauma deaths.

If first responders at crash sites manage to control life-threatening haemorrhage, carry out airway manoeuvres, and provide life support in the context of impact brain apnoea, then survivability is very much increased. Treatment within the first hour can largely determine a critically-injured person's chances of survival and can turn a fatal collision into a serious one. In Scotland, most road users are not trained as first responders, so casualties normally receive the first response from emergency service personnel. Transport Scotland will continue to engage with Highways England to identify the merits of improving early responses to collisions^[69].

In 2019, 168 people died in Scotland as a result of a collision and a further 2,001 were seriously injured, affecting many families, friends and the wider community. A serious pursuit of Vision Zero, necessitates improving post-crash response by the emergency services (Police, Ambulance, Fire & Rescue) but also increasing the number of other first responders, who will become essential players in mitigating the seriousness of collisions.

The Scottish Trauma Network^[70] is progressing Key Performance Indicators, some of which should align with this Framework; for example, access to Major Trauma Centres, for the majority of the population, within 45 minutes by road. The Scottish Trauma Network consists of four regional networks (North, East, South East and West), and the Scottish Ambulance Service (SAS). The Major Trauma Centres at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary and Ninewells Hospital Dundee, treat the most severely-injured casualties to ensure they have the best chance of a speedy recovery. Similar centres are being established in Edinburgh and Glasgow, but will not be operational for another five years.

The clock starts ticking as soon as a collision occurs; if it is on a rural road, or at a time of day when there is little passing traffic, it can be some time before the alarm is raised. To combat and reduce the time lag, an eCall system has been mandatory in all new EU-registered cars since April 2018. Separate legislation already required Member States to put in place the infrastructure to handle eCalls. In the UK, BT is the current provider for all the emergency 999 calls. There is no indication from the UK Government that they will disalign from these EU regulations following our departure from the EU. Since 2010, Euro NCAP's Advanced Rewards has recognised car manufacturers who make available new safety technologies which demonstrate a scientifically-proven safety benefit for consumers and society. In addition to eCall, 70% of smartphones can now provide the exact location of a 999 caller by sending an automatic text to the call handler, including precise GPS position to within three metres.

Once the emergency call is made, the triage phase starts. In November 2016, the Scottish Ambulance Service began to pilot the New Clinical Response Model (NCRM) for emergency 999 calls with the aim of saving more lives and matching response-to-patient needs more effectively. Under the new system, patients with immediately life threatening conditions, such as cardiac arrest, or who have been involved in serious road traffic incidents, are prioritised and receive the fastest response. It aspires to provide more at-the-scene patient care and the evaluation report of 2019 found a 43% increase in 30-day survival for all patients in the Purple Category (1,182 people).^[71] Encouragingly, this new model has shown a 43% increase in the survival of those with immediate life-threatening conditions - the equivalent of 1,182 lives saved.

The UK Rescue Organisation^[72] brings together fire and medical services to deliver and develop training, technologies and techniques to improve road safety. This includes new training and better extrication techniques to save time getting treatment to casualties trapped after a collision.

The European Transport Safety Council also recommends emergency services should be provided with and use vehicle rescue sheets^[73] to accelerate the victim extrication.

Road Users: unsafe road use by certain types of road users and its effect on road casualties

This challenge covers a range of issues from the perspective of various road user categories - such as young drivers - and from a more generic point of view - such as not wearing seatbelts.

Lifelong road use learning

Traffic safety and mobility education, particularly applying its Key Principles^[74], is vital to implementing the Safe System^[75], as it helps develop safe road users. Road safety is a lifelong learning process and education is critical, especially in early years: what our children learn (knowledge), what they are exposed to (experience), and how they behave (skill) at a young age can remain with them throughout their lives. However, excellence in this particular area, is already evident in many parts of Scotland, but it is inconsistent. Using road safety learning resources developed specifically to support Curriculum for Excellence^[76] in all schools, teachers, early years staff, parents, carers, road safety officers and lecturers should continue to work in partnership by engaging children and young people in active and experiential learning.

