Our Approach to Adaptation and Resilience

The following sections identify TS’s current approach to adaptation and resilience, and the impacts of climate change, across our portfolio, whilst highlighting the key messages and urgency scores for infrastructure risks, derived from the CCRA3.

A number of Sub-Outcomes have been identified against our Strategic Outcomes as a means to deliver a well-adapted and resilient transport system for the future.

Roads

Transport Scotland’s Role and Context

Trunk Roads are a fundamental part of the transport system in Scotland which supports a number of transport modes on its network. It supports the SG’s purpose ‘to create a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth.’ TS is responsible for the safe and effective management and maintenance of Trunk Roads and delivery of Scottish road policy. Our asset management process relating to Trunk Roads is delivered through a series of contracts including the Network Maintenance Contracts (NMC), DBFO contracts and services contracts.

The four regional NMCs are managed by TS who oversee the OCs programmes of inspection, maintenance and improvement work and their delivery routine and cyclic maintenance, including winter service.

TS is also responsible for promoting and delivering improvements to Trunk Roads through our operations and maintenance schemes, alongside new infrastructure projects, which are all required to meet a range of standards set out in the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB) – LA 114 Climate – including adaptation measures which will improve the safety and resilience of the network.

Identified Risks

All 7 of the climate risks associated with transport, derived from CCRA3, apply to Trunk Roads and will be considered in delivery of our Strategic Outcomes. These specific risks are shown in Table 2.

Table 2 - CCRA3 risk identifiers associated with Trunk Roads

CCRA3 Risk Identifier	CCRA3 Risk
I1	Risks to infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT) from cascading failures
I2	Risks to infrastructure services from river, surface water and groundwater flooding
I3	Risks to infrastructure services from coastal flooding and erosion
I4	Risks to bridges and pipelines from flooding and erosion
I5	Risks to transport networks from slope and embankment failure
I7	Risks to subterranean and surface infrastructure from subsidence
I12	Risks to transport from high and low temperatures, high winds, lightning

Assessment of Climate Risk on Trunk Roads

Following the release of UKCP09 in 2009, TS sought to update the findings of the Scottish Road Network – Climate Change Study 2005, including its
recommendations to minimise future climate change impacts. TS commissioned Jacobs to update their earlier work, based on United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP02) which produced the 2005 study.

The key objectives of this study were to:

• Use the UKCP09 data to update the understanding of how climate change
  is likely to affect each of the climatic variables considered in the earlier
  Scottish Road Network – Climate Change study
• To emphasise where departures from the previous understanding arise and to identify any implications to the earlier study’s recommended adaptive strategies and relative priority

Overall, the assessment found that the trends in the projected changes in climatic variables remain generally consistent with the findings of the earlier study. It concluded that the understanding of the general picture of climate change and its likely effects on the design, operation and maintenance of Trunk Roads had not significantly altered.

In 2017, an assessment of Trunk Roads identified those sections most vulnerable to the impacts of severe weather, and how this vulnerability will change over time in light of climate change. The study found TS is committed to embedding proactive climate change adaptation within its policies and procedures to strengthen governance, inform current and future maintenance requirements, and reduce the cost and disruption associated with response and repair activities.

The assessment found that approximately 2% of all Trunk Road sections were classed as having ‘Extreme Exposure’ to flooding. When UKCP09 was applied, this level of exposure increased significantly. UKCP09 also indicated the network exposure levels to landslides and high winds would also increase.

Climate change projections are complex in nature and associated with the vast number of variables, uncertainties and assumptions upon which they are based. Whilst the results of the assessment provide a reliable exposure picture of the network to adverse weather conditions for now and selected future timeframes, it is important to acknowledge the limitations associated with the climate change projections and incident data used for the assessment.

Climate impacts on Trunk Roads

There are various weather-related climate impacts that affect Trunk Roads such as flooding, landslides and high winds. How these impact Trunk Roads and work that we undertake in relation to these is detailed below.

