Feasibility Study: Enhanced Rail Services between Edinburgh and Newcastle

5 Timetable Analysis

5.1 Introduction

5.1.1 This chapter outlines the method and assumptions used to generate timetable options for new Edinburgh - Newcastle services.

5.1.2 The objective is to show the maximum potential for additional paths in the timetable to steer discussion around which paths would be most beneficial to develop into a full operational timetable.

5.1.3 Three main options have been evaluated:

  • Option 1: Edinburgh - Dunbar stopping all stations;
  • Option 2: Edinburgh - Berwick-upon-Tweed stopping all stations; and
  • Option 3: Edinburgh - Newcastle semi-fast key stations only.

5.2 Method

Data Used

5.2.1 A 'RailSys' model was used to develop the timetable options. RailSys is used for detailed timetabling, operational, and infrastructure capacity / performance modelling studies. It is regarded as the industry standard tool for this type of analysis.

5.2.2 A RailSys model requires defined 'infrastructure' which was received from Network Rail and 'timetabled services' which in this case is the May 2011 EUREKA timetable, also received from Network Rail. Freight services have been included to represent a typical weekday. These were compared to the specific freight services run on 15 October 2009 and deemed to be sufficiently representative.

May 2011 Timetable

5.2.3 The May 2011 timetable was imported onto the RailSys infrastructure and the timetable was 'cleaned' of importing errors caused by translation between formats such as incorrect train routeing or duplicate trains for different periods. The 'static conflicts' within the model were then reduced to an acceptable level. Static conflicts are those reported by RailSys as signal system infringements. These can be thought of as inherent 'primary' delays in the timetable that may go on to give 'secondary' delays. However because of the reporting inconsistency within RailSys these should be treated as being of second order importance.

5.2.4 'Dynamic conflicts' within the timetable have been reduced to an acceptable level (below 120 seconds) and are measured on a perfect day of operation without any external perturbation. This will include secondary delay caused by the static conflicts (primary delay).

5.2.5 In short, the process of cleaning static and dynamic conflicts gives a good representation of the base timetable within RailSys to use for assessing the option timetables.

Option Timetables

5.2.6 For the option timetables a standard stopping pattern service was created using a representative Class 333 rolling stock type (data for a Class 380, the most likely trains to be used to form any services, was not available). This gives the template train from which individual services were created throughout the day.

5.2.7 The timings for services presented below show the maximum number of trains which could be accommodated within the current May 2011 timetable, without making modifications to existing passenger services.

5.2.8 As noted above, three option timetables have been assessed:

  • Edinburgh - Dunbar stopping all stations;
  • Edinburgh - Berwick-upon-Tweed stopping all stations; and
  • Edinburgh - Newcastle semi-fast key stations only.

5.2.9 It should be noted that the paths have not been fully worked up to an operational level - for example the terminal station platform allocation and connecting return services. This is most important at Dunbar and Berwick-upon-Tweed where only one platform is available for turning back services. Some other minor alterations to either Empty Coaching Stock (ECS) or freight movements may also be required. Each service has been individually modified to fit around existing services.

5.2.10 RailSys does not report Rules of the Plan (ROTP) violations, as the software is set up to show signal system infringements. The time it takes for the signalling system to clear a route is usually less than the values written in the ROTP to give a planning margin. Therefore RailSys can under report potential ROTP conflicts. We have completed a manual check for the new trains through the known pinch point of Portobello Junction to ensure that the ROTP at this critical junction are complied with.

Assumptions

5.2.11 The key operational assumptions are as follows:

  • actual - Class 380 - Length: 23m, cars: three or four car, speed: 161kph (100mph);
  • modelled - Class 333 - Length: 23m, cars: four car, speed: 161kph (100mph);
  • platforming at Edinburgh: assumed some re-working would be required;
  • platforming at Newcastle: assumed some re-working would be required;
  • turnaround at Berwick-upon-Tweed assumes use of a single platform;
  • flexibility of freight service timings so long as depot times are met;
  • flexibility of ECS service timings so long as times are met;
  • running times for the new services are rounded up the half minute between key stations and junction timing points; and
  • as the timetable has been sourced from Network Rail, it is assumed that the ROTP for 2011 has been complied with.

