Secondary data analysis

Rail Patronage & Performance Data

Introduction

In order to aid the scheme’s evaluation, an assessment was undertaken to measure the patronage and performance data associated with East Linton Railway Station.

Methodology

Rail patronage data for Reston was downloaded from the Rail Data Marketplace (RDM), a government-funded platform hosted by the Rail Delivery Group consisting of various publishers within the rail industry that have uploaded rail-related data. Within the RDM, the ORR uploads an annual Origin Destination Matrix (ODM) that provides a detailed list of all journeys made between all mainline stations (i.e. not underground or light rail stations) in Great Britain over the course of a financial year. The ODM provided by the ORR is sourced from the MOIRA 2.2 base revenue and journeys matrix, which itself is primarily derived from LENNON (Latest Earnings Networked Nationally Over Night) the railway’s national ticketing and revenue system for all TOCs operating within Great Britain, as well as some local ticketing data.

Additional patronage data was provided directly by the two rail operators serving the station (Scotrail and TransPennine Express). The data provided by TransPennine Express covers the calendar year of 2025. For Scotrail, the data was sourced from the LENNON reporting system, which runs over the course of a financial year. Consequently, the data does not fit perfectly within a calendar year (running from 5^th January 2025 to 3^rd January 2026), however any difference in terms of patronage will be minimal and so is compared directly within this research as the 2025 calendar year.

Rail performance data was sourced directly from the ORR’s data portal, specifically the statistics related to performance at stations. Punctuality data is included within Table 3130, which covers both Time to 3 (the percentage of trains arriving at stations within three minutes of scheduled arrival) and cancellations (the percentage of trains that were scheduled, but failed to call at the station). Table 3130 contains three subcategories, including Time to three and cancellations by stations, stations and operators, and region and route (the latter of which is not discussed). This data additionally covers the first five periods of FY 26, unlike the rail patronage data at the time of writing.

Data & Analysis

ORR Data - Patronage

Figure 57 below shows the average daily entries and exits for East Linton Railway Station from the station’s opening (during FY 24) to the latest available dataset from the ORR at the time of writing (FY 25). As the railway station opened in mid-December 2023, only the relevant period from then until the end of FY 24 in March was used in calculating average daily entries and exits. Overall, daily entries and exits at East Linton declined from FY 24 to FY 25, from 198 passengers per day to 184 passengers per day respectively, although these periods are not directly comparable due to only comprising a brief period of quarter three, in addition to quarter four of FY 24.

However, these figures are below the demand forecasted results included within the Final Business Case (FBC) for East Linton Railway Station. The forecast years within the FBC modelled usage within 2022 and 2027, so are not directly comparable with realised passenger numbers. Nonetheless, the FBC gave a forecast of 356 daily passengers in 2022 and 366 daily passengers by 2027. In its first full financial year of operating (FY 25), East Linton did not reach the modelled passenger numbers for 2022, falling short of the 2022 usage projection by 172 daily passengers (achieving just 51% of the 2022 forecast).

The highest passenger flows from East Linton are shown below in Figure 58. Overall, the largest passenger flow from East Linton during FY 25 was to and from Edinburgh (Waverley), representing 78% of total journeys, itself an increase of three percentage points from FY 24. No other stations accounted for 10% or more of passenger flows in FY 25, with Dunbar being the second largest flow at 6%. Newcastle did however, account for 10% of total passenger flows in FY 24, the year in which the station opened, but the percentage share had dropped to 5% in FY 25.

Operator Data - Patronage

In terms of patronage breakdown by operator (using data directly supplied by the operators), TransPennine Express accounts for the majority of journeys to and from East Linton, at around 80% of total journeys, with Scotrail accounting for 20% of journeys to the railway station. A total of 115,625 journeys were made to and from East Linton for the 2025 calendar year, being composed of 92,042 for TransPennine and 23,583 for Scotrail. This therefore represents a significant increase in passenger numbers at East Linton compared to FY 25 (66,982), the latest patronage figure available from the ORR.

However, there was an imbalance between outbound and inbound journeys to East Linton included within the data supplied by TransPennine. For example, 56,764 outbound journeys from East Linton were recorded, with only 35,278 inbound journeys recorded. Whilst the exact reasons behind this uneven split are unknown, one potential reason is an exploitation of split ticketing in one direction, as the data provided had not been corrected for any potential split ticketing. Split ticketing represents a quirk within the rail system, where a consumer purchases multiple rail tickets for a single journey from their start to end point, instead of using a single through ticket. Consequently, this can artificially inflate patronage data at a given railway station, by double counting passenger numbers if the split occurs at that station.

For Scotrail, the five most popular flows from East Linton included Edinburgh, Dunbar, Glasgow (Central/Queen Street), Haymarket (Edinburgh) and Musselburgh. Of these, Edinburgh and Dunbar both averaged 10 or more passengers per day travelling to or from East Linton, at 30 and 10 respectively. Glasgow (Central/Queen Street) averaged eight passengers per day, with Haymarket seven and Musselburgh two.

For TransPennine Express, the five most popular flows from East Linton included Edinburgh, Dunbar, Newcastle, Berwick-upon-Tweed and Reston. Edinburgh and Dunbar averaged more than 10 passengers per day travelling to or from East Linton, with Edinburgh significantly higher than Dunbar, at 170 and 34 passengers per day respectively. Newcastle averaged 10 passengers per day, whilst Berwick-upon-Tweed averaged eight and Reston six. Notably, whilst the data supplied by TransPennine Express suggests that Reston is the fifth most popular flow from East Linton, this is not reflected in the ORR data, with the reasons behind this variation unclear.

Punctuality Data

Figure 59 and Figure 60 below shows the punctuality data at East Linton Railway Station from FY 24 to FY 26, for Scotrail and TransPennine Express respectively. FY 24 only covers the period when the station had a regular scheduled passenger service, from December 2023.

