Interim Conclusion

Demand over the first 11 weeks of the pilot was higher than anticipated, showing an increase of 4.2% in the number of journeys against the counterfactual when compared to modelled results of 1.6%. Revenue changes were in line with expectations and budget for the trial.

Summary of progress against outcomes

With regard to the Pilot outcomes, it is too early to conclude or fully assess progress at this stage of the evaluation process.

There is some positive evidence with regard to the outcomes on improving awareness of rail as a viable service; and on Improving access to Rail, enabling more people to travel more often; to Improve Awareness of Rail as a Viable Travel Choice.

With regard to the outcome of Reducing Private Car Usage, there is mixed evidence with some evidence also showing mode shift from bus to rail.

Indications from the survey work suggest that the public are making changes to their travel as a result of the ScotRail Peak Fares Removal Pilot. The scale of that change is uncertain due to a number of factors affecting the uptake of the Pilot offer such as service disruption, ticket purchasing behaviour as well as the Wave 1 fieldwork window taking place in December.

However, despite this, survey respondents reported that now they were aware of the Pilot they may consider rail travel in the future; rail users on the whole had a high level of satisfaction with the service, but a fifth found that there were some issues with capacity. At the same time, certainty of a seat was a factor that would encourage new users to consider using rail. Almost a third (31%) of new users said they would definitely continue to use rail after the pilot ended.

In terms of switching from other modes, for non-rail users who now used rail, 51% of responses indicated making a switch, with 54% of those switching from car and a third switching from travelling by bus.

Interim value for money results

Initial assessment of the Value for Money of the pilot is currently marginally positive but is subject to a number of uncertainties that will crystalise over the remaining period. At this point, it is reasonable to say that the interim assessment has demonstrated that the permanent removal of peak fares has the potential to offer value for money in terms of government expenditure versus benefits but at present this is relatively low and there are likely to be alternative uses of scarce funds that would offer a better return.

Of particular concern are the groups of people who are benefiting from the pilot. Existing rail users tend to be from higher income groups and the full evaluation will examine in detail the demographic profile of those attracted to rail and adjust the results accordingly.