7 TMfS Model Applications
7 TMfS Model Applications
Key Achievements
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7.1.1 One of the core ‘values’ of TMfS stems from its ability to provide model support to transport and planning infrastructure assessments and policy studies. TMfS provides robust quantitative evidence regarding the impact of a scheme or policy, which in turn, helps to determine the manner in which each particular intervention will contribute towards meeting the Scottish Government’s Purpose. This chapter will review applications of TMfS during 2008 and determine their contribution to the Government’s Purpose. In addition, it will provide a general assessment of the importance of TMfS in Scottish Transport and Planning Policy.
7.1.2 The performance, in terms of encouraging applications of TMfS during 2008, has been very positive. In total, there have been 22 separate applications of the model, including several major, nationally important studies. TMfS is also now being used in other policy areas, with an increasing number of planning and land-use related applications, along with a number of environmental-related applications.
Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR)
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7.2.1 The STPR is a review and prioritisation of the schemes and policies to be included in the Scottish Government’s long-term capital investment programme for the strategic transport network. The STPR represents a ‘critical path’ as it will have a significant bearing on transport investment in Scotland in the medium to long-term and will also form a key component of transport’s contribution towards meeting the Government’s Purpose.
7.2.2 In order to provide a model with national coverage for the STPR, the TMfS Term Consultants were instructed to prepare TMfS:05a, which is explained in more detail in Chapter 5. TMfS:05a and the Highland Model have been used extensively by the STPR team to test a wide range of potential transport infrastructure and policy interventions from across Scotland that is likely to cost in the order of £4bn. The key benefit of using TMfS is that it provides a consistent transport and land-use modelling framework for the whole of Scotland, thus ensuring that all potential schemes are treated equally.
7.2.3 The STPR team explained that the benefits associated with using TMfS were:
"Given the cost of the projects being appraised, it was important to make sure that the most robust evidence is used to ensure that the money is targeted towards the right interventions" "Having a calibrated and validated model available from the start of the Commission clearly saves time" "Development of a full multi-modal model cannot be justified on many projects, so having access to TMfS adds the ability to conduct more in-depth analysis for smaller projects" and "TMfS gives a useful database of current and future trends and conditions". |
7.2.4 The findings of the STPR are due to be published in late 2008 and it is likely that TMfS will be used to answer various questions about the outcomes of the review. Regardless of this however, TMfS is likely to continue to be used to support the STPR and its outcomes throughout 2009.
Replacement Forth Crossing
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7.2.5 As part of the STPR, TMfS was used to design and appraise the building of a replacement Forth Crossing. The decision to proceed with this scheme was taken in early 2008 and TMfS is being used by Jacobs Consultancy and Arup to assess travel patterns in the Forth Valley area and to assist in the design of the bridge. Initial work to support the new crossing has been undertaken in TMfS:05a.
7.2.6 A key element of this process will be the provision of a fully calibrated and validated Forth area regional model. This model will form the first of the new TMfS regional models and will contain a more detailed zoning system, additional network detail and additional calibration / validation data. The Forth Regional Model will be used to assess the expected use of the bridge in light of various economic and demographic scenarios and will also be used to explore options for the new crossing, such as the potential inclusion of High Occupancy Vehicle Lanes.
7.2.7 It is likely that TMfS will be used extensively to assist in the design and appraisal of the Replacement Forth Crossing during 2009. Similarly to the STPR, the model has been an invaluable tool in providing decision makers with the necessary information to make informed decisions on a major, in global terms, civil engineering project which will have a key role to play in the future economic performance of Scotland and make a significant contribution to the Government’s Purpose.
7.3 Other Transport Applications
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Perth Tay Crossing
7.3.1 TMfS was used by Halcrow for demand forecasting for a STAG Appraisal of the proposed transport improvements in and around Perth, including a new bridge over the Tay, north of Perth.
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South-Lanarkshire bus-based Park and Ride
7.3.2 South Lanarkshire Council commissioned Faber Maunsell to undertake a study of the potential for bus-based Park and Ride in South Lanarkshire area. The remit of the study was to consider existing and future travel patterns and demand, existing Park and Ride provision and potential gaps in this provision. TMfS was used to provide a measure of total potential demand that could be served by Park and Ride services for the model forecast years of 2012, 2017 and 2022.