For Scotrail, the data shows that overall punctuality has increased slightly from FY 24 to FY 26, from 85.5% in FY 24 to 85.9% in FY 26. However, there is the notable exception of FY 25, whereby the punctuality of Scotrail services decreased significantly to 74.7%. During FY 25, there were driver shortages impacting services between Dunbar and Edinburgh from the 10^th of July to the 7^th of October. As a result, the number of scheduled stops at East Linton from Scotrail services reduced to only one train per day, the 06:51 from Dunbar to Edinburgh. This had the consequence of impacting on the Time to three statistics for East Linton, resulting in the noticeable decline observed during this FY. All three figures are below the average Time to three for Scotrail across their network, which was 89.1% in FY 24, 88.85% in FY 25 and 89.85% in FY 26 (first two quarters).

In contrast to Scotrail, the punctuality of TransPennine Express services, as shown in Figure 60, has increased year-on-year, from 77.4% in FY 24, 83.1% in FY 25 to 84.9% in FY 26 representing a 7.5 percentage point increase (with the bulk of the improvements to reliability occurring between FY 24 and FY 25 at 5.7 percentage points). These figures however are all considerably higher than the average Time to three for TransPennine Express across their network, which was 67.8% in FY 24, 67.5% in FY 25 and 68.1% in FY 26.

Rail Revenue

Introduction

Rail revenues for the two operators serving East Linton Railway Station (TransPennine Express and ScotRail) were estimated to support the evaluation and ex-post value for money calculations. Rail revenue is not typically shared as it is considered commercially sensitive data. However, LNER provided revenue data for Reston Railway Station that was used to benchmark estimated revenues for East Linton.

Methodology

Estimated rail revenues at East Linton Railway Station were calculated using the patronage data supplied by the relevant rail operators. BRFares (a website where most combinations of advance fares on the GB rail network are visible) was used to find the least and most expensive advance tickets; an average advance fare was then calculated with a further 30% deducted (to reflect the typical ratio of greater, cheaper advance tickets being available on any given flow).

Off-peak and Anytime ticket categories were also available on BRFares, which were used to estimate fares from passengers who chose to travel flexibly (utilising more expensive, non-fixed tickets); this was based on a return fare, which was divided by half to cover an individual single journey. Passenger flows were then multiplied by a combination of the flexible single fare and the calculated advance fare.

Each flow was categorised by ticket price from East Linton Railway Station. Long flows represented journeys where 50% of the return fare exceeded £50, typically representing longer flows into England such as London or Manchester. Short-distance flows were those where 50% of a return fare was £4 or less, for example, Dunbar. All remaining journeys were classified as medium-distance flows, representing the majority of trips to destinations in Scotland and northern England.

Advance fares on long distance flows were weighted higher (at 4:1 advance to flexible), evenly medium flows, and lower on short flows (at 1:4 advance to flexible), to reflect a greater overall share of advance fares on longer flows and flexible tickets on shorter flows. Advance fares are not purchasable for all possible flows discussed in this analysis (for example, between East Linton and Dunbar). In this case, only the flexible ticket was considered when calculating revenue. Applying this ratio was also necessary to account for the rollout of LNER’s Single Leg Pricing in June 2023, which was later expanded upon by their ‘Simpler Fares’ trial. As a result, Off-Peak and Super Off-Peak fares were removed on certain flows, including for all stations between Edinburgh Waverley and Newcastle towards London.

Finally, to account for any additional reductions in revenues, for example from Railcard discounts, child fares, season tickets and GroupSave tickets, an additional 20% was taken off the final calculated revenue. To account for uncertainty around used assumptions, a +/-10% revenue estimate was produced to account for any further fluctuations in revenue.

This process was found to produce an overall revenue estimate that was within 4% of actual revenue totals that were provided by LNER for use in the Reston Railway Station stage 1 evaluation.

Data & Analysis

Table 27 below shows the estimated revenues for TransPennine Express at East Linton Railway Station. Total estimated revenues for TransPennine Express ranged between £529,355 at the lowest estimate and £646,989 at the highest estimate. The greatest revenue flow for TransPennine Express was to Edinburgh (Waverley), estimated at between £241,814 and £295,551. King’s Cross London was the second greatest revenue flow for TransPennine Express, with a range between £79,362 and £96,998. Six flows had a lowest revenue estimate at a minimum of £10,000 (Newcastle, Leeds, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Dunbar, Reston and Glasgow BR), with the remainder less than £10,000.

Table 27: Estimated revenue range for TransPennine Express

Station Flow	Lowest Revenue Estimate	Highest Revenue Estimate	Sum of Annual Patronage
Edinburgh	£241,814	£295,551	62,195
King's Cross London	£79,362	£96,998	1,370
Newcastle	£59,317	£72,499	3,580
Leeds	£33,984	£41,536	1,386
Berwick-upon-Tweed	£22,711	£27,758	3,091
Dunbar	£12,103	£14,793	12,452
Reston	£11,608	£14,187	2,014
Glasgow BR	£10,573	£12,922	1,317
Haymarket (Edinburgh)	£6,930	£8,470	1,279
Manchester BR	£6,756	£8,257	241
Other Flows	£44,197	£54,018	3,117
Total	£529,355	£646,989	92,042

Table 28 below shows the estimated revenues for ScotRail at East Linton Railway Station. Total estimated revenues for ScotRail ranged between £112,241 at the lowest estimate and £137,184 at the highest estimate. The greatest revenue flow for ScotRail was to Edinburgh, estimated at between £42,924 and £52,452. Three flows had lowest revenue estimates at a minimum of £10,000, Glasgow BR (£20,528 to £25,089), King’s Cross London (£11,586 to £14,160) and Haymarket (Edinburgh) (£10,984 to £13,424). All other flows had the lowest revenue estimate at less than £10,000.

