15 Air Quality 15.1 Introduction 15.2 Approach and Methods 15.3 Baseline Conditions 15.4 Potential Impacts 15.5 Mitigation 15.6 Residual Impacts 15.7 Sensitivity Testing of CO2 Emissions Using Paramics / PHEM Modelling 15.8 References

 

15 Air Quality

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An assessment has been carried out to determine the likely changes in local and regional air quality as a result of the operation of the proposed scheme due to projected changes in traffic movements on the road network. The results of the assessment have been evaluated with reference to the UK Government’s Air Quality Strategy objectives and European Union limit values (set for the protection of human health) and nationally accepted significance criteria.

The traffic-related air pollutants considered were nitrogen oxides, nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter. Nitrogen deposition at designated ecological sites was also assessed. Local air quality impacts of construction are considered separately in Chapter 19 (Disruption Due to Construction).

Baseline air quality conditions were established using existing data provided on the Air Quality in Scotland website (monitoring data), in local authority Air Quality Review and Assessment Reports, and the results of an additional monitoring survey undertaken as part of this assessment.

Air quality monitoring in the vicinity of the proposed scheme shows that nitrogen dioxide concentrations and fine particulate concentrations meet the prescribed air quality standards. There are no Air Quality Management Areas in the vicinity of the proposed scheme.

Impacts of the proposed scheme were assessed for the year of opening (2017) and the design year (2032) using detailed dispersion modelling as agreed with SEPA and the relevant local authorities.

The predicted impacts on local air quality as a result of the proposed scheme are generally very small, therefore no mitigation measures are proposed with respect to operational traffic. It is considered that for the majority of modelled receptors (residential properties) within the study area the impacts of the proposed scheme would be Negligible for all pollutants. However, there are areas in the immediate vicinity of the proposed scheme where air quality impacts would be of Slight to Moderate Adverse significance and other areas (close to the Forth Road Bridge) where impacts would be of Slight Beneficial significance.

There would be some small increases and decreases in the amount and rate of nitrogen deposition at the modelled designated sites. The significance of these changes is assessed in Chapter 10(Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecology).

The assessment of regional air quality shows an increase in total emissions of nitrogen oxides, fine particulate matter and carbon dioxide as a result of the proposed scheme (in both the opening and design years). This is consistent with the increase in vehicle kilometres travelled across the regional assessment study area which drives the increase in total emissions. The increase in carbon dioxide is not significant in global terms of pollutant release and the impact will be insignificant in terms of direct impact on global warming.

An emerging alternative approach to emissions calculations, which can take into account the emissions associated with stop-start traffic conditions, has been used as a supplementary assessment. This supplementary assessment indicates that some of the increase in emissions which would be expected with additional traffic and longer travel distances, is likely to be mitigated with improved scheme design and the implementation of ITS measures, which improve traffic flow and minimise stop-start traffic conditions.

15.1 Introduction

15.1.1 This chapter presents the assessment of the proposed scheme in terms of potential impacts on air quality. The chapter is supported by the following appendix, which is cross-referenced in the text where relevant:

15.1.2 Air quality studies consider levels of airborne pollutants. This chapter outlines relevant air quality management policies and legislation, describes the existing or ‘baseline’ air quality situation and assesses the predicted operational air quality impacts of the proposed scheme. The impacts are considered at both a local and regional level as described further below. Potential air quality impacts during construction are considered separately in Chapter 19 (Disruption Due to Construction).

15.1.3 The Main Crossing would carry the majority of vehicular traffic across the Firth of Forth whereas the Forth Road Bridge would be open for public transport, cyclists and pedestrians only, which constitutes a small proportion of overall traffic. The Main Crossing does not significantly increase the capacity of the road network over the Firth of Forth compared to the Forth Road Bridge and therefore the principal effect of the proposed scheme would generate a shift of traffic from the Forth Road Bridge to the Main Crossing, rather than a significant increase in traffic volumes.

15.1.4 In the area surrounding the proposed scheme, vehicle emissions are the dominant source of air pollution. The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI, 2006) shows that vehicle emissions constitute approximately 60-80% of overall emissions in this area. For this reason, and also because of the nature of the development, the assessment only considers those air pollutants emitted by vehicular traffic that have been identified as being of most concern by the UK Government’s Air Quality Strategy and by UK and EU legislation. The main road traffic pollutants that can lead to poor air quality in relation to human health are oxides of nitrogen (NOx), comprising mainly nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), particularly benzene and 1,3-butadiene, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10). However, local authorities have identified NO2 and PM10 as the key road traffic pollutants of concern within this area of Scotland.

15.1.5 For local air quality the assessment focuses on NO2, NOx, PM10 and PM2.5 (NOx is included in addition to NO2 as NO reacts with oxidants in the air to form NO2, i.e. NO2 concentrations are partially derived from NOx concentrations). Other motor vehicle related pollutants are not of concern as current levels remain well within the relevant air quality standards and are therefore not considered further in this assessment.

15.1.6 Nitrogen deposition on designated ecological sites is also considered within the Stage 3 assessment as per DMRB guidance.

15.1.7 For regional air quality the DMRB also identifies carbon dioxide (CO2)1 as a pollutant of concern, being considered the most important greenhouse gas and is therefore used as the key indicator in relation to effects on climate change. Emissions of CO2 are considered in the regional level assessment in addition to NOx and PM10.

Air Quality Policies, Legislation and Standards

Air Quality Limit Values and Objectives

15.1.8 Air quality limit values and objectives are quality standards for the protection of human health. They can be used (as they are used here) as assessment criteria for determining the significance of any potential changes in local air quality resulting from development (shown in Table 15.1).

15.1.9 European Union (EU) air quality policy sets the framework for national policy (i.e. at a Scottish level). The ‘framework’ EU Directive on Ambient Air Quality Assessment and Management came into force in September 1996 (Directive 96/62/EC) and is intended as a strategic framework for tackling air quality consistently, through setting EU-wide air quality limit values in four daughter directives, superseding and extending existing European legislation. The four daughter directives have been placed into national legislation. These EU limit values have been consolidated in the Air Quality Standards (Scotland) Regulations 2007. A new EU Directive (Directive 2008/50/EC) has more recently been announced that merges the four daughter directives into a single directive on air quality. The new Directive introduces a new limit value for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) but does not change the existing air quality standards. This is yet to be transposed into UK policy (although is considered in this assessment).

15.1.10 In a parallel process at the UK level, the Environment Act was published in 1995. The Act required the preparation of a national air quality strategy setting air quality standards and objectives for specified pollutants and outlining measures to be taken by local authorities (through the system of Local Air Quality Management (LAQM)) and by others ‘to work in pursuit of the achievement’ of these objectives. A National Air Quality Strategy (NAQS) was published in 1997 and subsequently reviewed and revised in 2000, and an addendum to the Strategy published in 2002. The current Strategy is The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, 2007. The objectives which are relevant to local air quality management have been set into Regulations (Air Quality (Scotland) Regulations 2000 and Air Quality (Scotland) Amendment Regulations 2002).

15.1.11 Table 15.1 shows the EU air quality limit values and national air quality objectives for the pollutants of relevance to this study.

Table 15.1: EU Air Quality Limit Values and National Air Quality Objectives for Relevant Pollutants

Pollutant

Averaging Period

Objective/Limit Value

Compliance Date

Basis

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2)

1 hour mean

200 µg/m3, not to be exceeded more than 18 times a year (99.8th percentile)

31 Dec 2005

Scotland

01 Jan 2010

EU

Annual mean

40 µg/m3

31 Dec 2005

Scotland

01 Jan 2010

EU

NOx*

Annual mean

30 µg/m3

31 December 2000

Scotland

19 July 2001

EU

Particulate matter (PM10)

Daily mean

50 µg/m3, not to be exceeded more than 7 times a year (98.08th percentile)

01 Dec 2004

Scotland

Not specified

EU

Annual mean

40 µg/m3

31 Dec 2004

Scotland

Not specified

EU

18 µg/m3

31 Dec 2010

Scotland

Particulate matter (PM2.5)

Annual mean

12 µg/m3

2020

Scotland

*only applies to those parts of the UK >20km from an agglomeration (an urban area with a population of >250,000); and >5km from Part A processes, motorways and built up areas of > 5000 people

Planning Policy

15.1.12 The key sectors of relevance to planning and air quality are transport, industry and energy, since these are the main sources of air pollution. National planning policy is set out in Scottish Planning Policies (SPP), with SPP 17 ‘Planning for Transport’ being relevant to air quality assessments of new transport infrastructure. The Scottish Government has also published Planning Advice Notes (PANs) of which PAN 51 ‘Planning, Environmental Protection and Regulation’ and PAN 75 ‘Planning for Transport’ make reference to air quality.

15.1.13 PAN51 provides government guidance on pollution control for local authorities when drawing up their development plans and making decisions on individual development applications.

15.1.14 While relevant to air quality, PAN 75 focuses on the promotion of sustainable transport solutions associated with new developments (e.g. applying maximum car parking standards, use of green travel plans etc) and therefore are more relevant to building-type developments rather than road schemes such as the proposed scheme.

15.2 Approach and Methods

Overall Approach

15.2.1 The assessment of air quality is made in terms of the difference between the air quality that would be likely with the proposed scheme (the ‘Do-Something’ scenario) and without the proposed scheme (the ‘Do-Minimum’ scenario) for both the anticipated year of opening (2017) and the design year 15 years after opening (2032), which represents the worst-case year with regards to traffic flows. The future Do-Minimum scenario assumes that the Forth Road Bridge is still in operation. In acknowledgement of the uncertainty over the future viability of the Forth Road Bridge, qualitative assessment of possible alternative Do-Minimum scenarios is provided separately in Appendix A15.1.

15.2.2 In order to allow comparison of future year pollutant concentrations with existing levels, pollutant concentrations have also been calculated for the 2005 base year. The Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS:05a) was used to establish the baseline and future year traffic composition. It is considered that using 2005 as base year is the best base year for which data are currently available and it is considered that it provides an acceptable proxy for the baseline and forecast traffic situations for the purposes of this assessment. In order to account for the M9 Spur extension in the assessed base case, 2005 traffic flows were distributed along the spur road and associated road links using the same percentage traffic split as in 2017. Further details on traffic data limitations are provided in the ‘Limitations to Assessment’ section.

15.2.3 The DMRB Stage 3 air quality assessment of the proposed scheme consists of the following components:

  • a review of the existing air quality situation;
  • collation of road traffic data and scoping out of road links outside the local study area with changes in traffic flows or speeds too small to influence air quality;
  • an assessment of the changes in local air quality at representative receptors arising from the operation of the proposed scheme, as a result of the changing traffic;
  • preparation of contour plots to determine the change in concentrations as a result of the proposed scheme across the local study area;
  • an assessment of the changes in nitrogen deposition at designated ecological sites arising from the operation of the proposed scheme as a result of traffic flows on new carriageway and changes to traffic flows on the adjoining road network; and
  • an assessment of the regional impacts of the proposed scheme on pollutant levels, as a result of traffic flows on new carriageway and changes to traffic flows on the adjoining road network.

15.2.4 The methodology used for the Stage 3 air quality assessment is based on DMRB Volume 11, Section 3, Part 1: HA207/07 (Highways Agency et al., 2007). This document provides a three-stage appraisal methodology, using scoping, screening and detailed modelling techniques where appropriate to allow comparison of pollutant concentrations with the relevant EU limit values and Scotland air quality objectives (shown in Table 15.1).

15.2.5 An assessment has been made of the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 at receptors near to the roads and junctions that form part of and are affected by the proposed scheme. Receptors were selected as those in closest proximity to the road at heavily trafficked road sections, at junctions where congestion or a reduction in speed may be expected and at sensitive areas such as designated ecological sites (as described in paragraphs 15.3.27 to 15.3.28). In addition, contour plots have been produced for the local study area, which illustrate pollutant levels at a 5m by 5m grid resolution.

Study Area

15.2.6 The study area for the local air quality assessment covered an area of approximately 9km (east-west) by 18km (north-south) and is shown on Figures 15.1. This includes the proposed scheme and the vast majority of affected road links defined by the application of DMRB criteria to the traffic data outputs from the traffic model (as described in paragraph 15.2.13). There are a limited number of road links that lie outside the study area but meet the DMRB screening criteria. In order to provide a robust assessment, an additional assessment was carried out for these affected road links where they are in close proximity to sensitive receptors. Figure 15.2 shows screened in links for both 2017 and 2032 as well as areas that were assessed in addition to the main study area.

15.2.7 The study area for nitrogen deposition on designated ecological sites was 200m either side of the proposed scheme and affected road links as per the study area for local air quality assessment.

15.2.8 The extent of the study area for the regional air quality assessment was governed by the extent of the transport model (Transport Model for Scotland; TMfS:05a, as explained in Chapter 4(The Proposed Scheme)). Figure 15.3 shows the coverage of the modelled road network and thus the extent of the study area for the regional assessment. Whilst it is likely that the accuracy of the transport model decreases at road links far away from the core modelled area (e.g. links in London), the accuracy, in absolute terms is less critical than the forecast relative difference. The regional assessment is concerned with establishing the difference in total emissions comparing a scenario without the proposed scheme with a scenario incorporating the proposed scheme and hence links unaffected by the proposed scheme, whilst still included, would not contribute to the outcome of the assessment.

Baseline Conditions

15.2.9 Baseline conditions were assessed largely by desk study. Air Quality Review and Assessment documents from relevant local authorities were reviewed and existing local air quality established using information and published monitoring data from the reviewed reports and the UK Air Quality Archive.

15.2.10 Monitored background pollutant concentrations for the years 2005 and 2008 were obtained from the Edinburgh St. Leonards monitoring station and used in the dispersion model as described in paragraph 15.2.22.

15.2.11 Also, a NO2 diffusion tube survey was carried out by Jacobs Arup over the period of March 2008 to February 2009 to obtain NO2 concentration levels at strategically chosen locations (shown on Figures 15.4). The results of the survey complement monitoring data retrieved from Air Quality Review and Assessment documents and were used in the model evaluation process.

Air Quality Model Inputs

Road Traffic Data and Scoping

15.2.12 Road traffic data from the project transport model were used in the atmospheric pollutant dispersion modelling, and were collated in the form of annual average daily (24 hour) traffic flows (AADT), daily average speed and percentage of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) for the existing road network for the base year (2005, with subsequent amendments to the road network for the future assessment years of 2017 and 2032 to include the M9 Spur extension (as described in paragraph 15.2.51: Limitations to Assessment). AADT flows have been used rather than diurnal traffic flows as this represents a worse case scenario. This is because traffic flows are averaged over a 24 hour period, resulting in higher than typical flows during stable and calm conditions (i.e. during the night and early morning hours) and thus resulting in worse case annual mean pollutant concentrations. The base year of 2005 was used for the air quality assessment as this is the base year for the project transport model. Future year traffic data (Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios) include traffic generated by committed developments within the transport study area.

15.2.13 The data were firstly interrogated to scope-in sections of road (links) where potential changes in traffic flows could influence local air quality significantly using the following DMRB thresholds (i.e. road links meeting any of these criteria are identified as ‘affected links’ and scoped into the assessment):

  • road alignment would change by 5m or more; or
  • daily traffic flows would change by 1,000 AADT or more, or
  • Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) flows would change by 200 AADT or more; or
  • daily average speed would change by 10 km/hr or more; or
  • peak hour speed would change by 20 km/hr or more.

15.2.14 As described in paragraph 15.2.6, using the DMRB criteria aided the identification of the extent of the local study area. All road links within the local air quality study area for which traffic data were available (shown on Figures 15.1) were then included in the detailed dispersion model independent of whether or not they meet the DMRB criteria listed above.

15.2.15 To take account of junction delays, traffic speeds on road links around major junctions which have sensitive receptors in their vicinity, were reduced to 20kph. Speeds along all other road links were taken from the outputs of the transport model.

Industrial Sources

15.2.16 During consultation with SEPA and the relevant local authorities it was agreed to include emissions from Longannet Power Station in the dispersion modelling, this is located near Kincardine, approximately 10km to the west of the local study area. This is the biggest single industrial source in the vicinity of the proposed scheme. It was considered that emissions from other industrial installations in the vicinity of the proposed scheme (e.g. Grangemouth) would not contribute significant amounts of NOx or particulates within the local air quality study area and in any case would be included in the background pollution data included in the modelling (as described in paragraph 15.2.22).

15.2.17 Information on annual emissions from the coal-fired power station was obtained from the Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory (SPRI) (SEPA, 2009). Stack height, diameter, efflux velocity and temperature were obtained in consultation with SEPA and the owners/operators (Scottish Power Limited). Table 15.2 lists model inputs for the power station. It should be noted that it is not the objective of the assessment to assess the impacts of the industrial source explicitly. The contribution from Longannet Power Station to overall pollutant levels is therefore included in the pollutant concentrations as presented in the results section of this chapter.

Table 15.2: Model Inputs for Longannet Power Station

Parameter

Model Input

Stack height

183m

Stack diameter

4 x 7.6m

Efflux velocity

13m/s

Temperature

134ºC

NOx emissions

605.2 g/s

PM10 emissions

26.2 g/s

PM2.5 emissions

11.8 g/s

Changes in Local Air Quality

Assessment Methodology

15.2.18 To assess the impact that traffic generated by the proposed scheme may have on local air quality, concentrations of traffic-related pollutants were forecast using dispersion modelling and compared to appropriate air quality standards (objectives and limit values). The following method applies to both the local air quality assessment and the additional assessment outside the local study area (the latter still forms part of the local air quality assessment).

15.2.19 Pollutant concentrations were forecast using the Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System ’ADMS-Roads‘, which is a widely used model for assessing the air quality impacts of traffic-related emissions. Use of ADMS-Roads for this assessment was agreed with SEPA and the local authorities during consultation. The model calculates the dispersion of pollutants released from industrial and road traffic sources. For the purpose of this assessment, ADMS-Roads was used in conjunction with a Geographical Information System (GIS), ArcGIS.

15.2.20 ADMS-Roads has been used with the following inputs:

  • road traffic flows, speed and %HGV (to derive transport related emission factors);
  • stack height, diameter, efflux velocity, temperature and emission rates for NOx, PM10 and PM2.5 of Longannet Power Station;
  • background pollutant concentrations;
  • meteorological conditions; and
  • topographical features, including surface roughness (the surface roughness value is selected based on the predominant land use in the model area).

15.2.21 The model calculates one-hour average concentrations for each hour during the year. The following model parameters and input files were used along with the industrial source and traffic data detailed above to run the model and predict pollutant concentrations for scenarios with and without the proposed scheme.

