Project Evaluation - Economy
Project Evaluation - Economy
Transport Economic Efficiency
The comparisons between predicted and actual traffic flows, presented in The Operation of the Project and Process Evaluation section, can be considered a proxy for whether the predicted economic benefits of the project are likely to be realised.
It is important to note that the economic assessment of infrastructure projects, such as the M8 M73 M74 Motorway Improvements Project, encompass an appraisal period of 60 years. This means that the benefits realised from such improvements are accrued over a period of 60 years from the year the project opens to traffic. This 1YA Evaluation considers the comparison of predicted and actual traffic flows and journey times (as a proxy for whether the predicted economic benefits of the project are likely to be realised) in a single year, 1YA opening, as illustrated in Figure 79.
Whether the level of predicted benefits in subsequent years are realised in reality is dependent on wider economic factors and political outcomes which directly or indirectly influence growth in traffic volumes across the trunk road network. Such factors, however, cannot be predicted with any certainty over the duration of the appraisal period - the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic being one such example.
As such, the comparison undertaken at the time of the 1YA Evaluation can be used only as an indication of whether the predicted economic benefits are likely to be realised and cannot provide a definitive conclusion as to whether the level of benefits predicted will be realised.
Comparison Between Predicted and Actual Traffic Flows
Based on the comparison of predicted (forecast) and actual traffic volumes, presented in the The Operation of the Project and Process Evaluation section, it can be summarised that:
- Actual traffic volumes are between 2% lower and 8% greater than predicted, within the M8 Corridor
- Actual traffic volumes are between 5% and 15% greater than predicted, within the A725 Corridor
- Actual traffic volumes are between 7% and 17% lower than predicted, within the M73 / M74 Corridor
On this basis, it can be deduced that the traffic volumes predicted by the traffic model, developed to support the project’s assessment, are broadly accurate, and well within the acceptable thresholds (+ / - 20%). Whilst there has been a slight overestimation of the volume of traffic using the M8 and A725 Corridors within the traffic model, and an underestimation of traffic using the M73 / M74 Corridor, the magnitude of the variance is such that it is unlikely to have significantly impacted the project’s assessment. As such, the level of transport economic efficiency (TEE) benefits predicted as part of the project’s assessment are likely to be broadly accurate.
Comparison Between Predicted and Actual Travel Times
Based on the comparison of predicted and actual journey time savings, presented in The Operation of the Project and Process Evaluation section, it can be deduced that:
- Actual average journey time savings are, generally, somewhat greater (in the order of ½ minute to 2 ½ minutes), compared to predicted journey time savings, in both directions of travel, across all time periods, within the M8 Corridor. This is with the exception of the westbound direction of travel, in the PM period, where predicted average journey time savings are in the order of 1 ½ minutes greater than observed.
- Actual average journey time savings are, somewhat greater (in the order of ½ minute to 5 minutes), compared to predicted journey time savings, in both directions of travel, across all time periods, within the A725 Corridor.
- Actual average journey time savings are, generally, somewhat lower (in the order of ½ minute to 1 minute), compared to predicted journey time savings, in both directions of travel, across all time periods, within the M73 / M74 Corridor. This is with the exception of the southbound direction of travel, in the AM period, where actual average journey time savings are in the order of 1 minute greater than predicted.
On this basis, it can be judged that, overall, the predicted average journey time savings derived from the traffic models developed to support the project’s assessment do not vary considerably from observed average journey time savings. It is worth noting, however, that actual average journey time savings tend to be greater when compared to predictions (most notably within the A725 Corridor). As such, the project may be delivering average savings in journey time over and above those predicted as part of the project’s assessment. This, in turn, suggests the TEE benefits delivered by the project, specifically associated with journey time savings, may be greater than those predicted as part of the project’s assessment.
Wider Economic Impacts
Wider Economic Impacts are, as defined within STAG, “the notion of potential transport impacts on agglomeration and the relationship between agglomeration and productivity”. The magnitude of the project is such that Wider Economic Impacts within the study area, and more widely within Central Scotland, are anticipated due to the actual and perceived enhancement of connectivity and the related impacts such as increases in productivity and better access to markets.
