5. Outlook

Carbon Account for Transport No. 11: 2019 Edition

5. Outlook

This report has presented emissions data for Scotland's transport sector between 1990 and 2017. Over this period, Scotland's transport emissions have fluctuated but are now slightly above the 1990 baseline level, and transport is now the largest source of emissions in Scotland. This means the transport sector now plays an increasingly important role in reducing Scotland's emissions.

The emissions data presented in this report are not published until 18 months after the end of the last year reported, therefore it is not possible to present any information about Scottish emissions in 2018 at this stage. However, some indicators of Scotland's transport emissions for 2018 are available:

  • Road vehicle kilometres. Road vehicle kilometres increased by 0.3% between 2017 and 2018. In comparison, between 2016 and 2017 Scotland's road vehicle kilometres increased by 3.3%.[9]
  • ULEV sales. The number of ULEVs registered for the first time in Scotland increased from 2,546 in 2017 to 3,537 in 2018, an increase of 38.9%. The total number of ULEVs registered in Scotland increased by 51.2% from 7,508 to 11,350 in 2018.[10]
  • Efficiency of registered vehicles. The average CO2 emissions of new car registrations increased from 120.2 g/km in 2017 to 123.6g/km in 2018. However, the average emissions of all cars registered in Scotland fell from 139.1 g/km to 136.5 g/km.[11]
  • Aircraft movements. The number of aircraft movements decreased from 495,000 in 2017 to 481,000 in 2018.[12]

In addition to the above indicators, 2018 was the first full year in which the Edinburgh to Glasgow railway line was fully electrified; emissions data for 2018 will give an indication of the extent to which this has affected rail emissions.

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