Airdrie-Bathgate Rail Link Improvement Stage 1 Outcome Evaluation Report
3 Operation of the AIRDRIE to BATHGATE SERVICE
3.1 This chapter outlines the operation of the Airdrie to Bathgate service before and after the rail link improvements, in terms of the following:
- Services Using the Route;
- Patronage and Revenue;
- Travel Patterns;
- Journey Times; and
- Train Loadings.
3.2 Details of the post opening services using the Airdrie to Bathgate line are contained in the May 2013 timetable contained in Appendix A.
3.3 Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2 show the annual patronage (boarders and alighters) and revenue respectively from the LENNON (Latest Earnings Networked Nationally Overnight) database for stations between High Street and Edinburgh Park. The revenue data has been converted to 2013/14 prices to remove the impact of inflation and show real increases over time.
Figure 3.1: Annual Patronage by Station (December 2009 – December 2013)
Source:
LENNON
Note: Drumgelloch,
Caldercruix and Armadale stations didn't open until March 2011. The Drumgelloch data for Dec 09 – Dec 10 has been excluded from the chart as the existing Drumgelloch station closed in May 2010 and train services were replaced by bus services until the new Drumgelloch station opened in March 2011.
Figure 3.2: Annual Revenue (£, 2013/14 prices) by Station (December 2009 – December 2013)
Source:
LENNON
Note: Drumgelloch,
Caldercruix and Armadale stations didn't open until March 2011. Drumgelloch data for Dec 09 – Dec 10 has been excluded from the chart as the existing Drumgelloch station closed in May 2010 and train services were replaced by bus services until the new Drumgelloch station opened in March 2011.
3.4 As can be seen in Figure 3.1, the patronage at the majority of existing stations appear to have increased between the year prior to the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link opening in December 2010 and December 2013. This equates to a total increase in patronage of 31% over the same period. This can be compared with growth of 14% across all UK regional franchise operators between the years ending 2009-10 Q3 and 2013-14 Q3[2].
3.5 Many of the largest patronage increases have been at stations between Edinburgh and Bathgate where the frequency of services has doubled from two to four trains per hour (tph). Patronage increased by 75%, 69% and 68% respectively at Edinburgh Park, Livingston North and Bathgate in the first three years since the Rail Link opened, with the largest increase at Uphall where patronage increased by 129%.
3.6 The significant increase at Drumgelloch may be a result of a new car park which was constructed as part of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link improvement. It is possible that the impact of this new car park can also be seen in the initial fall in patronage at Airdrie after opening, as passengers switched to using Drumgelloch. The car parks at Uphall and Coatbridge Sunnyside have also been extended which may have had a positive impact on patronage at these stations.
3.7 The growth in patronage on the western section of the line towards Glasgow has been particularly strong with growth of 54%, 35% and 24% at High Street, Carntyne and Bellgrove respectively in the first three years of operation since December 2010. Patronage at existing stations between High Street and Airdrie increased by 32% overall in the first three years.
3.8 Patronage fell at Blairhill (-12%) and Coatdyke (-3%) over the same period but demand at these stations may have been impacted by the new car park at Coatbridge Sunnyside (referred to as Coatbridge SS in Figure 3.1) where patronage increased by 32%.
3.9 Figure 3.2 shows that the highest yields on the line between Glasgow and Edinburgh are at Bathgate, Livingston North, Edinburgh Park and Airdrie.
3.10 Figure 3.2 also shows that the changes in revenue have shown similar trends to the changes in patronage. The percentage increases are generally larger than patronage as average ticket prices have increased by more than inflation, which explains why patronage at Coatdyke and Blairhill has declined over the last three years but revenue has increased over the same time period. The largest increases in revenue have been on the eastern section of the line between Bathgate and Edinburgh Park where revenue increased by at least 83% at each of these stations. This may be due, in part, to the higher rail fares charged for travel between Bathgate and Edinburgh on the eastern section of the route when compared to the Airdrie to Glasgow section.
