Gap Identification
Introduction
This section provides a summary of the gaps that have been identified in the Strategic Review section of this report, including consideration of the available evidence-base that relates to the previously defined problems and opportunities. The evidence base is largely drawn from the South West Scotland Transport Study - Initial Appraisal: Case for Change (SWSTS), and the further work done within the second Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2). This review has identified that, for the most part, further assessment work for the A75 Springholm and Crocketford Improvements will require existing datasets to be updated, with the latest available datasets used to re-affirm that the problems and opportunities identified in the SWSTS remain valid. In addition, there are some areas where gaps have been identified due to limited data being previously available, or where any detailed assessment work was yet to be undertaken in support of the previous more strategic assessments.
The updates and analysis of data will be undertaken to support the traffic and economic assessments of the proposed scheme and inform the development of the Outline Business Case, Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB) Stage 1 Scheme Assessment and DMRB Stage 2 Scheme Assessment.
Gaps Identified
This section presents the gaps that have been identified, along with the proposed method by which to update these to inform the further assessment stages of the A75 Springholm and Crocketford Improvements.
Traffic Data
Previous Evidence
The SWSTS presents AADT Data for 2017, traffic volume associated with ferry usage for 2017, and Specialised Goods Vehicle Counts, and vehicle composition data taken from a 12hr Roadside interview undertaken in 2017.
The previous data was collected pre-COVID pandemic which had a notable impact on traffic flows across Scotland. Therefore, the previous data may not be representative of current conditions.
Methodology
Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) information from available count sites has already been collected (from Transport Scotland National Traffic Data System) to provide information regarding the background context presented in this Strategic Assessment and will be considered as part of the assessment of schemes moving forward.
Traffic flow data for 2025 will be required for the operational and economic assessment. Traffic surveys areas will therefore be procured. Surveys will request classified counts to establish the vehicle composition, including proportion of Heavy goods vehicles (HGVs).
At this stage, there is no compelling rationale to undertake further Specialised Goods Vehicle Counts. Should there be a significant change in the volume of HGVs identified in the 2025 traffic surveys in comparison to the previous 2017 counts, then this will be reconsidered.
Status
In progress - Traffic surveys commissioned to collect first set of data in June 2025. To be followed by a second data collection programme in September 2025.
Accident Data
Previous Evidence
The SWSTS and STPR2 present accident data analysis for the five-year period from 2012-2016, noting a higher propensity for KSI accidents in the area.
The previous assessment dates are now almost a decade old and has been updated to assess current trends in accidents on the A75 Trunk Road.
Methodology
Accident Data for 2012 to 2024 for the A75 Trunk Road has been provided by Transport Scotland. This will be used to update the accident analysis and seek to reaffirm or otherwise the accident related problems identified in the SWSTS. The updated accident analysis will include a review of the overall accident rate and comparison to national rates, the accident severity and comparison to national rates alongside the location and pattern of accidents.
Status
Data Provided by Transport Scotland.
Journey Time Data
Previous Evidence
Journey Time data used in the SWSTS was obtained from INRIX for 2017 and indicates the average journey times and speeds on the A75 Trunk Road, compared to other strategic routes across Scotland as well as similar routes to and from selected ports in England and Wales.
The previous data was collected pre-COVID pandemic which had a notable impact on traffic behaviour across Scotland. Therefore, the previous data may be not representative of current journey time conditions.
Methodology
Journey time information for 2024 has been collected using INRIX Roadway Analytics to inform the next development stages.
Status
Data Collected.
Traffic Modelling of Proposed Scheme
Previous Evidence
Previous modelling work in support of STPR2 considered “With Policy” and “Without Policy” scenarios, however specific modelling relative to the proposed scheme has not been undertaken. Modelling undertaken as part of the A77/A75 Transport Improvement Study only considered the “Without Policy” Scenario within Transport Model for Scotland (Note: this refers to scenarios developed for STPR2. The” With Policy” scenario captures policy ambitions leading to lower levels of motorised traffic demand, whereas the “Without Policy” scenario has no policy ambitions and reflects higher levels of motorised traffic demand.
