8. Progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2020 (Tables 5-9)

Key Reported Road Casualties Scotland 2016

8. Progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2020 (Tables 5-9)

8.1 The following section provides information on the progress made towards each of the casualty reduction targets set out in Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020 (see section 11.5 for more information about the Framework).

8.2 Progress is assessed towards a milestone in 2015 and the final target by means of an indicative trend based on a constant annual percentage reduction (see section 11.6 for more information). Detailed tables for each of the targets, including a breakdown by mode and historic data are included in Tables 5 to 9.

Target: 40% reduction in those killed by 2020

8.3 There were 191 people killed in 2016, a 35% reduction since the 2004-08 baseline average. The decrease seen to 2016 is less than that required to achieve the 2020 milestone reduction (40%). Figure 4 shows that the total number of fatalities in 2016 was below the indicative line required to achieve the target [Table 5].

Figure 4: Progress to casualty reduction target: Casualties killed

Figure 4: Progress to casualty reduction target: Casualties killed

Target: 55% reduction in those seriously injured by 2020

8.4 There were 1,693 serious injuries in 2016, a 35% reduction since the 2004-08 baseline level. The decrease seen to 2016 has not yet reached the framework target for 2020 (a reduction of 55% from 2004-08) [Table 6].

Figure 5: Progress to casualty reduction target: Seriously injured casualties

Figure 5: Progress to casualty reduction target: Seriously injured casualties

Target: 50% reduction in children killed by 2020

8.5 Due to small numbers and year-to-year fluctuations this target is measured using a three year average. An average of 8 children a year were killed in the 2014-2016 period, a 50% reduction since the 2004-2008 baseline. The current reduction seen to 2016 is the same as that required by the 2020 target [Table 7].

Figure 6: Progress to casualty reduction target: Children killed

Figure 6: Progress to casualty reduction target: Children killed

Target: 65% reduction in children seriously injured by 2020

8.6 167 children recorded as seriously injured in 2016, a 49% reduction since the 2004-08 baseline. The decrease to 2016 is less than that required to achieve the 2020 milestone reduction (65%) [Table 8].

Figure 7: Progress to casualty reduction target: Children seriously injured

Figure 7: Progress to casualty reduction target: Children seriously injured

Target: 10% reduction in slight casualties by 2020 (per 100 million vehicle kilometres)

8.7 Table 9 shows that the 2016 slight casualty rate was 19.37 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres. This was a 40% reduction since the 2004-08 baseline and is therefore greater than the reduction required to achieve the 2020 target [Table 9].

Table 5: People killed by mode of transport, 1994 – 2016
  Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus / coach Goods1 Other2 All road users
1994-98 ave 104 11 31 209 3 15 5 378
1994 111 5 24 197 9 14 3 363
1995 121 11 33 221 1 19 3 409
1996 106 15 29 185 3 14 5 357
1997 87 9 37 219 2 16 7 377
1998 96 13 33 223 1 13 6 385
1999 89 8 30 169 1 11 2 310
2000 72 12 40 182 1 15 4 326
2001 76 10 49 194 0 14 5 348
2002 73 8 46 154 0 21 2 304
2003 63 14 50 189 1 14 5 336
2004 76 7 42 167 3 12 1 308
2005 66 16 34 153 0 15 2 286
2006 61 10 58 175 0 8 2 314
2007 60 4 40 160 0 15 2 281
2008 60 9 34 153 1 8 5 270
2009 47 5 43 116 0 5 0 216
2010 47 7 35 105 1 8 5 208
2011 43 7 33 89 1 9 3 185
2012 59 9 21 73 1 13 0 176
2013 38 13 23 89 2 5 2 172
2014 59 8 30 94 1 2 9 203
2015 44 5 27 75 1 13 3 168
2016 prov. 32 8 30 106 3 6 6 191
2004-08 average 65 9 42 162 1 12 2 292
2012-16 average 46 9 26 87 2 8 4 182
Numbers in 2016 44 6 28 110 1 8 2 198
implied by target
2016 % change: * * * 41% * * * 14%
on 2015
on 04-08 ave -50% * * -34% * * * -35%

* A percentage change is not shown if the denominator is 50 or fewer.
1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.

