Larkhall – Milngavie Railway Project Evaluation Study Final Report
6. assessment against STAG CRITERIA
6.1. This chapter assesses whether the Larkhall – Milngavie railway project satisfies the five STAG criteria:
- Environment;
- Safety;
- Economy;
- Integration; and
- Accessibility and Social Inclusion.
6.2. The 'Economy' criterion has already been assessed through the project- specific objective 'to increase the attractiveness of Larkhall and Kelvindale and the surrounding areas for inward investment and land development' ( chapter 5). It is also assessed further through the extent to which the project has impacted the wider economy ( chapter 7) and created WEBs ( chapter 8) as well as the recalculation of the BCR ( chapter 10). No further analysis was therefore undertaken.
6.3. Similarly, the 'Accessibility and Social Inclusion' criterion has already been assessed through the project specific objective 'to offer social inclusion benefits for residents' ( chapter 5) so no further analysis was undertaken.
6.4. The remaining three criteria are discussed below.
6.5. As discussed in chapter 5, there is evidence from the User Survey of a modal shift from car to rail, as well as a minor net decrease in car ownership resulting from the Larkhall – Milngavie rail improvements. This is likely to have led to a decrease in the number of car trips and therefore a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
6.6. Based on the National Transport Model's assumption that each additional rail passenger kilometre travelled results in a 0.26km reduction in car vehicle kilometres (as trips previously made by car switch to rail)[15], this will have resulted in a decrease in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from road traffic of approximately 750 tonnes per annum[16]. Additionally, there will have been an unquantified reduction in the emission of the main traffic-related air quality pollutants (NOX and small particulate matter).
6.7. However, this will have been offset by the emissions related to the increase in rail kilometres operated due to the service frequency improvements and the new stations served.
6.8. The increase in rail kilometres operated is estimated to be approximately 360,000 km per annum[17] which will have generated nearly 1,000 tonnes of additional CO2 per annum[18].
6.9. There has therefore been a small net increase in carbon dioxide emissions (approximately 250 tonnes CO2 per annum). This is because the increase in emissions from the extra rail services is not sufficiently compensated by the reduction in car emissions, even though rail is more efficient than car in terms of CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre travelled. This estimation excludes the impact of any changes to bus services resulting from the rail scheme.
6.10. There is also likely to have been a slight increase in rail-related noise for those living next to the reopened railway line. This will not have been offset by a significant reduction in road traffic noise, since the change in total car traffic will have been too small to create a perceptible reduction in traffic-related noise.
6.11. The negative impacts on the landscape and existing habitats as a result of constructing the new line and stations would have been minimal, since the line follows an existing, abandoned route.
Overall, there is likely to have been a small net negative environmental impact due to the Larkhall – Milngavie railway project, due to a minor net increase in carbon emissions and additional rail-related noise close to the reopened sections of track. These will have been partially offset by a slight reduction in the emission of the main traffic-related air quality pollutants in the relevant road corridors.
6.12. The mode switch from car to rail as a result of the Larkhall – Milngavie project may have led to a reduction in traffic on local roads within the area. This may have led to a reduction in road-related accidents. However, fewer cars on the road may have led to increased road speeds which could in turn have meant more severe and/or an increased frequency of accidents.
6.13. To assess whether there has been a net reduction in accidents as a result of the rail project, Transport Scotland road accident statistics were assessed before (2000 to 2004) and after (2005 to 2009 and 2010 to 2013) project completion for roads that run close to the Larkhall – Milngavie railway line[19] and therefore those that are most likely to have experienced a reduction in traffic volumes as a result of rail abstraction.
6.14. The statistics show that there was a 14% reduction in the total number of accidents on roads close to the Larkhall – Milngavie railway line between 2000/04 and 2005/09, and a 35% reduction between 2000/04 and 2010/13. However, similar rates of accident reduction were also observed on roads in the Glasgow City Council area (17% and 41% respectively) and the differences between the two were not found to be statistically significant[1]. The decrease in accidents seen for the roads examined therefore cannot be attributed directly to the Larkhall – Milngavie project. Instead, there are likely to be other factors involved such as improved road engineering, speed reduction measures, weather and random variation. However, it should be noted that although the figures presented are 4 or 5-year averages, as they are relatively small numbers there will still be a degree of variation which can be subject to relatively large fluctuations between periods just by chance.
Whilst there has been a reduction in casualties on the roads parallel to the Larkhall – Milngavie railway line since project completion, a similar reduction has also been observed at a regional level. The reduction cannot be conclusively attributed to the project itself and instead is more likely to be due to other factors.
Transport Integration
6.15. The re-opening of the Larkhall line has reconnected Larkhall to the suburban rail network allowing direct services to central Glasgow without the need for interchange.
6.16. ( Table 8). To determine whether any reduction was directly attributable to the rail project or just a general downward trend in road casualties, the statistics were compared to a control group, namely the full Glasgow City Council area.
#5-year average; *4-year average
6.17. The statistics show that there was a 14% reduction in the total number of accidents on roads close to the Larkhall – Milngavie railway line between 2000/04 and 2005/09, and a 35% reduction between 2000/04 and 2010/13. However, similar rates of accident reduction were also observed on roads in the Glasgow City Council area (17% and 41% respectively) and the differences between the two were not found to be statistically significant[20]. The decrease in accidents seen for the roads examined therefore cannot be attributed directly to the Larkhall – Milngavie project. Instead, there are likely to be other factors involved such as improved road engineering, speed reduction measures, weather and random variation. However, it should be noted that although the figures presented are 4 or 5-year averages, as they are relatively small numbers there will still be a degree of variation which can be subject to relatively large fluctuations between periods just by chance.
Whilst there has been a reduction in casualties on the roads parallel to the Larkhall – Milngavie railway line since project completion, a similar reduction has also been observed at a regional level. The reduction cannot be conclusively attributed to the project itself and instead is more likely to be due to other factors.
Integration
Transport Integration
6.18. The re-opening of the Larkhall line has reconnected Larkhall to the suburban rail network allowing direct services to central Glasgow without the need for interchange.
Land-Use Integration
6.19. There is so far little evidence that the Larkhall – Milngavie project has resulted in significant land-use changes. This is discussed in more detail in chapter 8.
Policy Integration
6.20. The Larkhall – Milngavie project is consistent with wider Scottish policy, in particular that of social inclusion as discussed in chapter 5.
On the basis of transport and policy integration, the Larkhall – Milngavie railway project is consistent with the Integration criterion.
6.21. The evidence available suggests that Larkhall – Milngavie project has made a positive contribution to the Integration criterion and, as discussed in chapter 5, the Economy and Accessibility and Social Inclusion criteria. The evidence is inconclusive as to whether there has been an impact on the Safety and the Environment criteria.