10 The Year Ahead — Next Steps
10 The Year Ahead — Next Steps
10.1 Overview
10.1.1 This Annual Report has outlined the wide range of developments in TMfS in the last year. A key theme to emerge has been the widening scope of TMfS — TMfS has been involved in an increasing number and range of applications, while it has also assumed a more central role in the delivery of the policy context. Notable achievements include the use of the model in headline planning and environmental applications as well the collection of data for other Directorates of Transport Scotland and the Scottish Government.
10.1.2 The platform underlying this trend of widening use is the ability of TMfS to act as a consistent, Scotland-wide appraisal tool. It allows for a like-for-like comparison of a range of potential transport interventions, creating a framework in which policymakers can assess which interventions are the most complementary to the Government’s Purpose. In the absence of TMfS, it is unlikely that such interventions could be so readily assessed and compared. This would make it nearly impossible to establish which schemes and policies contribute the most to the Government’s Purpose and offer value for public money.
10.1.3 However, there is a danger that the current branding of the "Transport Model for Scotland" underplays the integrated capabilities of the service by restricting attention to its transport component only. Consequently, we have worked to refocus the service and the underlying modelling suite of TMfS and TELMoS. This exercise involved consultation with various parties including the TMfS Steering Group and the Term Consultant. The aim was to develop and launch a new brand name which better reflects the modelling capabilities and inherent services. Presently, there are four distinct elements to the service provided:
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10.1.4 It was considered appropriate that the transport and land-use modelling suite should continue to be called the Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS) and the Transport, Economic and Land-Use Model of Scotland (TELMoS) respectively. It was equally clear that a new title was required to act as an umbrella under which both the modelling and ‘service’ aspects of TMfS could sit.
10.1.5 The new name chosen to represent the entire service is:
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10.1.6 What is currently thought of as TMfS, in the widest sense, will henceforth be known as LATIS, inherent in which are the LATIS Modelling Capability (TMfS and TELMoS) and the LATIS Service. The LATIS Service covers data collection and the running of the model on a bureau basis as well as consultations, guidance, advice and training. This is highlighted in Figure 10.1:
Figure 10.1 Land-Use and Transport Interaction in Scotland (LATIS)
10.1.7 Figure 10.1 illustrates the structure of LATIS. A key element of LATIS is the modelling suite, which consists of TMfS and its interactive land-use model TELMoS. In essence, TMfS and TELMoS are built upon the data which is input into them. The data collection facility and Local Authority planning data form the other substantive input elements of LATIS. The capability and availability of the LATIS inputs are communicated to the wider world through the user engagement programme, which uses consultation and other liaisons with users as a means of encouraging applications of the of the LATIS Modelling Capability and the provision of model support and advice from the LATIS Service. As explained in Chapter 2, the generation of model applications is one of the key drivers behind adding value to LATIS and delivering the Purpose of the Scottish Government.
10.1.8 The new name provides a more explicit recognition of the role that LATIS can play in linking transport with other policy areas, without losing the identity of TMfS and TELMoS. In addition, it is focused on ensuring that the LATIS Service is proactive in realising and acting upon new opportunities, as well as being recognised as a valuable tool amongst policymakers from all areas. We will proactively work to identify opportunities where the Service can support other policy interests. This new name has become the standard on all documentation and other public literature since the LATIS launch on 6 November 2008 at the TMfS User Group meeting.
10.1.9 The remainder of this chapter considers how the LATIS Service can build upon the progress made during the last year by considering more specific next steps for the year ahead.
Overview
10.2.1 It is important to develop a clear programme of known actions for the year ahead. While there has been a major focus on the development of TMfS:07 and the Forth Model, there have been notable advances in terms of application support and enhancing key stakeholder’s liaisons. It is important that the pace of the user engagement programme is stepped up in 2009, while efforts must also be focused on increasing the range and depth of model applications.
10.2.2 In the interests of consistency, the ‘Next Steps’ will be presented as per the previous published headings:
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10.2.3 It should be noted from the outset that this list is not a definitive programme for the year ahead — new objectives will arise and other opportunities in which the LATIS Service can take an active role may present themselves. As a minimum, the report will include discussion on the following outlined objectives.
User Engagement
10.2.4 As alluded to throughout this report, we will proactively seek to involve LATIS in the delivery of our responsibilities outlined in the development planning Common Statement. Meeting these responsibilities is an important element in realising a planning system geared towards sustainable economic growth and will be a key focus of LATIS.
10.2.5 Table 10.1 outlines the key actions that will be taken forward as part of LATIS User Engagement:
Table 10.1 LATIS User Engagement Objectives
Objective |
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Establishment of the LATIS ‘brand’ Development of relations with key agencies and stakeholders and ongoing customer engagement, with a particular focus on promoting the culture change coming from the modernisation of the planning agenda, in keeping with the Common Statement Ongoing liaisons with the colleagues engaged in the planning process to assist in light of the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth John Swinney’s announcement on 28 October 2008 Ongoing liaisons with the Scottish Government with regards to DfT carbon comparisons. In particular, we will contribute towards the Scottish Government’s work on climate change, as well as our initiatives in this area In line with the Common Statement, we will continue to work with Scottish Water, the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) and the planning authorities to agree a common methodology for collecting and collating planning data Provision of assistance to the DfT in the re-evaluation of their modelling guidance Continued engagement through LATIS User Group Days Identify and act upon opportunities to assist in the assessment of policy initiatives to further advance the Government’s Purpose, including the strengthening of key networking opportunities both internally and externally |
10.2.6 It can be seen from Table 10.1 that a number of essential actions must be addressed during the next year. A key aim is to establish the LATIS brand amongst the User Group. This name change is designed to more fully elaborate on the wide range of areas in which LATIS can support the delivery of the policy context and the Government’s Purpose. We must make the User Group aware of the strengths of the LATIS Modelling Capability and how it can apply to specific policy areas. The success of such efforts would be manifested in an increasing range of applications of the modelling capability, with a more marked involvement in areas such as planning and environmental policy.