Gross Value Added Impacts
One measure of wider economic impacts is Gross Value Added (GVA), which is a measure of the increase in the value of the economy due to the production of goods and services. An overview of GVA is outlined in Figure 80.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes GVA data on an annual basis, disaggregated to local authority level. GVA (in the form of Balanced GVA Per Head) between 2008 and 2017 across the City of Glasgow, NLC and SLC areas (within which the project is located) is presented in Figure 81. This data is presented alongside GVA within the neighbouring local authorities of Falkirk, West Lothian and City of Edinburgh Councils, in addition to national GVA per head, for comparative purposes. The growth in balanced GVA per head, over the period 2008 to 2017, is presented in Figure 82.
While data post 2017 (and opening of the project) is not currently available at the time of the 1YA Evaluation, based on the information presented in Figure 82, it can be deduced that GVA Per Head at both a national and local authority area level, has generally been increasing in recent years. Following the wider economic downturn in 2008, after which the level of GVA per head across all areas examined reduced, a general up-turn in economic activity has seen GVA Per Head levels increasing across the local authorities examined. While this upturn coincided with the opening of the M80 Stepps to Haggs and M74 Completion projects in 2011, the specific impact of these projects on the economic performance across the wider region cannot be quantified on this measure. While regional GVA per head trends broadly followed national trends over the period 2008 to 2017, it is reasonable to assume that these projects may have contributed positively to local GVA levels, albeit the level of any impact cannot be confirmed. It is anticipated that the M8 M73 M74 Motorway Improvements Project may result in a similar positive impact, as this project ‘locks in’ and integrates the benefits of the wider improvements to the Central Scotland motorway network.
Cognisance of the fact that wider economic impacts may not materialise over the short term and, instead, are more likely to become apparent over the medium to longer term i.e. over a period of 5 to 10 years, should be taken. Private sector business investment can take time to materialise and, additionally, is subject to wider market influences and economic / political uncertainties. As such, a quantitative evaluation of wider economic impacts cannot be made at the time of the 1YA Evaluation. The evaluation of wider economic impacts will be revisited as part of a later evaluation of the project (3YA and / or 5YA).
Localised Labour Market Impacts
Local labour market data, in the form of the total numbers of jobs within various geographical areas, is available from NOMIS and the ONS. In the context of the 1YA Evaluation, data available at the Scottish Parliamentary constituency level provides a suitably disaggregated dataset on which to inform the evaluation of localised labour market trends.
The Scottish parliamentary constituencies of most relevance to the 1YA Evaluation have been considered as follows:
- Airdrie and Shotts – Eastern extent of project
- Coatbridge and Chryston – Northern extent of project
- East Kilbride – South western extent of project
- Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse – Southern extent of project
- Motherwell and Wishaw – South eastern extent of project
- Uddingston and Bellshill – Central to extent of project
- Glasgow Provan – North western extent of project
- Glasgow Shettleston – Western extent of project
- Rutherglen – Western extent of project
The locations of the Scottish parliamentary constituencies, in the context of the project, are presented in Figure 83.
The total number of jobs, within the parliamentary constituencies examined, are presented in Figure 84.
Based on the information presented in Figure 84, it can be deduced that, within the Scottish parliamentary constituencies examined, an additional 7,000 jobs have been created in the period July 2017 to September 2019. This period coincided with the opening of the project in summer 2017. The increase in jobs can be disaggregated as follows:
- Uddingston and Bellshill – an additional 3,000 jobs
- Glasgow Provan – an additional 2,000 jobs
- Coatbridge and Chryston, Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse and Motherwell and Wishaw – an additional 1,000 jobs in each of the three parliamentary constituencies
- Airdrie and Shotts, Glasgow Shettleston and Rutherglen – no change
- East Kilbride – 1,000 fewer jobs
The specific impact of the project on the economic performance, in terms of numbers of jobs across the region cannot be quantified on this measure. However, the improved access to several of the major employment areas within the project’s vicinity provided as a result of the improvements are likely to have been viewed favourably by certain sectors (such as wholesale distribution and road haulage), with reductions in queuing and congestion and improved reliability of journey times across the upgraded road network. The project may, therefore, have contributed positively to the increases in job numbers within the Uddingston and Bellshill and Glasgow Provan parliamentary constituencies (3,000 and 2,000 additional jobs respectively over the period July 2017 to September 2019) within which the M8 Corridor is located.
While initial indications suggest positive trends, in terms of the number of jobs being created within the study area, cognisance of the fact that wider economic impacts may not materialise over the short term should be taken. Instead, such impacts are more likely to become apparent over the medium to longer term i.e. over a period of 5 to 10 years. Private sector business investment can take time to materialise and, additionally, is subject to wider market influences and economic / political uncertainties. As such, a quantitative evaluation of wider economic impacts cannot be made at the time of the 1YA Evaluation. The evaluation of wider economic impacts will be revisited as part of a later evaluation of the project (3YA and / or 5YA).
