Delivery of casualty reduction targets for 2020

The Framework included Scotland-specific targets (with 2015 milestones) due for delivery in 2020. These targets and milestones are included in Table 1. Each reduction target is assessed against a 2004/08 average baseline. In addition to the above four targets a pre-existing target (a ten per cent reduction in the slight casualty rate) continued to be adopted. Progress is assessed towards a milestone in 2015 and the final target by means of an indicative trend based on a constant annual percentage reduction.

Target	2015 milestone % reduction	2020 target % reduction
People killed	30%	40%
People seriously injured	43%	55%
Children (aged < 16) killed *	35%	50%
Children (aged < 16) seriously injured	50%	65%

Table 1: Casualty reduction targets in Scotland's 2009 Road Safety Framework

As outlined above, due to changes in the reporting system used by Police Scotland, the number of serious and slight casualties cannot be directly compared to previously recorded figures. As a result, progress against the serious casualty reduction targets are based on adjusted figures, produced by the Department for Transport. The adjusted figures show how many serious casualties there would have been in previous years if they had been recorded using the same sort of reporting system that Police Scotland use currently.

Table 2 below provides final progress against the five national casualty reduction targets for 2020 and shows that the reduction achieved exceeded all five targets. Note that all the casualty reduction milestones for 2015 were met, bar the one on people seriously injured.

2004/08 baseline	2020 target	2020 actual figures	Final status
292	175 = 40% reduction in people killed	141 = 52% reduction	exceeded target
4,865	2,191 = 55% reduction in people seriously injured	1,547 = 68% reduction	exceeded target
15	8 = 50% reduction in children killed	6 in 2020 but average for the 2018- 2020 period was 4 a year= 76% reduction	exceeded target
626	219= 65% reduction in children seriously injured	144 = 77% reduction	exceeded target
27.01 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres	24.3 = 10% reduction in the slight casualty rate	8.85 = 67% reduction	exceeded target

Table 2: Progress against five national casualty reduction targets for 2020 since 2004/08 baseline

Target: 40% reduction in those killed by 2020

141 people were reported as killed in 2020, 52 per cent (151) below the 2004- 2008 average of 292. The decrease seen to 2020 has exceeded the framework target for 2020 (a reduction of 40% from 2004-08). Figure 3 shows that the total number of fatalities in 2020 was below the indicative line in purple representing a constant annual percentage decrease that would result in meeting the 2020 targets and has been for the past few years.

Figure 3 shows that the total number of fatalities in 2020 was below the indicative line in purple representing a constant annual percentage decrease that would result in meeting the 2020 targets and has been for the past few years.

Target: 55% reduction in those seriously injured by 2020

Due to changes in severity reporting, progress against this target is measured on the basis of adjusted figures provided by the Department for Transport. These figures illustrate how many casualties there would have been in previous years if they had been recorded using an injury-based recording system. On the basis of the adjusted figures, 1,547 people were reported as seriously injured in 2020, 68 per cent (3,318) below the 2004-2008 average of 4,865. Figure 4 shows that the reduction has exceeded the framework target for 2020 (a reduction of 55% from 2004-08). Prior to the casualty reductions in 2020, Scotland had seen significant reductions but was not on track to meet this target. The reduction achieved in 2020 compared to previous years should be seen in the wider context of lower level of road traffic in Scotland in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The below chart show an “indicative line” in purple representing a constant annual percentage decrease that would result in meeting the 2020 targets.

Figure 4: Progress towards casualties seriously injured reduction target

Target: 50% reduction in children killed by 2020

Due to small numbers and year-to-year fluctuations this target is measured using a three-year average. 6 children were reported as killed in 2020, meaning the average for the 2018- 2020 period was 4 a year, this is 76 per cent (11) below the 2004-2008 average of 15. Figure 5 shows that the reduction has exceeded the 2020 target.

The below chart show an “indicative line” in purple representing a constant annual percentage decrease that would result in meeting the 2020 targets.

6 children were reported as killed in 2020, meaning the average for the 2018- 2020 period was 4 a year, this is 76 per cent (11) below the 2004-2008 average of 15. Figure 5 shows that the reduction has exceeded the 2020 target.

Figure 5: Progress towards children killed reduction target

Target: 65% reduction in children seriously injured by 2020

Due to changes in severity reporting, progress against this target is measured on the basis of adjusted figures provided by the Department for Transport. These figures illustrate how many casualties there would have been in previous years if they had been recorded using an injury-based recording system. On the basis of the adjusted figures, 144 children were reported as seriously injured in 2020, 77 per cent (482) below the 2004-2008 average of 626. Figure 6 shows that the decrease has exceeded the framework target for 2020 (a reduction of 65% from 2004-08). Prior to the casualty reductions in 2020, Scotland had seen significant reductions but was not on track to meet the target. The reduction achieved in 2020 compared to previous years should be seen in the wider context of lower level of road traffic in Scotland in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The below chart show an “indicative line” in purple representing a constant annual percentage decrease that would result in meeting the 2020 targets.

Figure 6: Progress towards children seriously injured reduction target

Target: 10% reduction in the slightly injured rate by 2020

Figure 7: Progress towards slight casualty reduction target

Priority Focus Areas outcomes and indicators

As previously mentioned the mid-term review of the Framework further enhanced its performance management system to reconcile the fact that different reductions had been seen amongst different road user types and therefore set overarching outcomes and indicators specific to three Priority Focus Areas. For example in relation to the Speed Priority Focus Area, one of the outcomes was to “increase the proportion of vehicles travelling at appropriate speeds on Scotland’s roads to support reducing road casualty numbers”. One of the indicators was the “positive behavioural or attitudinal trends in drivers including driving at appropriate speeds and awareness and understanding of speed limits and what they mean”.

The progress towards the delivery of these outcomes and the monitoring of their respective indicators were reported in the Outcomes Indicator Toolkit (OIT) which used a Red/Amber/Green (RAG) rating to illustrate the relative position of progress towards delivery and provided graphical summary sheet of the relevant indicators. The OIT was updated before each of the OPG and SPB meetings and reviewed at these meetings. The last OIT produced can be found in Annex A.

Table 3 provides RAG status for each of the Framework’s outcomes and indicates that they are all improving but none of them achieved a Green RAG status meaning more works need to be done in the future. In addition no assessment of the RAG status could be done in relation to the Pre-drivers outcome because the findings from the evaluation of Pre-driver interventions were that “there is currently no robust evidence suggesting that pre-driver interventions are being effective at improving road safety”. Even over a long period of time being a “safe driver” could not be solely contributed to a pre driver intervention.

Speed and Motorcyclists

Overarching outcomes

Increase the proportion of vehicles travelling at appropriate speeds on Scotland’s roads to support reducing road casualty numbers.

Red, amber green (RAG) status - Amber/Green (Ongoing/complete)

Direction of status - improving

Improve the safety of motorcycling by reducing levels of motorcycle injury accidents on the road network to support reducing road casualty numbers.

RAG status - Red/Amber (Incomplete/ongoing)