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TACTRAN Park and Ride Study
7.3.3 The TACTRAN Regional Transport Partnership is developing a Park and Ride Strategy for the TACTRAN area, which will support the outcomes of the Regional Transport Strategy. The study includes an audit of existing parking supply and demand, a review of best practice and the forecasting of Park and Ride demand over the next 15 years. The aim of the study is to recommend proposed locations of new and / or expanded Park and Ride sites in the TACTRAN area, serving both regional centres (Dundee / Perth / Stirling) and strategic sites, which would reduce traffic on the trunk road network. TMfS was essentially used to provide an estimate of future demand for the proposed Park and Ride sites. A series of ‘Select Links’ were undertaken for 2005, 2012, 2017 and 2022 to provide origin-destination information for links adjacent to the proposed sites. This information was fed into the model, together with cost and distance skims, to estimate the number of current car trips that would be likely to shift to Park and Ride.
Edinburgh Park Rail Halt
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7.3.4 TMfS was used to undertake an initial analysis of the operational and demand implications of introducing an additional stop at Edinburgh Park on the Edinburgh Waverley to Glasgow Queen Street service. The key outputs from this application were a high-level assessment of potential demand and an estimate of possible economic benefits.
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Edinburgh South Orbital Bus
7.3.5 SESTRAN commissioned Halcrow to investigate a potential Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) option in the Edinburgh City Bypass corridor between Inverkeithing and Wallyford. Halcrow wished to use TMfS to assess potential patronage for the service and identify the optimum service level / routeing. TMfS was largely used to provide demand estimates to feed into a STAG Appraisal of the project.
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South Lanarkshire links to the East
7.3.6 Halcrow was commissioned by South Lanarkshire Council to prepare a STAG Appraisal of the transport options available between South Lanarkshire and Edinburgh / Livingston. Halcrow reviewed the model’s road and public transport movements in the study area and made the appropriate adjustments to the matrices and public transport services in order to make the model more sensitive to the interventions that are likely to be tested. A series of transport interventions were then developed, coded and tested for the model years 2012, 2017 and 2022, with the aim of identifying potential demand for such measures.
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Bishopton Inter-peak Model
7.3.7 TMfS was previously used to feed into an assessment of a potential new junction on the M8 at the former Royal Ordnance site at Bishopton in Renfrewshire. The main output of this application was the provision of AM and PM peak models for use in this assessment.
7.3.8 JMP recently requested the additional provision of an inter-peak model for the same area. The set of models will be used to feed into a Paramics model of the area for 2002 and 2011 (the initial forecast years).
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Kilbowie Park and Ride
7.3.9 MVA Consultancy used TMfS to assess the attractiveness (in terms of patronage and user benefits) of a potential Park and Ride site at Kilbowie in Clydebank. The study area was checked and the relevant updates to the model were made, most notably the inclusion of additional bus services. The potential demand for the site was then forecast using the TMfS Park and Ride Model, while the impact on the surrounding road network was also assessed. The data from the model was then fed into TUBA as part of an economic assessment of the proposed P&R facility.
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Clyde Waterbus
7.3.10 Glasgow City Council and its partners commissioned MVA Consultancy to evaluate the feasibility of a proposed riverbus public transport service operating on the River Clyde and downstream in the Firth of Clyde. The Clyde Waterbus services were added into TMfS and a number of sensitivity tests were undertaken to verify the suitability of the model. Road and public transport assignments were then undertaken to assess the impact of the proposed new services and the TMfS outputs were used to carry out a TUBA-based economic evaluation.
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Glasgow City Centre Paramics
7.3.11 SIAS was commissioned by Glasgow City Council to appraise various options for alternative traffic management within Glasgow City Centre. The forthcoming phase of this work involves testing options to be considered in future years. In particular, the impact on traffic demands in the City Centre, as a result of the completion of the M74 across the south side of Glasgow, is particularly important in understanding how the traffic management options will perform against the project objectives. Future year traffic flows and land-use assumptions were provided to SIAS for use in the Paramics Model, which was then used to provide a quantitative assessment of the impacts of various traffic management options.
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Vale Corridor Park and Ride
7.3.12 West Dunbartonshire Council commissioned MVA to undertake an assessment of the attractiveness of an enhanced Park and Ride facility at Alexandria rail station, in terms of usage and economic impact. The study was carried out in the same fashion as the Kilbowie Park and Ride Study, with an initial review of the model and a subsequent estimation of demand and a high level economic appraisal of the site.