Table 28: Estimated revenue range for ScotRail

Station Flow	Lowest Revenue Estimate	Highest Revenue Estimate	Sum of Annual Patronage
Edinburgh	£42,924	£52,462	11,040
Glasgow BR	£20,528	£25,089	2,557
King's Cross London	£11,586	£14,160	200
Haymarket (Edinburgh)	£10,984	£13,424	2,825
Dunbar	£4,039	£4,937	3,740
Musselburgh	£3,149	£3,849	810
Dalmeny	£1,512	£1,848	170
Paisley Gilmour Street	£1,390	£1,699	117
Dundee	£1,350	£1,650	100
Leuchars	£1,224	£1,497	113
Other Flows	£13,556	£16,569	1,911
Total	£112,241	£137,184	23,583

Total rail passenger revenues for East Linton Railway Station are therefore estimated to be between £641,596 and £784,173.

The resulting numbers have been used to estimate ex-post Value for Money of the scheme.

Accessibility & Journey Time Analysis

Introduction

The accessibility section aimed to offer a comparison between two different accessibility scenarios, one before the opening of East Linton Railway Station, and one after, to observe the change in the number of households which benefitted from the opening of the station. A 3km catchment area was used for the station site, which was analysed using an accessibility analysis software (Podaris).

Methodology

Podaris was used to understand two different accessibility scenarios for East Linton, namely pre-station and post-station. The accessibility analysis utilised isochrone outputs from Podaris, which are GIS-based shapes that can show spatially how accessible a given point is. For the pre-station analysis, the point selected was based on the three nearest existing railway stations to the site (Drem, North Berwick and Dunbar) to measure accessibility from these stations to East Linton. For the post-station analysis, this point was the site of East Linton Railway Station. In both scenarios, to measure public transport accessibility of East Linton from Edinburgh, an additional point was placed at Edinburgh Waverley.

The overall method adopted to measure accessibility was as follows:

• Generate journey time isochrones in Podaris (by walk, cycle, bus and public transport from Edinburgh) for a pre-station and repeated for a post-station scenario, giving a total of eight different categories.
• Overlay the journey time isochrone outputs with the census area boundary outputs over a 3km boundary around the site of East Linton Railway Station.
• Calculate the number of households which are situated within the 3km boundary, based on the isochrone layers which overlap the census area boundary outputs.
• Produce tables for each of the eight categories across both scenarios.
• Produce accessibility maps which show journey time catchments across all eight categories within the 3km catchment boundary.

Table 29 below presents the data that was utilised to inform this analysis.

Table 29: Accessibility Mapping Datasets

Datasets used	Description
Road Network	Existing road network; Podaris utilises Open Street Maps as standard
Bus / Public Transport Timetable Information	Sourced from Basemap DataCutter and imported into Podaris Pre-station: 2023 Q4 data was used Post-station: Latest available data (2026 Q1) was used
Destinations	Pre-station: Drem, North Berwick and Dunbar; Edinburgh Waverley Post-station: East Linton; Edinburgh Waverley
Origins	In-built origin grid within Podaris
East Linton 3km Catchment	Census area output boundaries and associated household numbers within 3km catchment boundary

Table 30 below presents the parameters that were utilised to inform this analysis.

Table 30: Accessibility Mapping Parameters

Parameters	Description
Network	All calculations utilised Open Street Map network, built into Podaris (giving reflected walking/cycling times)
Walk Speed	4.8kph (effective allowance of 1hr travel time)
Cycle Speed	16kph (effective allowance of 1hr travel time)
Bus 'Arrival Time'	Tuesday, at: 08:00, 09:00, 10:00, 11:00, 12:00, 13:00 (to ensure that limited bus services are captured within the research). Allowance of 1hr travel time given.
Bus Transfer Limit	3 (i.e. allow to interchange 3 times)
Walk to/from and between bus stops	Max allowance is a total of 1,200m for walking to cover distance to/from the first and last bus stops, plus any required walking interchange
Wait Times	Timetable

Data & Analysis

Pre-Opening

Walk

Prior to the opening of East Linton Railway Station, no households within a 3km boundary of the site were able to reach an existing railway station within 1 hour (assuming a walking speed of 4.8kph).

Cycle

Table 31 presents the number of households prior to the opening of East Linton Railway Station able to reach an existing railway station by cycling. Assuming a cycling speed of 16kph, no households are within a 3km boundary of an existing railway station. However, 1078 households were within a 60-minute cycle of an existing railway station.

Table 31: Households within cycle journey time catchment of existing railway station

Travel time upper band (minutes)	Distance(km)	Households
6	~1.6	0
11	~2.9	0
18	~4.8	0
24	~6.4	2
30	~8.0	32
36	~9.6	908
42	~11.2	120
48	~12.8	12
54	~14.4	4
60	~16.0	0
Total	1,078

Figure 61 demonstrates the current rail accessibility by cycling for census output areas within a 3km catchment of the railway station in East Linton Railway Station. The darker shades on this map indicate longer cycle times to reach an existing railway station. Lighter shades indicate a shorter cycle time to reach an existing railway station.

Bus

Table 32 presents the number of households prior to the opening of East Linton Railway Station able to reach an existing railway station by bus. This is assuming a transfer limit of three, with a maximum walking access distance of 1.2km from the journey origin to the journey destination. There are 635 households within the 3km boundary of the present East Linton Railway Station site within a 30-minute travel time by bus of an existing railway station. There are an additional 294 households within a 60-minute travel time by bus of an existing railway station.

Table 32: Households within bus journey time catchment of existing railway station

Travel time upper band (minutes)	Households
6	0
12	0
18	0
24	167
30	468
36	259
42	15
48	6
54	5
60	9
Total	929

Figure 62 demonstrates the current rail accessibility by bus for census output areas within a 3km catchment of the railway station in East Linton. The darker shades on this map indicate longer travel times by bus to reach an existing railway station. Lighter shades indicate a shorter travel time by bus to reach an existing railway station.