Background Pollutant File

15.2.22 It was agreed with SEPA and local authorities to use hourly pollutant background data from the Edinburgh St. Leonards urban background monitoring station which is the nearest monitoring station for which the required background data are available. This continuous monitoring station is located in Edinburgh at NGR 326265, 673136. Due to the nature of the monitoring site (urban background) it is possible that there is a certain degree of double counting of the road source contribution within the background component. However, the use of this monitoring site was considered to be most appropriate for the assessment. For the base year assessment, concentrations recorded and collated for 2005 were used to create the background pollutant file. For future year scenarios, concentrations recorded in 2008 at the Edinburgh St. Leonards monitoring site were factored based on the year of assessment and for the years 2017 and 2032 respectively using the method described in the Technical Guidance LAQM.TG(09) (Defra, 2009) in which background concentrations were calculated using a factor derived from mapped background concentrations (available on www.airquality.co.uk). As mapped background concentrations are only available to 2020, the 2020 background concentrations were used in calculations for the 2032 assessment year. Given that background concentrations are generally predicted to decrease with time (due to predicted improvements in technology), using the 2020 background concentrations is considered to allow a robust assessment of potential air quality impacts resulting from the proposed scheme.

15.2.23 Table 15.3 shows the annual average concentrations recorded at the Edinburgh St Leonards urban background monitoring station in 2005 and 2008. Projections for 2017 and 2032 (in accordance with the above described method) are also provided. It is noted that NOx and NO2 concentrations recorded at the Edinburgh St Leonards site in 2008 are noticeably higher than those recorded in 2005, which is further discussed in Appendix A15.1 (Air Quality Model Evaluation).

Table 15.3: Annual Average Background Concentrations (µg/m3) at Edinburgh St Leonards Monitoring Site

Pollutant

2005

2008

2017

2032

NOx

36.4

53.5

37.7

35.3

NO2

24.8

30.9

23.1

21.8

PM10

18.4

15.3

13.9

13.7

15.2.24 In order to include PM2.5 concentrations in the background file, a PM2.5:PM10 ratio of 0.67 was assumed. This assumption is based on results of a study carried out by AEA for the Scottish Government (AEA, 2009).

Meteorology

15.2.25 Hourly sequential observation data were collated for wind speed, wind direction, temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and cloud cover from observations made at Turnhouse meteorological station (operated by the Met Office as part of a national network of sites), approximately 7km south of the study area.

15.2.26 As requested by SEPA and local authorities, meteorological data from a weather station maintained by ExxonMobil (located at the ExxonMobil chemical site at the Fife Ethylene Plant in Mossmorran, Cowdenbeath) were originally obtained as there was concern that the Turnhouse data would not be representative for coastal locations, which are prone to experience higher wind speeds. ExxonMobil provided wind speed and direction data, although noted that the data had not been ratified and that they use Turnhouse data for dispersion modelling. As a result, a sensitivity analysis using different sets of meteorological data was carried out, which showed that substituting Turnhouse data with ExxonMobil data did not give worse results. As a consequence, it was decided to use all data from the Turnhouse meteorological station to give a worst-case scenario.

15.2.27 A further sensitivity analysis was undertaken to identify which meteorological year would give highest pollutant concentrations at a number of randomly selected receptor locations (monitoring sites). The study showed that 2008 data gave worst case (i.e. highest) results at the majority of selected receptors. Therefore, meteorological data from 2008 were used in future year assessments. Table 15.4 shows the results of the sensitivity analysis for the selection of the meteorological year. The numbers in bold represent highest concentrations.

Table 15.4: Results of Meteorology Sensitivity Analysis – Annual Mean NO2 Concentrations (µg/m3)

Receptor

Grid Reference

2005

2006

2007

2008

1 Ferry Barns Cresent

312645, 680603

28.7

28.3

28.8

28.6

2 Selvage Street

312247, 683184

30.0

29.8

30.1

30.2

3 Carnegie Drive

309019, 687632

30.0

30.2

30.4

30.5

4 Rumblingwell

307866, 688231

28.5

28.5

28.7

28.8

5 Aytoun Grove

308328, 688426

27.4

27.5

27.6

27.5

6 Barrie Street

308381, 688251

27.6

27.7

27.8

27.7

7 Appin Crescent

309882, 687713

37.3

39.1

38.8

39.5

8 Appin Crescent

309882, 687720

32.7

34.1

33.8

34.1

9 Appin Crescent

309885, 687716

34.6

36.3

35.9

36.4

10 Admiralty Road

312103, 683439

30.6

30.5

30.7

31.0

11 Admiralty Road

312140, 683439

30.0

29.9

30.1

30.4

12 St Leonard School

309770, 686895

27.7

27.6

27.7

27.7

Other Model Parameters

15.2.28 The oxidation of NO to form NO2 is a complex process that is dependant on several factors, including the relative availability of these two gases, ozone, volatile organic compounds, sunlight, temperature and residence time. The ADMS-Roads model includes a Chemical Reaction Scheme model which accounts for these factors with reference to local emissions and background contributions. The Chemical Reaction Scheme model was used for this assessment.

15.2.29 The extent of mechanical turbulence (and hence, mixing) in the atmosphere is affected by the roughness of the surface (i.e. ground) over which the air is passing. Typical surface roughness values range from 1m (for cities, forests and industrial) to 0.001m (for water or sandy deserts). In this assessment, the general land-use in the local study area can be described as open suburbia with a corresponding surface roughness of 0.5m.

15.2.30 A measure of stability of the atmosphere is the ’Monin-Obukhov length‘. A Monin-Obukhov length of 30m was considered to be most appropriate for this assessment, as this represents mixed urban areas.

15.2.31 The ArcMap package was used to generate pollution contours and for subsequent spatial analysis, including calculation of the extent of each habitat type impacted within statutory designated nature reserves.

Local Air Quality Receptors

15.2.32 Receptors (specified points included in the air quality model) were generated as follows:

  • a regular grid of receptors at 100m spacings;
  • additional gridding to increase density of receptors along road sources (using ‘intelligent gridding’, a function within ADMS-Roads to enable the modelling of a wide area with a large number of roads);
  • specific receptor points that were identified within the study area, including residential properties and other sensitive receptors, such as schools or hospitals which are closest to the road links, predicted to experience the greatest change in local air quality as a result of the proposed scheme (i.e. focussed around the proposed scheme and main access routes where greatest change in traffic flows is predicted to occur); and
  • residential properties along road links where greatest change in traffic flows is predicted to occur and where the highest concentrations of road traffic pollutants would be expected (e.g. around junctions, due to congestion).

15.2.33 Fifty-one specific receptor points were selected for the assessment to calculate potential impacts of the proposed scheme at various sensitive locations. Criteria as described in paragraphs 15.2.5 and 15.2.32 were used to determine the most representative receptor locations. Table 15.5 and Figures 15.1 show receptor locations in the northern (N) and southern (S) study areas for the Stage 3 assessment. In addition, contour plots are provided showing pollutant concentrations at a 5m x 5m grid, thus covering all residential properties within the local study area.

Table 15.5: Local Air Quality Receptor Locations

Receptor

Grid Ref

Location Details

R1 (N)

314001, 688940

18 Westfield Grove, Crossgates

R2 (N)

314510, 688709

Ardshallah, Inverkeithing Road, Crossgates

R3 (N)

312995, 688503

18 Sandybank, Halbeath

R4 (N)

314016, 688782

119 Dunfermline Rd, Crossgates

R5 (N)

314133, 688748

Crossgates Primary School, Crossgates

R6 (N)

311505, 687868

Touch Primary School, Dunfermline

R7 (N)

311822, 687250

St Columba's High School, Dunfermline

R8 (N)

311922, 686179

71 Meldrum Court, Dunfermline

R9 (N)

313336, 685754

Mid Duloch Farm, Inverkeithing

R10 (N)

312541, 680687

Ferry Craig House, North Queensferry

R11 (N)

312630, 680717

15 Ferry Barns Court, North Queensferry

R12 (N)

312483, 681073

St Margaret’s Hope Lodge, North Queensferry

R13 (N)

312667, 681880

24 Ferry Hills Road, North Queensferry

R14 (N)

312440, 682421

18 Whinny Hill Crescent, Inverkeithing

R15 (N)

312751, 684649

The Bungalow, Dunfermline

R16 (N)

312423, 683997

25 Park Lea, Rosyth

R17 (N)

313618, 683518

Inverkeithing High School, Hillend Road

R18 (N)

313299, 683470

39 Burleigh Crescent, Inverkeithing

R19 (N)

312302, 683570

25 Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

R20 (N)

311930, 683389

18 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

R21 (N)

312193, 683042

114 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

R22 (N)

312451, 682686

5 Mucklehill Park, Inverkeithing

R23 (N)

311230, 684444

231 Queensferry Road, Rosyth

R24 (N)

314404, 683811

7 Letham Hill Way, Hillend

R25 (N)

312378, 681008

St Margaret's Hope, North Queensferry

R26 (S)

312442, 678387

14 Farquhar Terrace, South Queensferry

R27 (S)

312900, 678391

Plewlands House, South Queensferry

R28 (S)

312381, 678005

45 Stoneyflats Crescent, South Queensferry

R29 (S)

312997, 677546

10 Scotstoun Green, South Queensferry

R30 (S)

311543, 677916

68 Echline Drive, South Queensferry

R31 (S)

311317, 678514

7 Linnmill, South Queensferry

R32 (S)

312620, 677132

12 Dundas Home Farm

R33 (S)

309177, 677649

11 Main Street, Newton

R34 (S)

311884, 674153

39 Cotlaws, Kirkliston

R35 (S)

309244, 675089

1 Beatly Road, Winchburgh

R36 (S)

311923, 673514

2 Millrig Cottages, Kirkliston

R37 (S)

312466, 674932

2 Newmains Road, Kirkliston

R38 (S)

312556, 674578

35 Main Street, Kirkliston

R39 (S)

311670, 678165

15 Springfield Terrace, South Queensferry

R40 (S)

308792, 677447

1 Winchburgh Road, Winchburgh

R41 (S)

312885, 677081

Newbigging Lodge, Dundas Home Farm

R42 (S)

312169, 677705

21 Long Crook, South Queensferry

R43 (S)

314275, 677370

16 Main Street, Dalmeny

R44 (S)

313018, 672669

61 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

R45 (S)

308851, 675000

16 Bennet Wood Terrace, Winchburgh

R46 (S)

314338, 676101

Standingstone Cottage

R47 (S)

311771, 677834

21 Echline, South Queensferry

R48 (S)

312955, 678047

Queensferry Primary School, South Queensferry

R49 (S)

312036, 678110

Echline Primary School, South Queensferry

R50 (S)

313228, 672605

104 Glasgow Road, Newbridge
R51 (S) 311446, 678603 Inchgarvie House

15.2.34 Additional receptors were chosen for the assessment of areas outside the local study area (within the additional assessment areas shown on Figure 15.2). Table 15.6 shows receptors used in the additional assessment. These were again selected using the criteria described in paragraphs 15.2.5 and 15.2.32.

Table 15.6: Additional Local Air Quality Receptor Locations (Outside Local Study Area)

Receptor

Grid Ref

Location Details

Linlithgow

R1 (Lin)

299267, 677585

1 Clark Avenue

R2 (Lin)

299317, 677695

Loch House

R3 (Lin)

298955, 677635

30 Clark Avenue

R4 (Lin)

299427, 677580

74 St Ninians Road

R5 (Lin)

299624, 677584

6 Parkhead Road

Polmont

R1 (Pol)

294018, 678901

32 Eastcroft Drive

R2 (Pol)

293755, 679060

41 Orchard Grove

R3 (Pol)

294250, 678772

4 Eastcroft Drive

Kincardine

R1 (Kin)

292949, 687322

45 Keith Street

R2 (Kin)

292957, 687283

31 Silver Street

R3 (Kin)

292909, 687328

26 Forth Street

R4 (Kin)

293031, 687248

13 Orchard Grove

Kelty

R1 (Kel)

313462, 693962

23 Blair Drive

R2 (Kel)

313434, 694013

38 Clentry Crescent

R3 (Kel)

313295, 694381

1 Dullomuir Drive

R4 (Kel)

313371, 694116

16 Clentry Crescent

Cowdenbeath

R1 (Cow)

316842, 691087

Birnie Ridge, 2 Bridge Street

R2 (Cow)

316847, 691161

3 Paterson Lane

Edinburgh

R1 (Edb)

318005, 675293

624 Queensferry Road

R2 (Edb)

318545, 674990

564 Queensferry Road

R3 (Edb)

318621, 674917

7 Maybury Road

R4 (Edb)

318015, 675197

20 Strathalmond Green

R5 (Edb)

318540, 674940

10 Maybury Road

R6 (Edb)

319627, 674985

453 Queensferry Road

R7 (Edb)

320004, 675052

1c Clermiston Road North

R8 (Edb)

320531, 675108

393 Queensferry Road

R9 (Edb)

319074, 674217

224 Drum Brae Drive

R10 (Edb)

320204, 674516

66 Clermiston Road North

Model Evaluation

15.2.35 To verify the model, additional receptor points were chosen at locations of air quality monitoring stations, operated by the local authorities as well as by Jacobs Arup (as described in paragraphs 15.3.21 to 15.3.26 for further details of the air quality monitoring sites). The modelled pollutant concentrations were then compared to the observed pollutant concentrations. A total of 21 locations were used in the model evaluation. Figures 15.4 show the location of monitoring locations which were included in the verification process. Details on model evaluation are provided in Appendix A15.1.

Population Exposure

15.2.36 An assessment of population exposure was carried out by establishing the number of sensitive receptors that are predicted to experience a change in pollutant concentrations greater than 1% of the relevant air quality objective and limit value for NO2, PM10 and PM2.5.

15.2.37 The ArcGIS package was used to generate difference contours covering the local study area. The contours consist of 5m by 5m raster grids, with each grid containing the calculated pollutant concentration value. Address point data were overlain with the difference contour plot to enable a count of sensitive receptors that experience a change in concentration of 0.4µg/m3 for NO2, 0.18µg/m3 for PM10 and 0.12µg/m3 for PM2.5 respectively.

Changes in Nitrogen Deposition

Assessment Methodology

15.2.38 The DMRB states that any nature conservation sites (‘designated sites’) and their characteristics should be identified as part of the air quality assessment. The designated sites that should be considered for an assessment are those for which the designated features are sensitive to air pollutants, either directly or indirectly, and which could be adversely affected by the effect of air pollution on vegetation. Types of conservation sites to be included are Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) (Sites of Community Importance (SCI) or candidate Special Areas of Conservation (cSAC)), Special Protection Areas (SPA), potential Special Protection Areas (pSPA), Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) and Ramsar sites. Local designations such as Sites of Importance for Nature Conservation (SINC) are excluded from this assessment.

15.2.39 The DMRB includes a calculation procedure combining background air quality data with road traffic emissions to derive nitrogen deposition rates at each receptor. The years of assessment were for the baseline situation in 2005 (based on 2005 traffic data), 2017 and 2032, both with and without the proposed scheme. The results were compared directly to the critical load for calcareous grassland, saltmarsh fens, and neutral grassland which are the predominant sensitive habitats found in the SSSIs within the study area. The critical load for the deposition of nitrogen represents the exposure below which there should be no significant harmful effect for the assessed habitat, according to current knowledge.

15.2.40 Assessment of designated sites within the study area was carried out in accordance with the methodology outlined in Annex F of the DMRB guidance which assesses the traffic related dry deposition of nitrogen (in kilograms per hectare per year). This requires that annual mean NO2 concentrations are calculated for a transect up to 200m away from each of the affected roads (roads that have been scoped in) within or near a designated site. The calculations were carried out for 2017 and 2032 with and without the proposed scheme at 50m intervals, starting from the closest point from the road that lies within or in close proximity to the site. When predicting future deposition rates, background nitrogen deposition rates (shown in Table 15.13) were reduced by 2% per year in accordance with DMRB guidance. This is because of the predicted improvements in vehicle technologies and abatement equipment.

15.2.41 In addition to nitrogen deposition, NOx concentrations were calculated using ADMS-Roads at the assessed designated sites and compared to relevant objectives (shown in Table 15.1). High concentrations of NOx can have an adverse effect on vegetation, including leaf or needle damage and reduced growth.

Nitrogen Deposition Receptors

15.2.42 There are several designated nature conservation sites within the local study area. Those included in the nitrogen deposition assessment were the Firth of Forth, Ferry Hills and St. Margaret’s Marsh Sites of Special Scientific Interest (see Chapter 10: Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecology).

15.2.43 The results of the nitrogen deposition and NOx concentration calculations contained within the air quality assessment provide input to the ecological assessment where the impacts of the proposed scheme on the integrity of relevant designated sites, and the significance of those impacts, is discussed in Chapter 10 (Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecology).

Changes in Regional Air Quality

Total Pollutant Emissions

15.2.44 Total emissions of NOx, PM10 and CO2 were calculated for the entire road network covered by the transport model (shown on Figure 15.3), independent of whether or not individual road links met the DMRB criteria. Total vehicle kilometres travelled along each road link were established using ArcGIS (to obtain the link length) and available traffic data. Emission factors were derived using the dataset incorporated in the DMRB worksheets version 1.03c (July 2007). For each road link total pollutant emissions per year were calculated. The emissions calculated for each link were then added to generate the total mass of emissions for each assessed scenario.

Impact Assessment

15.2.45 The National Society for Clean Air (NSCA) guidance (NSCA, 2006) provides an example of how to describe the significance of the impacts predicted from the air quality modelling for the pollutants NO2 and PM10 for local air quality assessments. Tables 15.7 and 15.8 show examples of descriptors for magnitude of change and significance. These significance criteria have been used to assess local air quality impacts. The first step is to identify the descriptor of change in ambient concentrations for NO2 and particulates (PM10 and PM2.5) (shown in Table 15.7) according to the percentage change in annual mean concentrations (for both NO2 and particulates). The descriptor can then be used to assess the impact significance for the two pollutants in relation to changes in the absolute concentration forecast from the modelling with the proposed scheme in place (shown in Table 15.8).

Sensitivity of Receptors

15.2.46 Discrete receptors were identified which would be sensitive to changes in air quality, i.e. schools, hospitals, residential and nature conservation sites as listed in paragraph 15.2.32. In addition, receptor points within 200m of links that meet the DMRB criteria are considered as being potentially ‘susceptible’ to resulting changes in local air quality and representative receptors were therefore included in the quantitative assessment.

Impact Magnitude

15.2.47 Table 15.7 below shows examples of descriptors for magnitude of change.

Table 15.7: Magnitude of Change related to Changes in Ambient Concentrations of NO2 and PM10

Change in Annual Mean NO2/PM10/PM2.5 Concentration

Magnitude of Change

Increase/decrease >25%

Very Large

Increase/decrease 15-25%

Large

Increase/decrease 10-15%

Medium

Increase/decrease 5-10%

Small

Increase/decrease 1-5%

Very Small

Increase/decrease <1%

Extremely Small

Impact Significance

15.2.48 The impact significance descriptors shown in Table 15.8 take account of the magnitude of the change (both increase and decrease) and the absolute concentration in relation to the air quality objective. Particular significance is given to a change that takes the pollutant concentration from below to above the objective or vice versa. This is because of the importance attributed to the objectives in assessing local air quality, as set out in PAN 51 (Scottish Executive, 2006).

Table 15.8: Impact Significance for NO2 and PM10

Absolute Concentration in Relation to Standard

Extremely Small

Very Small

Small

Medium

Large

Very Large

Decrease with scheme

Above Standard with scheme.