A further subset of the local labour market data, in the form of the total numbers of benefit claimants, disaggregated at the Scottish Parliamentary constituency level, is also available from the ONS (Benefit claimants is defined as individuals claiming Jobseeker's Allowance and out of work Universal Credit Claimants). This data can be used to evaluate any impact of the project on the distribution of positive economic impacts across the population as a whole. The annual percentage change in benefit claimants, across the parliamentary constituencies examined, is presented in Figure 85.
Based on the information presented in Figure 85, it can be judged that, within the parliamentary constituencies examined, the total number of benefit claimants has increased over the period examined. Following a reduction between 2015 and 2016, the overall increase across the eight constituencies examined, between July 2017 and September 2019, of around 7% (coinciding with the opening of the project in summer 2017) is somewhat greater than the increase observed at a national level (around 1%) (Overall changes in benefit claimant numbers over the period 2015 – 2016 may be linked to the roll out of Universal Credit). Whilst a localised increase in benefit claimants has been observed, the cause of this increase cannot be concluded from the information available, at the time of the 1YA Evaluation. The evaluation of wider economic impacts, including localised labour market impacts, will be revisited as part of a later evaluation of the project (3YA and / or 5YA) when a longer term data set will be available.
Infrastructure projects, such as the M8 M73 M74 Motorway Improvements Project can contribute positively to local, regional and national economic outcomes. Wider policy, economic and societal issues (which can be historic or / or localised), however, can contribute to barriers to employment for certain societal demographics. It is outwith the scope of the 1YA Evaluation to quantitively evaluate such barriers.
Transport Scotland and the Scottish Government, more widely, will continue to introduce and deliver policies and targeted investments with a focus on reducing societal inequalities and achieving inclusive economic growth.
Business Surveys
As part of the 1YA Evaluation, an extensive business survey has been undertaken to gauge the views of the wider business community regarding the impacts of the project. This centred around an online questionnaire seeking the views of relevant business owners and / or representatives, posing a wide range of questions, focussing on areas such as the project’s impact on the delivery and shipment of goods, wider impacts on business turnover and profit and any changes in staff travel patterns to and from work. Comments from relevant stakeholders were sought through March 2020.
The response rate to the business survey is particularly low, with only 5 of 234 businesses consulted responding to the online survey – a response rate of just over 2%. It is judged that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic occurring at the time of the business survey is likely to have significantly impacted the response rate, with restrictions placed on business activities, public gatherings and, more widely, general daily activities.
As such, it is likely that several of the business organisations consulted are unlikely to have had a suitable opportunity to fully consider and respond to the online survey. As a result, in order to gauge the views of the wider business community regarding the impacts of the project, a further business survey will be undertaken as part of a subsequent 3YA and / or 5YA Evaluation for the project.
A summary of the limited responses received to each of the questions posed as part of the business survey is outlined below, though the low response rate means that these cannot be taken as representative of the businesses in the study area. The survey consisted of four elements, each focussing on varying project impacts. The first element of the survey questionnaire was designed to draw out respondents’ views on a scale of 1 to 5, where 5 is classed as “very satisfied” and 1 is classed as “very dissatisfied”. The questions posed focussed on various project impacts.
The responses provided are summarised in Figure 86 and are listed below:
- “How satisfied are you with the contribution the M8 / M73 / M74 Improvements project has made to customer volumes?”
- Very Dissatisfied – 1 response
- Dissatisfied – 0 responses
- Neither Satisfied nor Dissatisfied – 2 responses
- Satisfied – 0 responses
- Very Satisfied – 1 response
In terms of the specific responses provided, it was noted by a representative of Ovec Systems Ltd that in regards the project’s impact on journey times to work “My time and employee's times have all increased. We need to go through more junctions than before, as there is no M8 link to or from Coatbridge causing an increase in traffic lights, roundabouts and congestion”. A further comment received from a representative of Ovec Systems Ltd in regards the project’s impact on the delivery and shipment of goods suggested that it “Now takes longer to get deliveries to our factory, as there is no M8 link to or from Coatbridge causing an increase in traffic lights, roundabouts and congestion, as well as fuel consumption and vehicle wear and tear”.