3.11 Average yield is calculated by dividing total revenue by total patronage to give the average price of a one-way journey. The average yield by station for the year prior to the opening of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link and the three years following opening are shown in Table 3.1.
| Station | Time Period | % Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 09 – Dec 10 | Dec 10 – Dec 11 | Dec 11 – Dec 12 | Dec 12 – Dec 13 | ||
| High Street | 1.66 | 1.78 | 1.89 | 1.93 | 16% |
| Bellgrove | 1.49 | 1.67 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 13% |
| Carntyne | 1.63 | 1.66 | 1.71 | 1.75 | 8% |
| Shettleston | 1.48 | 1.61 | 1.65 | 1.67 | 13% |
| Garrowhill | 1.40 | 1.49 | 1.53 | 1.62 | 15% |
| Easterhouse | 1.59 | 1.70 | 1.82 | 1.93 | 21% |
| Blairhill | 1.60 | 1.68 | 1.70 | 1.87 | 17% |
| Coatbridge Sunnyside | 2.02 | 2.26 | 2.41 | 2.48 | 22% |
| Coatdyke | 2.09 | 2.23 | 2.32 | 2.31 | 11% |
| Airdrie | 2.06 | 2.31 | 2.39 | 2.46 | 19% |
| Drumgelloch† | Not Applicable | 2.78 | 2.83 | 2.91 | 4% |
| Caldercruix† | Not Applicable | 3.14 | 3.06 | 3.11 | -1% |
| Blackridge | Not Applicable | 4.14 | 4.27 | 4.41 | 7% |
| Armadale† | Not Applicable | 4.38 | 4.29 | 4.23 | -3% |
| Bathgate | 3.30 | 3.54 | 3.60 | 3.59 | 9% |
| Livingston North | 3.23 | 3.48 | 3.60 | 3.63 | 12% |
| Uphall | 2.98 | 3.30 | 3.39 | 3.40 | 14% |
| Edinburgh Park | 2.80 | 3.08 | 3.14 | 3.15 | 13% |
Source:
LENNON
Note:
† Drumgelloch, Caldercruix and Armadale stations didn't open until March 2011.
Drumgelloch data for Dec 09 – Dec 10 has been excluded from the table as the existing Drumgelloch station closed in May 2010 and train services were replaced by bus services until the new Drumgelloch station opened in March 2011.
3.12 The data presented in Table 3.1 indicates that the highest average yields on the line between Glasgow and Edinburgh are at Blackridge, Armadale, Livingston North, Bathgate and Uphall. Average yield is given by the fares people pay and is affected by the mix of ticket types purchased (e.g. anytime, advanced, off-peak etc) and any discounts received (e.g. for children, railcard holders etc).
Direction of Passenger Travel
3.13 Passenger count data collected in November 2013 has been analysed to provide an indication of the direction of passenger travel. The average number of boarders on weekdays by direction for each station between Glasgow and Edinburgh via Airdrie/Bathgate is shown in Figure 3.3.
Figure 3.3: Post Opening – Average Weekday Number of Boarders by Direction
Source: Scotrail Passenger Rail Counts 2013
3.14 The data presented in Figure 3.3 indicates that the majority of passengers boarding at stations to the west of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link travel in the westbound direction towards Glasgow during weekdays, and passengers from stations to the east of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link are more likely to travel in the eastbound direction towards Edinburgh. This suggests that the line may be predominantly used by local commuters travelling to Glasgow and Edinburgh.
3.15 This is confirmed by passenger surveys undertaken on board services operating between Edinburgh and Helensburgh in March 2014, which included information on the Origin-Destination (O-D) of passenger trips. The results of the passenger surveys indicate that of the over 4,000 passengers who were interviewed, approximately 69% made a journey wholly within the western section of the line between Helensburgh and Blackridge and approximately 20% made a journey within the section between Armadale and Edinburgh.