Slight beneficial

Slight beneficial

Substantial beneficial

Substantial beneficial

Very substantial beneficial

Very substantial beneficial

Above Standard without scheme. Below with scheme.

Slight beneficial

Moderate beneficial

Substantial beneficial

Substantial beneficial

Very substantial beneficial

Very substantial beneficial

Below Standard without scheme, but not Well Below.

Negligible

Slight beneficial

Slight beneficial

Moderate beneficial

Moderate beneficial

Substantial beneficial

Well Below Standard without scheme.

Negligible

Negligible

Slight beneficial

Slight beneficial

Slight beneficial

Moderate beneficial

Increase with scheme

Above Standard without scheme.

Slight adverse

Slight adverse

Substantial adverse

Substantial adverse

Very substantial adverse

Very substantial adverse

Below Standard without scheme. Above with scheme

Slight adverse

Moderate adverse

Substantial adverse

Substantial adverse

Very substantial adverse

Very substantial adverse

Below Standard with scheme, but not Well Below.

Negligible

Slight adverse

Slight adverse

Moderate adverse

Moderate adverse

Substantial adverse

Well Below Standard with scheme.

Negligible

Negligible

Slight adverse

Slight adverse

Slight adverse

Moderate adverse

Well Below standard = <75% of the standard level.

‘Standard’ in the context of this table relates to specific air quality objective or limit value in question – shown in Table 15.1

15.2.49 With regards to the regional assessment, no formal significance criteria exist for the assessment of total emissions (specifically CO2 emissions) in environmental assessments. The significance of an increase in CO2 emissions can be determined by testing whether the emissions can be balanced (or 'offset') by reducing emissions elsewhere. The common denominator for testing policy measures in this way is cost. The carbon costs of the proposed scheme are presented in the DMRB Stage 3 Scheme Assessment Report, Part C.

15.2.50 Her Majesty's Treasury maintains guidance on appraisal and evaluation in central government (referred to as 'the Green Book'). This states that ‘all new policies, programmes and projects, whether revenue, capital or regulatory, should be subject to comprehensive but proportionate assessment, wherever it is practicable, so as best to promote the public interest. The Green Book presents the techniques and issues that should be considered when carrying out assessments’. The Green Book makes direct reference to Defra guidance on how to value greenhouse gas emissions in government appraisals by determining the shadow price of carbon based on its social and economic cost (Defra, 2008). Carbon pricing for the proposed scheme is reported in the DMRB Stage 3 Scheme Assessment Report, Part C.

Limitations to Assessment

15.2.51 The base year in terms of traffic was taken to be 2005, using TMfS:05a data. 2005 is the base model calibration year. A series of forecast Do-Minimum and reference case scenarios are coded in the model for the future years of 2012, 2017, 2022 and 2027. The reference case models include committed and agreed likely schemes which may affect travel patterns and traffic routing. These include features such as removal of tolls on the Forth Road Bridge and the M9 Spur extension which was completed after 2005 and is included in all forecast models from 2012 onwards. As noted previously, in order to provide a more up-to-date base case, traffic along the M9 Spur extension was included in the base case scenario based on a 2017 traffic distribution. TMfS:05a represents the best base year and forecast data currently available and it is considered that these provide an acceptable proxy for the baseline and forecast traffic situations for the purposes of this assessment.

15.2.52 The traffic information used to develop the air quality model is extracted from the Transport Model for Scotland. This model is a national strategic model and is expected to reflect traffic patterns on the national trunk road network, however the model may not fully reflect traffic levels as accurately on local roads. The DMRB Stage 3 Scheme Assessment Report, Part C includes a description of the more detailed local review of traffic patterns.

15.2.53 As described in paragraph 15.2.1, the years of assessment include future years of 2017 and 2032. There is an inherent limitation in the accuracy of background concentrations and vehicle emission factors projections so far into the future. However, the approach followed is consistent with current best practice and government guidance.

15.3 Baseline Conditions

Air Pollution Sources

Industrial Processes

15.3.1 Industrial air pollution sources are regulated through a system of operating permits or authorisations, requiring stringent emission limits to be met and ensuring that any releases are minimised or rendered harmless. Regulated (or prescribed) industrial processes are classified as Part A or Part B processes. Part A processes, regulated through the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) system (EC Directive 96/91/EC on Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control) are regulated by SEPA. Part A processes have the potential for release of prescribed substances to air, land and water, and as such require an IPPC permit to operate. Part B processes are those regulated by the local authority through the Pollution Prevention and Control (PPC) system under the Pollution Prevention and Control (Scotland) Regulations 2000 as amended. Part B processes are smaller in scale than Part A processes and have the potential for release of prescribed substances to air only, requiring a PPC authorisation or permit to operate. Given the extent of the study area, there will be some Part B processes within the assessed area. However, due to the fact that they are controlled, it is considered unlikely that such processes would lead to a breach of air quality objectives.

15.3.2 There are a number of industrial processes regulated through the IPPC system within approximately 2km of the proposed scheme, including Dalmeny Tank Farm, South Queensferry (part of BP Exploration Co. Ltd), Shanks Chemical Services, several sewage treatment works, Rosyth Royal Dockyards Ltd and the Grampian County Food Group Ltd. However, as these processes are controlled by SEPA and potential releases to air are tightly regulated it is considered that such processes would not lead to a breach of air quality objectives. In addition, the above listed processes are not expected to release large amounts of NOx and particulate matter. Industrial processes are also considered in local authority Air Quality Review and Assessment Reports.

15.3.3 In addition to the processes in the immediate vicinity of the proposed scheme, there are industrial sources which contribute to releases to air in Grangemouth, approximately 10km to the west of the study area and the Longannet Power Station in Kincardine, approximately 10km west of the local air quality study area. As noted in paragraph 15.2.16, SEPA and the relevant local authorities requested during consultation that emissions from the power station should be included in the assessment.

Local Authority Review and Assessment of Air Quality

15.3.4 Under the requirements of the Environment Act 1995 Part IV, local authorities are required to periodically review and assess air quality in their areas. If it is predicted that air quality concentrations will exceed national air quality objectives the local authority is required to declare an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) around the area where the exceedance is predicted to occur.

15.3.5 There are no AQMAs within the local study area. Details on existing AQMAs declared by relevant local authorities are described in the paragraphs below.

City of Edinburgh Council

15.3.6 City of Edinburgh Council (CEC) undertook the first and second stages of the review and assessment process which concluded that NO2 required further investigation at Stage 3 review and assessment (CEC, 2000). This concluded that the annual mean NO2 objective was predicted to be exceeded in 2005 in eight locations in Edinburgh. On this basis CEC subsequently designated an AQMA for NO2 covering the city centre, including the main roads into the city centre.

15.3.7 CEC produced an Air Quality Action Plan in July 2003 (CEC, 2003) which detailed measures to reduce NOx emissions in the AQMA in pursuit of the annual mean NO2 objective.

15.3.8 An Updating and Screening Assessment (USA) was carried out in 2006 (CEC, 2006) which concluded that a second AQMA should be declared for the area around St. Johns Road in west Edinburgh city centre. As a result, an AQMA for NO2 was declared on 31 December 2006.

15.3.9 A Detailed Assessment was undertaken in 2007 for Great Junction Street and West Port in central Edinburgh. The assessment identified that both these locations exceed relevant NO2 objectives and are likely to continue to do so and therefore require to be designated AQMAs.

15.3.10 The Progress Report covering the period of 2005 to 2007 revealed that although traffic management initiatives had been undertaken, the progress at certain air quality hot spots was variable. It is stated that there are locations within the AQMA that are likely to fail the one hour objective for NO2. This was supported by the 2008 Progress Report (CEC, 2008). As a result, a low emission study was commissioned by CEC to review various Low Emission Zone (LEZ) options and make recommendations to address air quality hotspots in Edinburgh. Taking account of the outcome of the study, CEC prepared a new draft Air Quality Action Plan (AQAP) covering the period of 2008 to 2010 in September 2008 (CEC, 2008). The 2008 Progress Report also identified the need for further Detailed Assessments at a city-wide level for PM10 and for Bernard Street, Commercial Street, Ferry Road, Easter Road, London Road, Hope Park Terrace and Glasgow Road for NO2.

15.3.11 The local study area does not include the centre of Edinburgh or any of the designated AQMAs due to the fact that road links do not meet the DMRB criteria as listed in paragraph 15.2.13. Based on the fact that DMRB criteria are not predicted to be met, it is considered unlikely that the proposed scheme would have a significant impact on the AQMAs in Edinburgh. However, there are some road links outside the study area along Queensferry Road on the outskirts of Edinburgh that meet the DMRB criteria and as a result were included in an additional assessment carried out at areas outside the Forth Crossing corridor. The additional assessment is further discussed in Section 15.4 (paragraphs 15.4.48 to 15.4.56).

West Lothian Council

15.3.12 West Lothian Council (WLC) undertook the first and second stages of their review and assessment which concluded that all pollutants of concern would meet the relevant air quality objectives in the relevant years and hence no further assessment work was required.

15.3.13 The USA submitted in July 2006 (WLC, 2006) concluded that all pollutants would continue to meet the relevant air quality objectives and therefore no further assessment would be required. For PM10, however, it was indicated that there is a risk of exceeding the annual objective of 18µg/m3 in Linlithgow High Street. As a result it was recommended to continue the PM10 monitoring at Linlithgow High Street.

15.3.14 The Progress Report submitted in April 2007 (WLC, 2007) states that Linlithgow High Street would potentially have to be declared an AQMA due to a number of exceedances of the PM10 standard and the recorded annual mean being close to the objective. With regards to NO2, the report concludes that there were no exceedances of relevant national objectives and therefore no further Detailed Assessment is required.

15.3.15 The study area does not include Linlithgow High Street. However, a screening exercise showed that the M9 westbound meets DMRB criteria as described in paragraph 15.2.13. An additional assessment was therefore carried out including sensitive receptors around the affected M9 stretch to assess potential impacts on local air quality. This is further discussed in Section 15.4, paragraphs 15.4.50 to 15.4.55.

Fife Council

15.3.16 Fife Council (FC) completed the second round of air quality review and assessment in 2003 with subsequent Progress Reports following in 2004 and 2005. The 2003 USA identified that high NO2 concentrations were recorded at several kerbside locations within the Fife area. The 2004 Progress Report recommended that monitoring at the façade of buildings rather than kerbside locations should be undertaken to allow a better assessment of likely exposure. A revised monitoring programme was carried out in 2004 and automatic monitoring of NO2 has been undertaken at two locations (Rosyth and Kincardine) in Fife.

15.3.17 In 2006 FC submitted an USA as part of the third round of air quality assessment (AEA, 2006). The USA concluded that it is unlikely that the air quality objective for NO2 would be exceeded.

15.3.18 With regards to PM10, the 2006 USA concluded that the 2004 air quality objective is unlikely to be exceeded but that the 2010 objective might be closely approached. It was recommended to continue automatic monitoring for a period covering at least one full year.

15.3.19 The 2007 Progress Report (AEA, 2007) concluded that there is a risk of exceeding the NO2 and PM10 air quality objectives in Bonnygate, Cupar and a Detailed Assessment was carried out during 2007. In November 2008 FC designated an AQMA for the affected area in Bonnygate, Cupar.

15.3.20 As Bonnygate is located more than 40km to the northeast of the proposed Main Crossing, and DMRB criteria are not predicted to be met for roads in the area, it is very unlikely that the proposed scheme would have an adverse impact on the existing air quality hotspot.

Local Air Quality Monitoring

15.3.21 There are a number of continuous monitoring stations within the areas of Edinburgh, Fife and West Lothian; however, only three are located within the study area of the proposed scheme. Continuous monitors are ‘real time’ monitoring devices which actively sample and record pollutant concentrations continuously. Fife Council operates a continuous monitor in Dunfermline and a mobile monitoring station in Rosyth at NGR 311752, 683515. In their 2007 Progress Report, Fife Council reports a NO2 concentration of 26µg/m3 at this location for a six month period (October 2006-March 2007). Table 15.9 shows annual mean NO2 concentrations at the two continuous monitoring sites in Fife for 2008.

Table 15.9: NO2 Continuous Monitoring Results (µg/m3)

Continuous Monitoring Station

Grid Reference

NO2 Concentration 2008

Appin Crescent, Dunfermline

309912, 687738

30

Admiralty Road, Rosyth

311752, 683515

26

15.3.22 In addition, West Lothian Council operates a continuous monitoring station in Broxburn at NGR 308364, 672248. Monitoring data for this station are only available from August 2008 and are therefore not included in the assessment as monitoring needs to be undertaken for a full calendar year to enable comparison with the air quality objectives and limit values.

15.3.23 City of Edinburgh, Fife and West Lothian Councils also operate extensive networks of diffusion tubes for monitoring (diffusion tubes are a passive monitoring technique whereby absorption tubes are exposed for a period of four weeks, and then sent to a laboratory for analysis to obtain four week average monitored concentrations). However, none of the City of Edinburgh Council locations and only one of the West Lothian Council locations were considered to be representative of the study area. Table 15.10 lists diffusion tubes and associated monitored NO2 concentrations, located in Dunfermline and Rosyth, Fife, up to 5km northwest of the Main Crossing as well as one diffusion tube location in Broxburn, West Lothian. All concentrations have been taken from local air quality management reports (as described above) produced by the relevant authorities and are bias-adjusted. The monitoring locations that have been used for model verification are shown on Figure 15.4.

Table 15.10: NO2 Diffusion Tube Results for Fife and West Lothian (µg/m3)

Diffusion Tube

Monitoring Type*

Grid Reference

NO2 Concentration

2005

2006

2007

Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

KS

312103, 683439

31

32

36

Admiralty Rd 1, Rosyth

RS (F)

312103, 683439

26

32

33

Admiralty Rd 2, Rosyth

RS (F)

312103, 683439

26

33

33

Admiralty Rd 3, Rosyth

RS (F)

312103, 683439

23

32

33

St Leonards Primary School, Dunfermline

RS (F)

309770, 686895

n/a

20

19

Carnegie Drive (A), Dunfermline

RS (F)

309019, 687632

29

30

31

Carnegie Drive (B), Dunfermline

RS (F)

309019, 687632

27

31

31

Carnegie Drive (C), Dunfermline

RS (F)

309019, 687632

28

28

32

Rumblingwell, Dunfermline

R

307866, 688231

21

22

23

Aytoun Grove, Dunfermline

UB

308328, 688426

12

11

13

Barrie Street, Dunfermline

UB

308379, 688249

12

12

13

Appin Crescent (C), Dunfermline

RS

309882, 687713

29

30

35

Appin Crescent (1), Dunfermline

RS (F)

309882, 687720

23

24

27

East Main Street, Broxburn

RS

308306, 672217

33

38

n/a

KS – Kerbside; RS (F) – Roadside on building façade; UB – Urban Background

15.3.24 The results in Table 15.10 show that for 2005, 2006 and 2007 the annual mean NO2 air quality objective as shown in Table 15.1 was met.

15.3.25 Additional monitoring was carried out by Jacobs Arup as part of this study in order to get a better understanding of local air quality and enable the assessment of model performance of the ADMS-Roads dispersion model. This monitoring was undertaken for a 12 month period from March 2008 to February 2009 allowing annual average concentrations to be robustly derived. Monitoring locations in the vicinity of the proposed scheme are shown on Figure 15.4 and listed in Table 15.11. Results of the NO2 diffusion tube survey are shown in Table 15.12.

Table 15.11: NO2 Diffusion Tube Survey – Location Details

Tube No

Grid Reference

Location details

1

311370, 678740

Linn Mill at Junction

2

312401, 678400

Farquahar Terrace; South Queensferry

3

312540, 678330

Morrison Gardens; South Queensferry

4

312410, 677890

Stoneyflatts Crescent; South Queensferry

5

312550, 677900

Ferry Muir Gait

6

311640, 674630

Buie Rigg; Kirkliston

7

299250, 677580

Essex Drive/Clark Ave; Linlithgow

8

292910, 687340

Keith Street; Kincardine

9

293010, 687280

Silver Street; Kincardine

10

300680, 686850

Chapel Street; High Valleyfield

11

304930, 685100

Main Road; Crombie

12

312260, 683190

Selvage Street; Rosyth

13

312650, 680600

Ferry Barns Crescent; North Queensferry

14

309273, 677728

Main Street; Newton

Table 15.12: NO2 Diffusion Tube Results (µg/m3) - Monitoring Survey

No.

Mar 08

April 08

May 08

June 08

July 08

Aug 08

Sept 08

Oct 08

Nov 08

Dec 08

Jan 09

Feb 09

Ave *

1

12.5

12.3

10.3

6.9

9.5

10.6

10.9

12.9

n/a

20.2

23.4

14.9

11.8

2

16.6

17.4

13.9

12.5

13.5

17.3

20.8

17.0

n/a

26.1

30.6

15.5

16.5

3

25.5

26.0

22.4

17.1

18.3

24.2

21.5

25.5

n/a

35.9

35.8

14.0

21.8

4

20.7

36.6

23.5

15.5

19.8

22.3

21.0

19.8

n/a

30.4

32.7

13.3

20.9

5

31.5

21.0

21.6

17.7

21.2

22.0

21.8

29.5

n/a

39.0

39.2

31.9

24.2

6

30.6

22.3

20.4

26.1

24.5

30.2

25.3

30.8

n/a

38.2

35.2

29.5

25.6

7

21.5

34.1

21.6

18.2

21.3

22.0

22.0

21.3

n/a

30.0

31.9

17.1

21.4

8

18.6

20.7

15.2

17.0

18.4

21.8

21.9

19.6

n/a

27.9

31.4

23.0

19.3

9

23.5

22.3

19.1

18.1

17.8

21.4

23.0

24.9

n/a

31.6

34.7

29.7

21.8

10

18.6

16.4

11.5

13.4

14.7

14.5

16.5

21.1

n/a

29.2

29.6

20.8

16.9

11

21.1

24.0

15.9

18.6

20.7

16.6

22.2

25.3

n/a

32.4

34.0

23.0

21.0

12

19.0

24.9

18.6

17.1

19.1

23.6

24.7

21.8

n/a

30.4

34.3

14.4

20.3

13

14.9

14.3

11.1

11.2

12.4

16.0

14.4

16.1

n/a

23.3

37.1

17.4

14.6

14

18.8

32.8

25.8

16.6

21.4

24.6

24.8

24.1

n/a

29.4

32.1

12.3

21.4

* Bias adjusted (factor of 0.9) derived using the spreadsheet-based tool available at www.airquality.co.uk/archive/laqm/tools.php

15.3.26 The monitored NO2 concentrations shown in Table 15.12 show that there are currently no exceedances of the relevant air quality objective and limit value. The lowest NO2 concentrations were measured at diffusion tube number 1 (Linn Mill). This location is fairly rural and close to the coast, where better dispersion is likely as a result of higher winds. Monitored NO2 concentrations at diffusion tube number 6 (Buie Rigg, Kirkliston) are highest. Diffusion tube number 6 was located near M9 Junction 1A along the A8000, where higher NO2 concentrations would be expected. However, the results show that the annual average NO2 concentration at all diffusion tube locations was well below the air quality objective and limit value, even when accounting for the uncertainty in the monitoring method (see Appendix A15.1: Air Quality Model Evaluation).

