Geographical adjustment

Methodology

The underlying principle in the adjustment methodology is that vehicles with company keepership are more likely than vehicles recorded with private keepership to be registered at a different address than that where the vehicle is kept creating a vehicle registration skew in official statistics.

It is assumed that vehicles with private keepership are reasonably normally distributed and that DVLA geographic data in licencing statistics held for private vehicle owners is a fair representation of real-world keepership. This premise is supported by the distribution of private keepership to relative population sizes, and correlation to areas of greater affordability of car ownership. As the sample size of cars with private keepership is both large and significant, by extrapolating the relative proportions of vehicles with private keepership by geographic distribution, a statistical representation of the total vehicle stock can be derived. This provides insight into which regions many cars registered under company keepership may actually be kept.

Geographic adjustment to the licenced vehicle database (VEH9901) published by DfT can be conducted by following a simple methodology:

• Segregate cars by private and company keepership totals by fuel type.
• Calculate the percentage of licenced private keepership vehicles from the totals for each Nation or region by quarter / year of first registration as a function of all private keepership vehicles for the respective quarter / year of first registration.
• Multiply by total sales for all keepership types for each fuel type for all Nation or region by quarter or year of first registration.
• Validate totals – these should equal the original for each fuel type for each quarter / year. The revised totals have now been geographically readjusted to reflect the distribution of vehicles of private keepership.
• Repeat for vans.

This method provides a means of statistical redistribution of vehicles. Whilst this is likely to be a better indicator of geographic allocation of vehicles than the current mix of private and company keepership data, any extrapolation will a function of the accuracy of the private keepership data.

For vans, the percentage of private keepership data is lower than for cars, and so the confidence with any extrapolation should be considered lower than that of the car sector adjustment. It should be noted that this methodology may be less accurate for adjustment with Northern Ireland data given vehicles may also be leased or registered from locations in Ireland.

Scotland results

Table 3 – Total plug-in cars and vans in Scotland pre and post adjustment:

Fuel type	Total cars*	Total cars adjusted	% change cars	Total vans*	Total vans adjusted	% change vans
BEVs	102,582	150,082	+46%	4,938	9,455	+91%
PHEVs	55,710	69,555	+25%	713	999	+40%
Total Plug-in	158,292	219,637	+39%	5,651	10,454	+85%

(*based on DfT VEH9901 licenced road using vehicle statistics as of end Dec 2025)

The increase in total BEVs in the geographically adjusted statistics is significant, with 46% additional BEV cars in Scotland than recorded through traditional methods. There are 25% more PHEV cars. The overall change represents over 66,000 additional plug-in cars and vans in total, 40% more than in reported statistics.

Nation comparison

Graph 4 – Total BEVs per '000 in population by Nation:

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Table 4 –Summary of total cars and vans by Nation:

Nation	Population	Total BEV cars	Total BEV cars adjusted	Total BEV vans	Total BEV vans adjusted
Scotland	5,546,900	102,582	150,082	4,938	9,455
England	58,620,101	1,530,599	1,462,317	102,456	93,135
Wales	3,186,581	42,419	66,198	3,060	6,807
Northern Ireland	1,927,855	26,200	23,203	1,199	2,252

(DfT VEH9901 (end Dec 2025) and ONS statistics Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland - Office for National Statistics)

Normalising vehicle prevalence by population size provides an insightful means of comparison of BEV uptake across the four Nations. Once adjusted for geographic skew, the figures show a much more consistent levels of BEV uptake in Scotland, England and Wales than the non-adjusted figures for both cars and vans.

Scotland and Wales in particular show a significant increase in BEVs per ‘000 people in the population using the adjusted method. The effect is less evident with Northern Ireland data, potentially due to a secondary statistical geographic skew taking place as a result of vehicle exchange and registration practices with Ireland.

BEV keepership registrations in published statistics suggest that England records by far the highest uptake per head of population, and Scotland / Wales far lower.

This is principally due however to the propensity for major leasing providers and company HQs to be based in England, resulting in a significantly different geographic allocation of keepership by company and private keepership data.

Following geographic adjustment however, the total number of electric cars first registered to Scotland in 2025 is revealed to be the highest per head of population of the four Nations at the end of 2025.

Whilst the reduction in total BEVs per head of population is not significant in England, the increase in BEVs per head of population is far more pronounced in Scotland and Wales.

Electric vans show a significant increase in total licenced vehicles per ‘000 in population in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland following the adjustment.

The geographic adjustment provides greater consistency of BEV uptake across regions than by traditional reporting methods.