3.16 Analysis of the O-D surveys suggests that a limited number of passengers are using the new line to travel between the west of Glasgow City Centre and Edinburgh. Of the 1,287 interviewees who boarded services west of Glasgow City Centre, only 13 alighted at stations between Bathgate and Haymarket and 20 at Edinburgh Waverley. This pattern is mirrored in the opposite direction with only 38 of the 1,036 interviewees who boarded services at stations between Bathgate and Edinburgh Waverley alighting at stations west of Glasgow City Centre.
Trip Distribution (Percentage – From Popular Stations)
3.17 Pre and post opening data from LENNON has been examined to understand the impact of the scheme on trip distributions. Trip destinations for key stations of relevance were assigned to one of the following 16 zones:
- North-west of Glasgow City Centre;
- Glasgow City Centre;
- West and south of Glasgow City Centre;
- East of Glasgow City Centre;
- Bellgrove to Easterhouse;
- Blairhill to Drumgelloch;
- Caldercruix, Blackridge & Armadale;
- Falkirk and Cumbernauld lines;
- Shotts line;
- Springburn line;
- Bathgate to Edinburgh Park;
- North of Falkirk and Edinburgh;
- Edinburgh;
- East of Edinburgh Waverley;
- Hamilton and Motherwell lines; and
- England.
3.18 Figure 3.4a presents the trip destinations by zone for Period 8 in 2010/11 before the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link was opened and Figure 3.4b presents trip destinations for Period 8 in 2013/14 following the opening of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link. It should be noted that the data includes all trip destinations from each station and not only those of journeys which use the Glasgow to Edinburgh via Airdrie line. As a result the pattern of destinations originating from Edinburgh Park and Haymarket may not represent the distribution of destinations of passengers who board Airdrie line services.
Figure 3.4a: % Trip Destinations by Station for 2010/11 Period 8
Source: LENNON
Figure 3.4b: % Trip Destinations by Station for 2013/14 Period 8
Source: LENNON
3.19 The pre-opening data presented in Figure 3.4a shows that the majority of journeys to the west of Airdrie are to Glasgow, and to the east of Bathgate are to Edinburgh before the construction of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link.
3.20 The post-opening data presented in Figure 3.4b shows that the scheme has had an impact on the distribution of trip destinations of all stations on the line. Stations on the eastern section have been most affected with trips to Glasgow City Centre from Bathgate, Livingston North and Uphall rising from just above zero in 2010/11 Period 8 to between 11% and 13% in 2013/14 Period 8. The greater extent of the change in trip destinations from stations on the eastern part of the line may also help to explain the larger growth in average yields from the stations shown in Table 3.1 as the proportion of passengers travelling to destinations further away with higher fares has increased.
3.21 The trip destinations of the three new stations (Caldercruix, Blackridge and Armadale) varied, with the proportion of trips to Edinburgh increasing the further east the station is located.
3.22 The proportion of trips from Garrowhill and Easterhouse to stations between Blairhill and Drumgelloch fell significantly between 2010/11 and 2013/14. This change is due to scholar season tickets which used to be issued for travel to and from St. Ambrose High School which is located in Blairhill but were withdrawn following the relocation of the school as they were no longer needed.
3.23 Further analysis of trip destinations from Airdrie was undertaken to understand the impact of the Airdrie to Bathgate link on trip distribution. The absolute number of trip destinations between Period 8 in 2010/11 and 2013/14 is shown in Figure 3.5.
Figure 3.5: Absolute Number of Trip Destinations for Airdrie in Period 8 for 2010/11 and 2013/14
3.24 Figure 3.5 shows that there has been a decrease in the number of trips originating from Airdrie in Period 8 between 2010/11 and 2013/14. This is likely to be explained by the closure of Drumgelloch station in May 2010 before its relocation which will have caused many passengers who previously used Drumgelloch to switch to Airdrie inflating the passenger numbers there in Period 8 in 2010/11.
3.25 The data also shows that there has been a significant increase in the number of trips to destinations in the east. The number of trips to Edinburgh increased six fold between Period 8 in 2010/11 and 2013/14 and the number of trips to stations between Bathgate and Edinburgh Park increased from only 2 to 1,016 over the same time period.