5.3 Results

5.3.1 For each of the options, the maximum number of services that can be added to the timetable is shown. Additionally a list of the issues with the new services is given.

5.3.2 Some general points are listed below:

  • adding new station stops (ie Reston and East Linton) can generally be accommodated without significant changes to the timetable;
  • removing stops on East Coast and Cross Country services, specifically at Dunbar would improve availability of platform capacity;
  • some ECS and freight movements may need to be modified to fit around the new services; and
  • addressing platform working at the terminal stations would give an opportunity to inter-work between other routes and potentially give a benefit to rolling stock requirement, and platform capacity. There would however be a potential performance risk.

5.3.3 Table 5.1 below shows the 'standard' train paths which have been identified for each of the three service permutations: ie Edinburgh - Dunbar, Edinburgh - Berwick-upon-Tweed, and Edinburgh - Newcastle.

5.3.4 These show stopping patterns and timings throughout, and represent a nominal path giving the stopping pattern and running time between each station pair.

Table 5.1 Standard Train Paths - Newcastle, Berwick and Dunbar

Table 5.1 Standard Train Paths - Newcastle, Berwick and Dunbar

5.3.5 Tables 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4 then show details of the individual paths identified for Dunbar, Berwick and Newcastle respectively, throughout the day.

5.3.6 Some issues to note are:

Option 1: Edinburgh - Dunbar

  • potential for up to 17 northbound services;
  • potential for up to 23 southbound services;
  • capacity on the single platform at Dunbar limits the number of services that can turn back at the platform; and
  • the four existing ScotRail Dunbar service paths could be combined with or replaced by the new paths to form the service.

Option 2: Edinburgh - Berwick-upon-Tweed

  • potential for up to 15 northbound services;
  • potential for up to 18 southbound services;
  • turning back at Berwick assumed only a single platform available; and
  • replacing ScotRail Dunbar services would release additional paths and platform capacity.

Option 3: Edinburgh - Newcastle

  • potential for up to 15 northbound services;
  • potential for up to 17 southbound services;
  • platform availability at Newcastle and conflicts in the station throat limit capacity; and
  • replacing Northern Rail services would release additional paths and platform capacity.

5.3.7 At this stage of the planning process we have worked on the assumption that existing services are effectively fixed in their paths. During the Network Rail operational planning process, opportunities will exist to alter these services subject to the agreement of the operators concerned.

5.3.8 Other points to note are:

  • the paths identified in Tables 5.2 - 5.4 are those which have been identified as being available - this does not imply that all could or would be used;
  • Dunbar platform availability limits the services that can turn back at Dunbar while East Coast and Cross Country services share the single platform in both directions;
  • replacement or extension of ScotRail Dunbar and Northern Rail Morpeth and Chathill services could make further paths available or bring clock-face times to the option - available as part of the Network Rail timetable planning process;
  • limitations of the infrastructure at Dunbar and Berwick-upon-Tweed are a potential restriction on meeting desired service level; and
  • turnback platform capacity requirements at Edinburgh and Newcastle will need to be included in the operators timetable planning and rolling stock diagramming processes.

5.3.9 Additionally ScotRail as the possible operator of the new services will be able to alter its own operations to improve the paths that can be found for the new services. This may include:

  • inter-working rolling stock fleets to optimise turnaround times and platform occupation times at Edinburgh; and
  • replacing or retiming existing services to give an even hourly or two-hourly service pattern. This may in practice not be possible because of constraints elsewhere on the network or because of the timings of other operator's services. Where services are replaced it will need to be proven that the new services do not degrade the passenger service at any intermediate stops.

5.3.10 Table 5.5 then shows a range of the existing Northern and ScotRail services which are most likely to be modified or replaced by the new services.

5.3.11 Table 5.2 therefore lists all the possible individual paths for Dunbar given the working assumptions. In practice not all of these will run. The trains in bold signify trains that can turn back at Dunbar within the existing timetable and infrastructure, those highlighted and in bold signify trains that would be practical to operate thus giving an even service interval with existing Dunbar services.