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Hairmyres Park and Ride
7.3.13 Faber Maunsell was commissioned by South Lanarkshire Council to review the feasibility of extending Park and Ride provision at Hairmyres station. The study included a review of existing and future travel patterns to identify future requirements for Park and Ride at the site. TMfS was used to provide a measure of the total potential demand that could be served by Park and Ride services, with the data being extracted from the ‘Do Minimum’ scenario.
FETA Main Cable Replacement
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7.3.14 The 2007 Annual Report outlined the role of TMfS in modelling the impact of extensive roadworks on the Forth Road Bridge, which are related to the dehumidification and possible replacement of the Bridge’s main cable. Although this application remains live, there has been little TMfS-related modelling support for it this year.
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M8 Baillieston — Newhouse
7.3.15 The predecessor to TMfS, the Central Scotland Transport Model 3 (CSTM3), was used to test the impact of the proposed upgrade of the A8 between Baillieston and Newhouse to motorway standards. However, the forecasts had become slightly dated and were updated using TMfS:05. This study has required little TMfS modelling support this year.
7.3.16 This section has demonstrated the wide range of transport projects that have made use of TMfS. In many cases the projects are clearly strategic in nature and likely to have significant economic impacts at the regional and national level. These impacts would be difficult to identify and assess without TMfS, which has played an extremely important role in determining the value for money and viability of the projects.
7.3.17 TMfS however is not only used to analyse the impacts associated with transport interventions. It has played a key role in assessing the impacts of other types of projects, such as those with planning, environmental, social or education objectives. A selection of such projects is covered below in sections 7.5 to 7.8.
7.4 Planning and Land-Use applications
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Glasgow City Plan II
7.4.1 The Glasgow City Plan (GCP) sets ‘a context within which development can deliver the employment, housing and educational environment that will sustain Glasgow as a competitive city’.8 The GCP was revised and republished as the GCP II, which included ‘Community Growth Areas’. Development on the scale of that proposed in GCP II will, however, have an impact on the strategic transport network and all such plans must be ratified before they are implemented. TMfS was used to assess the impact of the Plan, most notably the 'Community Regeneration Areas’, on the strategic transport network.
Lothian Development Plan
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7.4.2 The Lothian Development Plan provides a blueprint for development in the Lothian area over the medium to long-term. As with other planning applications, TMfS was used to assess the impact of the realisation of the full plan on the strategic transport network.
7.5 Environmental applications
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Scottish Climate Change Programme
7.5.1 On 21 June 2007, the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth, John Swinney, announced that that the Scottish Government would consult on a Climate Change Bill to set a mandatory target of cutting emissions by 80% by 2050. The Scottish Climate Change Programme helps identify emission levels, trends and potential abatement policies. TMfS was used to undertake a preliminary analysis of the reductions in CO2 emissions from road transport required to meet the 80% reduction. The key question posed by this application is: given the accepted growth projections in (private) car kilometres, how much would average car CO2 emissions need to fall by in order to reduce their emissions by the 80% expected level? ENEVAL was used to assess forecast car-based emissions up until 2022 and extrapolated the pattern up to 2050.
Edinburgh Air Quality
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7.5.2 The City of Edinburgh Council Environment Department has identified the need for a model to predict the cumulative air quality impacts of future land-use development across the City. The scope of the application was to use TMfS and its ENEVAL utility to predict the impact which different types of major land-use developments in different parts of the City will have on traffic emissions, particularly in areas where air pollution is already known to be a problem and / or is forecast to approach or exceed relevant EU Air Quality standards and / or National Air Quality Targets. This application was progressed through the development of a utility which can add user-defined developments in specific zones — this includes user-defined assumptions regarding the number of households, car ownership levels, employment proportions, jobs, retail floorspace etc. The resulting TMfS input files were then fed through the main TMfS transport model to predict the resulting impacts on traffic flows across the City. The TMfS environmental modelling tool, ENEVAL was then used to forecast the corresponding changes in future year vehicle emissions. These results were combined in a spreadsheet tool which enables the Environment Department to predict the cumulative impacts of development in their Air Quality Management areas and other air quality ‘hotspots’ across the City.
