Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts of Changes in Maintenance Spend on Local Roads in Scotland

Appendix J Time Series Information of Economic Costs and Benefits

This Appendix provides tabulated network results (scaled up from the 8 sample Authorities) of all quantitative economic analyses carried out on the Scottish Local Authority road network as part of the study. Where appropriate, data has been tabulated to show the non-discounted and discounted costs in each year of the analysis (2010 - 2030) at 2002 prices.

Note that time series results derived from maintenance works data (i.e. treatment lengths are only available from 2010 to 2029). This is because the modelling applies treatments in year and then projects the resulting condition for the next year in the analysis. Therefore 2029/30 is the last year of treatment and 2030 is the last year of projected condition information.

Full tabulated time series results can be found in Table J.1 to Table J.8.

Table J.1 Maintenance works costs
Year Agency Costs: Maintenance Works Costs
(£m 2002 prices)
Undiscounted Discounted
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
2011 399 320 240 386 309 232
2012 399 320 240 373 298 224
2013 399 320 240 360 288 216
2014 399 320 240 348 278 209
2015 399 320 240 336 269 202
2016 399 320 240 325 260 195
2017 399 320 240 314 251 188
2018 399 320 240 303 243 182
2019 399 320 240 293 234 176
2020 399 320 240 283 227 170
2021 399 336 272 274 230 186
2022 399 352 304 264 233 201
2023 399 368 336 255 235 215
2024 399 383 368 247 237 227
2025 399 399 399 238 238 238
2026 399 409 409 230 236 236
2027 399 420 420 223 234 234
2028 399 430 430 215 232 232
2029 399 441 441 208 229 229
2030 399 452 452 201 227 227
Total 7989 7185 6227 5677 4988 4218

 

Table J.2 Vehicle operating costs
Year Vehicle Operating Costs
(£m 2002 prices)
Undiscounted Discounted
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
2011 17,047 17,059 17,070 16,470 16,482 16,493
2012 17,278 17,302 17,324 16,129 16,151 16,172
2013 17,508 17,544 17,578 15,792 15,824 15,854
2014 17,809 17,859 17,906 15,519 15,563 15,604
2015 18,109 18,174 18,235 15,248 15,302 15,353
2016 18,410 18,489 18,563 14,976 15,040 15,101
2017 18,710 18,803 18,892 14,706 14,779 14,849
2018 18,987 19,096 19,201 14,419 14,502 14,581
2019 19,265 19,388 19,510 14,135 14,226 14,315
2020 19,542 19,681 19,819 13,854 13,952 14,050
2021 19,790 19,935 20,078 13,555 13,654 13,753
2022 20,037 20,188 20,338 13,260 13,360 13,460
2023 20,285 20,442 20,598 12,970 13,071 13,171
2024 20,532 20,696 20,858 12,684 12,786 12,886
2025 20,780 20,950 21,118 12,403 12,505 12,605
2026 21,049 21,212 21,378 12,139 12,233 12,329
2027 21,317 21,475 21,638 11,878 11,966 12,057
2028 21,586 21,737 21,898 11,621 11,702 11,789
2029 21,855 22,000 22,158 11,368 11,443 11,526
2030 22,124 22,262 22,418 11,119 11,188 11,266
Total 392,020 394,292 396,578 274,246 275,731 277,212

 

Table J.3 User delay costs
Year User Delay Costs
(£m 2002 prices)
Undiscounted Discounted
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
2011 81 45 11 81 45 11
2012 87 49 12 84 47 12
2013 90 50 12 84 47 12
2014 83 51 19 75 46 18
2015 86 52 20 75 46 17
2016 89 54 21 75 46 18
2017 92 56 21 75 46 17
2018 94 58 25 74 45 20
2019 97 60 26 73 45 20
2020 100 62 27 73 45 20
2021 104 86 70 73 61 49
2022 107 89 72 73 61 49
2023 110 91 74 73 60 49
2024 113 94 76 72 60 49
2025 115 96 78 71 59 48
2026 120 125 123 71 75 73
2027 123 129 126 71 74 73
2028 126 132 130 70 74 72
2029 128 134 132 69 72 71
2030 131 138 135 68 72 70
Total 2,073 1,650 1,212 1,480 1,126 768

 

Table J.4 Travel time costs
Year Increase in Travel Time Costs
(£m 2002 prices)
Undiscounted Discounted
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
2011 61 62 62 59 60 60
2012 66 67 69 62 63 64
2013 71 73 75 64 66 68
2014 77 80 83 67 70 72
2015 83 87 90 70 73 76
2016 89 94 98 73 76 80
2017 95 101 106 75 79 83
2018 102 108 114 77 82 86
2019 108 115 121 79 84 89
2020 114 122 129 81 86 92
2021 120 128 136 82 88 93
2022 127 135 143 84 89 95
2023 133 142 150 85 90 96
2024 140 148 157 86 92 97
2025 146 155 164 87 92 98
2026 152 160 169 88 92 97
2027 158 166 174 88 92 97
2028 164 171 179 88 92 96
2029 170 176 184 88 92 96
2030 176 182 189 88 91 95
Total 2,352 2,469 2,592 1,572 1,651 1,730

 