Table 5.2 Potential Edinburgh - Dunbar Service Paths

  • Up to 17 northbound services (excluding existing direct services which are shown in italics)
Origin Start time (hh:mm:ss) Destination Arrival Time (hh:mm:ss) Journey Time (hh:mm:ss)
Dunbar 07:23:30 Edinburgh 07:58:59 00:35:29
Dunbar 08:17:00 Edinburgh 08:52:29 00:35:29
Dunbar 09:38:30 Edinburgh 10:13:59 00:35:29
Dunbar 10:03:00 Edinburgh 10:38:29 00:35:29
Dunbar 10:49:00 Edinburgh 11:15:29 00:26:00
Dunbar 11:14:00 Edinburgh 11:49:29 00:35:29
Dunbar 12:13:30 Edinburgh 12:48:59 00:35:29
Dunbar 12:50:00 Edinburgh 13:16:00 00:26:00
Dunbar 13:16:30 Edinburgh 13:54:59 00:38:29
Dunbar 14:13:30 Edinburgh 14:48:59 00:35:29
Dunbar 15:05:00 Edinburgh 15:36:00 00:31:00
Dunbar 15:16:30 Edinburgh 15:51:59 00:35:29
Dunbar 16:33:00 Edinburgh 17:08:29 00:35:29
Dunbar 17:02:00 Edinburgh 17:28:00 00:26:00
Dunbar 17:34:00 Edinburgh 18:09:29 00:35:29
Dunbar 18:17:00 Edinburgh 18:54:29 00:37:29
Dunbar 19:16:30 Edinburgh 19:51:59 00:35:29
Dunbar 19:31:30 Edinburgh 20:06:59 00:35:29
Dunbar 20:17:30 Edinburgh 20:52:59 00:35:29
Dunbar 21:34:00 Edinburgh 22:09:29 00:35:29
Dunbar 23:16:30 Edinburgh 23:51:59 00:35:29
  • Up to 23 southbound services (excluding existing direct services which are shown in italics)
Origin Start time (hh:mm:ss) Destination Arrival Time (hh:mm:ss) Journey Time (hh:mm:ss)
Edinburgh 05:49:00 Dunbar 06:21:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 06:38:00 Dunbar 07:10:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 07:38:00 Dunbar 08:10:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 08:38:00 Dunbar 09:10:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 08:58:00 Dunbar 09:30:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 09:36:00 Dunbar 10:08:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 10:13:00 Dunbar 10:38:00 00:25:00
Edinburgh 11:00:00 Dunbar 11:32:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 11:36:00 Dunbar 12:08:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 12:11:00 Dunbar 12:36:00 00:25:00
Edinburgh 12:39:00 Dunbar 13:11:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 13:11:00 Dunbar 13:43:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 13:36:00 Dunbar 14:08:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 14:11:00 Dunbar 14:36:00 00:25:00
Edinburgh 14:39:00 Dunbar 15:11:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 16:14:00 Dunbar 16:46:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 16:33:00 Dunbar 16:58:00 00:25:00
Edinburgh 18:36:00 Dunbar 19:08:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 18:08:30 Dunbar 18:40:41 00:32:11
Edinburgh 19:05:00 Dunbar 19:37:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 19:18:00 Dunbar 19:50:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 19:35:00 Dunbar 20:07:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 20:30:00 Dunbar 21:02:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 21:07:00 Dunbar 21:39:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 21:38:00 Dunbar 22:10:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 21:58:00 Dunbar 22:30:11 00:32:11
Edinburgh 22:38:00 Dunbar 23:10:11 00:32:11

5.3.12 Table 5.3 lists all possible individual paths for Berwick given the working assumptions. In practice not all of these will run. The trains in bold signify trains that can turn back at Berwick within the existing timetable and infrastructure, those highlighted and in bold signify trains that would be practical to operate and give an even service interval.