Public Transport (from Edinburgh)

Table 33 presents the number of households able to reach the site of East Linton Railway Station from Edinburgh by public transport prior to the opening of the railway station. Assuming a centre point in Edinburgh at the top of the Waverley Steps near Edinburgh Waverley railway station, no households can reach this point within 30 minutes; however, extending the journey time to 60 minutes increases the number of households able to reach this point to 333.

Table 33: Households within public transport journey time catchment of East Linton railway station from Edinburgh (prior to station opening)

Travel time upper band (minutes)	Households
6	0
12	0
18	0
24	0
30	0
36	0
42	0
48	0
54	0
60	333
Total	333

Figure 63 demonstrates the accessibility by using public transport for census output areas within a 3km catchment of the railway station in East Linton, prior to the station’s opening. The darker shades on this map indicate longer travel times by public transport to reach East Linton Railway Station from Edinburgh. Lighter shades indicate a shorter travel time by public transport to reach East Linton Railway Station from Edinburgh.

Observed (Post‑Opening)

Walk

Table 34 presents the number of households Observed (Post‑Opening) of East Linton Railway Station able to reach the site by walking. Assuming a walking speed of 4.8kph, 949 households are within a 38-minute walk of East Linton railway station, assuming a 3km walk, with a further 102 within a 4.8km walk (60 minutes).

Table 34: Households within walk journey time catchment of East Linton Railway Station

Travel time upper band (minutes)	Distance (km)	Households
6	0.5	223
12	1.0	572
18	1.4	87
24	1.9	15
30	2.4	15
38	3.0	38
42	3.4	16
48	3.8	25
54	4.3	43
60	4.8	17
Total	1,051

Figure 64 demonstrates the current rail accessibility by walking for census output areas within a 3km catchment of the railway station in East Linton. The darker shades on this map indicate longer travel times by walking to reach East Linton Railway Station. Lighter shades indicate a shorter travel time by walking to reach East Linton Railway Station.

Cycle

Table 35 presents the number of households able to reach East Linton Railway Station by cycling, within a 3km catchment boundary. Assuming a cycling speed of 16kph, 909 households are able to reach the station within a 3km cycle, with an additional 169 households able to reach the station within up to 30 minutes cycle time.

Table 35: Households within cycle journey time catchment of East Linton Railway Station

Travel time upper band (minutes)	Distance (km)	Households
6	1.6	785
11	2.9	124
18	4.8	90
24	6.4	50
30	8.0	29
36	9.6	0
42	11.2	0
48	12.8	0
54	14.4	0
60	16.0	0
-	Total	1,078

Figure 65 demonstrates the current rail accessibility by cycling for census output areas within a 3km catchment of the railway station in East Linton. The darker shades on this map indicate longer travel times by cycling to reach East Linton Railway Station. Lighter shades indicate a shorter travel time by cycling to reach East Linton Railway Station.

Bus

Table 36 presents the number of households able to reach East Linton Railway Station by bus, within a 3km catchment boundary. Assuming a transfer limit of three (with a maximum walking access distance of 1.2km from the journey origin to the journey destination), 924 households are able to reach the state within a 30-minute journey time by bus.

Table 36: Households within bus journey time catchment of East Linton Railway Station

Travel time upper band (minutes)	Households
6	333
12	485
18	84
24	23
30	0
36	0
42	0
48	0
54	0
60	0
Grand Total	924

Figure 66 demonstrates the current rail accessibility by using the bus for census output areas within a 3km catchment of the railway station in East Linton. The darker shades on this map indicate longer travel times by bus to reach East Linton Railway Station. Lighter shades indicate a shorter travel time by bus to reach East Linton Railway Station.

Public Transport (from Edinburgh)

Table 37 presents the number of households able to reach East Linton Railway Station from Edinburgh by public transport. Assuming a centre point in Edinburgh at the top of the Waverley Steps near Edinburgh Waverley railway station, 270 households can reach East Linton Railway Station from this point within 30 minutes; however, extending the journey time to 60 minutes increases the number of households able to do so to 919.

Table 37: Households within public transport journey time catchment of East Linton Railway Station from Edinburgh

Travel time upper band (minutes)	Households
6	0
12	0
18	0
24	0
30	270
36	473
42	138
48	13
54	12
60	13
Total	919

Figure 67 demonstrates the current accessibility by using public transport for census output areas within a 3km catchment of the railway station in East Linton. The darker shades on this map indicate longer travel times by public transport to reach East Linton Railway Station from Edinburgh. Lighter shades indicate a shorter travel time by public transport to reach East Linton Railway Station from Edinburgh.

Rail Accessibility Summary

Three modes were considered within this analysis; walking, cycling and bus, with public transport to Edinburgh additionally included. Within the 3km catchment circle, prior to the station’s opening, no households by walking and 1078 households by cycling were able to reach an existing railway station within 60 minutes (in this case, Dunbar, Drem or North Berwick). By bus, 929 households were able to reach an existing railway station, although with a minimum travel time of between 18-24 minutes. A total of 333 households were able to reach East Linton from Edinburgh within 60 minutes, although journey times were at the upper reaches of the 60-minute threshold, between 54 and 60 minutes.

Observed (Post‑Opening), 1051 households by walking (an increase of 1051), 1078 by cycling (no change) and 924 by bus (a decrease of five) were able to reach East Linton Railway Station. Notably however, a total of 909 households by cycling were now able to reach East Linton Railway Station within an 11-minute cycle, whilst by bus 924 households were able to reach the railway station within a 30-minute bus journey (an increase of 289). Additionally, 919 households were able to reach Edinburgh by public transport within 60 minutes (an increase of 586), with 270 households now within a 30-minute travel time of East Linton from Edinburgh. Therefore, rail accessibility in East Linton has improved significantly Observed (Post‑Opening) of the railway station, improving local, regional and national links to the area.