Table J.5 Carbon emissions costs due to network unevenness
Year Carbon Emissions Costs due to Network Condition
(£m 2002 prices)
Undiscounted Discounted
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
2011 920 920 920 889 889 889
2012 937 937 938 875 875 875
2013 954 955 956 861 861 862
2014 970 971 971 845 846 847
2015 986 986 987 830 831 831
2016 1,001 1,002 1,003 814 815 816
2017 1,017 1,018 1,019 799 800 801
2018 1,029 1,031 1,032 782 783 784
2019 1,042 1,044 1,045 764 766 767
2020 1,055 1,057 1,058 748 749 750
2021 1,067 1,069 1,071 731 732 734
2022 1,080 1,082 1,084 715 716 717
2023 1,093 1,095 1,097 699 700 701
2024 1,105 1,108 1,110 683 684 686
2025 1,118 1,120 1,123 667 669 670
2026 1,138 1,140 1,142 656 657 659
2027 1,157 1,159 1,162 645 646 647
2028 1,177 1,179 1,181 634 635 636
2029 1,196 1,198 1,200 622 623 624
2030 1,216 1,218 1,220 611 612 613
Total 21,258 21,289 21,321 14,870 14,890 14,911

 

Table J.6 Carbon emissions costs due to maintenance works (plant and materials)
Year Carbon Costs due to Maintenance Works
(£m 2002 prices)
Undiscounted Discounted
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
2011 6.006 3.213 1.187 6.006 3.213 1.187
2012 6.096 3.261 1.205 5.890 3.151 1.164
2013 6.187 3.310 1.223 5.776 3.090 1.141
2014 5.572 3.210 1.263 5.025 2.896 1.139
2015 5.656 3.259 1.282 4.929 2.840 1.117
2016 5.740 3.308 1.301 4.833 2.785 1.096
2017 5.826 3.357 1.321 4.740 2.731 1.075
2018 5.729 3.241 1.486 4.503 2.547 1.168
2019 5.815 3.290 1.508 4.416 2.498 1.146
2020 5.902 3.339 1.531 4.331 2.450 1.123
2021 6.048 4.425 3.639 4.287 3.137 2.580
2022 6.149 4.499 3.700 4.212 3.082 2.534
2023 6.249 4.573 3.760 4.136 3.026 2.488
2024 6.350 4.647 3.821 4.060 2.971 2.443
2025 6.451 4.720 3.882 3.985 2.916 2.398
2026 6.731 5.981 5.842 4.018 3.570 3.487
2027 6.834 6.072 5.932 3.941 3.502 3.421
2028 6.938 6.165 6.022 3.866 3.435 3.356
2029 7.042 6.257 6.112 3.791 3.368 3.290
2030 7.145 6.349 6.202 3.717 3.302 3.226
Total 124.466 86.474 62.220 90.460 60.510 40.580

 

Table J.7 Carbon emissions costs due to vehicle delays through roadworks
Year Carbon Costs due to Delayed Vehicles Through Roadworks
(£m 2002 prices)
Undiscounted Discounted
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
2011 0.549 0.249 0.079 0.549 0.249 0.079
2012 0.570 0.258 0.082 0.551 0.249 0.079
2013 0.592 0.268 0.085 0.553 0.250 0.079
2014 0.571 0.277 0.122 0.515 0.250 0.110
2015 0.591 0.286 0.126 0.515 0.249 0.110
2016 0.612 0.296 0.130 0.515 0.249 0.110
2017 0.634 0.306 0.135 0.516 0.249 0.110
2018 0.666 0.323 0.150 0.523 0.254 0.118
2019 0.688 0.334 0.155 0.522 0.254 0.118
2020 0.706 0.342 0.159 0.518 0.251 0.117
2021 0.797 0.480 0.400 0.565 0.341 0.283
2022 0.829 0.499 0.415 0.568 0.342 0.285
2023 0.860 0.517 0.430 0.569 0.342 0.285
2024 0.893 0.537 0.446 0.571 0.343 0.285
2025 0.927 0.557 0.464 0.573 0.344 0.286
2026 1.049 0.732 0.728 0.626 0.437 0.434
2027 1.087 0.758 0.754 0.627 0.437 0.435
2028 1.130 0.787 0.783 0.629 0.438 0.436
2029 1.189 0.828 0.824 0.640 0.446 0.443
2030 1.235 0.859 0.855 0.643 0.447 0.445
Total 16.175 9.493 7.322 11.288 6.421 4.648

 

Table J.8 Net lighting and accident costs
Year Costs of lighting and changes in numbers of accidents
(£m 2002 prices)
Undiscounted Discounted
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
2011 142 142 142 142 142 142
2012 142 143 145 137 138 140
2013 142 143 145 132 134 135
2014 142 143 145 128 129 131
2015 142 143 145 123 125 126
2016 142 143 145 119 121 122
2017 142 143 145 115 117 118
2018 142 143 145 111 113 114
2019 142 143 145 108 109 110
2020 142 143 145 104 105 106
2021 142 143 145 100 102 103
2022 142 143 145 97 98 99
2023 142 143 144 94 95 95
2024 142 143 144 91 91 92
2025 142 143 144 88 88 89
2026 142 142 143 85 85 86
2027 142 142 143 82 82 82
2028 142 142 143 79 79 79
2029 142 142 142 76 76 77
2030 142 142 142 74 74 74
2031 142 142 142 71 71 71
Total 2975 2998 3023 2155 2173 2192