Young drivers (17-25)

In 2018, young drivers (aged 17-25) accounted for 12% of Scotland's licence holders, but accounted for 17% of drivers involved in fatal and serious collisions. Collisions are one of the biggest killers of young people: in 2018, they accounted for 6% of all 17-25 year-old deaths. Graph 1 shows this age group has a much higher KSI rate per million people, compared to the average rate of the overall population, 503 v 335 respectively.

Graph 1: 2014-18 average casualty rate in killed and seriously injured per million population

Road users aged 65 and over

Scotland's population is ageing and, in 2016, 0.44 million people were over the age of 75. By 2040, this figure is projected to grow to 0.79 million, an increase of nearly 79%^[77]. This increase has already had an effect on the total number of casualties for the over 60s^[78] which has barely reduced since 2004 when compared to the population as a whole (33% v 54%). In relation to driver KSIs, the trend is even worse for the over 60s which, compared to all ages, has increased by around 7 percentage points between the 2004-08 average and 2014-18^[79] average. In other age groups, the trends have either reduced, or only slightly increased.

While historically people have tended to travel less as they get older, the current generation is healthier, fitter and more mobile than previous generations. They are likely to travel more but this brings increased risk, often because of frailty. What constitutes a relatively-minor crash for a younger driver or passenger, may be serious or fatal for an older person. Age-related frailty^[80] is one of the main reasons why older road users are more likely to suffer death or serious injury in a collision.

Motorcyclists

2018 data show there has been little reduction in fatal or serious motorcyclist casualties compared to the 2004-08 average. While all modes of transport have shown reductions of 45% (fatals) and 39% (serious injuries) in that same period, motorcyclist data shows reductions of 21% and 24% respectively^[81]. In 2018, motorcyclists accounted for 0.1% of all journeys and 0.6% of traffic in Scotland but, disproportionally, they represented 8% of casualties. On average, over the years 2014 to 2018, the motorcyclist casualty rate was highest for the 16-22 and 23-25 age groups (both 0.25 per thousand population).

Seatbelts, drink, drugs and mobile phones

The four biggest dangers whilst driving/riding have been commonly identified as the fatal four. They are still a challenge in Scotland: speeding is covered in a separate challenge, but seatbelts, drink/drug-driving, and mobile phone use are important issues too.

For the period 2014-2018, 13% of in-car fatalities in Scotland^[82] were not wearing seatbelts. A PACTS report^[83] states that seatbelt wearing reduces both fatal and non-fatal injuries by 60% among front seat passengers, and by 44% among rear-seat passengers. Seatbelt-wearing by rear-seat passengers also halves the fatality risk for belted front-seat occupants, given the dynamics in a vehicle after a collision. Child car seat specialist, Good Egg Safety, has consistently found, during its popular Community Checking Events across Scotland, the suitability of the child car seats or restraints used in them were inappropriate in 57% of cases. They also found, during a mystery shop of car seat retailers (74 premises), 96% of staff failed to ask the necessary questions to identify the most appropriate seat for the child and the vehicle.

Although the number of people killed in Scotland in 2017 (ten) as a result of drink-drive accidents is estimated to be a third of the 2007 figure,^[84] driving under the influence of drink or drugs is one of the top ten contributory factors for road accidents in Scotland, and was a factor in 259 (186 and 73 respectively) or 3% of accidents in 2018.^[85] However, it is evidenced that drivers with blood alcohol content level (BAC) between 0.1g/l and 0.5g/l are up to 3 times more likely to be involved in a fatal collision than sober drivers and drivers with BAC between 0.5 and 0.8g are 20 times more likely to be involved in a fatal collision.^[86] Driving over the drink-drive limit, individuals are six times more likely to die^[87] in a road accident because alcohol and drugs affect the body and mind in the following ways: slower reaction times; blurred vision; being unable to judge speed and distances properly; loss of concentration; difficulty in making rational decisions; impaired coordination; increased risk-taking.

As far as mobile phone use is concerned, a 2016 study^[88] found the extra mental workload and cognitive functions drivers have to undertake reduces their reflexes and slows reaction times (both the time to mentally register the event and the time to physically react to it), thus creating a major road safety risk. The latest mobile phone survey undertaken in Scotland^[89] recorded the behaviour of 14,427 drivers and found that, while compliance was good, it is decreasing over time.