Nitrogen Deposition Rates

15.3.27 As described in paragraph 15.2.42 the designated sites of nature conservation interest in the study area include the Firth of Forth SSSI, the Ferry Hills SSSI and the St. Margaret’s Marsh SSSI.

15.3.28 Table 15.13 lists designated nature conservation sites included in this study, the reasons for their designation and critical loads for the features of special interest. The background nitrogen deposition rates (in kg/ha/yr) were taken from the APIS website (www.apis.ac.uk) for grid references 312029, 678687 (Firth of Forth SSSI), 312070, 681475 (St. Margaret’s Marsh SSSI) and 312545, 681673 (Ferry Hills SSSI). Figure 15.1 shows the locations of assessed SSSIs.

Table 15.13: Nitrogen Critical Loads and Background Deposition Rates (2004*) (Kg N/ha/yr)

Designated site

Features of Special Interest

Critical Load

Background Deposition (Total Rate)

Firth of Forth SSSI

Neutral grassland

10-20

12.7

Fen, marsh and swamp

10-35

12.7

St Margaret’s Marsh SSSI

Saltmarsh fen; marsh and swamp

10-35

12.3

Ferry Hills SSSI

Calcareous grassland

15-25

12.3

* 2004 provides latest available data

Discrete Receptor Assessment – 2005 Base Year

15.3.29 Results of the base year calculations for the 51 discrete receptors as shown in Table 15.5 are included in the result tables in Section 15.4, Tables 15.16-15.17, Tables 15.20-15.21 and Table 15.24. The results show that generally pollutant concentrations in 2005 were below the relevant limit values. This is further discussed in Section 15.4.

15.3.30 With regards to nitrogen deposition, Table 15.14 lists the existing nitrogen deposition rates in 2005 for the three assessed designated sites, which are shown on Figure 15.1. Due to the fact that the Firth of Forth SSSI is crossed by the Forth Road Bridge and the Main Crossing, two different areas of the SSSI have been assessed. Similarly, three separate units of the Ferry Hills SSSI have been assessed as this SSSI comprises separate areas.

Table 15.14: Nitrogen Deposition Rates in 2005 (Kg N/ha/yr)

Receptor Name

Dry Deposition Rate in 2005

Total Deposition Rate* in 2005

Critical Load

Firth of Forth SSSI Unit 1

2.73

12.73

10-35

Firth of Forth SSSI Unit 2

2.76

12.76

10-35

St Margaret’s Marsh SSSI

2.92

12.53

10-35

Ferry Hills SSSI Unit 1

3.47

13.08

15-25

Ferry Hills SSSI Unit 2

3.14

12.75

15-25

Ferry Hills SSSI Unit 3

3.65

13.25

15-25

* Total deposition rate comprises dry and wet deposition

15.3.31 Table 15.14 shows that in 2005 the lower levels of critical load bands are exceeded for the Firth of Forth SSSI and St. Margaret’s Marsh SSSI but not for the Ferry Hills SSSI.

Total Pollutant Emissions

15.3.32 Regional emissions for 2005 have been calculated taking into account existing traffic flows, traffic composition and speeds along the full TMfS:05 transport network (shown on Figure 15.3). The aim of calculating total emissions is to enable a comparison between the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios with regards to the pollutant emissions generated. The extent of the study area for the regional assessment should be as wide as possible to include changes in traffic resulting from the proposed scheme in areas that might be affected by the proposed scheme even if they are not in the immediate vicinity. Differences in emissions between the scenarios with and without the proposed scheme are reported in tonnes per annum rather than percentages as the actual tonnage of pollutant emitted per annum should be independent from the extent of the area provided it includes all affected road links. Emissions for NOx, PM10 and CO2 are presented in Table 15.15.

Table 15.15: Total Emissions within TMfS:05a Network 2005

Pollutant

Emissions (tonnes per annum)

Total vehicle kilometres travelled

NOx

38,212

89,171,204

PM10

1,222

CO2

8,424,191

15.4 Potential Impacts

Introduction

15.4.1 The results of the assessment of local air quality impacts associated with the proposed scheme are presented below in terms of predicted air quality at local receptors and changes in nitrogen deposition at sensitive receptor sites. The results are presented by providing a baseline concentration (2005) and comparing the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios for the years 2017 and 2032. In addition, this section includes the assessment of the regional air quality impacts.

Impacts on Local Air Quality

Model Evaluation

15.4.2 As described in Section 15.2, model verification was carried out by comparing the model results of annual mean NO2 concentrations at receptor locations equivalent to existing monitoring locations within the study area. The results of the model evaluation are summarised and discussed in Appendix A15.1(Air Quality Model Evaluation).

Model Results and Assessment of Significance

NO2 Concentrations

15.4.3 Table 15.16 illustrates the annual mean NO2 concentrations at modelled receptor points for the assessed years and scenarios and Table 15.17 shows the modelled NO2 hourly mean concentrations (99.79th percentile). Figures 15.5 to 15.9 (15.5, 15.6, 15.7, 15.8 and 15.9) provide contour plots for the annual mean NO2 concentrations for each of the modelled scenarios. Figures 15.10 and 15.11 show difference plots for annual mean NO2 concentration differences between the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios in 2017 and 2032 respectively.

Table 15.16: Modelled Annual Mean NO2 Concentrations* (µg/m3)

No

Location

2005

2017

2032

Base

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

R1

18 Westfield Grove, Crossgates

32.3

29.6

29.6

28.5

28.6

R2

Ardshallah, Inverkeithing Road, Crossgates

29.3

27.7

27.7

26.2

26.3

R3

18 Sandybank, Halbeath

32.1

29.6

29.6

28.3

28.3

R4

119 Dunfermline Rd, Crossgates

31.1

28.7

28.7

27.3

27.4

R5

Crossgates Primary School, Crossgates

29.4

27.9

27.9

26.5

26.5

R6

Touch Primary School, Dunfermline

28.0

27.2

27.2

25.7

25.7

R7

St Columba's High School, Dunfermline

27.8

27.0

27.0

25.5

25.5

R8

71 Meldrum Court, Dunfermline

28.2

27.1

27.1

25.6

25.6

R9

Mid Duloch Farm, Inverkeithing

29.1

27.7

27.8

26.4

26.4

R10

Ferry Craig House, North Queensferry

28.7

26.9

26.7

25.4

25.2

R11

15 Ferry Barns Court, North Queensferry

29.9

27.4

26.6

26.0

25.1

R12

St Margaret’s Hope Lodge, North Queensferry

28.4

26.8

28.8

25.3

27.3

R13

24 Ferry Hills Road, North Queensferry

29.9

27.0

27.6

26.0

26.1

R14

18 Whinny Hill Crescent, Inverkeithing

30.6

28.0

28.2

26.5

26.9

R15

The Bungalow, Dunfermline

30.1

28.4

28.5

27.1

27.2

R16

25 Park Lea, Rosyth

30.6

28.7

28.7

27.4

27.5

R17

Inverkeithing High School, Hillend Road

28.8

27.3

27.4

25.8

25.9

R18

39 Burleigh Crescent, Inverkeithing

29.0

27.4

27.5

26.0

26.1

R19

25 Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

30.3

28.4

28.5

26.9

27.1

R20

18 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

28.9

27.3

27.2

25.8

25.8

R21

114 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

29.4

27.6

27.7

26.1

26.3

R22

5 Mucklehill Park, Inverkeithing

30.5

28.0

28.2

26.5

26.9

R23

231 Queensferry Road, Rosyth

28.1

26.9

27.0

25.5

25.6

R24

7 Letham Hill Way, Hillend

29.0

27.3

27.4

25.8

25.9

R25

St Margaret's Hope, North Queensferry

27.9

26.5

30.3

25.0

28.9

R26

14 Farquhar Terrace, South Queensferry

28.8

27.4

27.0

26.1

25.5

R27

Plewlands House, South Queensferry

28.6

27.3

26.8

25.9

25.3

R28

45 Stoneyflats Crescent, South Queensferry

29.7

28.2

26.8

26.9

25.4

R29

10 Scotstoun Green, South Queensferry

29.4

27.9

27.5

26.6

26.3

R30

68 Echline Drive, South Queensferry

28.4

27.4

28.1

26.3

26.9

R31

7 Linnmill, South Queensferry

27.3

26.7

27.5

25.2

26.0

R32

12 Dundas Home Farm

28.2

27.3

27.9

25.9

26.5

R33

11 Main Street, Newton

30.7

28.8

29.1

28.2

28.5

R34

39 Cotlaws, Kirkliston

32.9

30.0

30.1

29.3

29.0

R35

1 Beatly Road, Winchburgh

28.6

27.3

27.3

26.9

27.0

R36

2 Millrig Cottages, Kirkliston

31.3

28.8

28.6

28.2

28.1

R37

2 Newmains Road, Kirkliston

29.1

28.0

27.5

27.0

26.6

R38

35 Main Street, Kirkliston

30.6

28.9

28.4

28.7

28.4

R39

15 Springfield Terrace, South Queensferry

27.7

26.9

27.4

25.5

26.1

R40

1 Winchburgh Road, Winchburgh

30.5

28.6

29.0

28.1

28.8

R41

Newbigging Lodge, Dundas Home Farm

29.2

28.0

28.2

26.7

26.9

R42

21 Long Crook, South Queensferry

29.7

28.2

27.3

27.2

26.1

R43

16 Main Street, Dalmeny

28.2

27.1

27.1

25.7

25.7

R44

61 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

35.0

31.0

31.0

29.9

30.0

R45

16 Bennet Wood Terrace, Winchburgh

28.5

27.5

27.8

27.1

27.1

R46

Standingstone Cottage

27.7

26.8

26.7

25.4

25.3

R47

21 Echline, South Queensferry

31.1

29.1

27.8

28.6

26.8

R48

Queensferry Primary School, South Queensferry

29.5

27.7

27.2

26.5

25.8

R49

Echline Primary School, South Queensferry

28.0

27.1

27.0

25.8

25.6

R50

104 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

35.3

31.1

31.1

30.0

30.1

R51

Inchgarvie House, South Queensferry

27.3

26.7

28.6

25.0

27.2

* Numbers are rounded to 1 decimal place

Table 15.17: Modelled 99.79th Percentile of Hourly Mean NO2 Concentrations* (µg/m3)

No

Location

2005

2017

2032

Base

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

R1

18 Westfield Grove, Crossgates

103.4

136.9

136.9

129.0

129.1

R2

Ardshallah, Inverkeithing Road, Crossgates

100.3

135.9

135.9

127.6

127.7

R3

18 Sandybank, Halbeath

99.5

135.7

135.7

127.5

127.4

R4

119 Dunfermline Rd, Crossgates

101.5

136.1

136.1

127.9

128.0

R5

Crossgates Primary School, Crossgates

99.8

135.5

135.6

127.3

127.3

R6

Touch Primary School, Dunfermline

98.5

135.2

135.2

127.0

127.0

R7

St Columba's High School, Dunfermline

98.4

135.2

135.2

126.9

126.9

R8

71 Meldrum Court, Dunfermline

98.8

135.1

135.1

126.9

126.9

R9

Mid Duloch Farm, Inverkeithing

99.6

135.5

135.5

127.4

127.4

R10

Ferry Craig House, North Queensferry

98.2

133.8

135.5

125.6

127.2

R11

15 Ferry Barns Court, North Queensferry

101.6

136.6

135.4

128.4

127.2

R12

St Margaret’s Hope Lodge, North Queensferry

98.9

134.6

136.2

126.3

127.9

R13

24 Ferry Hills Road, North Queensferry

99.5

135.6

136.1

127.9

127.9

R14

18 Whinny Hill Crescent, Inverkeithing

99.9

136.2

136.4

128.0

128.2

R15

The Bungalow, Dunfermline

99.1

135.1

135.1

126.9

126.9

R16

25 Park Lea, Rosyth

99.1

135.4

135.4

127.1

127.1

R17

Inverkeithing High School, Hillend Road

99.2

135.6

135.6

127.3

127.4

R18

39 Burleigh Crescent, Inverkeithing

99.0

135.5

135.5

127.2

127.2

R19

25 Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

98.5

135.2

135.2

127.0

127.1

R20

18 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

98.9

135.0

135.0

126.8

126.8

R21

114 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

98.8

135.3

135.3

127.1

127.1

R22

5 Mucklehill Park, Inverkeithing

100.0

136.2

136.4

128.0

128.2

R23

231 Queensferry Road, Rosyth

98.9

135.1

135.1

126.9

126.9

R24

7 Letham Hill Way, Hillend

100.1

135.4

135.4

127.2

127.2

R25

St Margaret's Hope, North Queensferry

98.4

136.9

136.9

125.1

128.7

R26

14 Farquhar Terrace, South Queensferry

99.9

136.1

135.4

127.9

127.2

R27

Plewlands House, South Queensferry

99.9

135.4

135.2

127.3

127.0

R28

45 Stoneyflats Crescent, South Queensferry

99.4

135.7

135.2

127.5

127.0

R29

10 Scotstoun Green, South Queensferry

100.4

135.7

135.6

127.6

127.4

R30

68 Echline Drive, South Queensferry

99.7

135.3

135.8

127.2

127.6

R31

7 Linnmill, South Queensferry

99.4

135.0

134.9

126.8

126.8

R32

12 Dundas Home Farm

99.3

135.8

135.6

127.6

127.4

R33

11 Main Street, Newton

101.8

136.8

137.1

129.2

130.4

R34

39 Cotlaws, Kirkliston

105.8

137.8

137.9

130.3

130.0

R35

1 Beatly Road, Winchburgh

98.2

135.3

135.4

127.3

127.6

R36

2 Millrig Cottages, Kirkliston

101.6

136.2

136.1

128.5

128.4

R37

2 Newmains Road, Kirkliston

99.5

135.9

135.6

127.7

127.7

R38

35 Main Street, Kirkliston

101.6

137.1

136.4

129.6

129.3

R39

15 Springfield Terrace, South Queensferry

99.4

135.1

135.6

126.9

127.4

R40

1 Winchburgh Road, Winchburgh

101.0

136.3

136.9

128.6

130.4

R41

Newbigging Lodge, Dundas Home Farm

99.3

135.8

135.7

127.5

127.4

R42

21 Long Crook, South Queensferry

100.9

135.9

135.4

128.0

127.3

R43

16 Main Street, Dalmeny

99.9

135.2

135.2

127.1

127.0

R44

61 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

106.9

138.4

138.4

130.4

130.5

R45

16 Bennet Wood Terrace, Winchburgh

98.4

135.6

135.6

127.4

127.4

R46

Standingstone Cottage

99.5

135.2

135.2

127.1

127.0

R47

21 Echline, South Queensferry

103.5

137.7

135.9

130.7

128.0

R48

Queensferry Primary School, South Queensferry

101.2

135.9

135.5

127.9

127.5

R49

Echline Primary School, South Queensferry

99.4

135.1

135.4

127.0

127.2

R50

104 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

105.5

138.2

138.1

130.2

130.2
R51 Inchgarvie House, South Queensferry 99.4 135.0 135.6 126.6 127.4

*Numbers are rounded to 1 decimal place

15.4.4 The results show that annual mean NO2 concentrations are well below (i.e. less that 75% of the standard) the relevant objective and limit value of 40µg/m3 for the vast majority of receptors in all assessed future years and scenarios. Whilst concentrations at receptors R25 (St Margaret’s Hope), R34 (39 Cotlaws), R44 (61 Glasgow Road) and R50 (104 Glasgow Road) are not predicted to be ‘well below’ (as defined in the footnote to Table 15.8) the objective and limit value, they are still comfortably within the objective and limit value. Similarly, modelled concentrations in 2005, whilst not ‘well below’ the objective and limit value at all receptors, are also all comfortably below the objective and limit value.

15.4.5 Forecast annual mean NO2 concentrations for the assessed future year scenarios 2017 and 2032, with and without the proposed development are lower than those experienced at present for the vast majority of assessed receptors. This is expected due to predicted improvements in vehicle technology in the future.

15.4.6 The results of the 99.79th percentile of the hourly mean NO2 concentrations show that at all receptor locations and for all assessed years and scenarios the hourly mean concentrations of NO2 are well below the objective and limit value of 200µg/m3. The increase in the 99.79th percentile of the hourly mean NO2 concentrations between the base year and future year scenarios is a result of different percentile distributions in the background monitoring data in 2005 and 2008, i.e. 2008 background monitoring data (from Edinburgh St Leonards monitoring site) have been used as the basis for calculating future year background concentrations and as 2008 pollutant concentrations are significantly higher than 2005 concentrations, the 99.79th percentiles of hourly NO2 concentrations even when projected forward to 2017/2032 remain higher than in 2005.

15.4.7 Table 15.18 and Table 15.19 show the modelled percentage difference, resulting magnitude of change and significance in annual mean NO2 concentrations for 2017 and 2032.

Table 15.18: Assessment of Significance for NO2 in 2017

No

Location

2017

Modelled % Change*

Magnitude of Change

Significance

R1

18 Westfield Grove, Crossgates

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R2

Ardshallah, Inverkeithing Road, Crossgates

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R3

18 Sandybank, Halbeath

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R4

119 Dunfermline Rd, Crossgates

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R5

Crossgates Primary School, Crossgates

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R6

Touch Primary School, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R7

St Columba's High School, Dunfermline

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R8

71 Meldrum Court, Dunfermline

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R9

Mid Duloch Farm, Inverkeithing

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R10

Ferry Craig House, North Queensferry

-0.8

Extremely Small

Negligible

R11

15 Ferry Barns Court, North Queensferry

-3.0

Very Small

Negligible

R12

St Margaret’s Hope Lodge, North Queensferry

+7.2

Small

Slight Adverse

R13

24 Ferry Hills Road, North Queensferry

+2.0

Very Small

Negligible

R14

18 Whinny Hill Crescent, Inverkeithing

+1.0

Very Small

Negligible

R15

The Bungalow, Dunfermline

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R16

25 Park Lea, Rosyth

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R17

Inverkeithing High School, Hillend Road

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R18

39 Burleigh Crescent, Inverkeithing

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R19

25 Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R20

18 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R21

114 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R22

5 Mucklehill Park, Inverkeithing

+1.0

Very Small

Negligible

R23

231 Queensferry Road, Rosyth

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R24

7 Letham Hill Way, Hillend

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R25

St Margaret's Hope, North Queensferry

+14.0

Medium

Moderate Adverse

R26

14 Farquhar Terrace, South Queensferry

-1.7

Very Small

Negligible

R27

Plewlands House, South Queensferry

-2.0

Very Small

Negligible

R28

45 Stoneyflats Crescent, South Queensferry

-5.3

Small

Slight Beneficial

R29

10 Scotstoun Green, South Queensferry

-1.4

Very Small

Negligible

R30

68 Echline Drive, South Queensferry

+2.6

Very Small

Negligible

R31

7 Linnmill, South Queensferry

+3.0

Very Small

Negligible

R32

12 Dundas Home Farm

+2.0

Very Small

Negligible

R33

11 Main Street, Newton

+1.3

Very Small

Negligible

R34

39 Cotlaws, Kirkliston

+0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R35

1 Beatly Road, Winchburgh

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R36

2 Millrig Cottages, Kirkliston

-0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R37

2 Newmains Road, Kirkliston

-2.0

Very Small

Negligible

R38

35 Main Street, Kirkliston

-2.0

Very Small

Negligible

R39

15 Springfield Terrace, South Queensferry

+2.0

Very Small

Negligible

R40

1 Winchburgh Road, Winchburgh

+1.3

Very Small

Negligible

R41

Newbigging Lodge, Dundas Home Farm

+0.6

Extremely Small

Negligible

R42

21 Long Crook, South Queensferry

-3.4

Very Small

Negligible

R43

16 Main Street, Dalmeny

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R44

61 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R45

16 Bennet Wood Terrace, Winchburgh

+1.1

Very Small

Negligible

R46

Standingstone Cottage

-0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R47

21 Echline, South Queensferry

-4.6

Very Small

Negligible

R48

Queensferry Primary School, South Queensferry

-2.2

Very Small

Negligible

R49

Echline Primary School, South Queensferry

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R50

104 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible
R51 Inchgarvie House, South Queensferry +7.3 Small Slight Adverse

* This is the percentage change between the 2017 Do-Minimum and Do-Something concentrations reported in Table 15.16.