7.6 Skills and education-related applications
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Geography of Poor Skills
7.6.1 Scottish Enterprise / Futureskills Scotland were provided with a matrix of distances between each zone in TMfS as part of a wider study into the geography of poor skills and access to work in Scotland.
7.7 Accessibility-related applications
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TACTRAN Accession™ Model update
7.7.1 MVA Consultancy was commissioned to update the TACTRAN Accession™ Model. 2005 Planning data from TELMoS, specifically employment location and quantity (i.e. number of jobs), was used to develop indicators of access to health, education, employment and shopping and retail centres.
7.8 TMfS Model Applications and the Scottish Government’s Purpose
7.8.1 As intimated at the outset of this chapter, TMfS has been a key tool in assisting the transport sector to meet the Government’s Purpose. The easiest way to demonstrate this is to assess the contribution of TMfS to each of the Government’s ‘Strategic Objectives’.
Wealthier and Fairer
7.8.2 TMfS has been used to model numerous emerging transport schemes and policies. Such analysis has typically been used to feed into different aspects of STAG Appraisals, which are used to assess the contribution potential transport interventions can make towards delivering the Government’s Purpose. The two key examples of how TMfS contributes to this objective are the STPR and Replacement Forth Crossing, although there are many other examples, such as the M8 Baillieston — Newhouse and Perth Tay Crossing.
Smarter
7.8.3 TMfS has both indirectly and directly contributed towards this objective during 2008. The assessment of schemes designed to provide more reliable journey times and improved accessibility has contributed towards improving access to education, deepening the labour pool and providing access to more skilled jobs. Indeed, the inclusion of ‘Wider Economic Benefits’ in TMfS:05a and TMfS:07 explicitly recognises this benefit of improved transport links. It can be argued that each of the above infrastructure schemes make an indirect contribution towards delivering a ‘Smarter’ Scotland.
7.8.4 In direct terms, TMfS was involved in the ‘Geography of Poor Skills’ application, which was designed to establish the geography of poor skills and access to work in Scotland. While the TMfS contribution to this application was minimal, it nonetheless provided an important step in assisting on education / skills-related projects and forms an important starting point for the year ahead.
Healthier
7.8.5 TMfS has also made a contribution towards delivering a ‘Healthier’ Scotland. Examples include the Edinburgh Air Quality work and the assessment of schemes designed to encourage mode shift away from the private car, such as the various Park and Ride studies undertaken. This objective also links with that of a ‘Smarter’ Scotland, in that skill levels and educational attainment are often linked to the health of the population — i.e. areas with low levels of attainment and poorly developed skills generally also suffer from low wages, poor housing and other social problems that negatively impact on health. Following a recent meeting with the Scottish Government Health and Wellbeing Directorate, we hope that a ‘trial’ application of TMfS concerning access to major hospitals will be run in the near future. Thereafter, we hope that TMfS can be used more widely in the health sector.
Safer and Stronger
7.8.6 TMfS has contributed to this objective in a similar manner to others, by encouraging greater accessibility and mode shift from the private car to public transport. Examples of such links include the STPR, accessibility-related studies and the various rail, bus and Park and Ride studies that TMfS has been involved in. Most notably, however, TMfS has assumed an important role in planning policy, which is central to the location and design of safe, accessible and environmentally friendly developments. Examples of such studies include the Glasgow City Plan II and Lothian Development Plan.
Greener
7.8.7 TMfS is assuming an increasingly central role in understanding how transport can contribute towards meeting the Government’s environmental targets. The most notable evidence of this from 2008 was the involvement of TMfS in the Scottish Climate Change Programme. TMfS has also contributed towards environmental assessments undertaken in scheme appraisals and more local air quality assessments, such as that undertaken for the City of Edinburgh Council.
7.8.8 It can be seen from the above that TMfS has played a central and expanding role in the contribution of transport policy towards meeting the Government’s objectives.
7.9.1 TMfS has made a significant and successful contribution to a wide range of local, regional and national transport schemes. In addition, TMfS is assuming a more central role in planning policy and is diversifying into other areas such as the environment, health and education.
7.9.2 The cumulative effect of the support structures and these model applications is more fully explored in Chapter 9, where we have assessed the value delivered by the model in year two. In addition, Chapter 8 reflects on user feedback.