Scottish Road Network Climate Change Study: UKCP09 update Autumn 2011

ISBN 978 1 908181 22 0

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Contents

Document Control Sheet

1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Objectives
1.3 Report Structure

2 Overview of the UKCP09 scenarios
2.1 Purpose and design of UKCP09
2.2 Emission scenarios
2.3 Projection uncertainties
2.4 Projections at a daily resolution
2.5 Confidence in climate projections
2.6 Gaps within the UKCP09 projections
2.7 Interpretation of probabilistic projections

3 Climatic variables investigated

4 Methodology
4.1 Approach
4.2 Data tabulation

5 Temperature related variables
5.1 Annual mean temperature
5.2 Frost days
5.3 Freeze - Thaw
5.4 Winter duration
5.5 Hot days
5.6 Growing season

6 Precipitation related variables
6.1 Annual precipitation
6.2 Seasonal precipitation
6.3 Extreme storm rainfall depths
6.4 Change in precipitation of the wettest day in a season
6.5 Soil moisture deficit and groundwater recharge

7 Other Climatic Variables
7.1 Sea level rise and coastal flooding
7.2 High wind
7.3 Fog

8 Probabilistic approach and UK context
8.1 Making use of probabilistic projections
8.2 Projected future climate in the context of existing UK climates

9 Discussion of 2005 Study Recommendations
9.1 Review of Recommendations

10 Conclusions and future considerations

11 References

Appendix A UKCP09 probability density functions