Table 15.19: Assessment of Significance for NO2 in 2032

No

Location

2032

Modelled % Change

Magnitude of Change

Significance

R1

18 Westfield Grove, Crossgates

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R2

Ardshallah, Inverkeithing Road, Crossgates

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R3

18 Sandybank, Halbeath

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R4

119 Dunfermline Rd, Crossgates

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R5

Crossgates Primary School, Crossgates

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R6

Touch Primary School, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R7

St Columba's High School, Dunfermline

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R8

71 Meldrum Court, Dunfermline

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R9

Mid Duloch Farm, Inverkeithing

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R10

Ferry Craig House, North Queensferry

-1.1

Very Small

Negligible

R11

15 Ferry Barns Court, North Queensferry

-3.6

Very Small

Negligible

R12

St Margaret’s Hope Lodge, North Queensferry

+7.9

Small

Slight Adverse

R13

24 Ferry Hills Road, North Queensferry

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R14

18 Whinny Hill Crescent, Inverkeithing

+1.4

Very Small

Negligible

R15

The Bungalow, Dunfermline

+0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R16

25 Park Lea, Rosyth

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R17

Inverkeithing High School, Hillend Road

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R18

39 Burleigh Crescent, Inverkeithing

+0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R19

25 Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

+0.7

Extremely Small

Negligible

R20

18 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R21

114 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

+0.7

Extremely Small

Negligible

R22

5 Mucklehill Park, Inverkeithing

+1.6

Very Small

Negligible

R23

231 Queensferry Road, Rosyth

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R24

7 Letham Hill Way, Hillend

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R25

St Margaret's Hope, North Queensferry

+15.4

Large

Slight Adverse

R26

14 Farquhar Terrace, South Queensferry

-2.0

Very Small

Negligible

R27

Plewlands House, South Queensferry

-2.3

Very Small

Negligible

R28

45 Stoneyflats Crescent, South Queensferry

-6.0

Small

Slight Beneficial

R29

10 Scotstoun Green, South Queensferry

-1.0

Very Small

Negligible

R30

68 Echline Drive, South Queensferry

+2.4

Very Small

Negligible

R31

7 Linnmill, South Queensferry

+3.1

Very Small

Negligible

R32

12 Dundas Home Farm

+2.3

Very Small

Negligible

R33

11 Main Street, Newton

+0.9

Extremely Small

Negligible

R34

39 Cotlaws, Kirkliston

-0.8

Extremely Small

Negligible

R35

1 Beatly Road, Winchburgh

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R36

2 Millrig Cottages, Kirkliston

-0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R37

2 Newmains Road, Kirkliston

-1.5

Very Small

Negligible

R38

35 Main Street, Kirkliston

-1.3

Very Small

Negligible

R39

15 Springfield Terrace, South Queensferry

+2.0

Very Small

Negligible

R40

1 Winchburgh Road, Winchburgh

+2.4

Very Small

Negligible

R41

Newbigging Lodge, Dundas Home Farm

+0.9

Extremely Small

Negligible

R42

21 Long Crook, South Queensferry

-4.5

Very Small

Negligible

R43

16 Main Street, Dalmeny

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R44

61 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R45

16 Bennet Wood Terrace, Winchburgh

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R46

Standingstone Cottage

-0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R47

21 Echline, South Queensferry

-6.5

Small

Slight Beneficial

R48

Queensferry Primary School, South Queensferry

-2.5

Very Small

Negligible

R49

Echline Primary School, South Queensferry

-0.7

Extremely Small

Negligible

R50

104 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible
R51 Inchgarvie House, South Queensferry +8.9 Small Slight Adverse

* This is the percentage change between the 2032 Do-Minimum and Do-Something concentrations reported in Table 15.16.

15.4.8 The magnitude of change for the majority of receptors in both 2017 and 2032 is very small or extremely small. In 2017 there are three receptors with small magnitude of change and one receptor R25 (St Margaret’s Hope) with medium magnitude of change. The predicted concentrations at receptor R25 are below the objective and limit value, but not well below. The resulting significance of effect for receptor R25 is Moderate Adverse. The significance of effect for the majority of remaining receptors is rated as Negligible, Slight Adverse or Slight Beneficial significance.

15.4.9 In 2032 there are four receptors with small magnitude of change and one receptor R25 (St. Margaret’s Hope) with a large magnitude of change, however, the predicted concentrations are well below the objective and limit value. The resulting significance of effect for the majority of receptors is Negligible. Some receptors are predicted to experience impacts of Slight Adverse or Slight Beneficial significance.  Receptor R25 (St. Margaret’s Hope) is predicted to experience impacts of Slight Adverse significance.

15.4.10 The annual mean NO2 concentration contours for 2017 and 2032 for both the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios show that NO2 concentration objectives and limit values are met everywhere within the study area except at a small stretch on the M8, which has no relevant exposure (i.e. there are no sensitive properties where the air quality objectives would apply within the exceedance area).

15.4.11 The difference contour plots (Figures 15.10 and 15.11) show that with the proposed scheme there would be improvements with regards to local air quality around the Forth Road Bridge and deteriorations around areas of the Main Crossing. This is because traffic flows will shift from the Forth Road Bridge to the Main Crossing and hence areas around the Forth Road Bridge, which are exposed to elevated pollutant concentrations due to high traffic flows in the Do-Minimum scenario are predicted to experience an improvement of local air quality as traffic flows decrease. Equally, areas around the Main Crossing, with no traffic flows in the Do-Minimum scenario, will experience a sharp increase in traffic volume and hence deterioration of local air quality. Due to the scale of the area affected by the proposed scheme, there are receptors in the vicinity of the Main Crossing which are predicted to experience deterioration of local air quality but are not covered by the assessment of discrete receptors as provided above. However, the contour plots provided show that whilst there are receptors that are likely to experience an increase in pollutant levels as a result of the proposed scheme, total concentrations at these locations (i.e. receptors along Society Road and Clufflat) are still well below the relevant limit values and objectives.

PM10 Concentrations

15.4.12 Table 15.20 presents calculated annual mean PM10 concentrations for 2017 and 2032 for the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios. Table 15.21 shows the results of the calculated daily mean (98.08th percentile) PM10 concentrations. Annual mean PM10 concentration contour plots for the assessed years and scenarios are shown on Figures 15.12 to 15.16. (15.12, 15.13, 15.14, 15.15 and 15.16) Difference plots are provided in Figures 15.17 and 15.18. Contour plots for the daily mean (98.08th percentile) PM10 concentrations are provided in Figures 15.19 to 15.23. (15.19, 15.20, 15.21, 15.22 and 15.23)

Table 15.20: Modelled Annual Mean PM10 Concentrations* (µg/m3)

No

Location

2005

2017

2032

Base

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

R1

18 Westfield Grove, Crossgates

18.9

14.2

14.2

14.0

14.1

R2

Ardshallah, Inverkeithing Road, Crossgates

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.9

R3

18 Sandybank, Halbeath

18.9

14.2

14.2

14.0

14.0

R4

119 Dunfermline Rd, Crossgates

18.8

14.1

14.1

13.9

13.9

R5

Crossgates Primary School, Crossgates

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

R6

Touch Primary School, Dunfermline

18.5

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

R7

St Columba's High School, Dunfermline

18.5

13.9

13.9

13.8

13.8

R8

71 Meldrum Court, Dunfermline

18.5

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

R9

Mid Duloch Farm, Inverkeithing

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

R10

Ferry Craig House, North Queensferry

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

R11

15 Ferry Barns Court, North Queensferry

18.7

14.1

14.0

13.9

13.8

R12

St Margaret’s Hope Lodge, North Queensferry

18.4

14.0

14.2

13.8

14.0

R13

24 Ferry Hills Road, North Queensferry

18.7

14.0

14.0

13.9

13.9

R14

18 Whinny Hill Crescent, Inverkeithing

18.8

14.1

14.1

13.9

14.0

R15

The Bungalow, Dunfermline

18.7

14.1

14.1

13.9

13.9

R16

25 Park Lea, Rosyth

18.7

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

R17

Inverkeithing High School, Hillend Road

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

R18

39 Burleigh Crescent, Inverkeithing

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

R19

25 Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

18.7

14.1

14.1

13.9

13.9

R20

18 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

R21

114 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.9

R22

5 Mucklehill Park, Inverkeithing

18.7

14.1

14.1

13.9

14.0

R23

231 Queensferry Road, Rosyth

18.5

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

R24

7 Letham Hill Way, Hillend

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

R25

St Margaret's Hope, North Queensferry

18.5

13.9

14.5

13.8

14.4

R26

14 Farquhar Terrace, South Queensferry

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

R27

Plewlands House, South Queensferry

18.5

14.0

13.9

13.8

13.8

R28

45 Stoneyflats Crescent, South Queensferry

18.6

14.0

13.9

13.9

13.8

R29

10 Scotstoun Green, South Queensferry

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.9

13.8

R30

68 Echline Drive, South Queensferry

18.5

14.0

14.1

13.8

13.9

R31

7 Linnmill, South Queensferry

18.4

13.9

14.0

13.7

13.8

R32

12 Dundas Home Farm

18.5

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

R33

11 Main Street, Newton

18.8

14.1

14.2

14.0

14.1

R34

39 Cotlaws, Kirkliston

19.2

14.4

14.5

14.3

14.4

R35

1 Beatly Road, Winchburgh

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.9

13.9

R36

2 Millrig Cottages, Kirkliston

18.7

14.1

14.1

13.9

14.0

R37

2 Newmains Road, Kirkliston

18.6

14.1

14.0

13.9

13.9

R38

35 Main Street, Kirkliston

18.8

14.2

14.1

14.1

14.1

R39

15 Springfield Terrace, South Queensferry

18.5

13.9

14.0

13.8

13.8

R40

1 Winchburgh Road, Winchburgh

18.8

14.1

14.2

14.0

14.1

R41

Newbigging Lodge, Dundas Home Farm

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.9

R42

21 Long Crook, South Queensferry

18.6

14.0

14.0

13.9

13.8

R43

16 Main Street, Dalmeny

18.5

13.9

14.0

13.8

13.8

R44

61 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

19.3

14.4

14.4

14.2

14.2

R45

16 Bennet Wood Terrace, Winchburgh

18.5

14.0

14.0

13.9

13.9

R46

Standingstone Cottage

18.5

13.9

13.9

13.8

13.8

R47

21 Echline, South Queensferry

18.9

14.2

14.1

14.1

13.9

R48

Queensferry Primary School, South Queensferry

18.7

14.0

14.0

13.9

13.8

R49

Echline Primary School, South Queensferry

18.5

13.9

13.9

13.8

13.8

R50

104 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

19.3

14.4

14.4

14.2

14.2
R51 Inchgarvie House, South Queensferry 18.4 13.9 14.1 13.7 13.9

*Numbers are rounded to 1 decimal place

Table 15.21: Modelled 98.08th Percentile of Daily Mean PM10 Concentrations* (µg/m3)

No

Location

2005

2017

2032

Base

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

R1

18 Westfield Grove, Crossgates

36.4

34.4

34.4

34.0

34.1

R2

Ardshallah, Inverkeithing Road, Crossgates

36.4

34.1

34.1

33.7

33.7

R3

18 Sandybank, Halbeath

37.4

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.6

R4

119 Dunfermline Rd, Crossgates

36.5

34.2

34.2

33.8

33.8

R5

Crossgates Primary School, Crossgates

36.4

34.1

34.1

33.7

33.7

R6

Touch Primary School, Dunfermline

36.4

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.6

R7

St Columba's High School, Dunfermline

36.4

34.0

34.0

33.5

33.5

R8

71 Meldrum Court, Dunfermline

36.4

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.6

R9

Mid Duloch Farm, Inverkeithing

36.5

34.1

34.1

33.6

33.6

R10

Ferry Craig House, North Queensferry

36.7

34.0

34.1

33.5

33.6

R11

15 Ferry Barns Court, North Queensferry

36.3

34.2

34.0

33.8

33.6

R12

St Margaret’s Hope Lodge, North Queensferry

36.3

34.0

34.0

33.5

33.5

R13

24 Ferry Hills Road, North Queensferry

36.3

34.1

34.2

33.8

33.8

R14

18 Whinny Hill Crescent, Inverkeithing

36.4

34.3

34.3

33.8

33.9

R15

The Bungalow, Dunfermline

36.6

34.1

34.1

33.7

33.7

R16

25 Park Lea, Rosyth

37.1

34.0

34.0

33.5

33.5

R17

Inverkeithing High School, Hillend Road

36.5

34.1

34.1

33.6

33.6

R18

39 Burleigh Crescent, Inverkeithing

36.5

34.1

34.1

33.6

33.6

R19

25 Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

36.9

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.6

R20

18 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

36.5

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.6

R21

114 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

36.7

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.6

R22

5 Mucklehill Park, Inverkeithing

36.4

34.3

34.3

33.8

33.9

R23

231 Queensferry Road, Rosyth

36.4

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.6

R24

7 Letham Hill Way, Hillend

36.4

34.1

34.1

33.7

33.7

R25

St Margaret's Hope, North Queensferry

36.5

34.0

34.2

33.5

33.8

R26

14 Farquhar Terrace, South Queensferry

36.5

34.0

34.1

33.6

33.7

R27

Plewlands House, South Queensferry

36.4

34.1

34.0

33.6

33.6

R28

45 Stoneyflats Crescent, South Queensferry

36.9

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.6

R29

10 Scotstoun Green, South Queensferry

36.3

34.2

34.2

33.8

33.8

R30

68 Echline Drive, South Queensferry

36.4

34.1

34.3

33.7

33.9

R31

7 Linnmill, South Queensferry

36.4

34.0

34.0

33.5

33.5

R32

12 Dundas Home Farm

36.5

34.0

34.0

33.5

33.5

R33

11 Main Street, Newton

36.6

34.3

34.3

34.0

34.0

R34

39 Cotlaws, Kirkliston

36.4

34.8

35.1

34.6

34.7

R35

1 Beatly Road, Winchburgh

36.6

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.6

R36

2 Millrig Cottages, Kirkliston

36.7

34.1

34.1

33.7

33.7

R37

2 Newmains Road, Kirkliston

36.6

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.6

R38

35 Main Street, Kirkliston

36.6

34.3

34.2

34.0

33.9

R39

15 Springfield Terrace, South Queensferry

36.4

34.0

34.1

33.6

33.7

R40

1 Winchburgh Road, Winchburgh

36.6

34.3

34.3

34.0

34.1

R41

Newbigging Lodge, Dundas Home Farm

36.6

34.0

34.0

33.5

33.5

R42

21 Long Crook, South Queensferry

36.5

34.2

34.1

33.8

33.7

R43

16 Main Street, Dalmeny

36.3

34.1

34.1

33.6

33.6

R44

61 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

36.4

34.8

34.8

34.4

34.4

R45

16 Bennet Wood Terrace, Winchburgh

36.6

34.0

34.0

33.5

33.5

R46

Standingstone Cottage

36.3

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.6

R47

21 Echline, South Queensferry

36.4

34.5

34.2

34.2

33.9

R48

Queensferry Primary School, South Queensferry

36.4

34.2

34.1

33.8

33.7

R49

Echline Primary School, South Queensferry

36.4

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.6

R50

104 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

37.4

34.2

34.2

33.8

33.8
R51 Inchgarvie House, South Queensferry 36.4 34.0 34.0 33.5 33.5

*Numbers are rounded to 1 decimal place

15.4.13 The results show that annual mean PM10 concentrations are below, but not well below the air quality objective (18µg/m3) for future year scenarios. PM10 concentrations in 2005 largely exceed the 18µg/m3 value, however, this objective only applies from 31 December 2010. Forecast concentrations of PM10 for the assessed future year scenarios 2017 and 2032, both with and without the proposed scheme are lower than those experienced at present. This is expected due to predicted improvements in vehicle technology in the future.

15.4.14 The results of the predicted 98.08th percentile of the daily mean PM10 concentrations show that concentrations are well below the relevant air quality objective (50µg/m3) at all receptors for the assessed years and scenarios.

15.4.15 Table 15.22 and Table 15.23 show the modelled percentage difference, resulting magnitude of change and significance in annual mean PM10 concentrations for 2017 and 2032.

Table 15.22: Assessment of Significance for PM10 in 2017

No

Location

2017

Modelled % Change

Magnitude of Change

Significance

R1

18 Westfield Grove, Crossgates

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R2

Ardshallah, Inverkeithing Road, Crossgates

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R3

18 Sandybank, Halbeath

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R4

119 Dunfermline Rd, Crossgates

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R5

Crossgates Primary School, Crossgates

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R6

Touch Primary School, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R7

St Columba's High School, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R8

71 Meldrum Court, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R9

Mid Duloch Farm, Inverkeithing

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R10

Ferry Craig House, North Queensferry

-0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R11

15 Ferry Barns Court, North Queensferry

-1.1

Very Small

Slight Beneficial

R12

St Margaret’s Hope Lodge, North Queensferry

+1.6

Very Small

Slight Adverse

R13

24 Ferry Hills Road, North Queensferry

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R14

18 Whinny Hill Crescent, Inverkeithing

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R15

The Bungalow, Dunfermline

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R16

25 Park Lea, Rosyth

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R17

Inverkeithing High School, Hillend Road

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R18

39 Burleigh Crescent, Inverkeithing

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R19

25 Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R20

18 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

-0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R21

114 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R22

5 Mucklehill Park, Inverkeithing

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R23

231 Queensferry Road, Rosyth

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R24

7 Letham Hill Way, Hillend

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R25

St Margaret's Hope, North Queensferry

+4.3

Very Small

Slight Adverse

R26

14 Farquhar Terrace, South Queensferry

-0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R27

Plewlands House, South Queensferry

-0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R28

45 Stoneyflats Crescent, South Queensferry

-0.8

Extremely Small

Negligible

R29

10 Scotstoun Green, South Queensferry

-0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R30

68 Echline Drive, South Queensferry

+0.6

Extremely Small

Negligible

R31

7 Linnmill, South Queensferry

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R32

12 Dundas Home Farm

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R33

11 Main Street, Newton

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R34

39 Cotlaws, Kirkliston

+0.9

Extremely Small

Negligible

R35

1 Beatly Road, Winchburgh

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R36

2 Millrig Cottages, Kirkliston

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R37

2 Newmains Road, Kirkliston

-0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R38

35 Main Street, Kirkliston

-0.6

Extremely Small

Negligible

R39

15 Springfield Terrace, South Queensferry

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R40

1 Winchburgh Road, Winchburgh

+0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R41

Newbigging Lodge, Dundas Home Farm

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R42

21 Long Crook, South Queensferry

-0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R43

16 Main Street, Dalmeny

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R44

61 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R45

16 Bennet Wood Terrace, Winchburgh

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R46

Standingstone Cottage

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R47

21 Echline, South Queensferry

-1.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R48

Queensferry Primary School, South Queensferry

-0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R49

Echline Primary School, South Queensferry

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R50

104 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible
R51 Inchgarvie House, South Queensferry +1.5 Very Small Slight Adverse

* This is the percentage change between the 2017 Do-Minimum and Do-Something concentrations reported in Table 15.20.

