Executive Summary
Scotland’s Climate Change Plan update (CCPu) sets out an ambitious emissions reduction pathway for transport in order to meet the legally binding targets committed to in the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 – to achieve net zero emissions by 2045 and a 75% reduction by 2030.
Work undertaken to quantify the extent of the challenge has estimated that meeting the reductions targets will require rapid decarbonisation of passenger and freight vehicle stock, a reduction in vehicle kilometres through modal shift, and reduced demand, through trip shortening and trip avoidance. Reducing car kilometres travelled is therefore a key policy commitment of the Scottish Government, with a target of a 20 per cent reduction from 2019 levels by 2030. The second Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2) sets the course of Scotland’s transport future for the next twenty years and identifies a range of recommendations which, together, will enable the required shift to a transport system which meets the net zero target. However, over the timescales required, the recommendations of STPR2 will not create a shift large enough without some form of downward pressure on car use. This downward pressure is commonly referred to as Travel Demand Management (TDM) and includes a range of measures including development planning and road space reallocation as well as familiar fiscal measures such as congestion charging.
The current dominance of car transport does not represent the most equitable solution to the transport and social issues Scotland faces today. 60% of the lowest income households and 46% of those with a long-term health problem or disability do not have access to a car, while young people, older people, women and certain ethnic minority groups are less likely to have access to a car. Meanwhile, people living in poor neighbourhoods also experience the greatest impact of traffic in terms of air pollution and road traffic accidents, in particular, more children and young people from deprived areas.
This research explores ways in which TDM measures could be applied equitably, in order to meet the requirements of the CCPu emissions reduction pathway, fulfilling part of the route map to achieving 20 percent reduction in car kilometres by 2030. The options presented here are intended to demonstrate the range of measures that could feasibly induce the required reduction in car kilometres in an equitable way. It provides an estimate of the costs and the potential revenue implications and assess the overall impact of each option against established transport appraisal methodology.
Initially, a literature review was undertaken to establish the full range of practical options, drawing from UK and international examples as well as relevant research studies. From this review, a long list of options was created to encompass all reasonable options for TDM in Scotland. This long list was sifted against the primary research objective – to reduce car kilometres by 20% by 2030 – as well as established transport assessment criteria, deliverability considerations and policy alignment. The resulting shortlist of options then underwent a preliminary appraisal to further focus in on the most appropriate and effective options. The unintended consequences and possible equality impacts of each option were then carefully considered in order to refine each one and package it alongside allowances, exemptions, and complementary measures. As a result, all options assume exemptions for blue badge holders and discounted rates for those on low incomes and living in remote rural areas, with less opportunity to change their travel behaviour.
By this process, this research has arrived at a focussed range of options for TDM which all employ an element of road pricing – charging drivers to travel by car, either within certain areas or over distances. The two broad options assessed are:
- Local: a daily charge for driving in all large urban areas in the Glasgow conurbation, Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen and implemented by local authorities under existing legislation
- National: a distance charge per kilometre driven on any road and implemented by the Scottish Government.
The indicated effectiveness of each TDM option is outlined in the Table below:
Charge type |
Charge |
2030 Car km reduction |
2030 Revenue |
Car emissions reduction |
Equity impacts and mitigation |
Area |
£15 per day, (£7.50 discounted) |
-25% |
£1,300m |
-26% |
Greater impacts on those living within the charged area, who are potentially more able to substitute |
£10 per day, (£5 discounted) |
-21% |
£1,100m |
-22% |
||
£5 per day, (£2.50 discounted) |
-14% |
£800m |
-15% |
||
Distance |
10p per km, (5p (discounted) |
-26% |
£2,300m |
-27% |
Lower charges mitigate the impact on remote rural communities who find it most difficult to switch modes |
6.5p per km (3.3p discounted) |
-17% |
£1,700m |
-17% |
||
3p per km (1.5p discounted) |
-8% |
£875m |
-8% |
The assessment of these options shows that both distance and area-based charging could be designed to achieve the 20% reduction in car kilometres, and at a cost to individual drivers which is not unreasonable.
The estimated impact of area-based charging would be dependent on all large urban areas in Glasgow conurbation, Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen implementing charges simultaneously. However, at present, it is unlikely that all large urban areas would be in a position to implement area-based charging in the timeframe necessary to achieve the required reduction.
Further exploration and feasibility analysis will be required in order to take forward any of the options presented. However, a broad assessment of deliverability has been made which ensures that a technological and practical route to delivery exists. The delivery of any TDM option will require the use of technology which could include ANPR cameras – currently widely adopted for a variety of traffic enforcement applications – or Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) to record driver mileage.
Local area charges could be technically easier and quicker to introduce, as local authorities already have to powers to implement these charges, while a national distance based charge is more complex requiring further policy development.
The key recommendation from this work is that a Framework for Implementation is created to ensure local and national government can operate together, in an efficient and equitable way, when introducing TDM schemes at either national or local level.
This report concludes that TDM has the potential to achieve the Scottish Government’s target of reducing car kilometres by pricing transport use in a fairer way, in line with Scotland’s geographic and social needs. TDM has the potential to raise significant levels of revenue which can be reinvested in enhancing public and active transport, enabling Scotland to meet its net-zero targets.