Table 5.3 Potential Edinburgh - Berwick-upon-Tweed Service Paths

  • Up to 15 northbound services
Origin Start time (hh:mm:ss) Destination Arrival Time (hh:mm:ss) Journey Time (hh:mm:ss)
Berwick-upon-Tweed 06:57:00 Edinburgh 07:59:00 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 07:50:00 Edinburgh 08:52:00 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 09:12:00 Edinburgh 10:14:00 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 10:47:30 Edinburgh 11:49:30 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 11:47:00 Edinburgh 12:49:00 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 12:50:00 Edinburgh 13:55:00 01:05:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 13:47:00 Edinburgh 14:49:00 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 14:50:00 Edinburgh 15:52:00 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 16:07:00 Edinburgh 17:09:00 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 17:07:00 Edinburgh 18:09:00 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 18:50:00 Edinburgh 19:52:00 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 19:05:00 Edinburgh 20:07:00 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 19:51:00 Edinburgh 20:53:00 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 21:08:00 Edinburgh 22:10:00 01:02:00
Berwick-upon-Tweed 22:50:00 Edinburgh 23:52:00 01:02:00
  • Up to 18 southbound services
Origin Start time (hh:mm:ss) Destination Arrival Time (hh:mm:ss) Journey Time (hh:mm:ss)
Edinburgh 05:48:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 06:45:52 00:57:52
Edinburgh 07:38:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 08:35:52 00:57:52
Edinburgh 08:38:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 09:35:52 00:57:52
Edinburgh 08:58:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 09:55:52 00:57:52
Edinburgh 09:36:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 10:34:13 00:58:13
Edinburgh 11:00:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 11:57:22 00:57:22
Edinburgh 12:39:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 13:36:22 00:57:22
Edinburgh 13:11:30 Berwick-upon-Tweed 14:08:52 00:57:22
Edinburgh 13:35:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 14:32:22 00:57:22
Edinburgh 14:39:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 15:36:22 00:57:22
Edinburgh 16:08:30 Berwick-upon-Tweed 17:05:52 00:57:22
Edinburgh 18:35:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 19:32:22 00:57:22
Edinburgh 19:05:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 20:02:22 00:57:22
Edinburgh 19:18:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 20:15:22 00:57:22
Edinburgh 19:35:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 20:32:22 00:57:22
Edinburgh 21:11:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 22:08:22 00:57:22
Edinburgh 21:58:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 22:55:22 00:57:22
Edinburgh 22:38:00 Berwick-upon-Tweed 23:35:22 00:57:22

Table 5.4 Potential Edinburgh - Newcastle Semi-Fast Service Paths

  • Up to 15 northbound services
Origin Start time (hh:mm:ss) Destination Arrival Time (hh:mm:ss) Journey Time (hh:mm:ss)
Newcastle 06:25:00 Edinburgh 08:00:29 01:35:29
Newcastle 07:00:00 Edinburgh 08:52:33 01:52:33
Newcastle 08:27:00 Edinburgh 10:03:30 01:36:30
Newcastle 10:04:00 Edinburgh 11:39:29 01:35:29
Newcastle 11:02:00 Edinburgh 12:37:29 01:35:29
Newcastle 11:58:00 Edinburgh 13:33:29 01:35:29
Newcastle 13:04:00 Edinburgh 14:39:29 01:35:29
Newcastle 14:00:00 Edinburgh 15:36:29 01:36:29
Newcastle 15:32:00 Edinburgh 17:07:29 01:35:29
Newcastle 16:30:00 Edinburgh 18:05:29 01:35:29
Newcastle 18:01:30 Edinburgh 19:36:59 01:35:29
Newcastle 18:58:30 Edinburgh 20:33:59 01:35:29
Newcastle 19:34:00 Edinburgh 21:09:29 01:35:29
Newcastle 20:33:00 Edinburgh 22:09:29 01:36:29
Newcastle 21:26:00 Edinburgh 23:01:29 01:35:29
  • Up to 17 southbound services
Origin Start time (hh:mm:ss) Destination Arrival Time (hh:mm:ss) Journey Time (hh:mm:ss)
Edinburgh 05:51:30 Newcastle 07:29:30 01:38:00
Edinburgh 07:39:00 Newcastle 09:23:30 01:44:30
Edinburgh 08:38:00 Newcastle 10:21:01 01:43:01
Edinburgh 08:58:00 Newcastle 10:36:00 01:38:00
Edinburgh 09:38:00 Newcastle 11:16:00 01:38:00
Edinburgh 11:03:00 Newcastle 12:41:00 01:38:00
Edinburgh 12:40:00 Newcastle 14:26:00 01:46:00
Edinburgh 13:11:30 Newcastle 14:50:00 01:38:30
Edinburgh 13:36:00 Newcastle 15:23:00 01:47:00
Edinburgh 14:40:00 Newcastle 16:21:59 01:41:59
Edinburgh 18:40:00 Newcastle 20:18:00 01:38:00
Edinburgh 19:00:00 Newcastle 20:39:39 01:39:39
Edinburgh 19:18:00 Newcastle 20:56:00 01:38:00
Edinburgh 19:38:00 Newcastle 21:16:00 01:38:00
Edinburgh 21:08:00 Newcastle 22:48:00 01:40:00
Edinburgh 21:38:00 Newcastle 23:16:00 01:38:00
Edinburgh 22:38:00 Newcastle 24:16:00 01:38:00