In terms of the project’s impact on reducing delays, a comment received from a representative of Ovec Systems Ltd suggested it was perceived that the project had “just moved the congestion points spread them out, could easily be improved by a little bit more work at each junction”. A response received from a representative of George Taylor & Co. (Hamilton) Ltd also indicated that “there is still congestion at peak times especially through the other end of the M8 heading to the airport, so we always allow double extra time to take Customers back to the airport from Hamilton”.
In terms of the project’s impact on company turnover and profit, a response received from a representative of Ovec Systems Ltd suggested that it “now takes longer and therefore is more expensive to get to our factory, as there is no M8 link to or from Coatbridge causing an increase in traffic lights, roundabouts and congestion”. Responses received from representatives of Crestlink Ltd and Missiles and Space Batteries Ltd respectively, however, indicated that “we mention in our marketing material the good road connections to the Business Complex and that encourages tenants to take units with us” and “difficult to quantify. Main benefit is reduced congestion which is a positive in terms of supplier delivery times and reduced lateness of staff”.
In response to a survey question regarding the overall success of the project, a representative of Ovec Systems Ltd suggested that “now that Bishopton, with a population of under 5000, has had a new M8 junction constructed, I suggest that the contractors return to Lanarkshire to finish the job giving the 150,000+ people living in the central belt towns motorway access we still do not have”.
The second element of the survey questionnaire was designed to draw out respondents’ views on a scale of 1 to 5, where 5 is classed as “very important” and 1 is classed as “very unimportant”, focussing on customer footfall and recruitment and retention of staff. The specific questions posed were as follows:
- How important is the M8 / M73 / M74 network to your business in terms of bringing in customers?
- How important is the M8 / M73 / M74 network to your business in terms of recruitment and retention of staff?
Based on the responses provided:
- Four respondents indicated the project was either “important” or “very important” to their business, in terms of bringing in customers.
- The same four respondents indicated that the project was “important” to their business, in terms of the businesses ability to recruit and retain staff.
In terms of the specific responses provided, it was noted by a representative of Missiles and Space Batteries Ltd that in regards the project’s impact on bringing in customers “It is easier for customers to visit the site… We get regular visits from overseas customers and it is now easier to get to and from the airports to our site in Coatbridge”.
It was also noted by a representative of Missiles and Space Batteries Ltd that, in terms of the project’s impact on recruiting and retaining staff “In general it helps as journey times are reduced”.
The third element of the survey questionnaire was designed to draw out respondents’ views, in terms of yes or no responses, to the following questions:
- “Have you, or other staff, switched from other routes during your journey to work since the M8 / M73 / M74 Improvements project opened?”
- “Have you, or other staff, made more use of walking and cycling for your journey to work since the M8 / M73 / M74 Improvements project opened?”
- “Are you aware of any adverse impacts that occurred during the construction process?”
Based on the responses provided:
- Three respondents indicated that employees had switched routes on their journey to work following opening of the project.
- None of the respondents indicated that employees had made more use of walking and cycling for their journey to work following opening of the project.
- Three respondents indicated that they were aware of adverse impacts during the project’s construction phase.
In terms of the specific responses provided, it was noted by a representative of Ovec Systems Ltd that in regards employees switching routes on their journey to work “Now takes longer to get to our factory, as there is no M8 link to or from Coatbridge. I now avoid the Raith Interchange at 5pm as the queues are too long”.
It was also noted by a representative of Ovec Systems Ltd that, in terms of employees making more use of walking and cycling as part of their journey to work “there are no direct footpaths suitable”.
In regards to responses provided relating to adverse impacts during construction, it was noted by a representative of Ovec Systems Ltd that it was perceived that “Tens of thousands of lost man hours due to construction congestion, increased fuel consumption, additional wear and tear on cars”. A response from a representative of Missiles and Space Batteries Ltd suggested that adverse impacts noted related to “Only the delays caused by necessary lane closures during the construction”.
The final element of the survey questionnaire was designed to draw out respondents’ views, in terms of positive or negative responses, to the following question:
- “Do you foresee any long(er) term impacts (positive or negative) for your business, as a consequence of the M8 / M73 / M74 Improvements project?”
Four respondents suggested that they foresaw the project having a longer-term positive impact on their business.
In terms of the specific responses provided, a response received from a representative of Ovec Systems Ltd suggested that the project provided “no M8 access to Uddingston, Coatbridge, Bellshill, Airdrie or Newhouse / Motherwell. Journey times were shorter before the upgrade”. A response received from a representative of Cameron Water Ltd, however, noted that the project had resulted in “time saving in all aspects of delivery”. A response provided by a representative of Crestlink Ltd suggested that the project facilitated “continuing good connections in spite of very busy periods”. A further response received from a representative of Missiles and Space Batteries Ltd noted that the “benefits already achieved should continue”.