Socio‑economic Indicators

Introduction

To aid the scheme evaluation, changes in various socio-economic indicators have been assessed for East Linton, across different levels from the smallest output (census output areas), data zone level to the largest output (local authority level). For all analysis considered for East Linton, this was repeated for the counterfactual location for East Linton of Earlston. East Linton is located within East Lothian, whereas Earlston is located within the Scottish Borders.

Analysis of socio-economic data was undertaken to establish if the scheme has contributed to improvements in the local economy and reductions in levels of deprivation within the station catchment area.

Changes in a range of socio-economic indicators have been reviewed for East Linton across multiple spatial scales, from the smallest units (census output areas), through DataZone level, to the largest scale (Local Authority level). This analysis has been undertaken consistently for both East Linton and its counterfactual comparison location, Earlston. East Linton is located within East Lothian Local Authority whilst Earlston is located within the Scottish Borders Local Authority.

Methodology

The socio-economic indicators used within this analysis aimed to cover any changes in economic conditions and the labour market from the periods before and after opening of East Linton railway station. The datasets that have been used are listed below, with the range of data available:

• Gross Value Added (GVA) – 2019 to 2023
• Department for Work and Pensions (November 2019 to November 2025)
  • Housing Benefit Claimants
  • Households on Universal Credit
• Labour Market Statistics
  • Economic Activity (October 2024 to September 2025)
  • Economic Inactivity (October 2024 to September 2025)
  • Employment by Occupation (October 2024 to September 2025)
  • Qualifications (January 2024 to December 2024)
  • Earnings by Place of Residence (2025)
  • Out of Work Benefits (January 2013 to January 2026)

Data & Analysis

Gross Value Added

Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure that represents the value of goods and services produced in either an area, industry or sector of an economy. GVA is calculated by subtracting the value of intermediate consumption from the value of outputs, or in other words the value of goods and services produced minus the costs associated in the production of these goods and services.

GVA is a key component of GDP and is particularly useful when assessing economic performance of smaller, regional geographic units. GVA from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is measured at the Scottish data zone level in Scotland, for which the output for East Linton is divided into a number of data zones, referred to as East Linton and Rural (ELAR) and shown in Figure 68. The most relevant data zones for the town of East Linton are ELAR (02, 03 and 04). The equivalent output for the counterfactual location of Earlston is divided into two data zones (Earlston – West and Earlston – East) and shown in Figure 69.

Table 38 below presents the total GVA (pounds million) for East Linton and the counterfactual location Earlston. The data shows that GVA for the relevant East Linton data zones GVA increased by an average of 32% between 2019 and 2023, ranging from 19% for ELAR – 03, to 35% for ELAR – 02, and finally 43% for ELAR – 04. For Earlston, GVA increased by 286% for Earlston – East but reduced slightly for Earlston – West (although rounded to 0% change).

Table 38: GVA for East Linton and Earlston

Total GVA, pound million	2019	2023	% Change 2019-2023
East Linton and Rural - 02	5.96	8.05	35%
East Linton and Rural - 03	3.15	3.76	19%
East Linton and Rural - 04	14.04	20.02	43%
Earlston - East	8.89	34.34	286%
Earlston - West	26.48	26.36	0%
East Lothian	1,830	2,351	28%
Scottish Borders	2,441	2,810	15%

There is a high degree of uncertainty with these measures and ONS/NOMIS advise that caution is taken when making comparisons between data at granular level. This is because data at the lowest levels are more volatile than for larger aggregated geographies. This is demonstrated by the substantial differences between Earlston data zones ranging from 0% change to 286% change. For this reason, it cannot be easily determined whether the railway station in East Linton (opening in December 2023) has had an impact on local GVA. Differences most likely reflect wider economic conditions, localised factors, and the very early stage in the scheme’s lifecycle, rather than the direct impact of a new railway station.

When looking at the wider authority GVA the percentage change is more modest with 28% change in East Lothian and 15% change in Scottish Borders over the last four years. This highlights an irregularity within Earlston – East.

Department for Work and Pensions

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) provide statistics relating to a number of different benefits, with access to these datasets available through the Stat-Xplore platform. However, much of the benefits data is only available at larger output areas (local authority or national level), with only two relevant statistics being available at the local level (census output area), these being Housing Benefit Claimants and Households on Universal Credit. The geographic location of the census output areas is shown below in Figure 70 and Figure 71 for East Linton and Earlston respectively.

Housing Benefit Claimants

Housing benefit is a benefit designed to help claimants pay rent (whether in full or part) if they are on a low income and can be claimed by people who are unemployed or working. Table 39 and Table 40 show the number of housing benefit claimants for East Linton and Earlston respectively. Note that the ‘Total’ row may not sum the census output areas due to disclosure control applied by the DWP to ensure confidentiality.

Across both East Linton and Earlston, the number of individuals claiming housing benefits decreased between November 2019 and November 2025; from 122 to 71 for East Linton (representing a 42% decrease) and from 73 to 43 for Earlston (representing a 41% decrease).

Table 39: Housing benefit claimants for East Linton from November 2019 to November 2025

East Linton	Nov-19	Nov-20	Nov-21	Nov-22	Nov-23	Nov-24	Nov-25
East Linton and Rural - 02	13	12	8	5	8	6	7
East Linton and Rural - 03	17	23	20	18	21	20	13
East Linton and Rural - 04	45	37	38	40	33	33	32
Total	122	124	118	113	100	94	71

Table 40: Housing benefit claimants for Earlston from November 2019 to November 2025

Earlston	Nov-19	Nov-20	Nov-21	Nov-22	Nov-23	Nov-24	Nov-25
Earlston - West	42	41	30	36	27	32	33
Earlston - East	27	33	28	25	19	25	17
Total	73	69	63	59	49	51	43

Households on Universal Credit

Households on Universal Credit is defined as the number of households which have an assessment period that spans the count date, which is the second Thursday of the month. In order for a household to be counted in these statistics, there must be an assessment that passes this count date. Table 41 and Table 42 show the number of households claiming Universal Credit in East Linton and Earlston respectively. Note that, similar to the housing benefit claimant statistics, the ‘Total’ row may not sum the census output areas due to disclosure applied by the DWP to ensure confidentiality.

