Value for money assessment
Purpose
This section provides a light‑touch Stage 1 Value for Money (VfM) assessment for East Linton Railway Station at an early observed (Post-Opening) stage. The assessment is intentionally proportionate and is designed to establish the direction of travel for VfM, rather than to replicate the full monetised economic appraisal completed at Full Business Case (FBC) stage.
This Stage 1 VfM assessment combines final outturn present value cost information with order‑of‑magnitude evidence on early operational performance, including observed passenger demand, service characteristics and journey times. It does not seek to provide a monetised reappraisal.
While this assessment focuses specifically on East Linton Railway Station, it should be noted that the economic appraisal undertaken at FBC stage considered Reston and East Linton as a combined scheme. The findings of the FBC therefore provide important context for interpreting the results presented here.
Economic Context
At Full Business Case (FBC) stage, the economic appraisal assessed Reston and East Linton as a single combined scheme. The analysis indicated that the stations would deliver local benefits, primarily through enhanced rail accessibility, reductions in generalised travel costs, and journey time savings for users. However, the introduction of additional stopping services on the East Coast Main Line (ECML) was also expected to affect longer‑distance services, leading to disbenefits for some long‑distance rail users, most notably through increases in journey times.
When considered together, these disbenefits, alongside the scheme’s capital and lifecycle costs, resulted in an overall negative Net Present Value (NPV). Importantly, even when cross‑border disbenefits were excluded from the analysis, the projected Present Value of Benefits remained substantially below the Present Value of Costs. On this basis, the scheme was assessed at FBC stage as providing poor value for money.
Against this background, the Stage 1 assessment focuses on whether the anticipated local benefits are beginning to emerge as forecast within the full business case, adopting a proportionate approach that tests key indicators rather than re‑estimating the full economic appraisal.
Methodology and Data Used
The assessment adopts a qualitative, component-based approach, focusing on a comparison between Predicted (Business Case) assumption and Observed (Post‑Opening) outcomes across the main VfM drivers.
Evidence has been drawn from a range of sources, including cost data, early operational performance, and indicators such as passenger demand, service patterns and journey times. These inputs are used to assess whether the expected benefits are beginning to emerge and how these align with the scheme’s underlying VfM drivers.
To support this assessment, a range of data sources and evidence have been used, as set out below.
Cost
Costs have been reviewed to determine whether scheme delivery has remained within the cost envelope assumed at FBC stage, and whether any divergence between forecast and outturn costs is likely to alter the overall VfM position.
- Predicted (FBC): Present Value cost assumptions for East Linton used in the economic appraisal, including the breakdown of capital costs and long‑term maintenance and operating costs.
- Observed (Post‑Opening): Outturn capital costs following scheme delivery, together with early indications of operating and maintenance costs.
This comparison provides an indication of whether cost overruns or savings are likely to materially strengthen or weaken VfM relative to the business case position.
Fares and Revenue
Fares influence user charges and revenue impacts within the economic framework. A proportionate review of fares and revenue has been undertaken, recognising that revenue is not a primary driver of VfM for this scheme and that the FBC includes limited detail on revenue assumptions, with values relatively small over the 60‑year appraisal period.
- Predicted (FBC): Implied average fare and revenue assumptions embedded within the economic analysis supporting the FBC.
- Observed (Post‑Opening): Where available, a comparison with current fare levels or ticket price structures for representative journeys, used as a sense‑check rather than as a full revenue re‑
This approach helps to assess whether revenues are broadly in line with expectations and whether any divergence is likely to materially affect the VfM position.
Demand
Passenger demand is a key driver of user benefits, including journey time savings and reductions in generalised travel costs, and is therefore central to the VfM assessment. Demand evidence has been used to assess both the accuracy of forecasts at FBC stage and whether the scale of realised benefits is proportionate to expectations.
- Predicted (FBC): Annual passenger demand forecasts for East Linton derived from the economic analysis supporting the FBC.
- Observed (Post‑Opening): Observed station usage based on the latest available Office of Rail and Road (ORR) entries and exits data.
- Abstraction (indicative): A high‑level review of whether observed trends at nearby stations appear consistent with abstraction effects or wider network recovery, noting that robust attribution is limited at Stage 1 without a longer time series and origin–destination data.
This evidence enables an early assessment of whether patronage levels are tracking Predicted (FBC) expectations and the extent to which benefit realisation may differ from the business case.
Proposal
A review of the delivered proposal has been undertaken to confirm whether the station has been delivered in line with the scheme design assumed in the FBC. This helps to establish whether any difference between forecast and observed outcomes is likely to be driven by performance factors (such as demand or service patterns), rather than by changes to the scheme itself.
- Predicted (FBC): Station specification and facilities described in the FBC (platforms, step‑free access, parking, passenger information systems, etc.).
