Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts of Changes in Maintenance Spend on Local Roads in Scotland

1 Introduction

This study was commissioned on behalf of the Wider Economic Issues, Impacts, Costs and Benefits Working Group, as part of the National Road Maintenance Review for Scotland, to carry out an analysis of the Scottish Local Authority road network. The purpose of the analysis was to determine the economic, environmental and social impacts of 3 different road maintenance budget scenarios over a 20 year analysis period. The analysis included assessment of vehicle operating costs, user costs, emissions costs and a range of wider factors aligned with the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) criteria (Transport Scotland, 2011a).

The analysis used projected road pavement (i.e. carriageway) network condition data from 8 sample Local Authorities, chosen to be representative of the different types of Local Authority in Scotland. The study also included a literature review, focused on determining the wider socio-economic impacts of changes in the road transport service provision (e.g. the forced closure of a bridge) which may be an increased risk with reduced maintenance budgets.

1.1 Context

Scotland's road network, at approximately 56,000km, is the largest and most valuable community asset in Scotland of which 52,000km are the responsibility of Local Authorities. It plays a vital role in supporting Scotland's economy, facilitating the movement of people, goods and services throughout the country and connecting people with economic and social opportunities.

The Audit Scotland Report - Maintaining Scotland's Roads (Audit Scotland, 2011) highlighted that the overall maintenance backlog on Scotland's roads is £2.25 billion. Of this, £1.54 billion relates to the maintenance backlog on Local Authority roads and £0.713 billion relates to trunk roads, including bridges. The report included a central recommendation for the Scottish Government to take forward a national review of "how the road network is managed and maintained, with a view to stimulating service redesign and increasing the pace of examining the potential for shared services."

The Government accepted the central recommendations in the report and announced on 25 February 2011 that a national Road Maintenance Review would be undertaken looking at how the road network in Scotland is managed and maintained.

The Review was taken forward by Transport Scotland in partnership with the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (CoSLA), the Society of Local Authority Chief Executives (SOLACE), Society of Chief Officers of Transportation in Scotland (SCOTS) and the Scottish Road Works Commissioner under the guidance of a Steering Group. The Review commenced in March 2011 with a timetable to report to Ministers and Council Leaders in early autumn 2011 in time to inform a Road Maintenance Summit. The Summit was held on 2nd November 2011.

The Steering Group is supported by four Working Groups drawn from Steering Group member organisations as well as invited stakeholders. This study and associated reports has been commissioned by Transport Scotland on behalf of the Wider Economic Issues, Impacts, Costs and Benefits Working Group (WG4). This Working Group monitored and assessed the work in this study as it progressed.

1.2 Study for the trunk road network

Transport Scotland commissioned an associated study on the economic, environmental and society effects of different levels of maintenance funding for the Transport Scotland trunk road network. The aim of the study was to investigate the effects of changes in road maintenance funding between 2010 and 2020 and used three scenarios to examine different levels of maintenance funding:

Scenario 1 (Base case): Constant annual level of spend (2010/11 funding level continues) for 20 years
Scenario 2: Reduction in the annual spend in Scenario 1 by 20% (starting 2010/11) for the first 10 years. Return the annual spend to current 2010/11 levels using annual uniform increases, between 2020 and 2025. From 2026, increase annual funding by 2.5% per year
Scenario 3: Reduction in the annual spend in Scenario 1 by 40% (starting 2010/11) for the first 10 years. Return the maintenance budget to current 2010/11 levels using annual uniform increases, between 2020 and 2025. From 2026, increase annual funding by 2.5% per year

The study reviewed the current internationally available evidence, analysed potential changes in the amount of maintenance that would be undertaken on the trunk road network and where possible estimated the monetised costs and benefits arising from:

Changes in Transport Scotland maintenance budget;
Changes in accident rates;
Vehicle operating costs and depreciation;
Changes in journey time;
Global (i.e. CO₂) emissions; and
Customer satisfaction.

A full technical report has been provided in 2011 (Transport Scotland, 2011b).

1.3 Study for the local road network

The Working Group (WG4) considered the trunk road study when collating evidence for the Review and identified the following work to feed into the Review:

A study similar to that completed for the trunk road network in Scotland for the local road network, considering similar scenarios to the earlier trunk road study;
Consideration of evidence for the full range of issues (qualitative or quantitative as appropriate) that might be applicable to local roads under the different funding scenarios; and
Exploration of the sensitivity of the results of the analyses for local and trunk roads for those variables seen to have a key impact on the results of the changes in maintenance funding.

This report addresses all of these issues and provides detailed background on the analyses and review that has been undertaken. A Summary Report (Transport Scotland, 2011c) (Transport Scotland, 2011c) combines the results from this report and the trunk road study to provide an overview of the impact for the entire Scottish road network.

For the 20 year analysis period, the scenarios considered were:

Scenario 1 (Base case): Constant annual level of spend (2010/11^[1] funding level continues) for 20 years
Scenario 2: Reduction in the annual spend in Scenario 1 by 20% (starting 2010/11) for the first 10 years. Return the annual spend to current 2010/11 levels using annual uniform increases, between 2020 and 2025. From 2026, increase annual funding by 2.5% per year
Scenario 3: Reduction in the annual spend in Scenario 1 by 40% (starting 2010/11) for the first 10 years. Return the maintenance budget to current 2010/11 levels using annual uniform increases, between 2020 and 2025. From 2026, increase annual funding by 2.5% per year

In line with the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) (Transport Scotland, 2011a) (Transport Scotland, 2011a) requirements, the results of all the analyses given in this report are given in 2002 prices to enable comparison with different studies over time.

1.4 Layout of report

The report describes the separate activities in the study and the conclusions drawn. The main body of the report includes descriptions of the analysis methodology, an overview of Scotland's local road network and sample results of the analysis using data for one Local Authority. The main body of the report also includes discussion of the broader impacts and qualitative assessments of the different budget scenarios and culminates with conclusions and recommendations based on the results of the analysis.

The results of the analyses were derived for each year of the analysis period. To aid the clarity of presentation the results have generally been shown graphically as points with a line joining the points for each Scenario.

The results of the literature review are reported in Section 3 with a bibliography in Section 16 and more detailed information provided in Appendix A and Appendix B.

Section 4 describes the local road network in Scotland and provides key data that forms the basis of the analyses up to 2030.

The methodology and results for refining the funding scenarios are described in Section 5. Sections 6 to 10 describe the methodologies and results of each effect and impact that has been studied and, where relevant, notes whether the analysis has been based on a sample of Authorities or the full network.

Section 12 describes how the sample analyses have been scaled up to estimate the full network impact.

Section 13 examines the effects on depreciation of the road network asset value for each of the funding scenarios.

Section 14 reviews the analyses undertaken and summarises both the qualitative and quantitative impacts that have been identified. The impacts are described in terms of the STAG criteria for transport project appraisals.

Section 15 provides the conclusions and recommendations from the qualitative and quantitative analyses.

Appendices are provided for each Section containing more detailed information, as appropriate, for more detailed descriptions of the analysis methodologies adopted and results from all the analyses as well as further information on the literature review and the key assumptions and data used in the analyses.