Methodology
Traffic modelling is to be undertaken in support of the assessment of the proposed scheme. The scope of the modelling work is to be confirmed but will need to have consideration for alternative policy scenarios in order to present the possible range of benefits under different future scenarios relating to the achievement or otherwise of key policy targets.
Status
To be considered in upcoming assessment work.
Cost Benefit Analysis
Previous Evidence
Any previous reported monetised benefits cannot apply directly to this project as they are beyond consideration of the proposed scheme scope and assessment corridor. The modelling of the proposed scheme options will allow for an increased level of detail to be considered in support of DMRB Stage 2 and Outline Business Case work, compared to previous assessment stages.
Methodology
Linked to the traffic modelling described above, economic assessment is to be undertaken in support of the A75 Springholm and Crocketford Improvements to provide full detail of relevant benefits and costs. As such, the Net Present Value of Benefits (PVB) and Benefit-Cost Ratio of all route options will be able to be calculated and presented as part of the DMRB Stage 2 assessment and in the Outline Business Case.
Status
To be considered in upcoming assessment work.
Socio-economic context
Previous Evidence
Socio-economic context was provided In the SWSTS including populations, economic activity, travel to work, housing prices and skills sets. The data is largely drawn from 2011 Census information as well as information from the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) and the Office for National Statistics Nomis database for 2016.
Data from more up to date sources including 2022 Census information is available, and therefore data will be updated in order to capture the latest information on socio-economic trends, relevant to the proposed scheme.
Methodology
Census Data for 2022 will be collected and analysed. As a minimum, the following datasets are anticipated to be utilised as part of the A75 Springholm and Crocketford Improvements: population levels, car ownership, travel to work information.
BRES datasets will also be reviewed to consider economic activity and employment statistics. Data from the Scottish Index for Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) will be further analysed.
Status
In progress
No. and location of electric vehicle (EV) charging points (public)
Previous Evidence
The SWSTS utilised ChargePlace Scotland data to note the existing provision of public EV charging locations across the South West Scotland region.
The previous data was collected in 2018, and it was noted that the provision of EV charging points could have changed in the time period to 2025, therefore the data has been updated.
Methodology
ChargePlace Scotland data has been reviewed to confirm the current provision of public EV charging infrastructure.
It has been identified that further work relating to EV provision will align with STPR2 Recommendation 28 “Zero Emission Vehicles and Infrastructure” and this would be the most appropriate mechanism by which to progress this option at a national level.
Status
Data Collected.
Diversionary routes and road closure data
Previous Evidence
The SWSTS undertook a review of the diversionary routes for closures on the A75 Trunk Road albeit for selected closure locations. Information regarding the frequency of road closures was not presented.
The data has been updated in order to understand the frequency and nature of incidents on the A75 within the proposed scheme assessment corridor in order to calculate lost time due to incidents. support assessment of journey time variability impacts.
Methodology
Data on the type and frequency of incidents resulting in diversions and details of the recommended diversion routes themselves has been requested from Transport Scotland and Amey, as the trunk road operator for the South West unit.
Status
Data collected.
Provision of HGV Rest Areas
Previous Evidence
The SWSTS reported that there are limited formal HGV parking opportunities or rest areas.
Methodology
The number of laybys on the A75 has been considered for assessment in the background context for this scheme, however no formal rest areas were identified.
It has been identified that further work relating to EV provision will align with STPR2 Recommendation 36 “Strategy for improving rest and welfare facilities for hauliers” and that this would be the most appropriate mechanism by which to progress this option at a national level.
Status
Data Collected.
Active travel provision and usage
Previous Evidence
The SWSTS presents information for active travel facilities in the region from a variety of sources including detail of mapping and plans from Sustrans and Dumfries and Galloway Council.
The previous data was collected in 2018 and it was noted that active travel networks could have changed in the time period to 2025, therefore the data has been updated. Data on active travel demand will be essential to supporting the traffic modelling and assessment work going forward.