Table 6: People seriously injured by mode of transport, 1994 – 2016
  Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus / coach Goods1 Other2 All road users
1994-98 ave 1,272 238 324 2,292 93 156 84 4,460
1994 1,536 311 329 2,607 141 197 87 5,208
1995 1,466 281 362 2,432 104 192 93 4,930
1996 1,173 201 271 2,108 93 123 72 4,041
1997 1,124 201 321 2,146 53 120 82 4,047
1998 1,060 197 338 2,167 75 150 85 4,072
1999 1,054 181 401 1,835 82 133 79 3,765
2000 925 164 435 1,796 79 106 63 3,568
2001 842 161 405 1,758 62 115 67 3,410
2002 820 144 410 1,628 59 120 48 3,229
2003 712 125 367 1,511 69 114 59 2,957
2004 674 121 353 1,414 63 83 58 2,766
2005 677 116 371 1,304 63 83 52 2,666
2006 688 131 352 1,258 57 91 58 2,635
2007 594 147 381 1,110 33 87 33 2,385
2008 645 155 396 1,203 59 65 52 2,575
2009 509 152 332 1,135 36 73 50 2,287
2010 457 138 319 903 52 60 40 1,969
2011 515 156 293 758 51 63 44 1,880
2012 461 169 343 847 44 68 49 1,981
2013 403 149 281 720 34 45 39 1,671
2014 422 159 326 686 28 51 31 1,703
2015 424 164 257 639 49 46 21 1,600
2016 prov. 397 147 268 758 42 55 26 1,693
2004-08 average 656 134 371 1,258 55 82 51 2,605
2012-16 average 421 158 295 730 39 53 33 1,730
Numbers in 2016 374 76 211 717 31 47 29 1,485
implied by target
2015 % change: -6% -10% 4% 19% * * * 6%
on 2015
on 04-08 ave -39% 10% -28% -40% -24% -33% -49% -35%

* A percentage change is not shown if the denominator is 50 or fewer.
1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.

Table 7: Children killed by mode of transport, 1994 – 2016
  Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus / coach Goods1 Other2 All road users 3 year average3
1994-98 ave 17 3 0 8 1 0 0 30  
1994 18 4 1 10 4 - - 37  
1995 16 3 - 11 - - - 30 31
1996 16 6 1 3 1 - - 27 28
1997 15 1 - 9 - 1 - 26 28
1998 18 3 - 9 1 - 1 32 28
1999 17 1 - 6 - - 1 25 26
2000 13 4 - 4 - - - 21 22
2001 14 4 - 2 - - - 20 18
2002 12 - - 2 - - - 14 17
2003 5 2 - 10 - - - 17 14
2004 8 - 1 3 - - - 12 13
2005 5 4 - 1 - - 1 11 16
2006 9 5 - 10 - 1 - 25 15
2007 4 1 - 4 - - - 9 18
2008 4 2 1 13 - - - 20 11
2009 1 1 - 3 - - - 5 10
2010 1 1 1 1 - - - 4 5
2011 2 - - 5 - - - 7 4
2012 1 1 - - - - - 2 6
2013 5 2 - 2 - - - 9 6
2014 3 - - 4 - - - 7 7
2015 3 1 - - - - - 4 8
2016 prov. 3 1 1 7 - - - 12  
2004-08 average 6 2 0 6 - 0 0 15  
2012-16 average 3 1 0 3 - - - 7  
2014-16 average 8
2014-16 avg % change
on 04-08 ave -50%

1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.
3. All averages rounded to whole percentages.

