Executive Summary

Executive Summary

The Transport Model for Scotland

To promote user (customer) engagement and needs To promote technical excellence and improvement

The Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS) is the Scottish Government / Transport Scotland’s strategic transport and land-use modelling tool. It has grown and developed from small beginnings into a truly national model. The two main aims of TMfS are:

Recognising the centrality of these objectives when TMfS was reviewed in 2006, Transport Scotland committed to design and implement a ‘Model Maintenance, Performance Evaluation and Customer Engagement’ programme. A part of this programme is the preparation of an Annual Report on performance.

This Annual Report aims to explain how we, the TMfS Team (the team of Transport Scotland staff supported by our appointed term consultants, the TMfS Steering Group, the data collection consultants and the auditor), have delivered these two main aims throughout 2008. It will review progress from a user engagement and technical perspective and endeavour to quantify the key benefits delivered throughout the year, exploring how TMfS contributes to the Scottish Government’s Purpose, as set out in the Government Economic Strategy.

TMfS Roles and Responsibilities

Client: Transport Scotland

Maintenance & Enhancement Consultant: MVA Consultancy

Sub-consultant to MVA : David Simmonds Consultancy

Auditor: SIAS Limited

Data Collection Contractors: Amey, Colin Buchanan, Count-On-Us

TMfS Steering Group: Scottish Government, Transport Scotland & Regional Transport Partnerships Key Stakeholders

TMfS User Group: All Key Stakeholders¹

The Purpose of the Scottish Government

The aims and objectives of TMfS have evolved throughout 2008. As well as promoting user engagement and technical excellence, it is important to demonstrate the role that TMfS plays in contributing towards the delivery of the Scottish Government’s Purpose, which is:

"To focus the Government and public services on creating a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth."

Each element of TMfS (i.e. project management, user engagement, data collection and model development) must be focused on engendering confidence in the capabilities of its modelling element (TMfS and TELMoS) and the ‘service’ offered by the TMfS team more generally, thus encouraging appropriate applications of TMfS. By encouraging applications through user engagement and technical excellence, a robust tool is bring provided through which schemes and policies that impact directly or indirectly on delivering the Government’s Purpose can be quantitatively and consistently assessed.

What has been done to promote user (customer) engagement?

The aim of the user engagement programme is to engender confidence in TMfS and encourage appropriate applications of the model from stakeholders. A concerted effort has been made by us to include such stakeholders in the development of TMfS. Key achievements include:

Establishing liaisons with potential new model users including the Scottish Government Health and Wellbeing Directorate, Scottish Water and the General Register Office for Scotland Ongoing consultations with the TMfS Steering Group and the wider TMfS User Group Close consultation with DfT on Scottish representation in UK models and on modelling practice generally Two meetings of the User Group, with a strong focus on the links between TMfS and planning policy, as well as other areas such as health and demographics A range of new TMfS documentation, including a new TMfS brochure, the Non-Technical Guide to TMfS and the Protocol Report for the Use of TMfS

The results emerging from this wide-ranging user engagement programme have been very encouraging, with an increasing number of applications emerging from a diverse range of policy areas.

Some facts from the past year:

All delegates at the fourth TMfS User Group Day found the event to be either ‘Very Useful’ or ‘Quite Useful’ Interest and understanding of TMfS has been growing, both from within the transport sector and from other policy areas The aggregated TMfS User Satisfaction scores are in the top quartile

The key user engagement aim going forward will be realising Transport Scotland’s obligations outlined in the development planning announcement by the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth, John Swinney, on 28 October 2008. The Common Statement is a wide-ranging package of improvements to make Scotland’s planning system "leaner and fitter". Transport Scotland is one of a number of key agencies who will be working in partnership, in ensuring that the planning system is geared towards increased sustainable economic growth. The TMfS team will work to ensure the pro-active use of TMfS to support the development planning and will continue to liaise with partner agencies and the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (COSLA).

What has been done to promote technical excellence and improvement?

Model Development

Significant strides were taken in terms of developing TMfS during 2008, including:

TMfS:05a, the first version of TMfS to cover all of mainland Scotland, and the Highland Model were completed and are now in use TMfS:07 has been completed and will form the new standard ‘Release Version’ of TMfS The Forth Model is being developed for use by Jacobs Consultancy and Arup on the Forth Replacement Crossing application of TMfS

Data Collection

An extensive Data Collection Contract was commissioned by Transport Scotland in late 2007 and has collected a wide range of new data that have fed into TMfS:07 and the Forth Model, including:

Inter-urban bus passenger origin-destination data Bus-based Park and Ride passenger origin-destination data Additional roadside interviews A stated preference survey designed to elicit the willingness of people to car share

In addition, while the data collection facility has been tendered with TMfS in mind, it can be used by other Transport Scotland Directorates, thus allowing for synergies and cost savings in data collection. For example, the appointed consultants have collected data for our Concessionary Fares Team.

TMfS Audit

The audit of TMfS-based modelling has been ongoing and key achievements during 2008 include the audit of TMfS:05a and TELMoS:05a. While the Audit Report for TMfS:05a and TELMoS:05a will be published in the near future, the attention of the auditor has now turned towards the review of TMfS:07 and TELMoS:07.