In summary, the limited responses received to the business survey (five responses) cannot be taken as representative of the project’s actual and perceived impacts on businesses within the wider study area. While a limited number of negative responses have been received (specifically surrounding perceptions of the project and the lack of direct access to the motorway network, at certain locations in North Lanarkshire) the overall view of the project is largely positive. Four out of the five respondents indicated they were either “satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the overall success of the project, of which two indicated they were “very satisfied”. Responses have been received which suggest that the project is having a positive impact across a range of areas, including on the delivery and shipment of goods, on reducing delays and on company turnover and profit.
Economic Activity and Location Impacts
Economic Activity and Location Impacts (EALIs) allow the impacts of a project to be expressed in terms of their net effects on the local and / or national economy. As per Wider Economic Benefits, EALIs can take a number of years to materialise and, as such, are not quantitively evaluated as part of the 1YA Evaluation. Instead, based on the information available at this stage, a largely qualitative evaluation of EALIs has been undertaken.
No feedback was received, as part of the consultation undertaken at the time of the 1YA Evaluation, from planning officers from Glasgow City, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire and West Lothian local authorities. Feedback was also not received from the management of the Clyde Gateway (responsible for the regeneration of approximately 840 hectares of post-industrial brown field sites in the south east of Glasgow and Rutherglen). It can be judged, however, that the impact of the M8 M73 M74 Motorway Improvements Project (combined with other recent motorway improvements i.e. M74 Completion and M80 Stepps to Haggs projects) is having a positive impact on the number and type of development proposals being brought forward within the wider area. This includes proposals for the development of major housing sites within the M8 Corridor.
A qualitative desk-based review undertaken to inform the 1YA Evaluation has indicated that there may be a trend emerging surrounding businesses in the distribution sector locating to the study area. A planning application has been lodged to develop a 6.4-hectare site at Glasgow Business Park (located south of the M8 between Baillieston and Easterhouse) for use as a distribution and storage facility. Additionally, a further application has been lodged for the development of a parcel handling facility at Clyde Gateway East, to the north of the M74 at London Road.
Within the M8 Corridor itself, between Baillieston and Newhouse, several large-scale developments have been proposed following opening of the project. These include the development and expansion of the Mossend Rail Freight hub (discussed in the Integration section) and the EuroPark development, located north of the M8, between Carnbroe and Calderbank. This proposal features a mixed-use development of an approximate 550-hectare site, directly to the north of Eurocentral and incorporates 2,600 houses (including 1,000 affordable and social properties) a hotel and conference, retail and school facilities. As part of the development, it is also proposed to establish a Country and Heritage Park (incorporating the Monkland Canal) upon which the development would be centred. The developer of the site estimates that over 900 jobs could be created, with over 4,500 during the construction phase.
Additionally, a number of other proposed developments, within the wider study area, include those with an accommodation and leisure focus. Two such proposals include the development of a 100-bed hotel and an ‘American style’ multi-tiered golf driving range, with a total of around 400 jobs anticipated to be created, both located within the Cambuslang area, within the vicinity of the Clydebridge Steelworks site and Junction 2 of the M74, respectively.
The development located within the vicinity of M74 Junction 2 forms part of the ‘Two 74’ development – the regeneration of a 20-acre site, forming part of the wider Clyde Gateway regeneration programme. Developments of this nature point towards the role of the upgraded motorway network (of which the M8 M73 M74 Motorway Improvements Project forms a key component) in acting as a stimulus for inward investment and the regeneration of former industrial sites within the East-End of Glasgow. This impact can also be seen more widely, across the evaluation study area, resulting from the improvements in actual and perceived accessibility, reductions in journey times and improvements in the reliability of journey times following opening of the project.
While no data is available to quantitively assess certain short-term impacts following opening of the project, anecdotal evidence suggests that, due to changes in access from the motorway network as a result of the project, negative impacts may have been observed in certain locations. Examples of such locations include the Showcase Leisure Complex, located north of the M8 and A8 APR in Coatbridge and the Birkenshaw Trading Estate, located south of the M8 and A8 APR in Tannochside (west of Bellshill). As a result of the project, direct access from the strategic road network at Aitkenhead Road, near Bargeddie, was not maintained, with road users required to use either the A8 APR, accessing / egressing the M8 when travelling to and from the East, at Junction 6 Newhouse or the A725, accessing / egressing the M8 at Junction 7a Shawhead.