Table 15.23: Assessment of Significance for PM10 in 2032

No

Location

2032

Modelled % Change

Magnitude of Change

Significance

R1

18 Westfield Grove, Crossgates

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R2

Ardshallah, Inverkeithing Road, Crossgates

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R3

18 Sandybank, Halbeath

-0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R4

119 Dunfermline Rd, Crossgates

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R5

Crossgates Primary School, Crossgates

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R6

Touch Primary School, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R7

St Columba's High School, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R8

71 Meldrum Court, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R9

Mid Duloch Farm, Inverkeithing

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R10

Ferry Craig House, North Queensferry

-0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R11

15 Ferry Barns Court, North Queensferry

-1.2

Very Small

Slight Beneficial

R12

St Margaret’s Hope Lodge, North Queensferry

+1.7

Very Small

Slight Adverse

R13

24 Ferry Hills Road, North Queensferry

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R14

18 Whinny Hill Crescent, Inverkeithing

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R15

The Bungalow, Dunfermline

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R16

25 Park Lea, Rosyth

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R17

Inverkeithing High School, Hillend Road

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R18

39 Burleigh Crescent, Inverkeithing

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R19

25 Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R20

18 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

-0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R21

114 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R22

5 Mucklehill Park, Inverkeithing

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R23

231 Queensferry Road, Rosyth

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R24

7 Letham Hill Way, Hillend

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R25

St Margaret's Hope, North Queensferry

+4.5

Very Small

Slight Adverse

R26

14 Farquhar Terrace, South Queensferry

-0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R27

Plewlands House, South Queensferry

-0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R28

45 Stoneyflats Crescent, South Queensferry

-0.9

Extremely Small

Negligible

R29

10 Scotstoun Green, South Queensferry

-0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R30

68 Echline Drive, South Queensferry

+0.6

Extremely Small

Negligible

R31

7 Linnmill, South Queensferry

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R32

12 Dundas Home Farm

+0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R33

11 Main Street, Newton

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R34

39 Cotlaws, Kirkliston

+0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R35

1 Beatly Road, Winchburgh

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R36

2 Millrig Cottages, Kirkliston

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R37

2 Newmains Road, Kirkliston

-0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R38

35 Main Street, Kirkliston

-0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R39

15 Springfield Terrace, South Queensferry

0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R40

1 Winchburgh Road, Winchburgh

0.9

Extremely Small

Negligible

R41

Newbigging Lodge, Dundas Home Farm

0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R42

21 Long Crook, South Queensferry

-0.7

Extremely Small

Negligible

R43

16 Main Street, Dalmeny

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R44

61 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R45

16 Bennet Wood Terrace, Winchburgh

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R46

Standingstone Cottage

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R47

21 Echline, South Queensferry

-1.5

Very Small

Slight Beneficial

R48

Queensferry Primary School, South Queensferry

-0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R49

Echline Primary School, South Queensferry

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R50

104 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible
R51 Inchgarvie House, South Queensferry +1.6 Very Small Slight Adverse

* This is the percentage change between the 2032 Do-Minimum and Do-Something concentrations reported in Table 15.20.

15.4.16 In 2017 the magnitude of change at all receptors except R11 (15 Ferry Barns Court), R12 (St. Margaret’s Hope Lodge), R25 (St. Margaret’s Hope) and R51 (Inchgarvie House) is extremely small. Receptors R11, R12, R25 and R51 are predicted to experience a very small change. The resulting significance with regards to PM concentrations at all receptors experiencing extremely small changes is Negligible and at receptors with very small changes it is Slight Beneficial (R11)10 or Slight Adverse (R12, R25, R51).

15.4.17 In 2032 the magnitude of change at the vast majority of receptors (90%) is extremely small. Receptors R11 (Ferry Barns Court), R12 (St. Margaret’s Hope Lodge), R25 (St. Margaret’s Hope), R47 (21 Echline) and R51 (Inchgarvie House) are predicted to experience very small changes. The resulting significance with regards to PM10 concentrations at most receptors is Negligible. The significance at Receptors R11 and R47 is Slight Beneficial, whilst it is predicted that receptors R12, R25 and R51 will experience Slight Adverse impacts.

15.4.18 The annual mean PM10 concentration contours for 2017 and 2032 for both the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios (Figures 15.13 to 15.16) (15.13, 15.14, 15.15 and 15.16) show that PM10 concentration objectives and limit values are met everywhere.

15.4.19 The difference contour plots (Figures 15.17 and 15.18) show that there are improvements with regards to local air quality around the Forth Road Bridge and deteriorations around areas of the Main Crossing due to changes in traffic flows in these areas. For annual mean PM10 concentrations these areas of improvement and deterioration are restricted to the immediate vicinity of the Forth Road Bridge and the Main Crossing.

PM2.5 Concentrations

15.4.20 Table 15.24 presents calculated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations for 2017 and 2032 for the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios.

Table 15.24: Modelled Annual Mean PM2.5 Concentrations (µg/m3)

No

Location

2005

2017

2032

Base

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

R1

18 Westfield Grove, Crossgates

12.7

9.2

9.2

9.0

9.0

R2

Ardshallah, Inverkeithing Road, Crossgates

12.5

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R3

18 Sandybank, Halbeath

12.7

9.2

9.2

9.0

9.0

R4

119 Dunfermline Rd, Crossgates

12.6

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

R5

Crossgates Primary School, Crossgates

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R6

Touch Primary School, Dunfermline

12.3

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R7

St Columba's High School, Dunfermline

12.3

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R8

71 Meldrum Court, Dunfermline

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R9

Mid Duloch Farm, Inverkeithing

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R10

Ferry Craig House, North Queensferry

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R11

15 Ferry Barns Court, North Queensferry

12.6

9.1

9.0

8.9

8.8

R12

St Margaret’s Hope Lodge, North Queensferry

12.3

9.0

9.2

8.8

9.0

R13

24 Ferry Hills Road, North Queensferry

12.6

9.0

9.1

8.9

8.9

R14

18 Whinny Hill Crescent, Inverkeithing

12.6

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

R15

The Bungalow, Dunfermline

12.5

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

R16

25 Park Lea, Rosyth

12.5

9.1

9.1

9.0

8.9

R17

Inverkeithing High School, Hillend Road

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R18

39 Burleigh Crescent, Inverkeithing

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R19

25 Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

12.5

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

R20

18 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

12.5

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R21

114 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

12.5

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R22

5 Mucklehill Park, Inverkeithing

12.6

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

R23

231 Queensferry Road, Rosyth

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R24

7 Letham Hill Way, Hillend

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R25

St Margaret's Hope, North Queensferry

12.3

9.0

9.5

8.8

9.3

R26

14 Farquhar Terrace, South Queensferry

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R27

Plewlands House, South Queensferry

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R28

45 Stoneyflats Crescent, South Queensferry

12.5

9.0

8.9

8.9

8.8

R29

10 Scotstoun Green, South Queensferry

12.5

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R30

68 Echline Drive, South Queensferry

12.4

9.0

9.1

8.8

8.9

R31

7 Linnmill, South Queensferry

12.3

8.9

9.0

8.7

8.8

R32

12 Dundas Home Farm

12.3

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R33

11 Main Street, Newton

12.6

9.1

9.2

9.0

9.0

R34

39 Cotlaws, Kirkliston

12.9

9.4

9.5

9.3

9.3

R35

1 Beatly Road, Winchburgh

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.9

8.9

R36

2 Millrig Cottages, Kirkliston

12.6

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

R37

2 Newmains Road, Kirkliston

12.4

9.1

9.0

8.9

8.8

R38

35 Main Street, Kirkliston

12.6

9.2

9.1

9.1

9.0

R39

15 Springfield Terrace, South Queensferry

12.3

8.9

9.0

8.7

8.8

R40

1 Winchburgh Road, Winchburgh

12.6

9.1

9.2

9.0

9.1

R41

Newbigging Lodge, Dundas Home Farm

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.9

R42

21 Long Crook, South Queensferry

12.5

9.0

9.0

8.9

8.8

R43

16 Main Street, Dalmeny

12.3

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R44

61 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

13.1

9.4

9.4

9.2

9.2

R45

16 Bennet Wood Terrace, Winchburgh

12.4

9.0

9.0

8.9

8.9

R46

Standingstone Cottage

12.3

8.9

8.9

8.7

8.7

R47

21 Echline, South Queensferry

12.8

9.2

9.1

9.1

8.9

R48

Queensferry Primary School, South Queensferry

12.5

9.0

9.0

8.9

8.8

R49

Echline Primary School, South Queensferry

12.3

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

R50

104 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

13.1

9.3

9.3

9.2

9.2
R51 Inchgarvie House, South Queensferry 12.3 8.9 9.1 8.7 8.9

15.4.21 The relevant objective for PM2.5 in Scotland is 12µg/m3 and is applicable from 2020. The model results show that this limit value is predicted to be met in both 2017 and 2032 at all receptors for the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios.

15.4.22 Tables 15.25 and 15.26 show the modelled percentage difference, resulting magnitude of change and significance in annual mean PM2.5 concentrations for 2017 and 2032.

Table 15.25: Assessment of Significance for PM2.5 in 2017

No

Location

2017

Modelled % Change*

Magnitude of Change

Significance

R1

18 Westfield Grove, Crossgates

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R2

Ardshallah, Inverkeithing Road, Crossgates

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R3

18 Sandybank, Halbeath

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R4

119 Dunfermline Rd, Crossgates

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R5

Crossgates Primary School, Crossgates

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R6

Touch Primary School, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R7

St Columba's High School, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R8

71 Meldrum Court, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R9

Mid Duloch Farm, Inverkeithing

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R10

Ferry Craig House, North Queensferry

-0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R11

15 Ferry Barns Court, North Queensferry

-1.5

Very Small

Slight Beneficial

R12

St Margaret’s Hope Lodge, North Queensferry

+2.2

Very Small

Slight Adverse

R13

24 Ferry Hills Road, North Queensferry

+0.6

Extremely Small

Negligible

R14

18 Whinny Hill Crescent, Inverkeithing

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R15

The Bungalow, Dunfermline

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R16

25 Park Lea, Rosyth

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R17

Inverkeithing High School, Hillend Road

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R18

39 Burleigh Crescent, Inverkeithing

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R19

25 Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R20

18 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

-0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R21

114 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R22

5 Mucklehill Park, Inverkeithing

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R23

231 Queensferry Road, Rosyth

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R24

7 Letham Hill Way, Hillend

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R25

St Margaret's Hope, North Queensferry

+6.0

Small

Slight Adverse

R26

14 Farquhar Terrace, South Queensferry

-0.4

Very Small

Slight Beneficial

R27

Plewlands House, South Queensferry

-0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R28

45 Stoneyflats Crescent, South Queensferry

-1.1

Very Small

Slight Beneficial

R29

10 Scotstoun Green, South Queensferry

-0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R30

68 Echline Drive, South Queensferry

+0.9

Extremely Small

Negligible

R31

7 Linnmill, South Queensferry

+0.6

Extremely Small

Negligible

R32

12 Dundas Home Farm

+0.6

Extremely Small

Negligible

R33

11 Main Street, Newton

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R34

39 Cotlaws, Kirkliston

+1.3

Very Small

Slight Adverse

R35

1 Beatly Road, Winchburgh

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R36

2 Millrig Cottages, Kirkliston

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R37

2 Newmains Road, Kirkliston

-0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R38

35 Main Street, Kirkliston

-0.8

Extremely Small

Negligible

R39

15 Springfield Terrace, South Queensferry

+0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R40

1 Winchburgh Road, Winchburgh

+0.7

Extremely Small

Negligible

R41

Newbigging Lodge, Dundas Home Farm

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R42

21 Long Crook, South Queensferry

-0.7

Extremely Small

Negligible

R43

16 Main Street, Dalmeny

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R44

61 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R45

16 Bennet Wood Terrace, Winchburgh

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R46

Standingstone Cottage

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R47

21 Echline, South Queensferry

-1.5

Very Small

Slight Beneficial

R48

Queensferry Primary School, South Queensferry

-0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R49

Echline Primary School, South Queensferry

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R50

104 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible
R51 Inchgarvie House, South Queensferry +2.1 Very Small Slight Adverse

Table 15.26: Assessment of Significance for PM2.5 in 2032

No

Location

2032

Modelled % Change*

Magnitude of Change

Significance

R1

18 Westfield Grove, Crossgates

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R2

Ardshallah, Inverkeithing Road, Crossgates

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R3

18 Sandybank, Halbeath

-0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R4

119 Dunfermline Rd, Crossgates

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R5

Crossgates Primary School, Crossgates

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R6

Touch Primary School, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R7

St Columba's High School, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R8

71 Meldrum Court, Dunfermline

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R9

Mid Duloch Farm, Inverkeithing

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R10

Ferry Craig House, North Queensferry

-0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R11

15 Ferry Barns Court, North Queensferry

-1.7

Very Small

Slight Beneficial

R12

St Margaret’s Hope Lodge, North Queensferry

+2.4

Very Small

Slight Adverse

R13

24 Ferry Hills Road, North Queensferry

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R14

18 Whinny Hill Crescent, Inverkeithing

+0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R15

The Bungalow, Dunfermline

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R16

25 Park Lea, Rosyth

-0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R17

Inverkeithing High School, Hillend Road

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R18

39 Burleigh Crescent, Inverkeithing

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R19

25 Admiralty Rd, Rosyth

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R20

18 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

-0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R21

114 Castlandhill Road, Rosyth

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R22

5 Mucklehill Park, Inverkeithing

+0.6

Extremely Small

Negligible

R23

231 Queensferry Road, Rosyth

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R24

7 Letham Hill Way, Hillend

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R25

St Margaret's Hope, North Queensferry

+6.3

Small

Slight Adverse

R26

14 Farquhar Terrace, South Queensferry

-0.6

Extremely Small

Negligible

R27

Plewlands House, South Queensferry

-0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R28

45 Stoneyflats Crescent, South Queensferry

-1.2

Very Small

Slight Beneficial

R29

10 Scotstoun Green, South Queensferry

-0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R30

68 Echline Drive, South Queensferry

+0.9

Extremely Small

Negligible

R31

7 Linnmill, South Queensferry

+0.6

Extremely Small

Negligible

R32

12 Dundas Home Farm

+0.7

Extremely Small

Negligible

R33

11 Main Street, Newton

+0.2

Extremely Small

Negligible

R34

39 Cotlaws, Kirkliston

+0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R35

1 Beatly Road, Winchburgh

+0.3

Extremely Small

Negligible

R36

2 Millrig Cottages, Kirkliston

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R37

2 Newmains Road, Kirkliston

-0.4

Extremely Small

Negligible

R38

35 Main Street, Kirkliston

-0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R39

15 Springfield Terrace, South Queensferry

+0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R40

1 Winchburgh Road, Winchburgh

+1.3

Very Small

Slight Adverse

R41

Newbigging Lodge, Dundas Home Farm

+0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R42

21 Long Crook, South Queensferry

-0.9

Extremely Small

Negligible

R43

16 Main Street, Dalmeny

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R44

61 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

+0.1

Extremely Small

Negligible

R45

16 Bennet Wood Terrace, Winchburgh

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R46

Standingstone Cottage

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R47

21 Echline, South Queensferry

-2.1

Very Small

Slight Beneficial

R48

Queensferry Primary School, South Queensferry

-0.5

Extremely Small

Negligible

R49

Echline Primary School, South Queensferry

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible

R50

104 Glasgow Road, Newbridge

0.0

Extremely Small

Negligible
R51 Inchgarvie House, South Queensferry +2.2 Very Small Negligible

15.4.23 The results show that for the majority of modelled receptors for both 2017 and 2032 the magnitude of change is extremely small and the resulting significance is Negligible. In 2017 there are three receptors (R12 St. Margaret’s Hope Lodge; R34 39 Cotlaws; R51 Inchgarvie House) which are forecast to experience very small increases of PM2.5 concentrations and one receptor (R25 St. Margaret’s Hope) which is predicted to experience a small magnitude of change. The resulting significance for these three receptors is Slight Adverse. The results further show that receptors R11 (15 Ferry Barns Court), R26 (14 Farquhar Terrace), R28 (45 Stoneyflatts Crescent) and R47 (21 Echline) are forecast to experience a very small improvement with regards to PM2.5 concentrations. The resulting significance for these receptors is Slight Beneficial.

15.4.24 In 2032 there are three receptors which are forecast to be subject to Slight Adverse impacts and three receptors are predicted to experience Slight Beneficial impacts.

Population Exposure

15.4.25 As described in paragraphs 15.2.36-15.2.37, population exposure to changes in pollutant concentrations greater than 1% of the relevant air quality objective and limit value was established for NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations. For NO2, all properties that are predicted to experience changes in NO2 concentrations of ≥ 0.4µg/m3 (deterioration) and ≤ -0.4µg/m3 (improvement) were counted and are shown in Table 15.27 below. The PM10 difference contour plots for 2017 and 2032 were interrogated to establish property counts for receptors predicted to experience changes in PM10 concentrations of ≥ 0.18µg/m3 (deterioration) and ≤ -0.18µg/m3 (improvement). Equally, difference plots for PM2.5 concentrations were created and used to establish the number and percentage of receptors predicted to experience an improvement or deterioration of more than 1% of the applicable limit value (i.e.± 0.12µg/m3).

15.4.26 According to the address point data there is a total of 50,655 properties within the local air quality study area. It should be noted that the address point data do not include any future year developments and hence these were not considered in the assessment of population exposure. Table 15.27 below shows numbers of properties that are predicted to experience an improvement and numbers of properties predicted to experience a deterioration of air quality in both 2017 and 2032. The table also shows associated percentages of the total of 50,655 properties within the study area.

