Airdrie-Bathgate Rail Link Improvement Stage 1 Outcome Evaluation Report
4 PERFORMANCE against OBJECTIVES
4.1 This chapter provides an initial indication of how the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link improvement is progressing towards achieving its objectives (as set out in Chapter 2) using available pre and post opening data, drawing on the operational indicators presented in Chapter 3.
4.2 The methodology for the Stage 1 Outcome Evaluation, including the sources of information used, is set out in Table 4.1.
Improve direct access to labour markets in Glasgow and Edinburgh for people living in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian
4.3 The post opening passenger rail count data presented in Figure 3.3 suggests that the Airdrie/Bathgate line may be predominately used by local commuters travelling to Glasgow and Edinburgh during weekdays.
4.4 Whilst the pre and post opening timetable data presented in Table 3.3a and 3.3c indicates that journey times for local commuters to Glasgow have in general, marginally increased, since the service has been in operation, the number and frequency of services has increased improving access. The analysis of journey times to Edinburgh presented in Table 3.4a and 3.4b shows that service frequencies have doubled between Bathgate and Edinburgh, with significant reductions in journey times on this section of the line
4.5 The pre and post opening timetable data presented in Table 3.2a and 3.2b indicates that journey times from Bathgate to Glasgow and from Airdrie to Edinburgh have significantly reduced since the service has been in operation, with weekday journey times in 2014 up to 3 times quicker than in 2006.
4.6 A comparison of the pre and post trip destination by station data from LENNON presented in Figure 3.4a and 3.4b indicates that there has been an increase in the number of trips from west of Airdrie to east of Bathgate (and vice versa) since the rail link was opened.
Conclusion
4.7 Direct access to labour markets in Glasgow and Edinburgh has been improved for local commuters. There has been an increase in train frequencies to Edinburgh, with significant reductions in journey times since the rail link opened. Whilst some local commuters to Glasgow may have experienced a slight increase in journey times following the rail link opening, these will have been offset, to some degree, by the increased frequency of services.
4.8 By virtue of providing a rail link between Airdrie and Bathgate, direct access between West Lothian Local Authority areas and Glasgow as well as between North Lanarkshire Local Authority areas and Edinburgh, is available.
4.9 Journey times from Bathgate to Glasgow and from Airdrie to Edinburgh have significantly reduced since the service has been in operation improving access to Glasgow from the east and to Edinburgh from the west. As a result of providing improved access, the number of trips from the west to Edinburgh and the east to Glasgow appear to have increased since the rail link was opened.
Encourage inward investment to and therefore stimulate economic growth in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian
4.10 The Gross Value Added (GVA) data for North Lanarkshire and West Lothian Local Authority areas, from the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics website[9], is presented in Figure 4.1 below. GVA data for the South Lanarkshire Local Authority is also presented (due to the opening of the Larkhall to Milngavie improvement in 2005) to provide a benchmark for comparing changes in GVA.
Airdrie-Bathgate Became Fully Operational
Larkhall-Milngavie Opened
Figure 4.1: GVA for Local Authority Areas (1997 – 2012)
4.11 The data shows that the GVA for North Lanarkshire has been fairly consistent since 2007 and that for West Lothian is generally rising in line with the level of increases seen prior to the rail link opening.
4.12 Whilst information for the East Dunbartonshire Local Authority area was not available, the GVA data for South Lanarkshire showed a slightly sharper rise the year after the Larkhall to Milngavie improvement opened than was evident in the years running up to 2005 – although a general downward trend followed for the next four years (until 2010).
Conclusion
4.13 Whilst GVA for North Lanarkshire has been fairly consistent and that for West Lothian has increased, coinciding with the operation of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link, it is not possible to attribute any change in GVA values for the North Lanarkshire and West Lothian Local Authority areas directly to the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link improvement at this early stage.
4.14 Whilst its impact on GVA will materialise over a longer period, it is recognised that it may be difficult to attribute any change directly to the improvement as other external factors are likely to have an influence on GVA in the Local Authority Areas.