TMfS Model Applications

TMfS has continued to be heavily involved in transport applications of national strategic importance, such as the Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR) and Forth Replacement Crossing. In addition, there has been increasing use of the model to assess transport schemes and policies at the local, regional and national level. TMfS has also been supporting large-scale planning applications, with the model being used to assess the impacts of the Lothian Development Plan and Glasgow City Plan II. A further encouraging trend in year two has been the use of TMfS in ‘new’ areas of research, including the environment, health, accessibility and skills and education-related applications. This is very much welcomed.

Overall, the increasing volume and range of model applications demonstrates that TMfS has played an increasingly important role in the decision making process and has therefore contributed towards the Scottish Government’s Purpose by supporting effective government and encouraging efficient decision making based on robust analysis. The challenge going forward is to ensure that opportunities to assist in the delivery of the policy context are sought out — an important element of this will be delivering our responsibilities related to the development planning Common Statement.

What was it worth?

TMfS a valuable element of Scotland’s transport planning inventory providing a tool that can assist in prioritising investment in transport interventions and assess their impact on a range of areas, such as land-use, the economy and the environment. The modelling suite provides a consistent methodology through which strategically important schemes and policy interventions can be assessed. In addition, the revised Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) places emphasis on demonstrating how different investment options impact on the Government’s Purpose. Without TMfS, it would be extremely difficult to determine, with any level of confidence, the impact that relatively small schemes can have on Scotland’s transport networks and its overall performance. It would be practically impossible to accurately estimate the impact of large strategic policies or projects.

While the consistent and robust evidence base provided by TMfS is its key benefit, this report also attempts to value TMfS (both qualitatively and quantitatively) using four different techniques:

Considering what those who have used TMfS would have done had the model not been available to them A quantitative assessment of the value to applications of having an ‘off-the-shelf’ modelling suite and dataset available and a reflection of this cost as a proportion of the total project cost A hypothetical approach where the consequences of different levels of our investment in TMfS are analysed, in terms of their impact on model applications A review of the role of TMfS in facilitating the policy context and delivering the Scottish Government’s Purpose

All four methodologies suggest that TMfS offers value for money. Indeed, TMfS has made a telling contribution towards delivering the policy context and thus the Government’s Purpose, while it has also provided added value through being available ‘off-the-shelf’ for prospective users.

How has Transport Scotland managed TMfS?

Project Management

The quarterly TMfS Steering Group Meetings and monthly TMfS Client Progress Meetings have provided direction to TMfS and ensured that objectives have been met. A range of management-related reports, such as the Audit Reports for TMfS:05a and TELMoS:05a, have also been delivered. Close contact between the various management teams, as well as formally documenting all key information pertaining to the model, has provided a firm foundation on which to base TMfS.

What is the future?

It has become increasingly clear that the Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS) and its interactive land-use model, the Transport, Economic and Land-Use Model of Scotland (TELMoS), can be used to assist in devising policy in a number of different areas; planning, the environment, demographics, health, education and the utilities. However, there is a danger that the current "Transport Model for Scotland" name underplays the model’s integrated capabilities and the wider service on offer from us. In light of this, the TMfS team has attempted to refocus TMfS to be more inclusive of the wider policy context.

In short, it was agreed that TMfS, TELMoS, the data collection facility and the service offered should be brought under a new commission ‘umbrella’ called Land-Use and Transport Integration in Scotland (LATIS). There are two distinct elements within LATIS - the LATIS Modelling Capability, which includes TMfS and TELMoS and the LATIS Service, which includes the data collection facility, the user engagement programme and the ability to have TMfS run on a bureau basis. LATIS provides a more outward looking and inclusive focus and will encourage greater and more proactive use of all of the components of LATIS amongst a wider range of projects.

It is important that we, the TMfS team, continue to build upon the work undertaken in the previous year. LATIS will continue to deliver value through its ongoing support for model applications and through its ability to consistently assess a wide range of transport interventions.

In order to ensure that the work programme for 2009 is appropriate and focused on the Government’s Purpose, a number of actions have been identified to be taken forward, including:

Establishment of LATIS Development of relations with the LATIS User Group through User Group Days and ongoing customer engagement Supporting and promoting the culture change coming from the modernising of the planning agenda and the publication of the Common Statement Ongoing liaisons with the Scottish Government with regards to DfT carbon comparisons Continued consultation with key agencies (both Scotland and UK wide) and the Planning Authorities in the coordination of planning data collection, thus helping to realise our responsibilities outlined in the Common Statement Provision of assistance to the DfT in the re-evaluation of their modelling guidance Delivery of the Forth Model Discussions with all key stakeholders on the future course of model development Ongoing data collection Ongoing application support and identification of opportunities to assist in the assessment of strategic policy initiatives Audit of TMfS application(s) by the TTAA

Underpinning all of these objectives will be a continued focus on delivering the Scottish Government’s Purpose and the twin aims of LATIS, customer engagement and technical excellence.