Methodology
A review of existing active travel provision has been considered for assessing the background context for the proposed scheme. This will also be used, if relevant, in any further assessment work undertaken.
There is limited data reported on active travel demand in the area. Traffic surveys procured as part of the A75 Springholm and Crocketford Improvements have included the provision of walking/wheeling, cycling and horse riding (WCH) surveys to ascertain the level of active travel at various points on routes throughout the study area, including within the two villages and on local core paths.
Status
In progress - Traffic surveys, including WCH, commissioned to collect first set of data in June 2025. To be followed by a second data collection programme in September 2025.
Public Transport Network
Previous Evidence
The SWSTS presented information on various public transport modes and their frequencies as of 2018, which at that point in time indicated a lack of overall public transport connectivity for rural areas in particular.
The previous data was collected in 2018 and it was noted that public transport services could have changed in the time period to 2025, therefore the data has been updated.
Methodology
Public transport information has been collated and will be updated as required, drawing on information and data already gathered and presented in the Background Context section of this Strategic Assessment. Podaris or TRACC may then be utilised to provide further analysis on accessibility by public transport to key services.
Status
Data collected.
Public Transport Integration
Previous Evidence
The SWSTS demonstrated through specific case studies that there is a lack of integration between public transport services, including between different bus services, bus and rail and bus and ferries.
The previous data was collected in 2018, and it was noted that public transport services could have changed in the time period to 2025, therefore the data has been updated.
Methodology
The current bus and ferry timetable information has been collected for this Strategic Assessment and will allow analysis of service integration to be updated.
The A75 Springholm and Crocketford Improvements will not be considering integration of bus and rail due to the lack of rail facilities (no line or station) in the study area.
Status
Data collected.
Other Statutory Assessments
Previous Evidence
Qualitative assessment has been provided in STPR2 Recommendation 40 Appraisal Summary Table to provide scoring against these statutory assessment criteria.
Methodology
The need for further statutory assessments (e.g. Equalities Impact Assessment, Child Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment, Island Communities Impact Assessment and Fairer Scotland Duty Assessment) will be determined as the proposed scheme progresses.
Status
To be considered at DMRB Stage 2.
Conclusion
This section has identified the analysis and data updates that are likely to be required to inform the next stages of assessment for the A75 Springholm and Crocketford Improvements. The data and subsequent assessment will be utilised to reaffirm the problems and opportunities relative to the A75 Trunk Road that have been identified in the previous studies and inform the scheme assessment workstreams.
Due to the strategic focus of STPR2 and its geographic scope covering the whole of Scotland, the transport appraisal for STPR2 was of a higher-level nature and undertaken at a regional level and for a range of multi-modal interventions that themselves comprised multiple (grouped) options. This is evident in a number of the STPR2 recommendations including Recommendation 40 – “Access to Stranraer and the ports at Cairnryan”. Recommendation 40 itself comprises a number of options including, but not limited to, improving junctions, enhancing overtaking opportunities with WS2+1 or climbing lanes at appropriate locations where slow-moving traffic leads to risky overtaking manoeuvres, and widening or realigning carriageways to alleviate ‘pinch points’ such as narrow structures or at stretches of older standard single carriageway. The recommendation goes on to identify the A75 realignment around Springholm and Crocketford as one example of a location of an improvement scheme.
As such although the strategic case for Recommendation 40 has been established through STPR2, it did not explicitly appraise individual options that are covered by Recommendation 40 in greater detail. As a result, whilst no gaps have been identified that are considered to be of major concern, it is recommended that consideration is given to undertaking a DMRB Stage 1 Scheme Assessment for the A75 Springholm and Crocketford Improvements. This would be specific to the proposed scheme and would fulfil the additional DMRB Stage 1 assessment requirements to bridge the progression from the strategic case (STPR2) through to the more detailed requirements of a DMRB Stage 2 Scheme Assessment.