5.3.13 Table 5.5 below lists most of the current ScotRail and Northern Rail services on the line. It should be noted that the paths reported in Tables 5.2 to 5.4 can be accommodated within the existing structure of services. As such, there would be no immediate need to modify or replace any of these services. However, in developing any full timetable proposition for new services on the line, these services could be reviewed in conjunction with the new paths in terms of the service proposition.

5.3.14 Unique services such as the Chathill service would be retained and have been excluded here.

Table 5.5 Other services - Potentially Modified or Replaced

  • 14 northbound
Origin Start time (hh:mm:ss) Destination Arrival Time (hh:mm:ss) Journey Time (hh:mm:ss) Operator
Newcastle 07:58:00 Morpeth 08:18:07 00:20:07 Northern
Newcastle 09:15:00 Morpeth 09:36:51 00:21:51 Northern
King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 10:06:00 Morpeth 10:37:20 00:31:20 Northern
Dunbar 10:51:00 Edinburgh 11:15:05 00:24:05 ScotRail
King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 11:06:00 Morpeth 11:37:06 00:31:06 Northern
King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 12:06:00 Morpeth 12:37:20 00:31:20 Northern
Dunbar 12:51:00 Edinburgh 13:16:00 00:25:00 ScotRail
King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 13:06:00 Morpeth 13:36:57 00:30:57 Northern
King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 14:06:00 Morpeth 14:37:02 00:31:02 Northern
Dunbar 15:02:00 Edinburgh 15:31:00 00:29:00 ScotRail
King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 15:06:00 Morpeth 15:36:57 00:30:57 Northern
King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 16:06:00 Morpeth 16:37:00 00:31:00 Northern
King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 17:34:00 Morpeth 18:00:46 00:26:46 Northern
King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 18:11:30 Morpeth 18:47:06 00:35:36 Northern
  • 16 southbound
Origin Start time (hh:mm:ss) Destination Arrival Time (hh:mm:ss) Journey Time (hh:mm:ss) Operator
Morpeth 08:49:00 Newcastle 09:13:00 00:24:00 Northern
Morpeth 09:49:00 King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 10:17:00 00:28:00 Northern
Edinburgh 10:13:00 Dunbar 10:38:00 00:25:00 ScotRail
Morpeth 10:49:00 King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 11:17:26 00:28:26 Northern
Morpeth 11:49:00 King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 12:17:00 00:28:00 Northern
Edinburgh 12:11:00 Dunbar 12:35:59 00:24:59 ScotRail
Morpeth 12:49:00 King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 13:17:00 00:28:00 Northern
Morpeth 13:49:00 King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 14:17:00 00:28:00 Northern
Edinburgh 14:11:00 Dunbar 14:36:43 00:25:43 ScotRail
Morpeth 14:49:00 King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 15:17:00 00:28:00 Northern
Morpeth 15:49:00 King Edward Bridge (Metrocentre) 16:17:00 00:28:00 Northern
Morpeth 16:49:00 Newcastle 17:13:00 00:24:00 Northern
Morpeth 18:26:00 Newcastle 18:48:02 00:22:02 Northern
Morpeth 19:01:00 Newcastle 19:23:30 00:22:30 Northern
Edinburgh 22:08:00 Dunbar 22:41:00 00:33:00 ScotRail
Morpeth 22:45:00 Newcastle 23:05:00 00:20:00 Northern

5.4 Summary

5.4.1 The detailed RailSys modelling has demonstrated that at range of paths do exist within the post May 2011 timetable to accommodate additional train services, to either Dunbar, Berwick or Newcastle, in addition to existing services.

5.4.2 The next stage is to look at the costs and the benefits associated with introducing these services and the next chapter goes on to consider this.