Introduction

Jacobs was commissioned by Transport Scotland (TS) to undertake a Stage 1 Evaluation of the reopening of East Linton Railway Station. In line with Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG), the Stage 1 Evaluation provides an early, high‑level assessment of whether the intervention is performing as intended and remains on track to deliver its investment objectives.

The evaluation draws on primary and secondary data to assess emerging impacts relative to the pre‑intervention baseline, with a focus on early outcomes rather than fully realised benefits. The findings provide an initial indication of impact direction, support assessment against the original business case rationale, and establish a robust evidence base for subsequent stages of post‑scheme appraisal.

Scheme Background

East Linton is a rural settlement in East Lothian on the East Coast Main Line (ECML), approximately 23 miles east of Edinburgh and six miles west of Dunbar, historically served by a station that closed in the 1960s as part of national network rationalisation.

From the late 1990s onwards, the reinstatement of East Linton became the focus of sustained community campaigning, supported by local authorities and regional transport bodies. A series of feasibility studies and appraisal exercises were undertaken to examine options for restoring rail access to East Linton, often in parallel with proposals for a new station at Reston in neighbouring East Berwickshire. The most significant of these was the 2013 Strategic Business Case, which concluded that reopening both stations, supported by enhanced local rail services between Edinburgh and Berwick‑upon‑Tweed, would deliver strong accessibility, economic and social benefits for the wider region.

Following this work, the project secured Scottish Government investment, with detailed design and delivery led by Network Rail in partnership with East Lothian Council and South East of Scotland Regional Transport Partnership (SEStran). Construction commenced in late 2021, and East Linton Station formally reopened to passengers in December 2023. The reopened station is served by ECML operators, providing direct links to Edinburgh, Dunbar, Berwick‑upon‑Tweed, Newcastle and beyond, and represents a key element of wider efforts to support sustainable transport, regional regeneration and inclusive economic growth in East Lothian.

The geographical context of the scheme is shown in Figure 1, which illustrates the position of East Linton Railway Station on the East Coast Main Line in relation to nearby stations and its connections to key settlements across the Scottish Borders and East Lothian.

Scheme Objectives

The Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs) were developed as part of the Full Business Case (FBC) for Reston and East Linton Stations. Objectives pertinent to this scheme (East Linton Station) included:

As identified within the FBC, the scheme enhances rail accessibility for eastern East Lothian, directly connecting East Linton to the key economic centres of Edinburgh and Newcastle and addressing the area’s previous constraints of limited public transport provision, beyond established bus services, and the historic absence of a local station. The intervention delivers significantly improved journey times, with rail travel times of around 20 minutes from East Linton to Edinburgh, materially improving access to regional labour markets and services. Bus services to Edinburgh typically take 50-55 minutes operating as an express service from East Linton to Edinburgh with a headway of between 20 and 30 minutes. Bus services to Newcastle require an interchange at Edinburgh with the whole trip taking in excess of 4 hours. Rail therefore now provides a significant travel time saving.

By strengthening the connectivity, reliability and attractiveness of public transport in East Lothian, the station expands access to employment, education and leisure opportunities, supports tourism and helps create conditions for business investment within the corridor. The intervention aligns with Scotland’s National Transport Strategy priorities of reducing inequalities; helping to deliver inclusive economic growth; taking climate action; and improving health and wellbeing. The scheme’s Full Business Case sets out in more detail the rationale for Transport Scotland’s investment in East Linton.

Purpose of the Stage 1 Evaluation

The Stage 1 Evaluation provides an early assessment of how East Linton Railway Station is performing following its reopening. Conducted two and a half years after opening, the stage one evaluation offers a high‑level review of emerging outcomes to determine whether the station is beginning to progress toward its intended Transport Planning Objectives and wider policy ambitions. Rather than measuring long‑term impacts, the evaluation focuses on initial trends and evidence that indicate whether the intervention is functioning as expected at this early stage.

Drawing on a structured set of data sources, the Stage 1 Evaluation establishes an evidence base that supports informed judgement on the station’s performance. This enables Transport Scotland to identify any emerging issues that may warrant attention and ensures that later evaluation stages build on consistent, credible and comparable information. This evaluation builds on the monitoring and evaluation plan developed at Full Business Case stage designed to determine progress against set objectives.

Evaluation Questions

Consistent with the Stage 1 purpose of providing an early indication of progress, the evaluation is structured around two central questions:

• Does the scheme improve access to the public transport network in East Lothian and enable economic growth in the area to be achieved in a sustainable way?
• Does the scheme achieve modal shift to more sustainable modes and contribute to delivering the National Transport Strategy vision and priorities?

These questions collectively frame the initial assessment of whether the station is beginning to deliver the anticipated outcomes and whether early indicators suggest that the scheme remains on track to meet its longer‑term objectives.