Table 15.27: Population Exposure to Changes in Pollutant Concentrations

 

2017

2032

Properties

Percentage

Properties

Percentage

NO2

Improvement

1225

2.4%

936

1.8%

Deterioration

633

1.2%

652

1.3%

PM10

Improvement

16

0.03%

20

0.04%

Deterioration

35

0.07%

28

0.06%

PM2.5

Improvement

55

0.11%

48

0.09%

Deterioration

63

0.12%

67

0.13%

15.4.27 With regards to NO2, the results in Table 15.27 show that in both 2017 and 2032 more properties benefit from the proposed scheme than are negatively affected. The percentage of properties within the local study area affected by the proposed scheme is very small (4% in 2017 and 3% in 2032).

15.4.28 The results in Table 15.27 further show that for PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations, more properties are predicted to experience a worsening than benefiting from the proposed scheme. However, the numbers of properties affected by changes in PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations (positively or negatively) is extremely small (< 0.10% for PM10 and < 0.25% for PM2.5 respectively).

15.4.29 The population exposure assessment shows that in general impacts on local air quality resulting from the proposed scheme are fairly localised and focused around the northern and southern bridge heads and access roads. The difference between numbers of properties predicted to experience an improvement and numbers of properties predicted to experience deterioration of local air quality is very small. The proposed scheme can therefore be described as neutral with regards to population exposure.

Nitrogen Deposition

15.4.30 Table 15.14 in Section 15.3 shows the existing nitrogen deposition rates in 2005 for the three assessed designated sites. The table shows that in 2005 the lower levels of critical load bands (exposure below which significant harmful effects do not occur according to present knowledge) are exceeded for all assessed SSSIs, with the exception of Ferry Hills SSSI.

15.4.31 The results of the nitrogen deposition calculations for 2017 and 2032 are contained below with the significance of the identified impacts discussed in Chapter 10 (Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecology).

Firth of Forth SSSI

15.4.32 The Firth of Forth designated site stretches along the coast and is intersected by both the proposed new scheme and the Forth Road Bridge. In order to establish nitrogen deposition rates associated with both roads, two representative locations were assessed. One (Unit 1) is located approximately 175m east of the Main Crossing and the second one (Unit 2) is cut by the Forth Road Bridge.

15.4.33 There is a trend of reduced dry deposition rates and total deposition rates between the assessed years 2017 and 2032 with or without the proposed scheme. In 2017 total deposition rates are just over the lower band of the critical load range (i.e. 10kg N/ha/yr) and below it in 2032. The results of estimating nitrogen deposition at the Firth of Forth designated site in 2017 are presented in Table 15.28 and discussed in more detail in the paragraph below.

Table 15.28: Nitrogen Deposition at the Firth of Forth SSSI in 2017 (Kg N/ha/yr)

Transect Distance

Dry Deposition Rate on Transect in 2017

Total Deposition Rate in 2017

Critical Load

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Unit 1

10-35

175m

2.66

2.72

10.17

10.23

200m

2.67

2.72

10.17

10.23

Unit 2

0m

2.68

2.67

10.18

10.18

50m

2.69

2.67

10.20

10.18

100m

2.71

2.67

10.21

10.18

150m

2.72

2.67

10.23

10.18

200m

2.72

2.67

10.23

10.18

15.4.34 The predicted contribution from local traffic to nitrogen deposition rates at the Firth of Forth SSSI unit 1 in 2017 varies between 2.66 kg N/ha/yr at 175m in the Do-Minimum scenario and 2.72 kg N/ha/yr at 175m in Do-Something scenario.

15.4.35 The highest dry nitrogen deposition increase in 2017 resulting from the proposed scheme at unit 1 is 0.06 kg N/ha/yr, which is an increase of less than 1% of the total deposition. The predicted increase in total nitrogen deposition rates would lead to an increase in exceedance of the lower band of the critical load for neutral grassland, fen, marsh and swamp, however, these locations are still within the upper band of the critical load range.

15.4.36 The dry deposition rates along the transect of unit 2 increase in the 2017 Do-Minimum scenario with increased distance. This is due to the fact that the designated site is close to the Forth Road Bridge, which is elevated at that point. Pollutant concentrations at ground level near the bridge are dispersed to lower concentrations.

15.4.37 Total deposition rates at unit 2 decrease when comparing the Do-Minimum with the Do-Something scenario. The calculated total deposition rates for unit 2 suggest that in 2017 deposition rates will exceed the lower band of the critical load in both the Do-Minimum scenario and the Do-Something scenario. However, total deposition rates are below the upper band of the critical load range.

15.4.38 Table 15.29 shows nitrogen deposition rates at the two assessed Firth of Forth designated site units in 2032.

Table 15.29: Nitrogen Deposition at the Firth of Forth SSSI in 2032 (Kg N/ha/yr)

Transect Distance

Dry Deposition Rate on Transect in 2032

Total Deposition Rate in 2032

Critical Load

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Unit 1

10-35

175m

2.52

2.57

7.63

7.69

200m

2.52

2.57

7.64

7.69

Unit 2

0m

2.53

2.52

7.65

7.64

50m

2.55

2.52

7.66

7.64

100m

2.57

2.52

7.68

7.64

150m

2.58

2.52

7.69

7.64

200m

2.59

2.52

7.70

7.64

15.4.39 The results for unit 1 show that there is an increase in dry deposition of 0.05 Kg N/ha/yr between the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenario, which is an increase of less than 1% of the total deposition. As described for the 2017 scenarios, dry deposition and total deposition rates decrease between the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenario at unit 2. In 2032 total deposition rates are below the critical load range for both the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenario.

Ferry Hills SSSI

15.4.40 The Ferry Hills SSSI is broken down into several units along the northern bridge approach corridor. As traffic volumes, speeds and percentages vary along the A90, the assessment has been carried out separately for different units.

15.4.41 Both dry deposition rates and total deposition rates decrease between 2017 and 2032. Total deposition rates are below the upper band of the critical load range in 2017 and 2032 for both the Do-Minimum scenario and Do-Something scenario but slightly exceed the lower band of the range in 2017. Table 15.30 shows nitrogen deposition at the Ferry Hills SSSI in 2017.

Table 15.30: Nitrogen Deposition at Ferry Hills SSSI in 2017 (Kg N/ha/yr)

Transect Distance

Dry Deposition Rate on Transect in 2017

Total Deposition Rate in 2017

Critical Load

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Unit 1

0m

3.01

2.71

10.52

10.22

15-25

50m

2.79

2.70

10.30

10.21

100m

2.74

2.69

10.24

10.20

150m

2.69

2.67

10.19

10.18

200m

2.70

2.68

10.21

10.19

Unit 2

57m

2.88

2.89

10.39

10.40

15-25

100m

2.82

2.84

10.33

10.35

150m

2.79

2.80

10.30

10.31

200m

2.77

2.78

10.27

10.29

Unit 3

0m

3.09

3.11

10.60

10.62

15-25

50m

2.81

2.84

10.32

10.35

100m

2.75

2.78

10.26

10.29

150m

2.72

2.75

10.23

10.26

200m

2.70

2.74

10.20

10.25

15.4.42 Dry deposition rates along unit 1 decrease by up to 0.30 kg N/ha/yr next to the existing road (0m distance), due to the fact that the majority of traffic is shifted away from this unit. Dry deposition rates at unit 2 increase by between 0.01 Kg N/ha/yr and 0.02 kg N/ha/yr at all distances along the transect when comparing the Do-Minimum with the Do-Something scenario. Dry deposition rates at unit 3 increase by up to 0.04 kg N/ha/yr (at 200m distances) when comparing the Do-Minimum with the Do-Something scenario. Table 15.31 shows nitrogen deposition rates in 2032.

Table 15.31: Nitrogen Deposition at Ferry Hills SSSI in 2032 (Kg N/ha/yr)

Transect Distance

Dry Deposition Rate on Transect in 2032

Total Deposition Rate in 2032

Critical Load

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Unit 1

0m

2.88

2.56

7.87

7.55

15-25

50m

2.65

2.55

7.64

7.53

100m

2.59

2.54

7.58

7.52

150m

2.54

2.52

7.53

7.50

200m

2.56

2.53

7.55

7.51

Unit 2

57m

2.73

2.76

7.72

7.74

15-25

100m

2.68

2.70

7.66

7.69

150m

2.64

2.66

7.63

7.65

200m

2.62

2.64

7.60

7.62

Unit 3

0m

2.96

2.97

7.94

7.96

15-25

50m

2.67

2.69

7.66

7.68

100m

2.61

2.63

7.60

7.62

150m

2.58

2.60

7.57

7.59

200m

2.57

2.59

7.56

7.58

15.4.43 In 2032 dry deposition rates for unit 1 decrease by up to 0.32 kg N/ha/yr in the immediate vicinity of the existing road (0m distance). Dry deposition rates at unit 2 increase by 0.03 kg N/ha/yr at 57m (closest point to road) and by 0.02 kg N/ha/yr at 100m, 150m and 200m distances along the transect when comparing the Do-Minimum with the Do-Something scenario. Dry deposition rates at unit 3 increase by up to 0.02 kg N/ha/yr.

St. Margaret’s Marsh SSSI

15.4.44 Total deposition rates along a transect in St. Margaret’s Marsh SSSI are below the critical load in 2017 and 2032 for both the Do-Minimum scenario and Do-Something scenario. Tables 15.32 and Table 15.33 show the nitrogen deposition results at St. Margaret’s Marsh SSSI.

Table 15.32: Nitrogen Deposition at St. Margaret’s Marsh SSSI in 2017 (Kg N/ha/yr)

Transect Distance

Dry Deposition Rate on Transect in 2017

Total Deposition Rate in 2017

Critical Load

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

0m

2.75

2.91

10.25

10.42

10-35

50m

2.71

2.78

10.22

10.29

100m

2.69

2.74

10.20

10.25

150m

2.67

2.72

10.18

10.22

200m

2.66

2.70

10.17

10.21

Table 15.33: Nitrogen Deposition at St. Margaret’s Marsh SSSI in 2032 (Kg N/ha/yr)

Transect Distance

Dry Deposition Rate on Transect in 2032

Total Deposition Rate in 2032

Critical Load

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

0m

2.60

2.77

7.72

7.89

10-35

50m

2.56

2.63

7.68

7.75

100m

2.54

2.59

7.66

7.70

150m

2.52

2.57

7.64

7.68

200m

2.51

2.55

7.63

7.67

15.4.45 The results in Tables 15.32 and 15.33 show that whilst there is a small increase in dry deposition between the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenario (0.16 kg N/ha/yr at 0m distance in 2017 and 0.17 kg N/ha/yr in 2032), total deposition rates in 2017 are within the upper band of the critical load range for both the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios (there is a small exceedance of the lower band of the critical load range in 2017). In 2032 total deposition rates are below the lower band of the critical load range for both the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios.

NOx Concentration

15.4.46 Table 15.34 below shows NOx concentrations at assessed designated sites for 2005, 2017 and 2032.

Table 15.34: NOx Concentrations at Designated Conservation Sites (µg/m3)

Designated Site

Base

2017 NOx Concentration

2032 NOx Concentration

2005

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Firth of Forth SSSI Unit 1

37.5

39.6

41.5

37.4

39.2

Firth of Forth SSSI Unit 2

40.3

41.3

39.9

39.2

37.6

Ferry Hills SSSI Unit 1

74.3

60.6

42.0

58.9

39.6

Ferry Hills SSSI Unit 2

49.5

47.2

47.6

45.1

45.9

Ferry Hills SSSI Unit 3

87.1

65.9

66.1

58.9

64.2

St Margaret’s Marsh SSSI

42.3

42.5

50.7

40.3

48.9

15.4.47 The results in Table 15.34 show that the limit value for the protection of ecosystems and vegetation of 30µg/m3 is exceeded at all locations and all scenarios. However, due to the vicinity of the M9 and Edinburgh in the south as well as the M90 and Rosyth/ Dunfermline in the north, the limit value does not apply to these SSSIs (as indicated in Table 15.1).

Assessment of Screened-in Links outside Local Study Area

15.4.48 In order to determine the potential impact of the proposed scheme at areas outside the local study area, traffic data obtained from the TMfS:05a were screened using the DMRB criteria as described in paragraph 15.2.13. Figure 15.2 shows links outside the study area which meet the DMRB criteria. Screened-in road links are mainly links along motorways or busy ‘A’ roads (M9, M876, A876, A985, A92, M90 and A90) and it can be expected that vehicle number changes slightly above the DMRB criteria would not have significant impacts on local air quality. However, an additional assessment was carried out at seven locations potentially affected by the proposed scheme, namely, Linlithgow, Polmont, Kincardine, High Valleyfield, Kelty, Cowdenbeath and Edinburgh. ADMS-Roads was used to assess air quality impacts at residential properties in the vicinity of screened-in links. Other than traffic data, the same model inputs as used for the main study were used in this additional assessment.

15.4.49 Table 15.35 shows NO2 concentrations at discrete receptor locations in the seven areas listed above.

Table 15.35: Annual Mean NO2 Concentrations at Receptor Locations in Additional Assessment Areas

Receptor Location

Grid Reference

2017

2032

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Linlithgow

1 Clark Avenue

299267, 677585

27.9

27.9

27.0

27.0

Loch House

299317, 677695

27.4

27.4

26.5

26.5

30 Clark Avenue

298955, 677635

27.7

27.7

26.8

26.8

74 St Ninians Road

299427, 677580

27.7

27.7

26.9

26.9

6 Parkhead Road

299624, 677584

27.5

27.5

26.6

26.6

Polmont

32 Eastcroft Drive

294018, 678901

27.6

27.5

27.2

27.3

41 Orchard Grove

293755, 679060

27.6

27.6

27.4

27.5

4 Eastcroft Drive

294250, 678772

27.3

27.2

26.9

27.0

Kincardine

45 Keith Street

292949, 687322

25.8

25.7

24.7

24.6

31 Silver Street

292957, 687283

25.8

25.7

24.7

24.6

26 Forth Street

292909, 687328

25.9

25.8

24.8

24.7

13 Orchard Grove

293031, 687248

25.4

25.4

24.2

24.1

Kelty

23 Blair Drive

313462, 693962

27.9

28.1

26.4

26.6

38 Clentry Crescent

313434, 694013

28.0

28.2

26.5

26.7

1 Dullomuir Drive

313295, 694381

28.1

28.1

26.5

26.7

16 Clentry Crescent

313371, 694116

28.7

28.7

27.1

27.3

Cowdenbeath

Birnie Ridge, 2 Bridge Street

316842, 691087

28.4

28.4

27.5

27.5

3 Paterson Lane

316847, 691161

27.3

27.3

26.0

26.0

Edinburgh

624 Queensferry Road

318005, 675293

27.1

27.1

25.8

25.8

564 Queensferry Road

318545, 674990

29.2

29.2

28.0

27.9

7 Maybury Road

318621, 674917

28.4

28.3

26.9

26.9

20 Strathalmond Green

318015, 675197

27.2

27.2

25.9

25.9

10 Maybury Road

318540, 674940

28.2

28.2

26.9

26.9

453 Queensferry Road

319627, 674985

29.6

29.6

28.2

28.2

1c Clermiston Road North

320004, 675052

30.1

30.1

28.6

28.7

393 Queensferry Road

320531, 675108

29.3

29.4

27.8

27.9

224 Drum Brae Drive

319074, 674217

27.0

27.1

25.4

25.6

66 Clermiston Road North

320204, 674516

27.7

27.9

26.0

26.3

15.4.50 The results in Table 15.35 show that the difference in NO2 concentrations in 2017 at all receptors is extremely small to very small (≤ 0.3µg/m3). There are extremely small improvements at some locations (Polmont, Kincardine, Edinburgh) and very small increases in pollutant concentrations at other locations (Linlithgow, Kelty, Edinburgh). The resulting significance at all receptors in 2017 is Negligible. In 2032, concentration differences between the Do-Minimum and the Do-Something scenarios range from extremely small to very small at all locations, resulting in an extremely small to very small magnitude of change. Due to the fact that total NO2 concentrations modelled are well below the objective, the overall significance at all receptors in 2032 is Negligible.

15.4.51 Table 15.36 below shows annual mean PM10 concentrations at the assessed receptor points.

Table 15.36: Annual Mean PM10 Concentrations at Receptor Locations in Additional Assessment Areas

Receptor Location

Grid Reference

2017

2032

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Linlithgow

1 Clark Avenue

299267, 677585

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

Loch House

299317, 677695

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

30 Clark Avenue

298955, 677635

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

74 St Ninians Road

299427, 677580

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

6 Parkhead Road

299624, 677584

14.1

14.1

13.9

13.9

Polmont

32 Eastcroft Drive

294018, 678901

14.2

14.1

14.1

14.1

41 Orchard Grove

293755, 679060

14.2

14.2

14.2

14.1

4 Eastcroft Drive

294250, 678772

14.1

14.1

14.1

14.1

Kincardine

45 Keith Street

292949, 687322

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

31 Silver Street

292957, 687283

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

26 Forth Street

292909, 687328

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

13 Orchard Grove

293031, 687248

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

Kelty

23 Blair Drive

313462, 693962

14.1

14.2

14.0

14.0

38 Clentry Crescent

313434, 694013

14.2

14.2

14.0

14.1

1 Dullomuir Drive

313295, 694381

14.2

14.2

14.0

14.1

16 Clentry Crescent

313371, 694116

14.3

14.4

14.2

14.3

Cowdenbeath

Birnie Ridge, 2 Bridge Street

316842, 691087

14.3

14.3

14.2

14.2

3 Paterson Lane

316847, 691161

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.8

Edinburgh

624 Queensferry Road

318005, 675293

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

564 Queensferry Road

318545, 674990

14.3

14.3

14.2

14.2

7 Maybury Road

318621, 674917

14.2

14.2

14.0

14.0

20 Strathalmond Green

318015, 675197

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

10 Maybury Road

318540, 674940

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

453 Queensferry Road

319627, 674985

14.2

14.2

14.1

14.1

1c Clermiston Road North

320004, 675052

14.2

14.2

14.1

14.1

393 Queensferry Road

320531, 675108

14.1

14.1

14.0

14.0

224 Drum Brae Drive

319074, 674217

14.1

14.2

14.0

14.0

66 Clermiston Road North

320204, 674516

14.1

14.1

13.9

13.9

15.4.52 The assessment shows that there are almost no changes in PM10 concentrations between the Do-Minimum and the Do-Something scenarios in both assessed years. There are four receptors in 2017 that experience a 0.1µg/m3 change and four receptors in 2032 that are predicted to experience a 0.1µg/m3 change. The resulting significance for all receptors in both years is Negligible.

