8. Progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2020 (Tables 5-9)

8. Progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2020 (Tables 5-9)

Target: 40% reduction in those killed by 2020

8.1 There were 186 people killed in 2011, 36 per cent below the 2004-08 baseline average level. Section 10.5 shows the relevant "indicative line" figure for 2011 (the reduction needed to achieve the 2020 target by means of a constant annual percentage reduction) is 18 per cent below the 2004-08 baseline average. Table 5 shows that the reduction required for people killed has exceeded this for cars.

Table 5: People killed by mode of transport, 1994 - 2011

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motor cycle	Car	Bus/ coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users
1994-98 ave	104	11	31	209	3	15	5	378
1994	111	5	24	197	9	14	3	363
1995	121	11	33	221	1	19	3	409
1996	106	15	29	185	3	14	5	357
1997	87	9	37	219	2	16	7	377
1998	96	13	33	223	1	13	6	385
1999	89	8	30	169	1	11	2	310
2000	72	12	40	182	1	15	4	326
2001	76	10	49	194	0	14	5	348
2002	73	8	46	154	0	21	2	304
2003	63	14	50	189	1	14	5	336
2004	76	7	42	167	3	12	1	308
2005	66	16	34	153	0	15	2	286
2006	61	10	58	175	0	8	2	314
2007	60	4	40	160	0	15	2	281
2008	60	9	34	153	1	8	5	270
2009	47	5	43	116	0	5	0	216
2010	47	7	35	105	1	8	5	208
2011 prov.	43	7	33	89	1	9	4	186
2004-08 average	65	9	42	162	1	12	2	292
2007-11 average	51	6	37	125	1	9	3	232
Numbers in 2011 implied by target	53	8	34	133	1	10	2	239
2011 % change:	*	*	*	-15%	*	*	*	-11%
on 2010 on 04-08 ave	-33%	*	*	-45%	*	*	*	-36%

*A percentage change is not shown if the denominator is50 or fewer.
1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.

Target: 55% reduction in those seriously injured by 2020

8.2 There were 1,873 serious injuries in 2011, 28 per cent below the 2004-08 baseline level. Two fifths of the 1,873 people who were reported as seriously injured in 2011 were car users. The 2011 figure for serious car casualties (756) was 40 per cent below the 2004-08 average. There were 512 seriously injured pedestrians reported in 2011, 22 per cent fewer than the 2004-08 average. Goods vehicle serious casualties were 23 per cent lower and motorcycle serious casualties were 21 per cent lower. Serious casualties were smaller for the remaining categories of road user (pedal cyclists: 16; bus/coach users: 9; and others: 13).

Table 6: People seriously injured by mode of transport, 1994 - 2011

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motor cycle	Car	Bus/ coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users
1994-98 ave	1,272	238	324	2,292	93	156	84	4,464
1994	1,536	311	329	2,607	141	197	87	5,208
1995	1,466	281	362	2,432	104	192	93	4,930
1996	1,173	201	271	2,108	93	123	72	4,041
1997	1,124	201	321	2,146	53	120	82	4,047
1998	1,060	197	338	2,167	75	150	85	4,072
1999	1,054	181	401	1,835	82	133	79	3,765
2000	925	164	435	1,796	79	106	63	3,568
2001	842	161	405	1,758	62	115	67	3,410
2002	820	144	410	1,628	59	120	48	3,229
2003	712	125	367	1,511	69	114	59	2,957
2004	674	121	353	1,414	63	83	58	2,766
2005	677	116	371	1,304	63	83	52	2,666
2006	688	131	352	1,258	57	91	58	2,635
2007	594	147	381	1,110	33	87	33	2,385
2008	645	155	396	1,203	59	65	52	2,575
2009	509	152	332	1,135	36	73	50	2,287
2010	457	138	319	902	52	60	40	1,968
2011 prov.	512	156	292	756	50	63	44	1,873
2004-08 average	656	134	371	1,258	55	82	51	2,605
2007-11 average	543	150	344	1,021	46	70	44	2,218
Numbers in 2011 implied by target	480	98	271	921	40	60	37	1,907
2011 % change:	12%	13%	-8%	-16%	-4%	5%	*	-5%
on 2010 on 04-08 ave	-22%	-16%	-21%	-40%	-9%	-23%	-13%	-28%

*A percentage change is not shown if the denominator is50 or fewer.
1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.

Target: 50% reduction in children killed by 2020

8.3 Five of the seven children who were killed in 2011 were in cars and the other two were pedestrians. Due to small numbers and year to year fluctuations this target is measured using a three year average. An average of 5 children a year were killed in the 2009-2011 period, 65 per cent below the 2004-2008 baseline.

Table 7: Children killed by mode of transport, 1994 - 2011

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motor cycle	Car	Bus/ coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users	3 year Average 3
1994-98 ave	17	3	0	8	1	0	0	30
1994	18	4	1	10	4	-	-	37
1995	16	3	-	11	-	-	-	30	31
1996	16	6	1	3	1	-	-	27	28
1997	15	1	-	9	-	1	-	26	28
1998	18	3	-	9	1	-	1	32	28
1999	17	1	-	6	-	-	1	25	26
2000	13	4	-	4	-	-	-	21	22
2001	14	4	-	2	-	-	-	20	18
2002	12	-	-	2	-	-	-	14	17
2003	5	2	-	10	-	-	-	17	14
2004	8	-	1	3	-	-	-	12	13
2005	5	4	-	1	-	-	1	11	16
2006	9	5	-	10	-	1	-	25	15
2007	4	1	-	4	-	-	-	9	18
2008	4	2	1	13	-	-	-	20	11
2009	1	1	-	3	-	-	-	5	10
2010	1	1	1	1	-	-	-	4	5
2011 prov.	2	-	-	5	-	-	-	7
2004-08 average	6	2	0	6	-	0	0	15
2007-11 average	2	1	0	5	-	-	-	9
2009-11 average									5
2009-11 avg % change on 04-08 ave									-65%

1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.
3. All averages rounded to whole percentages.