Scope of the Stage 1 Evaluation

The Stage 1 Evaluation examines early evidence of the station’s performance during the initial two to three years of operation, drawing on Predicted (FBC) baseline data to assess emerging change. The scope includes:

• Review of early observed (Post‑Opening) evidence, focusing on initial travel behaviour, usage patterns and accessibility outcomes.
• Use of established baseline datasets to ensure comparability between pre‑ and observed (Post‑Opening) conditions.
• Primary research through resident, business and visitor surveys to capture early behavioural and attitudinal responses to the station’s reopening.
• Secondary data analysis, including patronage data, service performance, socio‑economic indicators and planning information.
• Counterfactual analysis to distinguish scheme‑specific effects from wider background trends.
• Accessibility and journey time assessment to evaluate whether early conditions reflect anticipated improvements.
• Review of early economic indicators to identify any emerging changes in local activity or labour‑market conditions.
• A proportionate Value for Money assessment, drawing on observed changes in usage and accessibility to provide an initial indication of whether the intervention is performing in line with expectations.

Together, these elements form a coherent and proportionate evidence base that enables Transport Scotland to assess early progress toward the scheme’s objectives and to determine whether the intervention remains on track to deliver its anticipated long‑term outcomes.

Data Sources

The Stage 1 Evaluation draws on a wide-ranging set of data sources to provide a robust early assessment of the station’s performance relative to predicted (FBC) conditions. These sources support the identification of emerging usage patterns, accessibility changes, travel behaviour responses and early socio‑economic trends.

Primary Data Sources

The primary data sources outlined in Table 1 reflect the bespoke data‑collection programme designed for the East Linton Stage 1 Evaluation. They provide direct evidence on behavioural, economic and user‑experience changes emerging since the station opened in 2023. These datasets offer direct insight into how residents, businesses and visitors are responding to the improved accessibility and travel options.

Table 1. Primary Data Sources

Source	Description	Purpose in Evaluation
Household Surveys	Mixed‑mode residential survey programme including postal, online and face‑to‑face interviews with households in the East Linton catchment. The survey incorporates recall questions to account for the absence of pre‑scheme baseline data and includes embedded counterfactual questions.	Provide robust early evidence of behavioural change and accessibility impacts. The survey explores travel choices, mode shift, trip frequency, journey times, common destinations, perceptions of public transport reliability, and how travel behaviour may have differed without the new station.
Business Surveys	Targeted postal, online, telephone and face‑to‑face survey of businesses and employers in East Linton and surrounding postcodes.	Understand early economic responses to the station opening. This includes impacts on staff accessibility, customer access, supplier logistics, investment decisions, employment patterns, and business perceptions of wider economic opportunities.
Visitor Surveys	Face‑to‑face intercept surveys of visitors at East Linton Station and key local attractions.	Assess whether the station has influenced visitor numbers, travel modes, trip purposes and motivations for visiting East Linton.

Secondary Data Sources

The secondary data summarised in Table 2 support the Stage 1 Evaluation by providing objective, observed evidence on station usage, travel times, service performance, socio‑economic change and local development patterns. These datasets complement the primary data collection and form part of the evidence base used to assess early progress toward the Transport Planning Objectives.

Table 2. Secondary Data Sources.

Data Type	Specific Dataset/Source	Purpose in Evaluation
Rail Patronage	Office of Road and Rail (ORR) station patronage; train operator daily patronage; Rail Data Marketplace station‑to‑station flows; ORR punctuality data	Assess early station usage, destination patterns, and service reliability to understand whether rail demand is growing as expected.
Public Transport Journey Time Data	Podaris; Google Journey Time Planner; public transport timetables	Measure changes in journey times and overall connectivity to Edinburgh, Dumbar, Newcastle and other key destinations.
Socio‑economic Data	ONS Annual Population Survey; Scottish Indices of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2020; planning applications, approvals and completions; Stat-Xplore	Identify emerging economic, demographic and land‑use changes that may be linked to improved rail access.
Planning Data	Planning applications and completions. Local development plan proposals.	To assess whether the scheme has contributed to economic growth locally in terms of residential and commercial space.
Bus Data	Bus passenger numbers for key routes	Examine whether passengers are shifting from bus to rail, assess intermodal impacts, and understand how bus demand changes in response to the new station.
Traffic and Active Travel Data	Local traffic counts; walking and cycling data.	Provide supplementary evidence on modal shift by identifying changes in car usage and active travel levels, helping to understand wider behavioural responses to the station opening.

Counterfactual Data Sources

To isolate the specific effects of the new East Linton Station from wider socio‑economic or behavioural trends, the evaluation applies a proportionate counterfactual approach consistent with the agreed Stage 1 methodology. Because no predicted (FBC) baseline survey was undertaken for East Linton, the counterfactual evidence relies on a combination of stated counterfactual questions embedded within the primary surveys and secondary datasets for a comparable location once identified.