15.4.53 Table 15.37 shows annual mean PM2.5 concentrations at the assessed receptor locations.

Table 15.37: Annual Mean PM2.5 Concentrations at Receptor Locations in Additional Assessment Areas

Receptor Location

Grid Reference

2017

2032

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Do-Minimum

Do-Something

Linlithgow

1 Clark Avenue

299267, 677585

9.1

9.1

9.0

8.9

Loch House

299317, 677695

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

30 Clark Avenue

298955, 677635

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

74 St Ninians Road

299427, 677580

9.1

9.1

9.0

9.0

6 Parkhead Road

299624, 677584

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

Polmont

32 Eastcroft Drive

294018, 678901

9.1

9.1

9.0

9.0

41 Orchard Grove

293755, 679060

9.2

9.2

9.1

9.1

4 Eastcroft Drive

294250, 678772

9.1

9.1

9.0

9.0

Kincardine

45 Keith Street

292949, 687322

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

31 Silver Street

292957, 687283

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

26 Forth Street

292909, 687328

8.9

9.0

8.8

8.8

13 Orchard Grove

293031, 687248

8.9

8.9

8.8

8.8

Kelty

23 Blair Drive

313462, 693962

9.1

9.1

9.0

9.0

38 Clentry Crescent

313434, 694013

9.1

9.2

9.0

9.0

1 Dullomuir Drive

313295, 694381

9.2

9.2

9.0

9.0

16 Clentry Crescent

313371, 694116

9.3

9.3

9.1

9.2

Cowdenbeath

Birnie Ridge, 2 Bridge Street

316842, 691087

9.2

9.0

9.1

9.1

3 Paterson Lane

316847, 691161

9.0

8.9

8.8

8.8

Edinburgh

624 Queensferry Road

318005, 675293

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

564 Queensferry Road

318545, 674990

9.3

9.3

9.1

9.1

7 Maybury Road

318621, 674917

9.2

9.2

8.9

9.0

20 Strathalmond Green

318015, 675197

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

10 Maybury Road

318540, 674940

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

453 Queensferry Road

319627, 674985

9.2

9.2

9.0

9.0

1c Clermiston Road North

320004, 675052

9.2

9.2

9.0

9.0

393 Queensferry Road

320531, 675108

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

224 Drum Brae Drive

319074, 674217

9.1

9.1

8.9

9.0

66 Clermiston Road North

320204, 674516

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

15.4.54 The results in Table 15.37 show that at the majority of assessed receptor points there are no changes in PM2.5 concentrations as a result of the proposed scheme. In 2017 there are two receptors that are predicted to experience very small decreases in PM2.5 concentrations (£ 0.2µg/m3) and two receptors that are forecast to experience a 0.1µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration.

15.4.55 In 2032 there are four receptors that are predicted to experience a 0.1µg/m3 change in PM2.5 concentrations. The resulting significance for all receptors with unchanged or decreased PM2.5 concentrations is Negligible, whilst the significance for two receptors, that are predicted to experience a very small increase in PM2.5 concentrations, is Slight Adverse.

15.4.56 It can be concluded that the overall impact on local air quality in the vicinity of the assessed links is of Negligible significance at the vast majority of receptors.

Impacts on Regional Air Quality

15.4.57 Table 15.38 shows total emissions for the road network covered in the TMfS:05a for 2005 (base year), 2017 Do-Minimum and 2017 Do-Something scenarios as well as total distance travelled in each scenario and emissions per kilometre travelled

Table 15.38: Total Emissions within TMfS:05a Network 2017 (tonnes per annum) and Total Kilometres Travelled

Pollutant

Emissions 2005

Emissions 2017 Do-Minimum

Emissions 2017 Do-Something

Difference 2005/2017 Do-Minimum

Difference 2017DM/2017 Do-Something

NOx

38,212

19,698

19,726

- 18,514

28

PM10

1,222

549

551

- 673

2

CO2

8,424,191

8,504,674

8,519,626

80,483

14,952

Total Km travelled

2005

2017 Do-Minimum

2017 Do-Something

Difference 2005/2017 Do-Minimum

Difference 2017DM/2017 Do-Something
 

89,171,204

103,955,050

104,194,154

14,783,846

239,104

15.4.58 Predicted total emissions for NOx and PM10 decrease in 2017 when comparing them to the 2005 base case, whereas CO2 emissions rose between 2005 and 2017. This is likely to be a result of different emission factor trends between 2005 and 2017. Emission factors for all pollutants decrease with time, mirroring predicted improvements in vehicle technology and fuel efficiency, however, the decrease of emission factors for NOx and PM10 is much greater compared with the decrease of CO2 emission factors. Increasing overall vehicle kilometres travelled overrides the improvements of emissions for CO2, resulting in an overall increase in total emissions.

15.4.59 There is an increase in emissions for NOx, PM10 and CO2 when comparing the 2017 Do-Minimum and 2017 Do-Something scenarios. It should be noted that the increase in emissions between the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios is consistent with the increase in vehicle kilometres travelled along the traffic links selected for the regional air quality assessment.

15.4.60 Table 15.39 shows total emissions for the road network covered in the TMfS:05a for 2005 (base year), 2032 Do-Minimum and 2032 Do-Something.

Table 15.39: Total Emissions within TMfS:05a Network 2032 (tonnes per annum) and Total Kilometres Travelled

Pollutant

Emissions 2005

Emissions 2032 Do-Minimum

Emissions 2032 Do-Something

Difference 2005/2032 Do-Minimum

Difference 2032DM/2032 Do-Something

NOx

38,212

23,913

23,952

- 14,299

39

PM10

1,222

670

672

- 552

2

CO2

8,424,191

10,308,297

10,328,614

1,884,106

20,317

Total Km travelled

2005

2032 Do-Minimum

2032 Do-Something

Difference 2005/2032 Do-Minimum

Difference 2032DM/2032 Do-Something
 

89,171,204

122,556,837

122,922,679

33,385,633

365,842

15.4.61 Predicted total emissions for NOx and PM10 decrease in 2032 when comparing them to the 2005 base case, whereas CO2 emissions raise between 2005 and 2032 (for the reasons explained in paragraphs above). There is an increase in emissions for NOx, PM10 and CO2 when comparing the 2032 Do-Minimum and 2032 Do-Something scenarios. As was the case in 2017, the increase in emissions between the Do-Minimum and Do-Something scenarios is consistent with the increase in vehicle kilometres travelled along the traffic links selected for the regional air quality assessment.

15.4.62 The national emission inventory for Scotland shows that the contribution from the transport sector to NOx and PM10 emissions in 2006 was 71.8 kilotonnes and 4.4 kilotonnes respectively (NAEI, 2008). In 2032 the scheme is predicted to contribute 39 tonnes of NOx and 2 tonnes of PM10, which is less that 0.1% of the total transport emissions in Scotland in 2006. With regard to CO2 emissions, the contribution from the proposed scheme in 2032 is 20,317 tonnes, which represents 0.16% of total transport sector emissions in Scotland in 2007 (12.4 million tonnes) (Scottish Government, 2009).

15.4.63 The National Emissions Ceiling Directive (NECD) includes upper limit targets of total UK pollutant emissions to be achieved by 2010. Pollutants included in this Directive are SO2, NOx, VOCs and ammonia (NH3). The upper limit for total NOx emissions in the UK in 2010 is 1167 kilotonnes. The predicted contribution of the proposed scheme to NOx emissions in 2032 is 39 tonnes, approximately 0.003% of the 2010 limit value.

15.4.64 The effect of releasing CO2 to the atmosphere is a contribution to climate change and consequent impacts such as sea level rise, flooding and a shift in rainfall patterns. There is international consensus that human activity is the one of the primary drivers of the observed changes in the global climate. This is based on long term measurements of climatic conditions and the results of a number of climate change models. The main human influence on the global climate is emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2. At present, just over 7 billion tonnes of CO2 is emitted globally each year through fossil fuel use, and an additional 1.6 billion tonnes are emitted by land use change, largely by deforestation. In the context of these fluxes, the impact of any single development or infrastructure project will always be insignificant in terms of direct impact on climate change. It is however noted that, although relatively small, the increase in CO2 emissions is contrary to the targets of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 which has a requirement to reduce emissions by 42% in 2020 (interim target) and 80% by 2050. Therefore the increase in CO2 as a result of the proposed scheme will require offsetting by greater reductions elsewhere within Scotland.

15.4.65 The carbon cost of the proposed scheme is presented in the DMRB Scheme Assessment Report, Part C.

15.5 Mitigation

15.5.1 The predicted impacts on local air quality as a result of the proposed scheme are generally very small, therefore no mitigation measures are proposed with respect to operational traffic.

15.6 Residual Impacts

Local Air Quality

15.6.1 As described in Section 15.4 the majority of modelled receptors are predicted to experience Negligible significance impacts as a result of the proposed scheme. However, there is one receptor that is predicted to experience Moderate Adverse significance impacts with regards to NO2 concentrations in 2017 and four modelled receptors are forecast to experience Slight Adverse significance impacts. There are four receptors in 2017 and three receptors in 2032 that are forecast to experience Slight Beneficial significance impacts.

15.6.2 The receptors chosen as discrete receptors are considered to be representative for all sensitive receptors in the local study area. The generated contour plots show that at all sensitive receptor locations within the study area pollutant concentrations are below the relevant objective and limit values with or without the proposed scheme.

15.6.3 The population exposure assessment shows that impacts on local air quality resulting from the proposed scheme are fairly localised and focussed around the northern and southern bridge heads. Up to 4% of properties within the study area are predicted to experience changes in NO2 concentrations. In 2032 approximately 1.8% are forecast to experience improvements and 1.3% are predicted to experience a deterioration of local air quality with regards to NO2. The numbers of properties affected by changes in PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations (positively or negatively) is extremely small (<0.10% and <0.25% respectively).

Changes in Nitrogen Deposition

15.6.4 Generally, total nitrogen deposition rates decrease between the base year 2005 and future years of 2017 and 2032. At all of the modelled SSSIs, total deposition rates slightly exceed the lower band of the critical load range (i.e. 10kg N/ha/yr) in 2017 but are below it in 2032 (rates are within the upper band of the critical load range in both years). The significance of the identified nitrogen deposition impacts is discussed in Chapter 10 (Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecology).

Regional Air Quality

15.6.5 The regional air quality assessment shows that total emissions of NOx, PM10 and CO2 are predicted to increase as a result of the proposed scheme. This is consistent with the increase in vehicle kilometres travelled across the regional assessment study area which drives the increase in total emissions.

15.7 Sensitivity Testing of CO2 Emissions Using Paramics / PHEM Modelling

15.7.1 CO2 emissions reported earlier in this chapter are based on traffic flows from the strategic traffic model, TMfS:05A as explained in Section 15.2. This approach uses Standard Department for Transport formulae (DMRB emission factors) to calculate CO2 emissions based on model output speeds and volumes. This approach forecasts modest increases in CO2 emissions, associated with the introduction of the proposed scheme.

15.7.2 Use of the strategic traffic model has the advantage of wide network coverage, so all of the network effects of the proposed scheme will be encompassed by the assessment. The methodology used to calculate emissions is consistent with many other road projects assessed in Scotland in recent years and it is recognised as the current best practice. However, the CO2 calculations are based on average speeds and this approach is not capable of assessing the local impact of stop-start traffic conditions.

15.7.3 A new Passenger car and Heavy-duty Emission Model (PHEM2) based emissions calculation module has been developed. This can be used with microsimulation models such as S-Paramics (referred to generically as Paramics)3.  The emissions evaluation using S-Paramics with PHEM relationships is a technique being developed on behalf of Transport Scotland, but not yet fully approved for use in scheme appraisal. The information obtained from this evaluation tool has been used to supplement the strategic calculations which are based on the Department for Transport formulae. The PHEM based results are intended to provide a more informed view of the likely locally generated impact of the proposed scheme.

15.7.4 The PHEM model output is a series of emission factors, based on vehicle type, vehicle speed, vehicle loading and vehicle acceleration.  This method calculates the rate of emission for each vehicle at each simulated timestep.  The use of PHEM emissions relationships with the S-Paramics model offers the ability to take into account emissions from stop-start motoring, which is not fully reflected within the global evaluation within the air quality model which is based on traffic information from the Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS). The local PHEM based assessment therefore examines the localised effect of stop start motoring conditions on the congested approaches to the Forth Road Bridge and the localised benefits to be derived from relieving these conditions. It is recognised that this local assessment does not quantify wider impacts outwith the S-Paramics model area.

15.7.5 Traffic conditions in peak periods within the vicinity of the Forth Road Bridge are frequently congested.  The established and standard methodology for calculating CO2 emissions, (based on the Department for Transport formulae), relies on average traffic speed as the basis for calculation.  In comparison to the Do-Minimum, the proposed scheme will result in smoother traffic flows and improved journey time reliability.  The average speed calculated on the network, using the Department for Transport method, in the vicinity of the scheme in the Do-Minimum scenario, reflects a range of emissions conditions from traffic which is variously accelerating, braking, idling and cruising, rather than travelling steadily at that average speed.  One of the features of the Managed Crossing Scheme is that traffic will be controlled to improve flow conditions and hence, reduce emission rates, compared with the current conditions.

15.7.6 Tests were undertaken using the S-Paramics / PHEM module to compare Do-Something traffic emissions with Do-Minimum emissions in the AM and PM modelled periods for 2017 forecasts. The scheme design in conjunction with ITS operation will result in improved fuel efficiency and lower emissions per kilometre. However, the Do-Something scheme involves additional travel distance for cross Forth traffic and additional traffic demand which result in increased CO2 emissions.

15.7.7 The additional CO2 emissions for the AM period are forecast to be 3.7 tonnes in the AM period and 14.7 tonnes in the PM period. These forecasts relate to AM and PM periods during average week day traffic. The proposed scheme involves some additional travel distance to cross the Forth and attracts more traffic to this part of the network. As a result of these two factors, the travel distance in terms of vehicle kilometres is expected to increase in the Do-Something scheme, compared with the Do-Minimum comparator.

15.7.8 Results of the test are presented in Tables 15.40 and 15.41.

Table 15.40: Total CO2 Emissions within the Paramics Network in 2017 (tonnes)

Pollutant

Emissions 2017 Do-Minimum

Emissions 2017 Do-Something

Difference 2017DM/2017 Do-Something

% Change (local area) 2017 Do-Something versus 2017 Do-Minimum

CO2 (Tonnes) AM

253.1

256.8

3.7

1.5%

CO2 (Tonnes) PM

268.4

283.1

14.7

5.5%

Table 15.41: Total vehicle Kilometres within the Paramics Network in 2017 

 

Vehicle Kilometres 2017 Do-Minimum

Vehicle Kilometres 2017 Do-Something

Difference 2017DM/2017 Do-Something

% Change (local area) 2017 Do-Something versus 2017 Do-Minimum

AM

932,669

995,484

62,815

6.7%

PM

1,129,048

1,191,004

61,956

5.5%

15.7.9 If the fuel efficiency of the network operation were to remain constant, the rate of CO2 per kilometre would also be expected to remain constant. Total vehicle kilometres is the measure of total distance travelled by all vehicles in the model network. If the Do-Something model were to operate with the same level of fuel efficiency as the Do-Minimum, then we would expect the proportionate change in emissions to be similar to the increase in vehicle kilometres.

15.7.10 When we compare the increases in CO2 in table 15.40 with the increases in vehicle kilometres in table 15.41, we can see that the percentage increase in CO2 in the PM peak is similar to the percentage increase in travel in the PM peak. However, in the AM peak the percentage increase in CO2 is significantly lower than the increase in travel distance and hence, less than might otherwise be expected. The test indicates that during the congested morning peak period, the forecast increase in CO2 emissions from the additional traffic and distance travelled is reduced by the improved scheme design and operation of ITS, which reduces congestion.

15.7.11 There is less congestion relief forecast in the evening peak and therefore a smaller reduction in the predicted increase in CO2 emissions during this period.

15.7.12 The proposed scheme is also likely to avoid the need for main cable replacement and other maintenance works that are envisaged as being necessary to retain the Forth Road Bridge in use in the absence of a replacement crossing. These works on the Forth Road Bridge, extending over an anticipated eight year period, would have a significant impact on traffic congestion and routing and hence emissions that the air quality assessment reported in this chapter does not take this impact into account. Please refer to Appendix A5.1 for more information on the impacts of these works.

15.8 References

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AEA Energy & Environment (2007). Air Quality Review and Assessment Progress Report for Fife Council – 2007/8.

AEA Technology (2009). Measurement of PM10 and PM2.5 in Scotland with Gravimetric Samplers, March 2009

City of Edinburgh Council (2000). Review and Assessment of Air Quality Stage 3.

City of Edinburgh Council (2003). Updating and Screening Assessment, Local Air Quality Management Phase 2.

City of Edinburgh Council (2006). Updating and Screening Assessment, Round 3 Local Air Quality Management.

City of Edinburgh Council (2008). Air Quality Progress Report, Round 3 of Local Air Quality Management.

City of Edinburgh Council (2008). Air Quality: Action Plan 2008 - 2010.

Defra (1997). The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, The Stationary Office, 1997, Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Defra (2007).The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, The Stationery Office, July 2007. Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Defra (2008). Climate change: valuing emissions. Updated guidance on the Shadow Price of Carbon. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Defra (2009). Local Air Quality Management. Technical Guidance LAQM.TG (09), February 2009. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Environment Act 1995, HMSO.

European Community (1996). Directive 96/62/EC - Ambient Air Quality Assessment and Management.

European Community (2008). Directive 2008/50/EC - Ambient Air Quality and Cleaner Air for Europe.

NAEI (2006). National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Data warehouse. Website accessed May 2009. (http://www.naei.org.uk/data_warehouse.php)

NAEI (2008). Air Quality Pollutant Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: 1990 – 2006. (http://www.naei.org.uk/reports.php)

NSCA (2006). Development Control: Planning for Air Quality. 2006 Update. Environmental Protection UK. National Society for Clean Air.

Scottish Executive (2000; 2002). Air Quality (Scotland) Regulations 2000 and Air Quality (Scotland) Amendment Regulations 2002.

Scottish Executive (2002). Scottish Planning Policy 2 (SPP2) – Economic Development.

Scottish Executive (2005). Planning Advice Note 75 (PAN 75) – Planning for Transport.

Scottish Executive (2005). Scottish Planning Policy 17 (SPP17) – Transport & Planning.

Scottish Executive (2006). Planning Advice Note 51 (PAN 51) – Planning, Environmental Protection and Regulation.

Scottish Statutory Instrument 2000 No. 323, Pollution Prevention and Control (Scotland) Regulations 2000.

SEPA (2009). Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory (SPRI). Website accessed March 2009. (www.sepa.org.uk/air/pollutant_release_inventory.aspx).

The Air Quality Standards (Scotland) Regulations 2007, HMSO.

The Scottish Government (2009). Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007. September 2009.

Transport Scotland (2008). Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance. The Scottish Government.

Transport Scotland (2008). STAG Technical Database, Section 7 - Environment. The Scottish Government.

Transport Scotland et al. (2007). Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB), Volume 11, Section 3, Part 1 Air Quality, HA207/07. Highways Agency, Scottish Executive, The National Assembly for Wales and The Department of Regional Development Northern Ireland.

West Lothian Council (2006). Updating and Screening Assessment 2006. Air Quality in West Lothian.

West Lothian Council (2007). Progress Report 2007. Air Quality in West Lothian.