Across both East Linton and Earlston, the number of households claiming Universal Credit increased; from 52 to 127 for ELAR 02-04 (representing a 144% increase) and from 39 to 150 for Earlston (representing a 285% increase).

Table 41: Number of households claiming Universal Credit in East Linton

East Linton	Nov-19	Nov-20	Nov-21	Nov-22	Nov-23	Nov-24	Nov-25
East Linton and Rural - 02	11	26	21	22	22	27	33
East Linton and Rural - 03	23	45	31	27	21	33	45
East Linton and Rural - 04	16	40	39	45	52	53	53
Total	52	108	90	88	97	121	127

Table 42: Number of households claiming Universal Credit in Earlston

Earlston	Nov-19	Nov-20	Nov-21	Nov-22	Nov-23	Nov-24	Nov-25
Earlston - West	18	30	34	31	29	84	86
Earlston - East	25	57	57	63	55	55	65
Total	39	86	87	93	88	141	150

The observed decline in the number of individuals claiming housing benefits, alongside a marked increase in households claiming Universal Credit is likely to reflect the ongoing transition from legacy benefits to Universal Credit rather than a fundamental change in underlying levels of deprivation. These changes are consistent across both East Linton and Earlston and therefore cannot be attributed to the scheme.

Labour and Market Statistics

The labour and market statistics cover the local authorities of East Lothian (for East Linton) and the Scottish Borders (for Earlston), with data not being available at the census output area level or the DataZone level.

Economic Activity

Table 43 shows the economic activity of East Lothian and the Scottish Borders, with a comparison to Scotland and Great Britain as a whole. For East Lothian, 85.4% of people were considered economically active, which is higher than both the Scotland average (77.3%) and Great Britain (79.0%). For the Scottish Borders, 78.3% of people were considered economically active, which is higher than the Scotland average (77.3%) but lower than Great Britain (79.0%).

Table 43: Economic Activity for East Lothian and Scottish Borders (October 2024 to September 2025)

Gender	Category	East Lothian Numbers	East Lothian %	Scottish Borders Numbers	Scottish Borders %	Scotland (%)	Great Britain (%)
All	Economically active†	60,000	85.4	55,000	78.3	77.3	79
All	In employment†	57,600	82.2	53,700	76.5	74.4	75.6
All	Employees†	49,500	71.4	44,200	64.1	66.3	65.8
All	Self-employed†	7,800	10.3	9,300	12.4	7.7	9.5
All	Unemployed§	2,400	4	#	#	3.7	4.3
Male	Economically active†	28,000	89.4	30,100	81.1	80.6	82.4
Male	In employment†	26,400	84.6	28,900	77.9	77.1	78.6
Male	Employees†	21,500	70.3	23,800	66	67	66.1
Male	Self-employed†	4,600	13.4	4,900	11.9	9.7	12.2
Male	Unemployed§	#	#	#	#	4.2	4.5
Female	Economically active†	32,000	82.1	25,000	75.3	74.1	75.7
Female	In employment†	31,200	80.3	24,800	74.8	71.7	72.5
Female	Employees†	28,100	72.4	20,400	61.9	65.6	65.4
Female	Self-employed†	3,100	7.9	4,400	12.9	5.9	6.8
Female	Unemployed§	#	#	!	!	3.2	4.1

#   Sample size too small for reliable estimate;

- numbers and % are for those aged 16 and over.

% is a proportion of economically active;

†   -   numbers are for those aged 16 and over, % are for those aged 16-64;

! - Estimate is not available since sample size is disclosive.

Economic Inactivity

Economic inactivity measures people who have not worked within the previous four weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next two weeks. This could include people who are caring for their family or people who have retired. Table 44 shows the number of those residing in East Lothian and the Scottish Borders who are classified as economically inactive.

Overall, East Lothian has a lower rate of economically inactive residents (14.6%) compared to 22.7% for Scotland and 21% for Great Britain. In the Scottish Borders, 21.7% of residents were economically inactive.

Table 44: Economic Inactivity in East Lothian and Scottish Borders (October 2024 to September 2025)

Category	East Lothian Level	East Lothian %	Scottish Borders Level	Scottish Borders %	Scotland (%)	Great Britain(%)
Total	9,900	14.6	14,500	21.7	22.7	21
Student	#	#	3,700	25.8	23.4	26.5
Looking After Family/Home	#	#	2,300	15.8	15.6	18.2
Temporary Sick	!	!	#	#	2.6	2.2
Long-Term Sick	3,300	33.5	3,000	20.8	33.8	27.8
Discouraged	!	!	!	!	#	0.3
Retired	1,800	18.4	2,900	20.3	15.5	13
Other	#	#	#	#	8.8	11.9
Wants A Job	#	#	3,900	26.8	18.1	20.5
Does Not Want A Job	8,700	88.2	10,600	73.2	81.9	79.5

Qualifications

Qualifications data was most recently available from January 2024 to December 2024 and is presented below within Table 45. RQF1 is equivalent to a National 4 qualification in Scotland, and a GSCE grade 1, 2 or 3 in England. RQF4 is equivalent to a HNC at both levels. Overall, East Lothian is higher than the Scottish Borders for those with an RQF4 qualification and above, as well as Scotland and Great Britain nationally.