Table 3 outlines the counterfactual data sources used in the evaluation. These datasets help determine the extent to which observed changes can credibly be attributed to the reopening of East Linton Railway Station.

Table 3. Counterfactual Data Sources.

Source	Description	Purpose in Evaluation
Stated Counterfactual Questions in Household, Business and Visitor Surveys	Counterfactual questions embedded in all East Linton primary surveys, asking respondents how their travel behaviour, business decisions or visitor choices would have differed had the station not opened.	Provides the main source of counterfactual evidence for East Linton, helping to estimate the additional changes attributable to the station by distinguishing scheme‑related impacts from broader behavioural or economic trends.
Comparator Settlement Surveys	Structured telephone surveys conducted in the identified counterfactual location (Earlston), using a similar methodology, catchment approach and sample size as the East Linton resident surveys.	Provide a critical benchmark for distinguishing the effects of the new East Linton Station from broader external influences such as economic trends, demographic change or shifts in travel behaviour unrelated to the scheme.
Secondary Data for Comparator Area	Socio‑economic indicators, transport datasets, and other relevant statistics for the comparator settlement, covering the same time periods as the East Linton datasets.	Control for external influences such as national labour‑market trends, regional transport changes or macro‑economic shifts, ensuring that observed changes are not incorrectly attributed to the scheme.

In combination, these datasets enable a robust assessment of early trends in demand, accessibility, travel behaviour and economic activity. They ensure comparability with predicted (FBC) baseline conditions and provide the evidence needed to form an initial view on whether the station is beginning to deliver its intended outcomes.

Logic Diagram

Figure 2 summarises the strategic rationale and benefits of the scheme, linking objectives to outputs, outcomes, and long-term impacts. The outputs and outcomes contribute to wider impacts such as increased use of sustainable, clean and healthier travel choices in East Lothian, reduced climate impacts and sustainable population growth. The diagram also identifies the primary and secondary data sources used to assess scheme performance, providing a clear and structured framework for evaluating delivery and benefits.

Report Structure

The remainder of this report is organised into the following sections:

• Operation of the East Linton Railway Station - Provides an overview of station operations since reopening, including service provision, patronage levels, travel patterns and journey time performance.
• Primary Data Analysis - Summarises the findings from the resident, business and visitor surveys, highlighting emerging behavioural, attitudinal and accessibility‑related changes.
• Secondary Data Analysis - Reviews rail patronage and performance data, accessibility metrics, socio‑economic indicators, land‑use information and supplementary modal evidence to assess early outcomes relative to the predicted (FBC) baseline.
• Counterfactual Analysis - Presents comparative evidence from the designated counterfactual location to help distinguish scheme‑specific changes from wider external trends.
• Performance Against Objectives - Assesses early progress toward the scheme’s Transport Planning Objectives. This includes a summary of methods, indicators used, primary and secondary evidence, key findings and initial interpretation for each objective, as well as an assessment of early contribution to National Transport Strategy priorities.
• Value for Money Assessment - Provides a proportionate early assessment of Value for Money, drawing on observed changes in usage, accessibility and travel behaviour, alongside initial economic indicators and proportional benefit estimates.
• Conclusions - Summarises the key emerging findings of the Stage 1 Evaluation.
• Appendices - Includes supporting materials such as survey questionnaires, additional data tables, mapping, methodological details and Value for Money calculation sheets.

Stage 1 Evaluation Limitations

The following study limitations have been identified:

• Whilst an ‘impact area’ has been established, within which Residential, Business and Visitors surveys have been focused, there may be impact areas beyond the scope of this study that are either not currently obvious or anticipated. These may go beyond the extent of East Linton and East Lothian.
• Non-response bias, where individuals contacted for the survey choose not to participate. The opinions or behaviours of these non-respondents may differ in meaningful ways from those who did participate, leading to a bias in the results.
• Social desirability bias, respondents may have answered questions in a way that they believe will be viewed favourably by others.
• Not all secondary data sources have data available for 2026. In these instances, the most recently available data sources have been used.
• Limited information is available to inform the impact on other modes of travel. Bus data and active travel data is sparse with no baseline data available for comparisons.
• Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) data is not yet available to demonstrate the post-scheme situation from a deprivation perspective. Data for 2020 is currently available and this is due to be updated towards the end of 2026.
• Traffic count data is also sparse within close proximity to the scheme, with counts only available on the A1 for comparisons pre and post scheme delivery.
• It is not clear how journey times have been quantified at the business case stage; therefore, journey times reported within the business case have been compared against observed data to interpret performance.
• Rail revenue predictions and assumptions are not clear in the business case. In the absence of actual rail revenue data, due to the commercial nature of this data, estimates have been generated based on observed demand.
• Limited socio-economic datasets are available to compare pre and post scheme changes. Many datasets are yet to be refreshed to demonstrate the post-scheme position. It is also recognised that many socio-economic metrics are captured for large geographical areas, making it difficult to attribute any improvements to a particular intervention.