10.2.7 Realising this LATIS brand awareness will involve ongoing and extended customer engagement, as well as close liaison with key agencies. There are a number of tasks involved in this objective including:
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10.2.8 In terms of specific user engagement actions going forward, an important step is to support the culture change in planning policy outlined in Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth, John Swinney’s announcement on 28 October 2008. We will work with other key agencies to focus the planning process on delivering sustainable economic growth.
10.2.9 The LATIS Modelling Capability may be used to contribute towards an assessment of Scotland’s carbon emissions (at least from a transport perspective) as part of a wider UK carbon comparison exercise being undertaken by the Department for Transport. We will also be available to support the climate change agenda currently being pursued by the Scottish Government will provide specific expertise as and when required.
10.2.10 A dialogue has already been opened with Scottish Water, SEPA and the planning authorities to discuss coordinating requests for Local Authority planning data. All parties, including the Local Authorities, believe this to be a beneficial development and we are responsible for continuing to develop and implement this relationship over the coming year.
10.2.11 The Department for Transport is currently reviewing its modelling guidance and it is important that Transport Scotland contribute to this discussion by bringing Scotland’s experience to the table. In addition, efforts will continue to ensure that the Scotland is reasonably represented in wider UK transport models.
10.2.12 Bi-annual meetings of the LATIS User Group will be continued to be held. There will also be an additional LATIS User Group Day in the spring of 2009, while consideration is also being given to potential regional forums and more ‘technical’ events.
10.2.13 In all, there are clearly a number of user engagement tasks to be taken forward. The focus is on widening the scope of LATIS and ensuring that its modelling capability is used in suitable applications across a range of policy areas. In general terms, the customer engagement programme will be used to develop both internal and external networking opportunities and identify and act upon further opportunities to support the Scottish Ministers in the delivery of the policy context and the Government’s Purpose.
Model Development
10.2.14 Table 10.2 identifies actions in terms of model developments that require to be delivered:
Table 10.2 LATIS Model Development Objectives
Objective |
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Delivery of the Forth Model Discussions with all key stakeholders on the future course of model development. Inherent in this is the need to explore options for helping to create an evidence base for supporting the Scottish Government’s targets, both in the transport field and in other areas |
10.2.15 With TMfS:07 having being delivered in the second half of 2008, the immediate focus in year three will be the delivery of the Forth Regional Model. The Forth Regional Model will be designed to facilitate analysis of the Forth Replacement Crossing and is expected to be complete in November 2008.
10.2.16 The principal objective in the longer term is to identify options for future model development e.g. future regional models, development of TMfS:09 etc. Clearly, it is critical that this process includes full discussion with key stakeholders regarding their future strategic modelling requirements, as such an approach minimises the risk of adding functionality ‘because we can’. Options for developing an evidence base that will support and underpin the targets of the Scottish Government will be explored. We will also initiate such discussions throughout the coming year at both LATIS User Group Days and through more focused meetings with key stakeholders.
Data collection
10.2.17 Table 10.3 outlines actions in terms of data collection that require to be delivered:
Table 10.3 LATIS Data Collection Objective
Description |
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Ongoing data collection that supports model development needs |
10.2.18 Data Collection will be focused on what is needed to meet the likely future requirements of the LATIS Modelling Capability, with a focus on regional models and the next launch of the national modelling suite. In addition, we will meet the needs of specific work streams, such as emissions-related work. Lastly, continued support will be available for other policy areas such as concessionary fares.
Model Support
10.2.19 Table 10.4 scopes out actions related to model support:
Table 10.4 LATIS Model Support Objectives
Description |
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Ongoing application support Support for all reasonable ongoing applications Analytical support for the conclusions of the STPR Support for the Scottish Government in carbon comparisons with the DfT and for the Scottish Government in supporting the climate change agenda Audit of the LATIS Modelling Capability application(s) by the Auditor |
10.2.20 An ongoing task during the next year will be to support applications of the LATIS Modelling Capability that are currently live. This is an essential task, as there are a number of strategically important live applications, including the Forth Replacement Crossing.
10.2.21 We will also provide support for all reasonable model applications. Indeed, we will actively encourage suitable applications throughout the year three and promote wider interaction between LATIS and numerous policy areas.
10.2.22 Much of the analytical work undertaken as part of the Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR) has involved the LATIS Modelling Capability. The results of the STPR are due to be published in late 2008 and there are likely to be various questions posed about these outcomes. We will be on hand to provide analytical support for issues arising from these findings.
10.2.23 The LATIS Modelling Capability will also be used to facilitate the Scottish Government’s input into the DfT’s wider carbon comparisons.
10.2.24 The LATIS model development, calibration and validation processes are all extensively audited by the Traffic and Transportation Auditor and Adviser (TTAA) in order to ensure that the modelling capability is robust and fit for purpose. However, an area of increasing interest that we will pursue is a potential audit of a model application.