The South East, South West and North West of England regions show the highest uptake of BEV cars relative to population size prior to adjustment.

South East, East and Scotland show the highest uptake of BEV cars after adjustment. Wales, the North East, and East Midlands also show significant increases in BEV car totals after adjustment.

A similar picture is presented for vans, with Wales, Scotland, Yorkshire, East of England and Northern Ireland broadly doubling the number of BEV vans in the geographic redistributed data.

There are significant reductions in East Midlands, West Midlands, and the South East.

As noted in the above, the confidence in the accuracy of statistical redistribution for vans is lower due to lower proportions of privately owned vehicles. Vans can also to a greater extent be allocated at depots, so the distribution of larger fleet operators will be a modifying factor that has not been considered within this adjustment.

Regional distribution within Scotland

Official statistics of BEV cars report elevated levels of sales in Renfrewshire and Stirling, reflecting the locations of popular vehicle franchises in these regions.

An adjustment at regional level, again based on the distribution pattern of privately owned vehicles, reveals an uplift in BEV cars in the remaining regions in Scotland.

The data has been further normalised per 1,000 people in the population to account for variation in population size.

The Scottish regions with highest relative EV uptake in 2025 to population size were East Dunbartonshire and West Lothian. The island regions of Shetlands Isles and Na h-Eileanan Siar were lowest for EV uptake in 2025, potentially related to historic challenges with electric grid infrastructure. Glasgow recorded a low level of EV uptake in 2025 relative to population size although also had one of the lowest levels of non-EVs uptake in 2025 relative to population.

Total vehicles

The redistribution effect is most pronounced with BEV and PHEV cars; however, this is also evident with other fuel types, meaning that petrol / diesel car totals can also be under-reported in the licencing data.

Table 5 –Total vehicles pre and post adjustment by Nation and region:

Nation / Region	Total DfT data	Total – adjusted	% of original
Scotland	2,619,212	2,768,919	105.72%
North East	1,231,302	1,297,042	105.34%
East Midlands	2,560,870	2,662,517	103.97%
West Midlands	2,991,096	3,094,612	103.46%
Wales	1,658,580	1,709,997	103.10%
East	3,553,322	3,607,296	101.52%
London	2,630,663	2,658,203	101.05%
Yorkshire and The Humber	2,714,473	2,741,102	100.98%
North West	3,719,855	3,669,095	98.64%
South West	3,308,327	3,251,354	98.28%
Northern Ireland	1,057,895	1,036,309	97.96%
South East	5,739,579	5,288,730	92.14%

For Scotland, this represents 5.72% more total cars of all fuel types than previously reported, an additional 149,707 cars. The uplift in percentage terms is the highest of all Nations / regions in the UK, and as a consequence the increased accuracy from using geographically adjustment to revise national statistics could be of significant relevance for other means of assessing economic and transport related activity.

Table 6 – Total cars and vans pre and post adjustment by fuel type:

DfT VEH9901 data Scotland	BATTERY ELECTRIC	DIESEL	HYBRID ELECTRIC	OTHER FUELS	PETROL	PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC	TOTAL
Cars	102,582	742,170	232,410	2,156	1,484,184	55,710	2,619,212
Adjusted cars	150,082	751,199	257,923	2,202	1,537,959	69,555	2,768,919
Difference	47,500	9,029	25,513	46	53,775	13,845	149,707
Vans	4,938	353,910	1,043	162	9,017	713	369,783
Adjusted vans	9,455	403,408	1,281	168	9,483	999	424,793
Difference	4,517	49,498	238	6	466	286	55,010

By fuel type, over 53,000 of the additional cars in the adjusted statistics are petrol; 25,000 hybrid; and 9,000 diesel cars.

With vans, there is an even greater uplift in percentage terms, with 14.9% more vans, indicating over 55,000 additional diesel vans in Scotland. As previously noted, the confidence in the use of this technique is lower with van data than with car data.

Plug-in vehicle prevalence in Scotland

Published DfT statistics have been released for up to end December 2025. SMMT have released data showing new car registrations for each month up to December 2025. Although the exact proportion of these in Scotland is currently unknown, a proportion of new BEV and PHEVs will be vehicles for use in Scotland.

From the geographically adjusted data in 2025, 8.8% of newly licenced BEVs cars in the UK and 8.0% of newly licensed BEV vans in the UK are likely to have been registered in Scotland.

