Scottish Road Network Climate Change Study: UKCP09 update Autumn 2011
7 Other Climatic Variables
7.1 Sea level rise and coastal flooding
Observed or projected changes in relative sea level take into account both changes in absolute sea level as well as changes in land-level (which in the UK are primarily due to isostatic adjustment following the last glacial period).
UKCP09 provides projections of changes in relative sea level for several coastal regions. These projections are based on combining estimates of absolute sea-level for the UK as a whole with regionally-averaged projections of future isostatic adjustment.
Figures 7.1 to 7.3 show the relative sea-level change for the three locations of Dundee, Glasgow and Inverness for the medium emission scenario.
Figure 7.1 - Change in relative sea level rise, medium emission scenario - Dundee.
Figure 7.2 - Change in relative sea level rise, medium emission scenario - Glasgow.
Figure 7.3 - Change in relative sea level rise, medium emission scenario - Inverness
The change in relative sea rise is similar for all three sites. Table 7.1 presents the projected relative sea-level rise in metres for the 2080s for the three emission scenarios. The methodology developed for the UKCP09 projections of Sea Level Rise for UK Waters produces results for the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles. Therefore the values in brackets refer to the 5th and the 95th percentiles and not the 10th and 90th as for all the other climatic variables.
| Emission scenario | Glasgow | Inverness | Dundee |
|---|---|---|---|
| High 2080s |
+0.4 [+0.05 to +0.7] |
+0.4 [ +0.09 to +0.7] |
+0.4 [+0.1 to +0.7] |
| Medium 2080s |
+0.3 [+0.1 to +0.5] |
+0.3 [-0.07 to +0.6] |
+0.3 [+0.07 to +0.6] |
| Low 2080s |
+0.2 [0 to +0.4] |
+0.2 [0 to +0.4] |
+0.2 [0 to +0.4] |
Comparison to estimates derived from UKCIP02 projections:
The UKCP09 findings suggest that relative increase in sea level rise for the three locations is likely to be between 5 and 70 cm for the high emission scenario. The UKCIP02 estimates suggest a range between 0 and 25 cm. This suggests bigger increases based on the current scenarios.
Note: These projections should be considered the minimum likely change, since changes to wave regimes and surges are, as yet, poorly understood.
7.2 High wind
No information given in UKCP09 output.
7.3 Fog
No information given in UKCP09 output.