Introduction
The Scottish Government commissioned a review into the options for extending concessionary travel, across all public transport modes, to those under the age of 26. The review was commissioned in response to the affordability challenges young people face, identified through the development of the second National Transport Strategy (NTS2).
During the review process the Scottish Government made a commitment to introduce free bus travel for under 19s, which has since been widened to under 22s. Outputs from the review at this stage were used to inform the development of the under 22s initiative, and Transport Scotland continues to work with key delivery partners – including Young Scot, the Improvement Service and the National Entitlement Card Programme Office – to deliver this free bus scheme, which is due to come into operation on 31 January 2022.
The review has been undertaken during a period of time where there have been considerable changes to the policy landscape within which concessionary travel rests, as a result of COVID-19, EU Exit, and the Scottish Election. To take this into account, the review has been undertaken iteratively. It is also important to note that the costs within this review are subject to significant uncertainty as the long-term impacts of the pandemic on public transport demand are not yet known.
Policy Context
We understand that transport is an essential requirement in enabling people to realise human rights, such as the right to education, the right to work, the right to take part in cultural and public life, the right to an adequate standard of living and the right to the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health.
A report into Transport and Travel in Scotland (2018) found that those on low incomes are more likely to use buses, while those on higher incomes are most likely to drive. 41% of people living in a household with less income than £10,000 use a bus at least once per week, compared to 15% of people living in a household with an annual income greater than £50,000. In addition, 41% of households with less than £10,000 have access to one or more cars. This rises to 96% for those with an annual household income of £50,000 or above.
The National Transport Strategy (published February 2020) sets out our vision for transport in Scotland over the next 20 years:
We will have a sustainable, inclusive, safe and accessible transport system, helping deliver a healthier, fairer and more prosperous Scotland for communities, businesses and visitors.
The Strategy recognises that those on low incomes are excluded from maintaining social connections or accessing employment or training opportunities due to the affordability and availability of transport options. Public transport is a necessity to those on low incomes, yet, in many areas of high social deprivation public transport options can be limited.
A 2018 Scottish Rural Action (SRA) report exploring transport costs in rural areas found that transport fares in rural Scotland impacted 48% of young people from accessing employment, and 33% of young people from accessing education and training; this is partly due to the longer distances required to travel to access opportunities, resulting in higher costs and/or a greater number of interchanges or modes of travel.
However, the challenges on the availability of public transport are also ones faced by those living in more urban areas, where transport between low-income neighbourhoods and employment opportunities may be poor. This can be the case for those working outwith the “traditional” 9-5 working pattern, where public transport services might not be available.
NTS2 also recognises that the challenges of transport affordability and availability can be more acute for our young people. The Scottish Youth Parliament Campaign All Aboard found that one of the main reasons young people use the bus is affordability, stating that it provides a ‘cheap mode of transport’. A number of young people who were involved in this work suggested the cost of public transport should be reduced for young people, and for those in low income families. The report also found that a large number of young people advised they were relying on cars or walking rather than using public transport for a variety of reasons. Some live in rural areas where there is no public transport, or transport services do not run at the times at which they need to use them.
Since the review was initially commissioned, for many young people, the impact of COVID-19 on their education, work, and social lives has been considerable and for some nothing short of devastating. Evidence suggests that COVID-19 has exacerbated many pre-existing inequalities and has had a significant impact on living standards for many people across Scotland. Whilst the true impacts of the pandemic will not become clear for many years, initial projections undertaken by the Resolution Foundation indicate that child poverty levels could rise markedly as a result. We also know that the pandemic has had a disproportionately negative impact on young people (aged 16-24). Rises in unemployment and falls in employment levels have been larger for 16-24 year olds than for any other age group, with young people more likely to be working in restriction-impacted sectors such as retail, leisure, and entertainment. Analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests that workers under 25 are two and a half times more likely than other age groups to work in a sector that is now shut down. The economic impacts of the pandemic will affect young people differently depending on pre-existing inequalities.
Scottish Government research into COVID-19 and equality in Scotland found that the pandemic is impacting young people’s income and ability to afford housing and other essentials, such as public transport, and concluded that without significant intervention, a long COVID-19 recovery risks worsening economic generational inequality.
The continued impact of the pandemic and outlook for young people remains uncertain; however, through delivery of NTS2, the Scottish Government is committed to ensuring our transport system will continue to meet the changing needs of our young people, particularly by ensuring they have affordable and available transport services that enable them to access education, training, and employment.
It is understood that in order to ensure our transport system plays its part in delivering a fully inclusive society policy interventions are need to address both the challenges of affordability and availability of transport. Any policy interventions will require additional budget in order to be implemented, at a time when there are significant pressures on budgets and exacerbated financial constraints. In light of the unprecedented financial and capacity impacts of COVID-19 on the transport sector and the continued uncertainty regarding the future of the pandemic on society, further work will be required to examine the future of public transport to fully assess the sustainability of any policy initiatives.
Furthermore, in December 2020, the Scottish Government published the update to the 2018-2023 Climate Change Plan. The Scottish Government remain committed to ending Scotland’s contribution to climate change by 2045 in a just and fair way. Within the plan, we set out ambitious actions which are aligned with NTS2. There is a key focus on technological advances, but equally on measures to encourage modal-shift and significant societal changes.
Scope of the Review
The review looks to identify the options available for extending concessionary travel across all public transport modes to those under the age of 26. Analysis has been undertaken of existing concessionary fares and discounts already available, exploring what is working well with a view to identifying options that build on best practice, as well as determining where further interventions are required.
This analysis has been supported by assessment of national and international comparators, including fare-free public travel as well as concessionary travel schemes.
Consideration has also been given to the rapidly changing policy landscape surrounding travel concessions, setting the context for the opportunities available but also the challenges around their implementation. A cost and benefits appraisal has also been undertaken to refine assessment.
Approach to the Review
The appraisal undertaken as part of this review considers a number of options that look at extending concessionary travel to young people under 26. The appraisal method used is directly based on the Policy Appraisal Framework (PAF) set out in the Scottish Transport Apprisal Guidance (STAG), which is a form a Multi-Criteria Analysis. However, it should be noted that this review is not intended to provide the business case for initiation of any of the interventions.
To ensure the review reflects the circumstance and events which continue to shape day-to-day life, we have sought to include engagement and consultation findings within the review. These have been gathered from a number of sources, including Scottish Youth Parliament and Young Scot, and span discussions both before and during COVID-19.
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