Target: 65% reduction in children seriously injured by 2020

8.4 There were 203 children seriously injured in 2011, 38 per cent below the 2004-08 baseline level. About two-thirds of the 203 children recorded as seriously injured in 2011 were pedestrians: 139, 36 per cent below the 2004-08 average. There were 34 child car seriously injured casualties recorded in 2011, a fall of 45 per cent from the 2004-08 average. The numbers of serious casualties for other modes of transport were much lower and the differences between the 2004 -08 average were also much smaller.

Table 8: Children seriously injured by mode of transport, 1994 - 2011

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motor cycle	Car	Bus/ coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users
1994-98 ave	546	96	5	136	10	8	10	812
1994	656	140	5	151	20	12	8	992
1995	622	110	7	142	9	13	17	920
1996	524	94	3	115	14	3	10	763
1997	490	77	4	129	3	6	10	719
1998	437	61	8	144	5	6	5	666
1999	413	68	5	102	2	2	8	600
2000	365	61	7	90	7	5	5	540
2001	339	52	7	108	5	6	7	524
2002	328	46	7	109	9	7	7	513
2003	268	46	5	83	5	2	6	415
2004	239	40	9	74	3	3	4	372
2005	239	26	11	68	6	2	5	357
2006	239	35	10	60	4	0	2	350
2007	181	28	4	51	1	1	3	269
2008	194	18	5	56	2	1	3	279
2009	155	26	2	62	2	1	5	253
2010	150	23	3	40	7	0	0	223
2011 prov.	139	23	2	34	4	0	1	203
2004-08 average	218	29	8	62	3	1	3	325
2007-11 average	164	24	3	49	3	1	2	245
Numbers in 2011 implied by target	149	20	5	42	2	1	2	221
2011 % change:	-7%	*	*	*	*	*	*	-9%
on 2010 on 04-08 ave	-36%	*	*	-45%	*	*	*	-38%

*A percentage change is not shown if the denominator is50 or fewer.
1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.

Target: 10% reduction in slight casualties by 2020 (per 100 million vehicle kilometres)

8.5 Table 9 shows that the 2010 slight casualty rate was 25.67 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres (As 2010 is the latest year for which there is an estimate of the total volume of traffic for Scotland as a whole). This was 21 per cent below the 2004-08 baseline average and exceeds the 2020 target.

8.6 Around two-thirds of slight casualties reported in 2011 were car users. The total number of car user slight casualties recorded in 2011 was 6,923, 25 per cent below the 2004-08 average. There were 1,502 pedestrian slight casualties reported, 30 per cent less than the 2004-08 average. Bus and coach user slight casualties totalled 451 in 2011, 35 per cent fewer than the 2004-08 average, the recorded number of pedal cyclist slight casualties (661) was 8 per cent below the baseline average, and reported goods vehicle user slight casualties (382) were 24 per cent fewer than the baseline average and recorded motorcyclist slight casualties (482 in 2011) were 24 per cent below the 2004-08 average.

Table 9: Slight casualties by mode of transport, 1994 - 2011

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motor cycle	Car	Bus/ coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users		Slight casualty rate
								numbers	mill veh-km	per 100 mill veh-km
1994-98 ave	3,009	1,034	580	10,859	912	583	501	17,478	37,653	46.42
1994	3,083	1,068	577	10,123	1,084	669	398	17,002	36,000	47.23
1995	3,048	1,031	576	10,321	802	579	498	16,855	36,737	45.88
1996	3,047	1,081	550	10,740	902	499	499	17,318	37,777	45.84
1997	2,944	1,062	590	11,669	886	525	529	18,205	38,581	47.19
1998	2,921	930	605	11,444	887	643	580	18,010	39,168	45.98
1999	2,620	828	594	10,901	841	609	534	16,927	39,770	42.56
2000	2,607	708	655	10,675	854	542	582	16,623	39,561	42.02
2001	2,487	745	724	10,342	761	595	499	16,153	40,065	40.32
2002	2,423	676	711	10,050	801	621	460	15,742	41,535	37.90
2003	2,215	663	697	10,055	822	537	474	15,463	42,038	36.78
2004	2,328	648	599	10,024	849	561	419	15,428	42,705	36.13
2005	2,308	649	677	9,532	794	495	478	14,933	42,718	34.96
2006	2,104	640	658	9,272	706	484	456	14,320	44,120	32.46
2007	2,049	563	640	8,793	590	506	431	13,572	44,666	30.39
2008	1,887	566	612	8,314	527	467	373	12,746	44,470	28.66
2009	1,643	647	646	8,329	437	423	416	12,541	44,219	28.36
2010	1,510	636	491	7,293	487	386	359	11,162	43,488	25.67
2011 prov.	1,502	661	482	6,923	451	382	303	10,704	..	..
2004-08 average	2,135	613	637	9,187	693	503	431	14,200		32.52
2007-11 average	1,718	615	574	7,930	498	433	376	12,145	..	..
Rate in 2010 implied by target										31.87
2011 % change:	-1%	4%	-2%	-5%	-7%	-1%	-16%	-4%	..	..
on 2010 on 04-08 ave	-30%	-8%	-24%	-25%	-35%	-24%	-30%	-25%	..	-21%3

1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.
3. Relates to 2010 data as 2011 traffic estimates not yet available.