It was suggested by certain business owners that, due to a lack of signage, road users were unable to locate the trading estate following opening of the project, leading to a significant reduction in customer footfall. No data has been provided by businesses in the area which allows these impacts to be quantitively assessed. A limited desk-based exercise, however, has identified that a number of businesses formerly located within Birkenshaw Trading Estate have now either relocated or, in some instances, have closed down. Based on the available information, it cannot be confirmed, however, if this is as a direct impact of the project and, more specifically, the change in access from the A8 / M8.
While the impact of the project cannot be quantified, it can be judged that the positive impacts noted in The Operation of the Project and Process Evaluation section, relating to reductions in congestion and improvements in journey time reliability across the upgraded road network, are likely contributing towards private sector investment in the wider study area.
Economy: Key Findings
The traffic volumes predicted by the traffic model, developed to support the project’s assessment, are broadly accurate, and well within the acceptable thresholds (+ / - 20%). Whilst there has been a slight overestimation of the volume of traffic using the M8 and A725 Corridors within the traffic model (up to 8% and 15% greater than actual traffic levels, respectively) and an underestimation of traffic using the M73 / M74 Corridor (between 7% and 17%) the magnitude of the variance is such that it is unlikely to have significantly impacted the project’s assessment.
The predicted average journey time savings, derived from the traffic models developed to support the project’s assessment, do not vary considerably from observed average journey time savings. It is worth noting, however, that actual average journey time savings tend to be greater when compared to predictions (most notably within the A725 Corridor). As such, the project may be delivering average savings in journey time over and above those predicted as part of the project’s assessment.
The combined effect of predicted traffic flows broadly in-line with observed traffic flow levels, and a potential underestimation of benefits associated with journey time savings, suggests that the TEE benefits delivered by the project, may be greater than those predicted as part of the project’s assessment.
Based on the information available at the time of the 1YA Evaluation, it is anticipated that the project may be contributing positively towards local GVA levels. Furthermore, it is judged that the project ‘locks in’ and integrates the benefits of the wider improvements to the Central Scotland motorway network, including the M80 Stepps to Haggs and M74 Completion projects, both of which opened to traffic in 2011.
There is evidence which suggests that labour market trends over the period coinciding with the opening of the project are positive, in terms of the number of jobs being created within the study area. The specific impact of the project on economic performance, in terms of numbers of jobs across the region, cannot be quantified. However, the improved access to several of the major employment areas within the project’s vicinity provided as a result of the improvements are likely to be have been viewed favourably by certain sectors (such as wholesale distribution and road haulage), with reductions in queuing and congestion and improvements in the reliability of journey times across the upgraded road network.
Anecdotal evidence suggests negative impacts for businesses may have followed opening of the project, in specific locations. Changes in direct access to and from the M8, within the vicinity of Bargeddie, may have contributed towards reductions in business activity at the Showcase Leisure Complex and Birkenshaw Trading Estate. At the time of the 1YA Evaluation, there was no evidence available, however, to quantify such impacts, nor to ascertain the impact of the project itself, on the aforementioned locations.
The response rate of around 2% to the business survey undertaken at the time of the 1YA Evaluation is particularly low. It is considered that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, occurring at the time of the business survey, is likely to have significantly impacted the response rate. As such, the responses cannot be taken as representative of the project’s actual and perceived impacts on businesses within the wider study area. Based on the responses received, however, it can be deduced that while a limited number of negative responses have been received, the overall view of the project is largely positive. Four of the five respondents indicated they were either “satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the overall success of the project.
Based on the information available at the time of the 1YA Evaluation, it is judged that the positive impacts following opening of the project, relating to reductions in congestion and improvements in journey time reliability across the upgraded road network, are likely contributing towards private sector investment in the wider study area, with a potential associated increase in job numbers.
While wider economic factors and political outcomes influence the strength of local, regional and national economies, it is considered that the benefits resulting from the project play an important role in strengthening the economy, at all levels. Reducing delays and congestion and improving the reliability of journey times (critical for just-in-time supply chains) assist in the recovery from economic shocks, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The views of business representatives gathered at the time of the 1YA Evaluation indicated that the project was largely considered important to their business, in terms of bringing in customers and universally considered important, in terms of the businesses ability to recruit and retain staff. As such, it is reasonable to conclude that the project will play an important role in the future recovery of the economy.
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