Assist in promoting social inclusion to communities in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian
4.15 A pre and post opening comparison of the employment rate for the North Lanarkshire and West Lothian Local Authority areas, from the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics website[10], is presented in Table 4.2 below.
| Local Authority | Percentage Employment Rate (Persons aged 16-64) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
| North Lanarkshire | 70.3% | 70.4% | 69.1% | 68.6% |
| West Lothian | 75.2% | 72.1% | 73.0% | 73.2% |
4.16 The employment rates indicate that the percentage of persons employed has reduced slightly within North Lanarkshire between 2009 and 2011 and increased slightly within West Lothian over the same period.
4.17 A pre and post opening comparison of the number of working age benefit claimants for the North Lanarkshire and West Lothian Local Authority areas, from the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics website[11], is presented in Table 4.3 below.
| Local Authority | Number of Working Age Benefit Claimants | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
| North Lanarkshire | 45,835 | 45,478 | 45,205 | 44,685 |
| West Lothian | 19,018 | 18,970 | 18,765 | 18,330 |
4.18 The analysis of the number of working age benefit claimants indicates that the number of claimants has reduced slightly (by 3% to 4%) within North Lanarkshire and West Lothian between 2009 and 2012.
4.19 Data at a more disaggregated level has been gathered from the Scottish Neighbourhood Survey database, using the following indicators: '% population aged 16-64 claiming Key Benefits/Jobseekers' until 2009 and the replacement '% working age population claiming Key Benefits/Jobseeker's Allowance' indicator from 2010 onwards.
4.20 The index of the percentage of the working age population in Scotland claiming Key Benefits is shown in Figure 4.2. This shows a sharp increase in uptake during the economic downturn in 2008-2009. Since then there has been a drop in claimants till 2010 with varied levels experiences up until 2012. The number of claimants in the areas around Blackridge and Armadale has remained almost steady from 2011-2012; in the area around Caldercruix there has been an increase in 2011-2012.
Figure 4.2: Percentage of Working Age Population Claiming Key Benefits Index (2002 – 2012)
4.21 The index of percentage of the working age population claiming Job Seeker's Allowance (JSA) is shown in Figure 4.3. This is more volatile than the index of percentage claiming key benefits and shows a sharp increase from 2008 to 2009. Since then the overall number of claimants for Scotland has again been volatile with the number of claimants in North Lanarkshire increasing and the number of claimants in West Lothian decreasing. The number of claimants in the area around Caldercruix has been a large increase in JSA claimants since 2011; however the areas around Blackridge and Armadale stations have seen a steady decrease since 2009, possibly encouraged by the impact of the new station.
Figure 4.3: Percentage of Working Age Population Claiming Job Seeker's Allowance Index (2002 – 2012)
4.22 It is difficult to attribute any change in key benefits or JSA directly to the improvement as other external factors are likely to have a greater influence on local employment patterns.
4.23 The Origin-Destination (O-D) surveys[12] that were carried out on services travelling between Helensburgh and Edinburgh in March 2014 ascertain the reasons for the trip being made, the trip origin, the trip destination, other modes used during the journey and frequency of the journey made.
4.24 Additional questions were asked of travellers as part of the survey including:
- "How many vehicles are owned or available for use within your household?"; and
- "Prior to this rail service being available, did you regularly make this journey by another method?".
4.25 Answers to these questions from respondents who stated that their station of origin was between Airdrie and Bathgate have been used as a measure for the impact that the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link improvement may have had on accessibility and, more generally, on social inclusion for more disadvantaged members of society who may have otherwise had no means of available transport.
4.26 An analysis of the number of passengers that have changed journey method and the number of vehicles available in their household is presented in Table 4.4 below.
| Direction | Respondents | Number of Vehicles Available to Households | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5> | ||
| Prior to this rail service being available, did you regularly make this journey by another method? YES | |||||||
| Eastbound | 59 | 10% | 58% | 22% | 7% | 3% | 0% |
| Westbound | 103 | 14% | 43% | 36% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Prior to this rail service being available, did you regularly make this journey by another method? NO | |||||||
| Eastbound | 71 | 17% | 32% | 32% | 11% | 6% | 1% |
| Westbound | 99 | 21% | 44% | 20% | 9% | 5% | 0% |
4.27 Of those passengers who responded to both questions presented in Paragraph 3.20, 17% to 21% of those who did not regularly make the journey by another method, also did not have access to a vehicle, which suggests that the rail link has improved accessibility and social inclusion.