Table 45: Qualifications for East Lothian and Scottish Borders (January 2024 to December 2024)

Category	East Lothian Level	East Lothian %	Scottish Borders Level	Scottish Borders %	Scotland (%)	Great Britain (%)
RQF4 and Above	38,600	59.9	33,900	49.8	53.7	47.2
RQF3 and Above	51,200	79.4	47,300	69.4	71.9	67.6
RQF2 and Above	60,900	94.4	59,700	87.6	87.1	86.5
RQF1 and Above	61,700	95.7	60,800	89.2	88.2	88.9
Other Qualifications	!	!	3,100	4.6	3.5	4.3
No Qualifications	2,400	3.7	4,300	6.3	8.2	6.8

Earnings by Place of Residence

The median earnings in pounds for employees within East Lothian and the Scottish Borders, who are on adult’s rates of pay and whose pay is not affected by absence, is shown below in Table 46. Overall, both East Lothian and the Scottish Borders have a lower gross weekly pay than Scotland (£775.6) and Great Britain (£766.6), although the Scottish Border’s is lower at £707.7 compared to East Lothian’s at £737.2.

Table 46: Earnings by Place of Residence for East Lothian and Scottish Borders (2025)

Weekly/Hourly	Category	East Lothian (Pounds)	Scottish Borders (Pounds)	Scotland (Pounds)	Great Britain (Pounds)
Gross weekly	Full-Time Workers	737.2	707.7	775.6	766.6
Gross weekly	Male Full-Time Workers	769.6	732.9	812.8	818.7
Gross weekly	Female Full-Time Workers	708.3	679.6	726.1	710.8
Hourly excluding overtime	Full-Time Workers	18.4	17.66	20.23	19.74
Hourly excluding overtime	Male Full-Time Workers	18.86	16.62	20.5	20.39
Hourly excluding overtime	Female Full-Time Workers	17.9	19.03	19.76	18.94

Out of Work Benefits

The Claimant Count is a dataset that measures the number of people who are claiming benefits primarily for unemployment. This is measured through a composite of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) and those claiming Universal Credit who are required to find work in order to qualify for their benefits. Figure 72 and Figure 73 show the percentage of claimants for East Lothian and the Scottish Borders respectively, which show similar trends to the national level but at a lower level overall for most of the period covered. As shown in Table 47, as of February 2026, East Lothian has a slightly lower claimant count than the Scottish Borders, at 2.3% vs 2.9% respectively; however, both are significantly below the level for Scotland (at 3.1%) and Great Britain (4.0%).

Table 47: Claimant Count Aged 16+ for East Lothian and Scottish Borders (February 2026)

Age	East Lothian Level	East Lothian %	Scottish Borders Level	Scottish Borders %	Scotland (%)	Great Britain (%)
Aged 16+	1,640	2.3	1,965	2.9	3.1	4
Aged 16 to 17	25	0.9	15	0.6	0.6	0.2
Aged 18 to 24	325	4.2	375	5.2	4.4	5.7
Aged 18 to 21	180	3.7	225	5.2	4.8	6.2
Aged 25 to 49	940	2.8	1,055	3.6	3.6	4.4
Aged 50+	355	1.4	515	1.9	2	2.9

Overall, the available socio-economic evidence does not provide a clear or consistent indication that the opening of the station in 2023 has had a sizeable impact on the local economy or materially reduced levels of deprivation within the catchment area. While some indicators show changes over the study period, these trends are generally comparable with those observed in the counterfactual area and are likely influenced by wider economic conditions, structural changes (e.g. welfare system reforms), and localised factors unrelated to the scheme. Additionally, the relatively short period since the station’s opening means that any longer-term impacts may not yet be fully reflected in the data (particularly for GVA).

Planning & Land‑Use Indicators

Introduction

Residential and commercial planning data has been used to evaluate the economic impact of the new station at East Linton. The rail station has the potential to provide greater connectivity to employment and services for the area of East Linton which has the potential to attract greater development opportunities from a residential and commercial perspective. Planning applications throughout station development and delivery have been analysed to understand what degree of growth has been encountered locally.

Methodology

Planning data has been sourced from local authority planning portals and through direct engagement and collaboration with East Lothian Council planning team. Planning data has been analysed representing the full project lifecycle from concept through to delivery. East Lothian Council shared details of developments included within their Local Development Plan 2 (LDP2) which has not yet entered the public domain.

Business registrations have been sourced from East Lothian Council to demonstrate uptake in close proximity to the station site from 2021 through to present day.

Residential Development

Development that has taken place within East Linton or a 5km radius of East Linton has been analysed to interpret the economic impact of the station’s introduction. This data has been sourced from East Lothian Council via their planning team and Local Development Plan (LDP). At this stage, only sites that are likely to have a material impact on the economy such as businesses or sizeable housing developments have been considered. Smaller planning applications/completions for single dwellings or extensions have not been incorporated.

Table 48 outlines sizeable residential developments that are planned and/or have been delivered throughout the process of East Linton station delivery. In total, 113 houses have been delivered thus far. The LDP2 outlines the potential for an additional c.900 homes being developed in the area representing significant growth. However, as applications for these sites have not yet formally been submitted, their progress will be closely monitored during future monitoring and evaluation.

Table 48: Residential Planning Data

ID	Source	Description	Quantum	Status
1	Planning Portal	Pencraig Hill, East Linton housing development. 85 private market and 28 affordable)	113	Completion during 2024/25.
2	East Lothian Local Development Plan 2	Land for residential development at East Linton	250	Call for sites submission.
3	East Lothian Local Development Plan 2 Call for Sites	Land for residential development at East Linton	25-50	Call for sites submission.
4	East Lothian Local Development Plan 2 Call for Sites	Land for residential development at East Linton	120	Call for sites submission.
5	East Lothian Local Development Plan 2 Call for Sites	Land for residential development at East Linton	200	Call for sites submission.
6	East Lothian Local Development Plan 2 Call for Sites	Land for mixed community/ residential development at Tyninghame	10-20	Call for sites submission.
7	East Lothian Local Development Plan 2 Call for Sites	Land for residential development at Whitekirk	4	Call for sites submission.
8	East Lothian Local Development Plan 2 Call for Sites	Land for mixed use residential development at East Fortune	300	Call for sites submission.