Being distracted in the car is one of the main contributory factors to road casualties amongst 2029 year-olds; there is also the obvious issue of pedestrian distraction. In 2018 in Scotland, distraction inside and outside the vehicle^[90] accounted for 2% of all recorded contributory factors. It is anticipated this will worsen as more technology is rolled out.

Fatigue

Driver fatigue is also a factor in collisions^[91] and such collisions are around 50% more likely to result in death or serious injury^[92]. Police Scotland data suggest fatigue is a contributory factor in 5.7% of fatalities (5-year average) equating to around ten deaths each year. In 2018, fatigue was a contributory factor in 2% of all collisions^[93].

To illustrate this better, a person who drives after being awake for 17 hours has impaired driving skills comparable to a driver with a BAC of 0.05 mg/ml^[94] (the legal limit). When drivers fall asleep, they do not brake or swerve, so any resulting collisions tend to be at higher speeds.

According to the UK Government, 20% of collisions involving commercial vehicles are caused by fatigue; in 2018 in Scotland, fatigue^[95] accounted for 2% of all recorded contributory factors.

Foreign drivers

Scotland's roads are used by residents and visitors alike, for business, recreation and commuting. All road users have a responsibility to understand and conform to the rules of the road, not only to ensure the safety of themselves, but also that of all road users with whom they interact on a daily basis. Graphs 2 to 4 provide some historical statistics on collisions where foreign drivers were involved.

Every country has its own individual traffic laws, and those who drive in different countries must adapt their behaviour to comply. For example, the HGV (>7.5 tonnes) speed limits in Scotland are lower than in England and Wales on dual and single-carriageways roads. In addition, custom and practice may differ from country to country; different Give Way rules, for example, could lead to confusion among foreign drivers resulting in them moving at incorrect times or in a manner that alarms other road users. The causation factor most commonly-anoted for left-hand drive vehicles involved in collisions is 'failed to look properly'.

Graph 2: Left hand drive vehicles involved in accidents, 2014-18

Overseas drivers may also be unfamiliar with Britain's imperial system. This could lead to confusion trying to reconcile roadside signage and information with in-vehicle readings (miles v kilometres). A lack of knowledge of UK and Scots law, practices and measurements could confuse and frustrate drivers, possibly leading to rash actions and a lack of concentration.

Although year-on-year there has been a reduction in the number of collisions involving foreign drivers, if Scotland continues to be promoted as a tourist destination, more effort is required to improve safety for all road users. Furthermore, the number of collisions involving foreign drivers/riders should be monitored to mitigate any emerging trends.

Scotland has promoted itself as having some of the most attractive roads in the world for tourists such as NC500 and this has resulted in an increase in the number of drivers/riders unfamiliar with driving on the left.

A mix of individuals - families and friends - in a variety of vehicles such as bikes, cars, and campervans driving/riding unfamiliar roads, guided by unfamiliar rules and sharing the space with everyday users makes it essential to address this issue, particularly during the peak touristic months.

Graph 3: Non-UK drivers involved in collisions, 2014-18

Educational resources have been produced on this topic for a number of years through 'Driving in Scotland' leaflets. One was designed specifically for migrant workers (in English, Russian, Polish, Lithuanian and French), but demand for this has tailed-off substantially in recent years and it is now an online-only publication. The second is designed for tourists (in English, French, German, Spanish, Italian, and Polish), and includes information on a number of issues including single-track roads.

Graph 4: Foreign casualties involved in accidents by severity, 2014-18

In addition to the leaflets and website, wristbands in eight languages (English, French, German, Spanish, Italian, Dutch, Hindi, and Chinese) saying "DRIVE ON THE LEFT" have been distributed through a number of channels, but mainly via car-hire companies. This practical solution aims at encouraging companies to engage with drivers in a consistent and informed way.

The drive on the left campaign was launched in the Highlands, an area which attracts a large number of tourists, and drivers and motorcyclists were issued with the leaflets, wristbands and windscreen stickers reminding them to drive on the left and demonstrating the correct position at junctions.

As well as improving foreign driver education we need to apply the correct engineering and enforcement measures, and monitor incidents to ensure we capture any emerging trends and react to them accordingly.

Are the 12 key challenges for road safety, from Climate Emergency, Health to Emerging technologies and Post-crash response, the correct ones?

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