Trip Distribution (Absolute Numbers – From Bathgate)
3.26 One of the stations with the largest change in the distribution of trip destinations was Bathgate and the absolute change in the number of trip destinations between Period 8 in 2010/11 and 2013/14 is shown in Figure 3.6.
Figure 3.6: Absolute Number of Trip Destinations from Bathgate in Period 8 for 2010/11 and 2013/14
Source: LENNON
3.27 The data presented in Figure 3.6 shows that the opening of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link has had a significant impact on both the number and distribution of trips originating from Bathgate. The total number of trips from Bathgate in Period 8 increased by 79% from 35,747 in 2010/11 Period 8 to 64,134 in 2013/14 Period 8. Trips to Edinburgh Waverley and Haymarket accounted for 47% of this increase with 32% to Glasgow City Centre and 8% to Edinburgh Park.
3.28 The number of individual trip destinations from Bathgate also rose sharply from 99 in 2010/11 Period 8 to 204 in 2013/14 Period 8 largely explained by the new opportunities provided for travelling to Glasgow. There was also an increase in the number of trip destinations to the east and the number of journeys to some destinations reached by interchanging in Edinburgh increased significantly such as to Stirling (367%), Newcastle (131%) and Aberdeen (37%).
3.29 The increase in trips to destinations to the east is likely to be explained by the doubling of train frequencies on the Bathgate to Edinburgh section of the line which will have reduced interchange times for connecting services at Haymarket and Edinburgh Waverley, making longer distance trips more viable. Passengers making these longer trips may also help to explain some of the increases in average yields from stations on the eastern section of the line shown in Table 3.1.
3.30 The Bathgate data was analysed over time to see how quickly the change in trip distribution took place. Figure 3.7 presents the number of trips originating from Bathgate by destination from 2010/11 to 2013/14.
Figure 3.7: Number of Trips Originating from Bathgate by Destination 2010/11 to 2013/14
Source: LENNON
3.31 The data presented in Figure 3.7 shows that the opening of the new rail link had a significant and immediate impact on the distribution of trips originating from Bathgate. Although the absolute number of trips to Edinburgh increased over the period, as a proportion, the total trips fell from around 90% before the rail link opened to less than 75% within the first year of the rail link opening.
3.32 The largest increase in the proportion of Bathgate trip destinations was to Glasgow city centre which increased from a few hundred trips per period before the link opened to average more than 8,000 trips per period in 2013/14. The data also showed increases to destinations which previously had very few trips originating from Bathgate such as the north, west and south of Glasgow city centre.
3.33 The journey time information[3] presented in the Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis Report (MVA, 2006) showed journey times for all types of public transport trips before the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link was opened. The analysis was repeated as part of this evaluation for a selection of rail trips using the Airdrie-Bathgate line and the comparison of journey times is shown in Tables 3.2a and 3.2b.
| Travel Times | Duration | Changes |
|---|---|---|
| Pre Opening - 2006 Weekday AM Peak[4] | ||
| 07:15 - 08:50 | 1 hr 35 mins | 1 |
| 07:20 - 08:56 | 1 hr 36 mins | 2 |
| Post Opening - 2014 Weekday AM Peak[5] | ||
| 07:43 - 08:37 | 54 mins | 0 |
| 07:58 - 08:44 | 46 mins | 0 |
| Travel Times | Duration | Changes |
|---|---|---|
| Pre Opening - 2006 Weekday AM Peak[6] | ||
| 06:56 - 08:31 | 1 hr 35 mins | 2 |
| 07:19 - 08:48 | 1 hr 29 mins | 2 |
| Post Opening - 2014 Weekday AM Peak[7] | ||
| 07:55 - 08:38 | 43 mins | 0 |
| 08:15 - 08:47 | 32 mins | 0 |
3.34 The comparison of pre and post opening journey times presented in Table 3.3a and 3.3b indicate that the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link has significantly reduced journey times from Bathgate to Glasgow and from Airdrie to Edinburgh, with fewer changes of mode required as a direct impact of the direct rail service enabled by the new section of the line.
3.35 Journey times have also been analysed for key trips which were possible by rail before the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link opened. The key trips are as follows:
- Westbound towards Glasgow in the AM peak and inter peak periods;
- Eastbound from Glasgow in the PM peak;
- Eastbound to Edinburgh in the AM peak and inter peak periods; and
- Westbound from Edinburgh in the PM peak.
3.36 Table 3.3a presents journey times in the AM peak between selected stations and Glasgow Queen Street Low Level in the December 2009 and December 2013 timetables.
Table 3.3a: Pre & Post Opening Journey Times to Glasgow Queen St Low Level (AM Peak 07:00-10:00)
Sources:
National Rail Timetable (Sunday 13th December 2009 – Saturday 22nd May 2010) & Electronic National Rail Timetable (Sunday 8th December 2013 – Saturday 17th May 2014)
Note:
† The 07:14, 09:14 & 09:44 arrivals at Glasgow Queen St Lower Level do not call at Blairhill.
Note:
the morning peak as defined for the current ScotRail franchise is 07:30-09:30 into Glasgow.
3.37 The comparison of pre and post opening journey times presented in Table 3.3a indicates that average journey times for local commuter trips into Glasgow have increased except for passengers who use the all station stopping services starting at Airdrie.
3.38 The increase in journey times for some services may be due to changes in train paths in order to integrate the timetable with Argyle line services.
3.39 Table 3.3b presents journey times from stations to the east of Glasgow arriving at Glasgow Queen Street Low Level in the inter-peak.
Table 3.3b: Pre & Post Opening Journey Times to Glasgow Queen St Low Level (Inter Peak 10:00-16:00)
Sources: National Rail Timetable (Sunday 13th December 2009 – Saturday 22nd May 2010) & Electronic National Rail Timetable (Sunday 8th December 2013 – Saturday 17th May 2014)
Note: the end of the morning peak, which implies the start of the inter peak period, as defined for the current ScotRail franchise is 09:30 into Glasgow.
3.40 The comparison of pre and post opening journey times presented in Table 3.3b indicates that in the inter peak period, there has been a significant increase in train frequency from four to six trains per hour since the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link opened and train frequencies are now comparable with those in the AM peak. As in the AM peak some journey times have increased slightly to integrate the timetable with other services.
Table 3.3c presents the journey times on eastbound services from Glasgow Queen St in the PM peak.
Table 3.3c: Pre & Post Opening Journey Times from Glasgow Queen St Low Level (PM Peak 16:00-19:00)
Sources:
National Rail Timetable (Sunday 13 th December 2009 – Saturday 22 nd May 2010) & Electronic National Rail Timetable (Sunday 8th December 2013 – Saturday 17th May 2014)
Note:
† The 17:54 & 18:24 departures from Glasgow Queen St Lower Level don't call at Blairhill
Note:
^ 1.7 tph is based on 5 services operating in the three hour period
Note: the evening peak as defined in the current ScotRail franchise is 16:00-18:00 out of Glasgow.
3.41 The comparison of pre and post opening journey times presented in Table 3.3c indicates that there is one additional service in the PM peak overall and there are now five rather than three semi-fast services which run non-stop between High Street and Blairhill or Coatbridge Sunnyside. The number of all station stopping services has decreased, which will have reduced train frequencies for passengers using stations between Bellgrove and Blairhill. As in the other time periods journey times have increased for many services since the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link opened which is partly offset by the increases in train frequencies.