Flooding

Flooding remains the most acute and prominent climate risk facing Scotland at present and therefore one of the greatest risks to the effective operation of Trunk Roads. Flooding impacts can pose a major issue for the functionality of Trunk Roads, potentially causing disruption, increasing journey times and maintenance costs. Managing the impacts associated with flooding requires ongoing engagement with colleagues across the SG, Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and the wider public sector to deliver the obligations set out in the Flooding Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009 (FRMA).

Under the FRMA, we support the development and delivery of the Local Flood Risk Management Plans in relation to Trunk Roads. Where appropriate, we collaborate and share data regarding our assets impact on the Potentially Vulnerable Areas (PVAs) and Objective Target Areas (OTAs) defined in the FRMA.

Landslides

The Scottish Road Network and Landslide Study (SRNLS) was commissioned in 2005 in response to heavy and prolonged rainfall that occurred in August 2004, which caused a number of landslides affecting Trunk Roads. The SRNLS collated and set out background information and presented the proposed means of debris flow management on Trunk Roads, the latter known as the ‘Implementation Report.’

The Implementation Report provided several recommendations in relation to landslide management in Scotland. TS has recently carried out a review of these recommendations to inform our future approach to the management of landslides on Trunk Roads.

We continue to undertake a programme of research, through funding from the Scottish Road Research Board (SRRB), a partnership between TS, the Society of Chief Officers of Transportation in Scotland (SCOTS) and the Scottish Road Works Commissioner (SRWC). The programme focuses on slope monitoring and landslide management.

Scour

Bridge scour is the process where sediment supporting or from around bridge abutments or piers is removed by fast moving water, reducing its load carrying capacity. Increased rainfall and potential flooding are likely to exacerbate the frequency and extent of scouring to our structures.

TS is responsible for the management of a number of structural assets which are potentially at risk from scour. A Scour Management Strategy and Flood Emergency Plan is in place for our OCs to ensure a consistent approach to inspecting, monitoring, assessing and recording scour and bed-level changes at these structures. This consistent approach improves the recording of changes at structures, which improves timing of interventions and prioritisation of mitigation measures. TS is currently contributing to a review of the DMRB scour standard, BD 97, which will see it replaced with an updated standard (CS 469) that includes the effects of scour on structures in flood plains.

As part of the work to produce the updated standard (CS 469) we are incorporating SEPA’s updated allowances for climate change regarding river flows at structures. These allowances have increased from a blanket 20% for all of Scotland, to up to 56% depending on the location and catchment area.

This updated standard and our proactive approach in relation to scour will help TS to address the potential damage and risk of failure which future impacts of climate change may cause to our structural assets and increase their resilience.

High Winds

High winds, particularly on exposed sections on Trunk Roads (e.g. bridges and elevated routes), can cause significant disruption and dangerous conditions for road users. High winds can have consequences for congestion, public safety and journey times across the network and therefore it is important that plans are in place to manage the occurrence of high winds on the road network. As a consequence of climate change, the frequency and severity of high winds are likely to increase. Currently wind speed and direction are measured at all estuarial crossings and exposed routes to inform safe passage. 

TS’s High Wind Strategy and National Wind Management Guidelines (HWS) is a guidance document which sets out robust and proportionate wind management procedures for the management of high winds throughout the Scottish road network. It is applicable to all road authorities, stakeholders and our OCs.

Coastal Erosion

Coastal erosion is influenced by many factors: sea level, currents, winds, and waves. It is recognised internationally that climate change will increase both sea levels and the vulnerability of our coastal systems, low lying areas and shorelines.

The risk to Scotland’s Trunk Roads from coastal erosion varies depending on its proximity to the coast. For example, there are many miles of sea walls adjoined to Trunk Roads which often require repairs due to wave action, likely to increase with climate change, and ongoing deterioration. This, alongside interdependencies with other transport infrastructure and communities which rely on our assets in these locations, means consideration must be given to minimising the impacts.