4.28 Of the respondents who stated that they did not make the journey by another method and did not have access to a vehicle, it was noted that approximately 60% stated that they now made the trip more than once a week, with approximately 40% advised that they made the trip more than three times a week, of which the majority stated that they were travelling to or from work.
Conclusion
4.29 In the short term, the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link improvement is unlikely to have significantly influenced employment patterns and, subsequently, the number of benefit claimants (which included persons claiming Job Seekers Allowance) within North Lanarkshire and West Lothian. Whilst its impact on employment may materialise over a longer period, it is recognised that it may be difficult to attribute any change directly to the improvement as other external factors are likely to have a greater influence on local employment patterns and, subsequently, benefit claimant numbers.
4.30 From the analysis of the available O-D survey data, it would appear that the new service is being used by passengers with an origin station between Airdrie and Bathgate that may not otherwise have made the trip and do not have access to a vehicle. Based on this evidence alone, the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link improvement is considered to provide an improved means of travel for more disadvantaged members of society and, as such, may improve accessibility and, more generally, assist in promoting social inclusion.
Increase the number of people using public transport in Central Scotland
4.31 Whilst it has not been possible to compare overall public transport passenger numbers for the Glasgow to Edinburgh corridor, stations on the Airdrie to Bathgate rail line have seen an overall increase in patronage since the opening of the rail link (as noted in Paragraph 2.4), with the largest increases at stations on the eastern section of the Airdrie-Bathgate line. Patronage has also increased overall at stations on the western section of the line which has been supported by expansions to car parking facilities at several stations.
4.32 The rail link has also increased accessibility from communities in Central Scotland to the national rail network. The analysis of pre and post opening trip destinations from Bathgate (presented in Figure 3.6), for example, indicates that the number of individual trip destinations have increased. The data also shows that there has been increases in the number of trips originating from Bathgate to major destinations further afield between the same periods including Stirling, Newcastle and Aberdeen.
4.33 A pre and post opening comparison of the percentage of journeys to work for North Lanarkshire and West Lothian Local Authority areas, from the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics website[13], is presented in Table 4.5 below.
| Local Authority | Percentage of Journeys To Work (By Mode) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-2008 | 2009-2010 | 2012 | |
| Train | |||
| North Lanarkshire | 6.4 | 4.5 | 8.1 |
| West Lothian | 5.3 | n/a | 8.0 |
| Bus | |||
| North Lanarkshire | 10.9 | 9.6 | 8.2 |
| West Lothian | 11.2 | 6.3 | 3.6 |
4.34 The travel to work data indicates that the percentage of journeys to work using rail in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian in 2012 (at around 8%) was higher than it had been in previous years, against a backdrop of reducing bus usage.
Conclusion
4.35 The rail link has created better links to the national rail network from Central Scotland with trip destinations data indicating that the number of journeys has not only increased to stations on the Airdrie-Bathgate line but also to destinations further afield.
4.36 The opening of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link is also likely to have contributed to the increase in journeys to work using rail in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian Local Authority areas as well as Central Scotland more generally.
Offer a sustainable public transport alternative to the M8 and therefore reduce road congestion
4.37 A pre and post opening comparison of annual average daily traffic flows (AADTs) from the Scottish Roads Traffic Database (SRTDb)[14] is presented in Table 4.6 below.
Table 4.6: AADT Flows (2007 – 2013)
| ATC Reference | AADT by Year | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| M8(T) between J3 & J3A (Livingston to Bathgate) | |||||||
| JTC00026 | 61,488 | 55,616 | Not Available | 61,616* | 50,934* | Not Available | Not Available |
| JTC00295 / JTC00297 | 62,318 | 62,431* | 63,185 | 62,372 | 61,801 | 59,712 | 61,485 |
| M8(T) between J3A & J4 (Bathgate to Whitburn) | |||||||
| JTC00027 | 62,487 | 63,506 | 64,011 | 64,598* | 62,647* | 60,335 | 62,629* |
| M8(T) between J4 & J5 (Whitburn to Harthill) | |||||||
| JTC00028 | 60,466 | N/A | 59,601* | Not Available | 57,798* | Not Available | Not Available |
| JTC00292 | 57,772 | 60,509 | 61,179 | 62,105* | 59,879* | 56,495* | Not Available |
| M8(T) between J5 & J6 (Harthill to Newhouse) | |||||||
| JTC00037 | 64,113* | 63,482* | 64,643 | 64,730 | 63,056 | 61,410 | Not Available |
Notes: *Partial Data
4.38 The AADT data indicates that flows along the M8 corridor between Livingston and Newhouse were lower in 2011 and 2012 than in previous years, which coincides with the opening of the rail link. It is important to note that the economic recession and wider economic conditions also will have had an impact on reduced traffic flows across Scotland. Whilst data for 2013 is limited, the information available suggests that flows are increasing.
4.39 A pre and post opening comparison of flows in the AM and PM peak periods (i.e. 7am to 10am and 4pm to 7pm respectively) is presented in Table 4.7a and 4.7b below.
| ATC Reference | AM Peak Period(7am to 10am) by Year | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| M8(T) between J3 & J3A (Livingston to Bathgate) | |||||||
| JTC00026 | 13,475 | 11,988 | Not Available | 13,115* | 11,533* | Not Available | Not Available |
| JTC00295 / JTC00297 | 13,522 | 13,350* | 13,414 | 13,112 | 13,290 | 12,812 | 13,159 |
| M8(T) between J3A & J4 (Bathgate to Whitburn) | |||||||
| JTC00027 | 13,576 | 13,725 | 13,813 | 13,727* | 13,259* | 12,870 | 13,136* |
| M8(T) between J4 & J5 (Whitburn to Harthill) | |||||||
| JTC00028 | 13,196 | Not Available | 12,611* | Not Available | 12,208* | Not Available | Not Available |
| JTC00292 | 12,698 | 13,333 | 13,610 | 13,613* | 13,412* | 12,539* | Not Available |
| M8(T) between J5 & J6 (Harthill to Newhouse) | |||||||
| JTC00037 | 14,359* | 13,634* | 14,066 | 13,957 | 13,536 | 13,471 | Not Available |
Notes: *Partial Data
| ATC Reference | PM Peak Period (4pm to 7pm) by Year | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| M8(T) between J3 & J3A (Livingston to Bathgate) | |||||||
| JTC00026 | 13,212 | 10,525 | Not Available | 13,013* | 10,639* | Not Available | Not Available |
| JTC00295 / JTC00297 | 13,560 | 13,461* | 13,670 | 13,425 | 13,263 | 12,986 | 13,347 |
| M8(T) between J3A & J4 (Bathgate to Whitburn) | |||||||
| JTC00027 | 13,991 | 14,084 | 14,246 | 14,431* | 13,742* | 13,412 | 13,692* |
| M8(T) between J4 & J5 (Whitburn to Harthill) | |||||||
| JTC00028 | 13,484 | Not Available | Not Available | Not Available | 12,837* | Not Available | Not Available |
| JTC00292 | 13,028 | 13,281 | 13,654 | 13,827* | 13,072* | 12,362* | Not Available |
| M8(T) between J5 & J6 (Harthill to Newhouse) | |||||||
| JTC00037 | 14,361* | 13,943* | 14,297 | 14,346 | 13,829 | 13,649 | Not Available |
Notes: *Partial Data
4.40 Both AM and PM period data follow a similar pattern to the AADT flows with traffic levels lower in 2011 and 2012 than in previous years, followed by a subsequent increase in 2013.
Conclusion
4.41 By virtue of providing a rail link between Airdrie and Bathgate, a public transport alternative to the M8 has been created. Whilst this is supported to some degree by the need to provide/expand car parking facilities at stations to meet demand, it is not possible to confirm whether this has removed traffic from the M8.
4.42 The comparison of traffic flows indicates that traffic levels on the section of the M8 between Livingston and Newhouse reduced in the initial years of the service being in operation. Whilst the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link improvement may have contributed to this reduction, it is difficult to confirm the impact that the improvement will have had on traffic using the M8 as many other factors, including wider economic conditions, could have influenced traffic volumes.
4.43 As indicted in Paragraph 3.32, the opening of the Airdrie to Bathgate rail link is likely to have contributed to the increase in journeys to work using rail in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian Local Authority areas, providing a viable public transport alternative to the M8.