Table 7 – Total BEV and PHEV vehicles in Scotland:

Body Type	BEV geographical adjustment Dec 2025	PHEV geographical adjustment Dec 2025	All plug-in vehicles geographical adjustment Dec 2025
Buses and coaches*	989	0	989
Cars**	150,082	69,555	219,637
HGVs*	46	0	46
Light goods vehicles**	9,455	999	10,454
Motorcycles*	630	0	630
Other vehicles*	35	659	694
Total	161,237	71,213	232,450

(*VEH1103, **VEH9901 adjusted)

Traditional means of interpreting BEV uptake suggest total prevalence in the Scottish car fleet (as of Dec 2025) at 3.9%. Correcting for geographic skew increases this to 5.4%, or 1 in 18.5 cars. For all Plug-in cars, this represents 7.9%, or 1 in 12.6 cars.

Table 8 – Percentage of BEV and PHEV cars and vans post adjustment:

Body Type	BEV geographical adjustment Dec 2025	PHEV geographical adjustment Dec 2025	All plug-in vehicles geographical adjustment Dec 2025
Cars	5.42%	2.51%	7.93%
Vans	2.22%	0.24%	2.46%

Average annual km

Due to the greater geographical area of Scotland, it has been historically reported that vehicles travel further on average in Scotland than the GB average.

In 2024, cars in Scotland travelled on average 13,787 km, and vans 26,080 km based on data published by Transport Scotland. These distances are significantly greater than the GB 2024 averages of 12,586 km for cars and 20,264 km for vans.

Chapter 5 - Road Traffic | Transport Scotland

Road traffic estimates in Great Britain, 2025: Traffic in Great Britain by vehicle type - GOV.UK

The additional total vehicles identified in this report (see section 3.4) could in part account for the large disparity in the average annual mileage of vehicles in Scotland vs GB datasets average. Using the geographically adjusted total figures brings the average annual car km closer to the GB average with 13,042 km for cars and 22,703 km for vans.

The average additional annual mileage for cars and vans in Scotland would reduce to 3.6% and 12.0% for cars and vans respectively by using the geographically adjusted vehicle totals for each sector. Whilst still above the GB annual average, the reduced discrepancy supports the hypothesis that there are a greater number of road using vehicles in Scotland than currently recognised in DVLA statistics.

Average age of vehicles

(Scottish Transport Statistics 2025, published March 2026)

Scottish Transport Statistics 2025 | Transport Scotland

The average age of cars and vans has been increasing in Scotland steadily over the past 15 years.

Mean age cars in Scotland at end of 2025 is 8.2 years, and the median age of cars in Scotland at end of 2025 is 7 years. (DfT statistics, VEH9901).

The growth in the total number of licenced road using cars (2.23 million in 2008 vs 2.61 million in 2025) has occurred despite reductions in annual car sales over the past 10 years and could be attributed primarily to an increase in the useful economically viable lifespan of cars and vans. Although the median age is 7 years, this does not mean that all vehicles are scrapped at 14 years old.

From UK wide data, the age where the number of licenced cars drops below 50% of the that originally first registered in a given year is 16.6 years. For vans this is 14.6 years. (DfT statistics, VEH0124).

As car sales volumes have fluctuated significantly in the last 15 years, this has had the effect of skewing statistics on average age of vehicles.

Graph 12 – Car average age across the UK:

Average age at end Q4 2025 (years)	East	East Midlands	London	North East	North West	Northern Ireland	Scotland	South East	South West	Wales	West Midlands	Yorkshire and Humber	Grand Total
Mean age	10.31	10.42	9.97	9.22	9.19	9.83	8.17	9.62	10.8	10.19	10.29	9.59	9.81
Median age	8.94	9.26	8.33	8.35	8.13	9.09	7.05	8.2	9.53	9.16	9.09	8.65	8.6

Scotland in DfT statistics has the lowest average car age of all Nations in the UK, both in terms of median and mean ages. This is despite the significant increase in average age over the past 15 years and the more recent trend for newer vehicles to be under-reported in total licencing statistics through geographic skew.

The relatively low average vehicle age could also be a result of harsher weather conditions causing increased corrosion and limiting vehicle lifespan in Scotland.

