Larkhall – Milngavie Railway Project Evaluation Study Final Report


1 Larkhall to Milngavie PPP Project Outline Business Case 1998/99 – SPT, October 1998

2 Larkhall to Milngavie PPP Project: Reappraisal of Investment Case 1999/00 – SPT, July 2000

3 Wider Impacts of the Larkhall – Milngavie Project – David Simmonds Consultancy, October 2000

4 Modelling Report: Larkhall/Milngavie Rail Project – SPT, November 2000

5 2001 Census

6 Strathclyde Partnership for Transport: Larkhall Milngavie Railway Project: Lessons Learned Report – The Nichols Group, November 2008

7 Station Usage and Demand Forecasts for Newly Opened Railway Lines and Stations – DfT/ Transport Scotland, September 2011

8 Larkhall Milngavie Railway Project – Lesson Learned Report, 24 November 2008

9 National Rail Travel Survey – Overview Report, December 2010

10 The median was used rather than mean to avoid distortion by outlying values

11 Postcodes beginning ML3 and ML9

12 Time penalties based on Non-London Urban PDFH v5.1 frequency penalties

13 Analysis of bus services in Kelvindale suggests that the bus offers a more direct service into Glasgow than rail which is via Maryhill which may explain the high bus abstraction.

14 'SMART' objectives are discussed in section 11.4

15 Change in car km calculated as per Table 53

16 Based on 129g CO2 equivalent emissions per passenger km for the average petrol car in 2013 (Carbon Account for Transport No. 5: 2013/14 Edition, Transport Scotland)

17 Based on analysis of the 2004 and current Larkhall – Milngavie timetables

18 Based on an average electricity consumption of 8.0kWh per unit km for Class 318 (3-car) and Class 320 (3-car) trains and 0.3406kg CO2 emissions per kWh for an electric train in 2013 (STAG Technical Database, Section 7)

19 Selected roads: M74 (J1 to J8); B7078 Larkhall – M74 (J8); A72 Larkhall – Hamilton; A724 Hamilton – Rutherglen; A81 Milngavie – Glasgow; A82 Anniesland – Glasgow; A739 Bearsden – Glasgow.

1 At the 95% confidence level

20 At the 95% confidence level

21 Community Growth Areas are places that can accommodate large-scale, urban growth as identified in the Glasgow and Clyde Valley Structure Plan

22 Imperfect competition occurs when a firm has at least some control over the price of their outputs i.e. they exercise market power.

23 - these are estimates of the total numbers of people entering, exiting and changing at each station in Great Britain based on ticket sales data recorded in rail industry systems

24 Since 2013/14, the ORR have used a more sophisticated methodology to determine demand at SPT stations ( This has had the impact of reducing demand at some stations from 2013/14 onwards. The previous method which had been used since 2008/09 did not use the zone card survey data for example. It is therefore acknowledged that the pre-2013/14 demand figures presented in this report are potentially overstated.

25 Derived from the SPT Modelling Report which reports a total annual SPT rail demand in 2001 the 'do-something' scenario of 57,064,229 boardings and a 24hr rail demand of 201,698 boardings

26 Pollokshields East, Pollokshields West, Maxwell Park, Shawlands, Pollokshaws East, Langside, Cathcart, Mount Florida, Crosshill and Queens Park

27 the large decrease in demand at Dalmarnock in 2012/13 is in response to disruption due to station refurbishment works

28 Scottish Transport Statistics No 32 2013 Edition

29 In the weighted average, stations with higher demand contribute more to the average than stations with lower demand

30 Assessing the Potential Performance of New Local Railway Stations, University of Southampton – 2009

31 this was an older version of the Central Scotland Transport Model (CSTM12) in current use

32 in this context elasticity refers to how responsive rail demand is to change in exogenous drivers such as employment and population e.g. an employment elasticity of 1.3 means that if employment increases by 1%, rail demand will increase by 1.3%

33 PDFH employment elasticity for Non-London to/from core cities (Glasgow is defined as core city)

34 PDFH GDP per capita elasticity for Non-London to/from core cities

35 PDFH population elasticity for Non-London to/from core cities

36 National Rail Travel Survey – Overview Report, December 2010

37 Station Usage and Demand Forecasts for Newly Opened Railway Lines and Stations – Steer Davies Gleave, August 2010

38 An off-peak return to Glasgow Central is currently £5.50 from Merryton and £4.80 from Chatelherault



41 Economic theory suggests that when users change their travel in response to a change in cost (from C0 to C1), the benefit derived (or net consumer surplus) averages half the change in cost (the 'rule of a half'). This is because some users will shift with only the smallest change in cost (so small the cost can still be assumed to be C0) whereas others will only shift when the cost is C1. The average benefit across all users is therefore ½ x (C1 - C0).

42 For example an off-peak return from Larkhall to Glasgow Central is £1.20 more than that from Hamilton Central

43 Regulatory Asset Base (RAB) is the value of a privatised asset equal to what investors paid when the assets were originally privatised plus any subsequent capital expenditure adjusted for depreciation.

44 QR (Quick Response) code is the trademark for a matrix barcode that can be read by a device such as a smartphone or tablet and then opens information about the item to which it is attached in the device's web browser

45 The four new stations created as a result of the Larkhall-Milngavie railway project were Larkhall, Merryton, Chatelherault and Kelvindale.

46 A quarter-page advert was placed in two editions of the weekly The Hamilton Advertiser.

47 The target sample of 336 was based on a 30% sample of daily entries/exits from the four new stations in 2012/13.

48 Here, the four new stations (Chatelherault, Merryton, Larkhall, Kelvindale) as well as those stations on the line with the highest patronage which received service improvements as a result of the Larkhall-Milngavie Railway project were targeted. The additional stations targeted were: Glasgow Central Low Level, Glasgow Queen Street Low Level, Hamilton Central, Hamilton West, Exhibition Centre, Partick, Hyndland, Anniesland, Argyle Street, Rutherglen and Milngavie.

49 The number of journeys is greater than the number of respondents as the survey asked about multiple journeys (information was provided for up to three of the respondent's most frequent trips in the past year).

50 13 respondents declined to provide their home postcode.

51 National Rail Travel Survey – Overview Report, December 2010

52 Covering all stations shown in Table 43

53 Only businesses located in these Glasgow/Motherwell postcodes were invited to participate in the survey: G11, G12, G13, G20, G61, G62, G63, G72, ML1, ML3 and ML9.

54 The User Survey results relate respondents who stated that their home station is Larkhall, Merryton or Chatelherault (n=82); and non-residents who make frequent trips to any of these three stations (n=10).

55 The User Survey results relate only residents of Kelvindale and the surrounding area (n=15) i.e. those who stated that their home station is Kelvindale, Anniesland or Maryhill; and non-residents who make frequent trips to any of these three stations (n=2)

56 Rail demand by ticket type sourced from Office for Rail Regulation (ORR) estimates of station usage

57 Elasticities sourced from PDFH

58 Employment, population and GVApc forecasts for the Glasgow region sourced from TEMPRO v6.2

59 Service frequency penalties sourced from PDFH

60 DS rail journey times and frequencies by station obtained from First ScotRail timetables; DM rail journey times assumed to as per DS; DM frequencies obtained from scheme documentation

61 All journey times and frequencies based on from station to central Glasgow (Central or Queen Street) as User Survey indicated this was the typical journey destination, and in off-peak

62 Bus journey times and frequencies by station taken from operator websites; car journey times taken from AA Route Planner