3.42 The journey times into Edinburgh Waverley pre and post opening of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link were also analysed. A comparison of journey times from stations to the west of Edinburgh and Edinburgh Waverley in the AM peak and inter peak is shown in Table 3.4a.
| Time Period | tph | Journey Time (mins) to Edinburgh Waverley | |||
| Bathgate | Livingston N | Uphall | Edinburgh Pk | ||
| Pre Opening - December 2009 Timetable | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM Peak | 2 | 31.5 | 26.5 | 22.3 | 12.2 |
| Interpeak | 2 | 31.8 | 27.8 | 23.8 | 12.8 |
| Post Opening - December 2013 Timetable | |||||
| AM Peak | 4 | 27.3 | 23.3 | 20.3 | 11.9 |
| Interpeak | 4 | 26.8 | 22.8 | 19.8 | 11.3 |
Sources: National Rail Timetable (Sunday 13 th December 2009 – Saturday 22 nd May 2010) & Electronic National Rail Timetable (Sunday 8th December 2013 – Saturday 17th May 2014)
3.43 The comparison of pre and post opening journey times presented in Table 3.4a indicates that in addition to the doubling of frequency from two to four tph there have also been significant improvements in journey times. The largest reductions in journey times were from Bathgate and Livingston North to Edinburgh Waverley in the inter peak which have both decreased by 5 minutes.
3.44 The significant improvement in the level of service provided at these stations since the opening of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link suggest that the benefits of the Airdrie to Bathgate scheme were greatest on the eastern section of the line. This may help to explain why patronage and revenue increased significantly more at stations on this section of the line than in the west (shown in Figure 3.1 and 3.2).
3.45 Journey times from Edinburgh Waverley in the PM peak pre and post opening of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link are shown in Table 3.4b.
Table 3.4b: Pre and Post Opening Journey Times from Edinburgh Waverley (PM Peak 16:00-19:00)
Sources: National Rail Timetable (Sunday 13 th December 2009 – Saturday 22 nd May 2010) & Electronic National Rail Timetable (Sunday 8th December 2013 – Saturday 17th May 2014)
3.46 The comparison of pre and post opening journey times presented in Table 3.4b indicates that as in the AM peak and inter peak, the frequency of services has increased and journey times have improved. An exception to this is journey times from Edinburgh Waverley to Edinburgh Park which have increased from 7 to over 10 minutes.
3.47 Analysis of journey times between Glasgow and Edinburgh on the four lines linking the two cities was undertaken. Journey times for services arriving at Glasgow or Edinburgh in the AM peak are shown in Table 3.5.
| Line | Number of Services | To / From Glasgow Station | Journey Time (mins) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum | Maximum | Average | |||||
| Journey Times from Edinburgh Waverley to Glasgow - May 2014 Timetable | |||||||
| via Airdrie | 11 | Queen St | 64 | 82 | 72 | ||
| via Carstairs | 3 | Central | 58 | 90 | 70 | ||
| via Falkirk | 11 | Queen St | 49 | 55 | 53 | ||
| via Shotts | 5 | Central | 71 | 98 | 86 | ||
| Journey Times from Glasgow to Edinburgh Waverley - May 2014 Timetable | |||||||
| via Airdrie | 11 | Queen St | 64 | 81 | 73 | ||
| via Carstairs | 3 | Central | 62 | 83 | 70 | ||
| via Falkirk | 11 | Queen St | 50 | 55 | 52 | ||
| via Shotts | 6 | Central | 69 | 96 | 83 | ||
Sources: National Rail Timetable (Sunday 18 th May 2014 – Saturday 13 th December 2014)
Note: the morning peak as defined for the current ScotRail franchise is slightly different: 07:30-09:30 into Glasgow.
3.48 Table 3.5 indicates that the Falkirk line provides the fastest route for travelling between Glasgow and Edinburgh in the AM peak with even its slowest services offering faster journey times than the quickest services on the other lines. The Airdrie line offers quicker average journey times than the Shotts line and operates at a higher frequency than the Carstairs line suggesting that it may provide an attractive alternative for passengers if the Falkirk line is overcrowded.
3.49 It should be noted that major upgrades are planned for the Falkirk and Shotts lines for completion in 2016 and 2019 respectively. These schemes include completing the electrification of each route and are likely to impact on the relative attractiveness of each line for journeys between Glasgow and Edinburgh.