Table 8: Children seriously injured by mode of transport, 1994 - 2016
  Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus / coach Goods1 Other2 All road users
1994-98 ave 546 96 5 136 10 8 10 812
1994 656 140 5 151 20 12 8 992
1995 622 110 7 142 9 13 17 920
1996 524 94 3 115 14 3 10 763
1997 490 77 4 129 3 6 10 719
1998 437 61 8 144 5 6 5 666
1999 413 68 5 102 2 2 8 600
2000 365 61 7 90 7 5 5 540
2001 339 52 7 108 5 6 7 524
2002 328 46 7 109 9 7 7 513
2003 268 46 5 83 5 2 6 415
2004 239 40 9 74 3 3 4 372
2005 239 26 11 67 6 2 5 356
2006 239 35 10 60 4 0 2 350
2007 181 28 4 51 1 1 3 269
2008 194 18 5 56 2 1 3 279
2009 155 26 2 62 2 1 5 253
2010 150 23 3 40 7 0 0 223
2011 139 23 2 34 4 0 1 203
2012 132 21 1 34 1 5 0 194
2013 92 11 1 34 3 0 2 143
2014 116 18 4 27 2 1 3 171
2015 97 11 1 27 2 0 1 139
2016 prov. 105 8 4 46 2 2 0 167
2004-08 average 218 29 8 62 3 1 3 325
2012-16 average 108 14 2 34 2 2 1 163
Numbers in 2016 109 15 4 31 2 1 2 163
implied by target
2016 % change: 8% * * * * * * 20%
on 2015
on 04-08 ave -52% * * -25% * * * -49%

* A percentage change is not shown if the denominator is 50 or fewer.
1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.

Table 9: Slight casualties by mode of transport, 1994 - 2016
  Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus / coach Goods1 Other2 All road users Traffic Slight casualty rate
numbers mill veh-km per 100 mill veh-km
1994-98 ave 3,009 1,034 580 10,859 912 583 501 17,478 37,653 46.42
1994 3,083 1,068 577 10,123 1,084 669 398 17,002 36,000 47.23
1995 3,048 1,031 576 10,321 802 579 498 16,855 36,737 45.88
1996 3,047 1,081 550 10,740 902 499 499 17,318 37,777 45.84
1997 2,944 1,062 590 11,669 886 525 529 18,205 38,581 47.19
1998 2,921 930 605 11,444 887 643 580 18,010 39,168 45.98
1999 2,620 828 594 10,901 841 609 534 16,927 39,770 42.56
2000 2,607 708 655 10,675 854 542 582 16,623 39,561 42.02
2001 2,487 745 724 10,342 761 595 499 16,153 40,065 40.32
2002 2,423 676 711 10,050 801 621 460 15,742 41,535 37.90
2003 2,215 663 697 10,055 822 537 474 15,463 42,038 36.78
2004 2,328 648 599 10,024 849 561 419 15,428 42,705 36.13
2005 2,308 649 677 9,532 794 495 478 14,933 42,718 34.96
2006 2,104 640 658 9,272 706 484 456 14,320 44,119 32.46
2007 2,050 563 640 8,793 590 506 431 13,573 44,666 30.39
2008 1,888 566 612 8,314 527 467 373 12,747 44,470 28.66
2009 1,643 647 646 8,328 437 423 416 12,540 44,219 28.36
2010 1,509 636 491 7,293 487 386 359 11,161 43,488 25.66
2011 1,506 661 482 6,930 453 384 305 10,721 43,390 24.71
2012 1,459 727 503 6,745 396 411 314 10,555 43,549 24.24
2013 1,304 725 471 6,151 358 390 260 9,659 43,840 22.03
2014 1,270 727 471 6,007 262 400 265 9,402 44,839 20.97
2015 1,227 628 450 5,999 282 411 209 9,206 45,374 20.29
2016 prov. 1,234 634 413 5,819 256 411 230 8,997 46,437 19.37
2004-08 average 2,136 613 637 9,187 693 503 431 14,200 43,736 32.52
2012-16 average 1,299 688 462 6,144 311 405 256 9,564 44,808 21.38
Rate in 2016 30.56
implied by target
2016 % change: 1% 1% -8% -3% -9% 0% 10% -2% 2% *
on 2015
on 04-08 ave -42% 3% -35% -37% -63% -18% -47% -37% 6% -40%

1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport.