Recent Social And Economic Research Reports
Scottish Transport Statistics, No 36, 2017 Edition
Recent Social And Economic Research Reports
Research reports published since the previous edition of “Scottish Transport Statistics” are listed below.
Title
Arran & Campbeltown Mainland Ferry Terminal – Appraisal of Options
Publication date
March 2017
Contractor
Peter Brett Associates
Purpose of research
The appraisal of two mainland port options for Arran and Campbeltown.
Main findings
- The review covers four main areas: reliability; onwards transport connectivity; socio-economic impacts; and cost to government.
- On reliability: The available data does not allow for a definitive statement on the comparative reliability of operating the Ardrossan – Brodick / Campbeltown route and a comparative Troon – Brodick / Campbeltown route.
- On connectivity: the changes in travel time imply that an annual disbenefit of £1.3 million would arise if the services were relocated to Troon and moving from Ardrossan to Troon would result in an annual increase of £1 million for fare paying passengers.
- On socio-economic impacts: The study does not review the comparative socio-economic case at either landfall however identified a number of socio-economic points which will assist in the evaluation of the two proposals.
- Costs to government: the Ardrossan submission has a significantly lower cost to government than the equivalent Troon submission. The overwhelming reason for this is the additional crew required to maintain the current number of connections, given the longer crossing time.
Link to report
https://www.transport.gov.scot/media/35892/arran-ferry-report-redacted-vesion-for-publication.pdf
Title
Air Departure Tax - Analysis of Responses to a Consultation on an Overall 50% Reduction Policy Plan and an Environmental Report
Publication date
December 2017
Contractor
Craigforth
Purpose of research
To analyse responses to a public consultation on the Government’s policy for an overall 50% reduction in Air Departure Tax (ADT) and the Environmental report which outlines the likely environmental impacts from the proposed reduction.
Main findings
- A total of 121 responses were received, which included 38 submitted by organisations, 82 submitted by individual members of the public.
- The majority of respondents (85 out of 121) did not support the policy plan for a 50% cut.
- The individuals’ concerns included both environmental and fiscal issues (reduced revenues, regressive nature of the tax).
- A majority of group respondents supported the policy plan (23 of 38 group respondents, including all airline and airport respondents, but only 25% of all respondents). The main reasons given were that it would improve Scotland’s connectivity, wider economic growth, and competitiveness with countries levying lower air departure taxes.
Link to report
www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/12/9975
Title
Borders Railway Year 1 Evaluation
Publication date
June 2017
Contractor
Peter Brett Associates
Purpose of research
A Stage 1 Evaluation of the re-opening of the Borders Railway. The aim of a Stage 1 Evaluation is to provide a high level assessment of the extent to which the project is on track to reach its investment objectives.
Main findings
- The study surveyed both users and non-users of the Borders Railway to understand more about their travel patterns and their perceptions of the service one year after its opening.
- Passenger numbers are higher than forecast at all the Scottish Borders stations and lower than forecast at all the Midlothian stations.
- The majority of patronage on the line is outward (i.e. towards Edinburgh) with Tweedbank accounting for the biggest component of demand
- Commuting is the most common journey purpose.
- Based on the frequency with which respondents indicated they made their current trip, it is calculated that approximately 50,000 (36%) of the estimated annual single trips recorded via the sample were ‘new trips’.
- The re-opening of the Borders Railway has resulted in significant modal shift from the car to public transport.
- There has also been a shift from bus to rail with 29% of those users who made their trip by another mode stating that they previously made their current journey by bus.
- There was generally a high level of satisfaction with the quality of service. Overall, users were least satisfied with facilities / services and the availability of staff at the station(s).
Link to report
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/borders-railway-year-1-evaluation/
Title
Economic Assessment of Air Departure Tax
Publication date
December 2017
Contractor
Peter Brett Associates
Purpose of research
To provide an economic assessment of the Scottish Government’s plans for a 50% reduction in the overall burden of Air Departure Tax (ADT) by the end of the current session of the Scottish Parliament.
Main findings
- The analysis modelled nine scenarios: three options for making the tax reduction: a 100% cut in band A, 100% cut in band B, and a 50% reduction in bands A and B. under each of these, the analysis looked at different assumptions about the extent to which airlines pass on the cut to passengers (known as ‘pass through’), whether fully, partially (50%) or not at all.
- It looked at both potential ‘demand-side’ impacts – i.e. any boost to passenger numbers from lower fares – and ‘supply-side’ effects – (i.e. new air routes, productivity gains, and tourism sector effects). It captures these as changes to passenger numbers, employment and output (GVA) and compares them to the revenue losses from reducing the tax.
- The analysis projected passenger numbers to increase compared to the baseline forecast in all scenarios.
- The impacts, especially the supply-side impacts, were greatest in the scenarios where airlines retain the tax cut and use it to, for example, expand routes. The report notes that since airline responses to any tax cut will vary, the most likely outcome in reality will be partial pass-through and the results must be viewed in light of this.
- Focusing solely on the partial pass-through scenarios, the greatest economic impact was projected under a 100% cut to band A, followed by a 50% cut in bands A and B. Under the scenario in which all of the cut is to band B, the value of the projected economic effects was not sufficient to offset the potential tax revenue foregone.
- Looking across all scenarios, the greatest economic impacts were projected when the tax is reduced by cutting band A. However, this is also associated with the largest revenue losses.
Link to report
www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/12/2270
Title
Estimate of the Impact on Emissions of a Reduction in Air Departure Tax in Scotland
Publication date
August 2017
Contractor
In-house
Purpose of research
This paper updates and extends the assessment published by Transport Scotland in 2014 which estimated the initial one-year greenhouse gas emissions impact from a 50% reduction in UK Air Passenger Duty (APD).
Main findings
- Updates and extends the assessment published by Transport Scotland in 2014 which estimated the initial one-year greenhouse gas emissions impact from a 50% reduction in UK Air Passenger Duty (APD).
- The potential impact on aviation emissions from a 50% reduction in ADT has been calculated for years 2018 to 2021. The estimated net growth in emissions (including the effects of passenger switching) ranges from between 0.087 and 0.101 MtCO2e in 2018 to between 0.090 and 0.105 Mt CO2e in 2021.
Link to report
Title
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Potential in the Scottish Transport Sector From Recent Advances in Transport Fuels and Fuel Technologies
Publication date
January 2017
Contractor
Element Energy
Purpose of research
An analysis of expected emission from Scottish transport under a range of policy environments to assess the potential for emission reduction.
Main findings
- There is potential for significant reductions (emissions of 8.9 MtCO2e/year in 2030 compared to 12.2 MtCO2e/year in 2015, excluding demand growth reduction) to be achieved with plausible deployments of efficient vehicles and zero emission powertrains.
- Light vehicles offer the greatest potential for emissions reductions, through improving efficiency and adoption of low and zero emission powertrains, although it remains to be seen how mass-market customers will buy PHEVs, BEVs, and FCEVs as their ownership costs approach those of conventional vehicles.
- By contrast, emissions from long haul trucks, aviation, and shipping are likely to be challenging to reduce due to expected increases in demand and a current lack of zero emission options.
- The analysis highlights the challenge of meeting the deep reductions required if transport sector emissions are to fall in-line with the overall Scottish target.
- Delivering these additional reductions will require a combination of demand reduction (or at least a reduction in the projected increase in demand), earlier and more widespread deployment of zero emission heavy vehicles including in long haul trucks, and increases in the projected rate of emissions reductions in the marine and aviation sectors, each of which is very challenging to achieve practically.
- A range of supportive policies and regulations could be used to influence emissions reductions, particularly through the uptake rates of low and ultra-low emission vehicles, and different policy measures implemented at different levels of government.
Link to report
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/greenhouse-gas-emissions-reduction-potential-scottish-transport-sector/
Title
How Scotland’s Transport Network Supports the Growth Sectors
Publication date
November 2016
Contractor
Aecom
Purpose of research
Transport Scotland commissioned research to investigate how the Growth Sectors use the transport network.
Main findings
- Of those interviewed, the view was that transport is not the main issue experienced by businesses in Scotland at the moment. Although, all respondents indicated that a strong, resilient transport network was crucial for growth and attracting investment, as well as promoting innovation.
- Respondents acknowledged recent improvements to the transport network and highlighted pinch points on the network.
- The four Case Studies provide on-the-ground evidence of how the transport network enables companies to carry out essential business: moving inputs and products between sites and to market, with all companies relying on a mix of modes. Companies spoke positively about the transport network which is seen as flexible and is instrumental in helping companies to meet the needs of their customers. The network has also helped them to expand their business into new locations. The case studies highlight the importance of the network to the rural economy.
Link to report
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/how-scotland-s-transport-network-supports-the-growth-sectors/
Title
National Transport Strategy Early Engagement Consultation Survey: Analysis of Responses to the Public Consultation Exercise
Publication date
June 2017
Contractor
Craigforth
Purpose of research
To provide an analysis of an early engagement survey intended to shape the key themes of the National Transport Strategy (NTS) Review.
Main findings
- A total of 614 responses were submitted, of which 76 were from groups or organisations and 538 from individual members of the public.
- Around 4 in 5 respondents thought the current Strategy’s outcomes (improved journey times and connections; reduced emissions; improved quality, accessibility and affordability) will still be relevant over the next 20 years.
- A number of key themes emerged from the analysis of further comments made: Promoting cycling, walking and active travel; environmental issues, including reduced emissions; high quality, integrated public transport; rural and island transport; affordability and accessibility; use and quality of the road-network; funding and resourcing pressures; population and preference driven challenges and opportunities; brexit-related challenges; technology-related challenges and opportunities; and strategic policy links (i.e. how the new NTS will interact with or support the delivery of a range of other policy objectives).
Link to report
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/national-transport-strategy-early-engagement-consultation-survey/
Title
National Transport Strategy: Call for Evidence Summary Report
Publication date
January 2018
Contractor
In-house / NTS Review Research and Evidence Working Group
Purpose of research
To summarise the themes, gaps and uncertainties in the evidence arising from submissions to the Call for Evidence conducted as part of the National Transport Strategy (NTS) Review
Main findings
- 66 responses to the call for evidence were received from a wide variety of organisations and sectors.
- Around 800 citations to a wide range of supporting pieces of evidence were made by respondents. This included articles from scientific journals, reports from both national and local government, and reports from the private and third sectors.
- The report summarises findings from evidence received in response to seven question areas given in the Call for Evidence: economic growth and inclusive growth; transport mode choice and demand; the environmental impact of transport; active travel; safe and resilient transport; transport governance; and potential changes in society and technology.
Title
The Carbon Account for Transport Volume 9
Publication date
December 2017
Contractor
In-house
Purpose of research
The Carbon Account for Transport presents detailed analysis of Scottish transport emissions to 2015, along with commentary on the emissions impact of policies and infrastructure plans.
Main findings
- Scottish transport emissions rose in 2014 and 2015 and now stand at 13.1 MtCO2e. In 2015, transport overtook energy supply to become the largest sectorial contributor to Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions. However, emissions from transport remain below the 2007 peak of 14.9 MtCO2e.
- Between 2014 and 2015 the largest proportional rise in emissions was from aviation. The largest absolute rise was from road transport, of which the largest contributors were light goods vehicles.
- Planned, in progress and recently completed road transport infrastructure projects are each expected to generate very small increases in future transport emissions. Longer term, the Edinburgh Glasgow Improvement Project is expected to generate a small emissions saving. Together, these Scottish-funded transport infrastructure projects are estimated to generate a small increase in emissions relative to an outcome without this infrastructure.
Link to report
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/carbon-account-for-transport-volume-9-2017/
Title
The Value of the Trunk Road Network to Society and the Economy in Scotland.
Publication date
March 2017
Contractor
Transport Research Laboratory
Purpose of research
An estimate of the economic and societal contribution made by Scotland’s Trunk Road Network.
Main findings
- Scotland’s Trunk Road Network (TRN) is one of the major infrastructure assets in the country with a gross asset value of over £20 billion. The TRN has a significant economic impact, facilitating employment and enabling economic and societal activities across Scotland.
- The TRN was estimated to contribute around £1.38 billion approximate Gross Value Added (aGVA) each year through the activities of road freight, public transport and road construction and maintenance on that part of the road network.
- Estimates show the Scottish TRN directly supports more than 31,000 jobs across the economy – approximately 1.2% of all jobs in the country, through road freight operations, public transport and the construction and maintenance work on the TRN.
- Businesses benefit from use of the TRN through access to domestic and international markets. The TRN provides economic benefits for road users through travel journey time, and therefore cost, savings on the TRN relative to other roads.
- For Scotland’s tourism industry, an efficient TRN enables it to successfully compete with international competitors and attract worldwide visitors, by offering safe and efficient access throughout the country including remote tourist destinations.
- The TRN in Scotland has beneficial societal impacts. Investment in the TRN improves communities’ access to a range of opportunities: education, employment, healthcare as well as leisure activities, especially those in remote rural areas.
Link to report
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/the-value-of-the-trunk-road-network-to-society-and-the-economy-in-scotland/