- Observed (Post‑Opening): Evidence on delivered scheme characteristics (consistency with intended outputs and delivered parking provision)
Journey Times
Journey time savings were a key benefit driver in the Predicted (FBC) economic case, reflecting the perceived advantages of rail compared with other modes and existing travel patterns. At Stage 1, journey times have been reviewed to assess whether the level and direction of time savings assumed in the FBC appear to be emerging in practice.
- Predicted (FBC): Indicative journey times referenced in the FBC business case and supporting appraisal material (East Linton–Edinburgh).
- Observed (Post‑Opening): Typical journey time ranges based on current operator timetables.
This comparison provides an early indication of whether journey time benefits are being realised broadly as expected, or whether deviations may be influencing the VfM outcome.
Assessment
Table 60 summarises the Stage 1 Value for Money (VfM) indicator set for East Linton Railway Station and presents Predicted (FBC) benchmarks alongside Observed (Post‑Opening) evidence to support interpretation. Predicted (FBC) values reflect assumptions and forecasts used in the Full Business Case appraisal, while Observed (Post‑Opening) values draw on the best available evidence following scheme delivery, including observed station usage and current journey time characteristics.
The indicators focus on the principal drivers of VfM at this early Observed (Post‑Opening) stage, costs, demand, delivered scope and journey times. The table does not provide a monetised re‑appraisal; instead, it is used to assess the direction of travel for VfM and to identify whether outcomes are aligning with, or diverging from, business case expectations.
| Component | Indicator | Predicted (FBC) | Observed (Post‑Opening) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costs | Capital Costs | £15,030,000 (Capital Cost Estimate) | £16,674,000 (Outturn Cost) |
| Costs | Operating and Maintenance Costs | £145,500 per year. | £122,297 per year. |
| Benefits | Demand at Stations | 130,000-141,143 entries and exits per annum (forecast range). | 66,982 passenger entries and exits (latest available ORR data, April 2024-March 2025). Recent operator data suggests this could be higher with 115,625 journeys made to and from East Linton for the 2025 calendar year (composed of 92,042 for TransPennine and 23,583 for Scotrail). However, this is still below the original forecast. |
| Benefits | Abstracted Demand | Abstraction from Dunbar of 41,000-45,000 journeys per annum. | The growth in Dunbar demand has declined during the last two years of operation. However, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing recovery, it is difficult to determine whether abstraction has taken place or a slow recovery is still being realised. |
| Benefits | Proposal | Two platforms, shelters, lighting, seating, Customer Information System (CIS), long-line public address system (LLPA), CCTV, lifts and pedestrian bridge for platform-to-platform access. 125 car park spaces (15% electric charging points and 5% accessible spaces), CCTV, lighting, drop-off, bus replacement services area, and bicycle rack. | Final Network Rail design is consistent with FBC outputs, including an unstaffed station with two platforms and a lift/overbridge arrangement. 114 parking spaces have been provided, including dedicated blue badge bays and 18 electric vehicle charging points. |
| Benefits | Journey Time | 20-minute journey time to Edinburgh. | Average 20–24-minute journey time to Edinburgh. |
| Benefits | Revenue | The financial/economic appraisal within the FBC shows no net positive operating revenue. | Total revenue estimate for East Linton Railway Station of between £641,596 and £784,173. However, it cannot be estimated how this impacts the scheme value for money at this stage. |
Likely Impacts on Value for Money
Cost Impacts
Outturn capital costs for East Linton are higher than the Predicted (FBC) estimate (£16.674m compared with £15.03m). This increases the cost side of the VfM balance and therefore reduces NPV and weakens VfM, as higher investment costs require proportionately higher benefits to achieve the same overall value for money outcome. Even if demand and benefits were to meet Predicted (FBC) forecasts, the higher outturn capital cost would still result in a more negative NPV than anticipated at business case stage, all else being equal.
Operating and maintenance costs for East Linton are lower than the annual assumption cited in the FBC (approximately £122.3k compared with £145.5k per year). Lower ongoing costs reduce the lifecycle cost burden and therefore have a positive effect on NPV and VfM. However, the magnitude of this saving is relatively modest when set against both the capital cost increase and the scale of the demand shortfall, meaning the overall VfM effect is unlikely to be significant.
Benefit Impacts
Observed demand at East Linton is significantly lower than forecast prior to opening, with 66,982 entries and exits compared to an expected range of 130,000–141,143. This represents a shortfall of approximately 63,000–74,000 entries and exits, or around 65,200 below the forecast level referenced at this stage. Passenger demand is a key driver of benefits in the economic case, as user benefits, such as journey time savings and reductions in generalised cost, are directly linked to the number of trips made. Consequently, lower-than-forecast demand indicates proportionately reduced realised benefits and a weaker Net Present Value (NPV) and Value for Money (VfM) position than anticipated prior to opening.
Although passenger growth at Dunbar has slowed in recent years, there is limited evidence to suggest this is due to abstraction to East Linton station. Data from the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) indicates that demand remains in post-COVID recovery, with usage still around 12% below pre-pandemic levels.
The delivered East Linton station remains largely consistent with the design developed at the FBC stage. As such, the scale and nature of anticipated benefits are not expected to differ materially from those originally assessed. The scheme includes the key features assumed at business case stage, such as two platforms, step‑free access via lifts and an overbridge, passenger information systems, and parking and interchange provision, meaning the underlying benefit mechanisms remain valid.
While the number of parking spaces has reduced by 11 compared to earlier assumptions, this is expected to have only a minor negative effect on station demand and is not considered significant. Overall, VfM is therefore unlikely to be materially affected by design changes, with any divergence from the business case position more likely driven by demand and cost performance rather than scope variation.
Observed (Post‑Opening) evidence on journey times suggests broadly similar outcomes to those assumed Predicted (FBC). Journey times between East Linton and Edinburgh were forecast at around 20 minutes, while current timetables indicate a range of approximately 20–24 minutes. This represents an increase in journey time relative to assumptions and directionally this does not improve the poor NPV as presented within the FBC.
The financial/economic appraisal within the FBC showed no net positive operating revenue but did not provide an estimation of revenue. The Observed (Post-Opening) evidence suggests that the railway station has an estimated operating revenue of between £641,596 and £784,173 per year.
The overall VfM assessment for East Linton Railway Station consequently remains poor, with the conclusions of the original business case broadly unchanged in direction.
Economic Appraisal Omissions
Review of the Full Business Case indicates that a number of potential benefit streams were not fully captured or monetised within the core economic appraisal. While this is not unusual for rail station schemes, particularly in more rural contexts, it is important to acknowledge these omissions when considering overall value for money at Stage 1.
- The appraisal did not explicitly account for station facility benefits. New stations can deliver benefits associated with improved quality, comfort and accessibility when compared with alternative modes or older stations that may lack modern facilities or fail to meet current design and accessibility standards. East Linton station provides step‑free access, modern passenger information systems and improved waiting environments, which may enhance perceived journey quality beyond pure time savings. While these benefits are real, they are difficult to monetise and are generally small when compared with journey time benefits; as such, they were not included in the core appraisal.
- The FBC does not quantify active travel benefits associated with access to the station. A shift from private car use to rail can generate additional physical activity through walking and cycling at either the trip origin or destination. These first‑ and last‑mile effects can be appraised using tools such as the DfT’s Active Mode Appraisal Toolkit. In principle, inclusion of these benefits would increase the Present Value of Benefits. Given current demand levels at East Linton and the predominantly rural catchment, the overall scale of active mode benefits is expected to be modest at this stage; however, it is recognised that a substantial proportion of station users access the station by active modes.
- The FBC states that wider economic impacts (including agglomeration effects and land value uplift) were expected to be small or negligible, reflecting the low density of population, employment and businesses in the immediate catchment. While additional benefits of this type could materialise over the longer term, particularly if accessibility improvements support incremental development or land use change, there is currently limited evidence to justify their inclusion within a Stage 1 VfM assessment.
Overall, while these omitted benefit streams could marginally increase total benefits, they are unlikely to be sufficiently large to materially change the VfM conclusion, particularly in light of lower‑than‑forecast demand and higher‑than‑forecast capital costs.
Value for Money Conclusion
At Full Business Case stage, the combined East Linton and Reston scheme was assessed as offering poor value for money, driven by high capital costs relative to anticipated benefits and disbenefits to longer‑distance rail users arising from additional ECML stops.
The Stage 1 Observed (Post‑Opening) assessment for East Linton indicates that several of the key drivers underpinning this conclusion have been borne out in practice. Capital costs are higher than forecast, while observed passenger demand is substantially below Predicted (FBC) expectations at this stage. As demand is the principal determinant of user benefits, including journey time and generalised cost savings, the scale of realised benefits is likely to be lower than assumed in the business case.
The delivered station is broadly consistent with the scope and specification set out at FBC stage, meaning the underlying benefit mechanisms remain valid. However, journey times to Edinburgh are slightly longer than forecast and a small reduction in parking provision has been delivered, both of which are likely to have only a marginal effect on benefits.
Although operating and maintenance costs are lower than anticipated, this provides only a modest offset. It is insufficient to counteract the combined impact of higher capital costs and significantly lower‑than‑forecast demand.
Taken together, the available evidence suggests that benefits are unlikely to exceed costs at this early stage, and the Net Present Value for East Linton is therefore likely to remain negative at this early Observed (Post‑Opening) stage.
The overall VfM assessment for East Linton Railway Station consequently remains poor, with the conclusions of the original business case broadly unchanged in direction.