Business Development

Business and commercial development data has similarly been sourced from East Lothian Council, in particular through engagement with their Economic Development team. Business registrations have been analysed across East Linton and surrounding areas to interpret whether the opening of the station has had a positive impact on economic growth locally. This has been cross compared with the East Linton business survey outputs to interpret whether the station has had any influence on business decisions to locate in East Linton throughout station development and delivery. New company registrations have been sourced from BankSearch data by East Lothian Council for the period from 2021 through to 2026 to align with various planning stages, delivery and opening of East Linton Rail Station. These are presented within Appendix C.

The station provides improved connectivity for East Linton; however, the registration of businesses locally cannot be directly attributed as a result of the station opening.

Supplementary Modal Data

Road Traffic Data

Available road traffic data has been sourced from Drakewell in the vicinity of East Linton Rail Station. Drakewell is a software and engineering company that provides traffic data management systems. Since 2020, they have supplied Transport Scotland with specialised monitoring platforms like C2-Traffic and C2-Gateway to handle live traffic data, quality checks, and reporting. This data is limited to the A1 corridor. Figure 74 shows that along this corridor, traffic growth is concentrated in the PM peak and interpeak periods, with increases of approximately 10–15% and around 10% respectively compared to 2019 levels. In contrast, the AM peak shows a slight decrease in traffic of around 2–5%.

Highway Journey Times Data

Highway journey time data is important in the context of comparison with the public transport. Data was obtained from TomTom database and covered two bi-directional routes East Linton to Edinburgh and East Linton to Berwick-upon-Tweed. Both routes use A1, and their endpoints are in the vicinity of the rail stations:

• Edinburgh – Waterloo Place
• Berwick-upon-Tweed – Marygate
• East Linton – near High St./Preston Rd. intersection

Data was obtained for the following:

• Time periods: AM peak (8-9), Inter-peak (12-13), PM peak (17-18),
• Month, years: October 2019, 2022, and 2025,
• Days: Tuesday-Thursday, Monday-Friday, weekends

The results shown for all time periods shown in Figures 75, 76, and 77 confirm that journey time remained on similar level. Most significant change occurred between East Linton and Edinburgh, where journey time increased slightly by couple minutes between 2019 and 2025.

Collision Data

Analysis of collision data for East Linton demonstrates that the opening of the new station has not been associated with any increase in collisions affecting either road users or non-motorised users. Recorded collision data remains consistent with pre-opening levels, and no upward trend is evident following the station’s introduction, with the most recent recorded collisions occurring in 2022.

Public Transport Data

Bus Patronage Data

East Lothian Buses were contacted to obtain relevant bus data to help demonstrate any changes in travel patterns and behaviours since the opening of East Linton Railway Station.

Through discussion with East Lothian Buses, it became apparent that there was an issue of non-comparability between pre and post scheme bus patronage data. In the post-scheme scenario, there have been notable service changes:

• Service X7 (Dunbar to Edinburgh) has undergone substantial frequency enhancements across all days since 2019, resulting in passenger growth of approximately 90% compared to 2019 and 30% compared to the previous year. These changes make like-for-like comparisons unreliable.
• Similarly, Service 120 (Dunbar to North Berwick) experienced a doubling of frequency following retendering in 2024. Historical data prior to acquisition is not readily available, and the service is expected to have minimal interaction with East Linton railway station as it serves a different travel market.
• Services 107 and N107 operate only a small number of journeys at the start and end of the day, with no overlap with rail operating hours, further limiting their relevance.

Overall, due to these factors, bus patronage data is not available in a form that would support robust or meaningful analysis.

Public Transport Journey Time Data

Google data has been used to assess public transport journey times from East Linton to key destinations including Edinburgh and Berwick-upon-Tweed.

The FBC for the station observed that long bus journey times from East Lothian to Edinburgh are compounded by a low frequency of journeys and short operating day. At baseline stage this prevented residents from using public transport to commute for employment or education or partake in evening leisure activities in Edinburgh.

Within the FBC it was forecast that the introduction of East Linton Railway Station would lead to significant journey time enhancements. At baseline stage, TRACC analysis revealed that a large area in proximity to East Linton has public transport travel times to Edinburgh of 100 minutes or greater, particularly in the more rural area to the north of East Linton and south, near Haddington. Bus journey times from East Linton to Edinburgh city centre were scheduled as 62 minutes off-peak using East Coast Buses service X7.

Figure 80 presents the current bus and rail journey times to Edinburgh and Berwick-upon-Tweed as of March 2026. These results have been captured over a period of five working days from 16/03/2026 to 20/03/2026. This demonstrates a substantial disparity between bus and rail journey times. For journeys from East Linton to Edinburgh, rail travel takes approximately 30 minutes compared to over one hour by bus. Similarly for journeys to Berwick-upon-Tweed, rail takes 45 minutes compared to in excess of 1hr 30 minutes by bus. This demonstrates that significant journey time savings have been achieved for residents seeking to travel from East Linton to key destinations by public transport by improving access to the rail network.

Active Travel Data

At this stage of the evaluation, limited evidence is available to support an assessment of active travel trends within the study area. No walking, wheeling or cycling count data has been identified in close proximity to East Linton Railway Station, restricting the ability to undertake a robust before-and-after comparison.

Attempts to supplement this through external sources were also unsuccessful, with Cycling Scotland unable to provide relevant datasets for the scheme area.

As a result, no meaningful conclusions can be drawn at this stage regarding changes in active travel behaviour associated with the station’s reopening; other than data collected as part of the primary surveys regarding station access modes and preferred modes for commuting and leisure travel. This represents a data gap that should be revisited if additional monitoring data may become available.