SORN

Prior to 2014 the total SORN cars in Scotland was steady at ~100,000 vehicles per year, then the following changes occurred:

• DVLA introduced continuous SORN in Q4 2013 for administrative savings, meaning annual registrations became no longer necessary.
• Continuous insurance enforcement made it an offence to keep a vehicle uninsured unless SORN declared. SORN became the only legal alternative.
• Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) changes proposed increasing costs for older cars. SORN became a means for some vehicles owners to avoid paying increased VED.
• 2014 removal of the requirement to display tax disc. Detecting an untaxed vehicle without SORN became reliant on ANPR detection systems, yet low cost false or modified number plates could readily overcome these.
• Introduction of the London ULEZ, Clean Air Zones in England and Low Emissions Zones in Scotland - ANPR regulated emissions zones that charged or fined non-compliant older vehicles for entry.
• Growth in multi-car households, classic cars, seasonal use cars, restoration projects using SORN to reduce tax and insurance liabilities.

By the end of 2025, there were more than double the number of SORN cars, and more than triple the SORN Vans / HGVs than was the case in 2014.

Why does this matter if these are merely older vehicles kept off-road?

SORN declaration, when combined with number plates that cause ANPR cameras to misread, could potentially provide the owner with tax free, insurance free, ANPR enforcement-free motoring unless apprehended by another form of enforcement. This could result in more cars and vans in use on the roads than we currently recognise through official stats, a shadow fleet responsible for greater emissions. 

Among the oldest vehicles, those with indefinite SORN are also not incentivised to be taken to the scrapyard meaning non-runners can be left to rust. Such vehicles are not being recycled, and materials not recovered. 

In 2013, the ratio of SORN cars to licenced cars was 1:25. By 2025 this had reduced to 1:9. This is a very significant shift which may have fallen beneath the policy radar. 

The total number of licenced cars in Scotland has increased by over 263,000 (11.1%) since 2014. The unlicenced car total increased by 179,800 since 2014 (116,400 vs 296,200 SORN declared), a remarkable 154.4% increase.

If the rise in SORN declarations is primarily driven by unlicenced, yet road using cars, then the total road using cars – including the effect of geographic skew in licenced car totals – could be up to 589,800 additional cars (an increase of 25%).

The total number of licenced vans in Scotland has increased by 116,300 (over 45%) since 2014. The unlicenced van total has also increased by 55,600 since 2014 (26,700 vs 82,300 SORN declared), a 208% increase.

If again the rise in SORN declarations is primarily driven by unlicenced, yet road-using vans, then the total road using vans – including the effect of geographic skew in licenced vans – could be up to 226,900 additional vans (an increase of 89%).

This is not unique to Scotland. UK SORN total for all vehicle types has increased from 2.5 million in 2014 to over 7 million in 2025. 4 million of these are SORN cars, and 1.2 million SORN vans. The relative growth in the totals of SORN vehicles since 2013 is even greater for commercial vehicles (Vans, HGVs) than for cars.

A national scrappage scheme could help to address these issues, increasing number of ZEV cars and vans, whilst reducing the rate of aging of the vehicle fleet to improve fleet turnover (reducing non-ZEVs) and improve material recovery (circular economy). 

EV infrastructure

There are likely to be substantially more BEVs in Scotland than recognised in official statistical publications due to geographic skew. As these datasets also have a lag time for reporting data, the combination of these effects results in a significant under-reporting of BEV uptake.

Up to end December 2025, official DfT data suggests BEV cars make up 3.9% of total cars in Scotland. Recalibrating this for geographic skew that up to end Dec 2025 this is over 5.4%, or over 161,000 BEV cars.

This has implications for increased demand for publicly available EV charging infrastructure than some charge point networks may be currently forecasting.

Better insight into geographic skews in published EV statistics could help inform commercial investment decisions on EV infrastructure, leading to accelerated infrastructure provision and better utilisation of rapid and ultra rapid charging points in Scotland that are installed in the right places.

The geographic skew methodology could be extended to regional levels within Scotland to provide a more granular view of hot spots of EV uptake. Coupled with origin-and-destination studies this could help to identify future demand for EV charging.

CO2e emissions

An increased total number of road using vehicles in Scotland, both through geographic skew allocation and increases in unlicenced vehicles could represent greater total CO2e emissions than previously understood. The number of cars and vans that would need to transition to zero emission technology would also be greater than previously recognised by around 200k.

The effect on total CO2e emissions is a function of the methodology used to calculate this though. Using a ‘top down’ approach of fleet numbers x average annual km x average CO2e emissions per km by fuel type, will not necessarily yield a difference in total CO2e emissions where the average annual distance travelled per vehicle is reduced by the relative increase in total vehicles or CO2 conversion factors.

As noted in the above, the reported average car and van annual mileages for Scotland is considered to be signficantly higher than the UK average, and this itself could be in part due to the DVLA statistics under-recording the total vehicle numbers in Scotland.