Allow existing services to be connected and create an alternative to the Edinburgh – Glasgow main line, reducing congestion at peak times
4.44 The rail link improvement has connected the Airdrie to Glasgow and Bathgate to Edinburgh lines providing an alternative route between Glasgow and Edinburgh.
4.45 As indicated in Paragraph 3.48, the Airdrie line offers quicker average journey times between Glasgow and Edinburgh in the AM peak than the Shotts line and operates at a higher frequency than the Carstairs line suggesting that it may provide an attractive alternative for passengers if the main Glasgow to Edinburgh line via Falkirk is congested and during electrification works in summer 2015.
4.46 Annual patronage data for 2010/11 to 2013/14 for the Edinburgh to Glasgow via Falkirk and Shotts lines, from LENNON, is shown in Figure 4.4.
4.47 This data shows that on the Falkirk line, although demand at Croy and Polmont grew, on average, by over 3% per annum following the opening of the Airdrie to Bathgate link which became fully operational in March 2011, demand at other stations grew only marginally. Demand growth at Lenzie and Falkirk show a similar pattern with little change in 2011/12 followed by a 1% reduction and then a 3% increase in the two subsequent years. Demand at Linlithgow fell in 2011/12 by 2% before increasing by 1% and 2% in 2012/13 and 2013/14 respectively.
4.48 The LENNON patronage data for the Shotts lines in Figure 4.4 shows that patronage continued to grow at the majority of stations following the opening of the Airdrie to Bathgate line. However, demand fell in 2011/12 at Livingston South (4%) and Hartwood (13%) and there was also a small reduction at Kirknewton (1%) although the latter seems to be explained by annual fluctuations over time.
Figure 4.4: Annual Patronage for Falkirk and Shotts Lines by Station (2010/11 to 2013/14)
Source: LENNON
4.49 It seems likely that some of the reduction at Livingston South in 2011/12 was caused by the opening of the Airdrie to Bathgate link as this station is close to Livingston North on the Airdrie to Bathgate line, which offers more frequent services to Edinburgh and quicker average journey times to Glasgow than those services operating on the Shotts line.
4.50 Although there was a significant decline in patronage at Hartwood (12.6%) in 2011/12, demand also fell in 2009/10 (0.8%) and 2010/11 (7.9%). Although the Airdrie to Bathgate link could potentially help to explain some of the large reductions in demand in 2010/11, there is no robust evidence to support this.
4.51 As the LENNON patronage data was only available from 2010 onwards, station usage data from the Office of Rail Regulation (ORR) was analysed to try and understand longer term trends and the impact of the Airdrie to Bathgate link. The station usage data for Falkirk line stations between 2007/08 and 2011/12 is shown in Figure 4.5.
Figure 4.5: ORR Annual Number of Station Entries and Exits (2007/08 – 2012/13)
Source: Office of Rail Regulation (ORR)
4.52 The ORR data shows that the reduction in patronage in 2011/12 at Linlithgow noted above follows a longer term trend of declining patronage starting in 2009/10. However, the decline of 2.9% in 2011/12 was high compared to reductions of 1.3% and 1.5% in 2009/10 and 2010/11 respectively.
4.53 The number of entries and exits at Falkirk High also show both a fall in patronage in 2011/12 but also a declining trend over time. The station usage data for Lenzie provides evidence of a levelling off in demand from 2011/12 onwards although growth in previous years was also relatively small.
4.54 Taking the LENNON patronage and ORR station usage data together, the Airdrie to Bathgate line may have abstracted demand from the Falkirk line. However, there may also have been other contributing factors. If there has been any impact, it has been relatively small.
4.55 Count data was analysed for the Edinburgh to Glasgow via Falkirk line. The train loadings for inbound services in the AM peak and outbound services in the PM peak are shown in Figure 4.6 and 4.7 respectively on the most crowded section of the line, which is to the west of Edinburgh Haymarket.
Figure 4.6: AM Peak Train Loadings by Service on Arrival at Edinburgh Waverley on the Falkirk Line
Source: Count Data
Source: Count Data
4.56 As Figure 4.6 and 4.7 show, rail count data can vary significantly depending on what time of year and day of the week surveys are undertaken and this needs to be borne in mind when analysing the data.
4.57 Figure 4.6 shows that the eastbound services with the highest loadings in the AM peak arrive into Edinburgh Waverley between 07:55 and 08:52. The two services with the highest loadings are the 08:25 and 08:37 arrivals and the level of demand on these services falls over time based on the five surveys undertaken. Demand on the 07:55, 08:06 and 08:52 services varies over time with similar levels of demand in the February 2009 survey before the rail link opened and the most recent survey data available from September 2009.
4.58 Figure 4.7 shows that the pattern is more mixed in the PM peak and less crowded than the AM peak. Although train loadings fall between February 2009 and September 2012 on five of the six busiest services in February 2009, loadings vary by survey and many of the services either side show increases in demand.
4.59 Count data was also analysed on the Airdrie to Bathgate line. This data shows that train loadings arriving into Edinburgh between 8am and 9am increased by 32% between March 2010 and November 2013. The data for PM peak train loadings shows a 46% increase for services departing between 5pm and 6pm. The significant increase in demand levels on these services and the evidence of declining load levels on some Falkirk line services suggest that the Airdrie to Bathgate link may have contributed to lower crowding levels on the Falkirk line.
4.60 The train loading data for services in and out of Glasgow on the Falkirk line are shown in Figure 4.8 and 4.9 respectively.
Figure 4.8: AM Peak Train Loadings by Service on Arrival at Glasgow Queen St on the Falkirk Line
Source: Count Data
Note: * The 08:46 arrival is from Ladybank not Edinburgh
Figure 4.9: PM Peak Train Loadings by Service on Departure from Glasgow Queen St on the Falkirk Line
Source: Count Data
Note: * The 17:33 departure is to Kirkcaldy not Edinburgh
4.61 Figure 4.8 shows that the busiest westbound services in the AM peak arrive at Glasgow Queen St between 8am and 9am. Train loadings have generally declined on these services over time based on the four surveys undertaken, except for the 08:25 service which has seen a rise in the number of passengers.
4.62 The PM data shows that the busiest services depart Glasgow between 16:15 and 17:45. Over the four surveys undertaken demand declines on the majority of these services although this result may be due to variability in count data rather than actual falling demand.
4.63 The count data on the Airdrie to Bathgate line indicates that there was a 4.6% decline in train loadings between February 2009 and November 2013 on arrival into Bellgrove which is the busiest section of the line for arrivals into Glasgow between 8am and 9am. On the same section of the line in the PM peak, loadings declined by 13.5% for departures from Glasgow between 5pm and 6pm on the same survey days.
4.64 It is thought that it is unlikely that these two surveys accurately represent the changes in crowding levels on the Airdrie to Bathgate line and that average train loadings have fallen at peak times. However, the results do suggest that train loadings into and out of Glasgow may not have increased as much as those into and out of Edinburgh which is supported by the LENNON data in Figure 3.1 which indicates that demand has increased much more significantly at stations on the eastern section of the line compared to the western section.
Conclusion
4.64 LENNON patronage data for stations on the Falkirk and Shotts lines suggests that there may be some evidence for abstraction of demand to the Airdrie to Bathgate line. However, there may be other factors which explain the fluctuations in demand at particular stations and the level of abstraction is relatively minor. It is also recognised that it can take people time to adjust their travel behaviour and the number of passengers using the Airdrie to Bathgate service to travel between Glasgow and Edinburgh may increase over time.
4.65 Count data for the Falkirk line was also analysed to determine the impact of the Airdrie to Bathgate line on crowding at peak times. The evidence suggests that the Airdrie to Bathgate line may have reduced crowding on Falkirk line services on the eastern section of the line, with falling demand on Falkirk line services and strong growth on Airdrie to Bathgate line services in the east since the rail link opened.
4.66 The count data for the western section of the line provides evidence of reduced crowding into and out of Glasgow on the Falkirk line but crowding levels have also fallen slightly on the Airdrie to Bathgate line over the same period. Based on the data analysed, there is no evidence to suggest that the Airdrie to Bathgate link has reduced crowding on the Falkirk line into and out of Glasgow. This is likely to be explained by the relatively small changes in service offering before and after the link opened on the western section of the line and the low number of passengers crossing the Airdrie/Bathgate gap indicated by the travel pattern analysis presented in Chapter 3.