TS aims to reduce and monitor the impact of coastal erosion on the areas of Trunk Roads which may be affected, and our Trunk Roads Adaptation Plan will include an assessment of the climate impacts on Trunk Roads, including coastal erosion.

The Dynamic Coast (DC) project provides an evidence base for past and anticipated coastal changes in Scotland. The second DC was published in 2021 and contains data which should be used to inform our approach to addressing coastal erosion and its effect on our infrastructure assets.

High Winds

High winds, particularly on exposed sections on Trunk Roads (e.g. bridges and elevated routes), can cause significant disruption and dangerous conditions for road users. High winds can have consequences for congestion, public safety and journey times across the network and therefore it is important that plans are in place to manage the occurrence of high winds on the road network. As a consequence of climate change, the frequency and severity of high winds are likely to increase. Currently wind speed and direction are measured at all estuarial crossings and exposed routes to inform safe passage. 

TS’s High Wind Strategy and National Wind Management Guidelines (HWS) is a guidance document which sets out robust and proportionate wind management procedures for the management of high winds throughout the Scottish road network. It is applicable to all road authorities, stakeholders and our OCs.

Sub-Outcome AR 1.6: We are well prepared for increased frequency and severity of high winds with an updated High Wind Strategy and National Wind Management Guidelines based on latest scientific data via the Met Office and UKCP18.

High Temperatures

Intense weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts, are projected to increase as a result of climate change. This includes the potential for prolonged periods of intense high temperatures, which can deteriorate the integrity of a road’s surface.

Within the UK, there have been reports of road surfacing excessively deteriorating and becoming liquefied at surface temperatures over 50°C. Scotland’s Trunk Road surfaces have an approximate design lifespan of 20 years, however, this may be influenced by new variations in our weather system. In high temperatures, swing bridges are also known to overheat and become unable to open to canal traffic or close to allow road traffic.

TS worked closely with the industry supply chain to research the impact of weather on road surfacing materials, including high temperatures, and consequently developed a bespoke material specification.

TS2010 uses a highly-polymer-modified binder, which is much more resistant to temperature changes than conventional binders and can withstand surface temperatures up to 75°C, however, we continue to review relevant road material research.

Coastal Erosion

Coastal erosion is influenced by many factors: sea level, currents, winds, and waves. It is recognised internationally that climate change will increase both sea levels and the vulnerability of our coastal systems, low lying areas and shorelines.

The risk to Scotland’s Trunk Roads from coastal erosion varies depending on its proximity to the coast. For example, there are many miles of sea walls adjoined to Trunk Roads which often require repairs due to wave action, likely to increase with climate change, and ongoing deterioration. This, alongside interdependencies with other transport infrastructure and communities which rely on our assets in these locations, means consideration must be given to minimising the impacts.

TS aims to reduce and monitor the impact of coastal erosion on the areas of Trunk Roads which may be affected, and our Trunk Roads Adaptation Plan will include an assessment of the climate impacts on Trunk Roads, including coastal erosion.

The Dynamic Coast (DC) project provides an evidence base for past and anticipated coastal changes in Scotland. The second DC was published in 2021 and contains data which should be used to inform our approach to addressing coastal erosion and its effect on our infrastructure assets.

Managing Impacts

Asset Management

In 2018, we published our Scottish Trunk Road Asset Management Strategy which sets out how our Trunk Road Network Asset Management Policy will be delivered through enhancements to our procedures and practices. Within the strategy it was emphasised that the focus of our resilience planning is more than the ‘day-to-day’ resilience of our network.

Our climate change adaptation and resilience processes seek to minimise future disruption and ensure that Trunk Roads are resilient to the potential impacts of a changing climate.

TS’s Road Asset Management Plan reflects our Strategy and describes in detail how we deliver asset management at an operational level including detail on ‘Risk Management and Network Resilience,’ climate change risks and associated safety, climate change adaptation and climate change resilience.

Consideration of climate change adaptation and resilience is also embedded and considered as part of major infrastructure projects through the use of the DMRB. The procurement process of our major projects can vary in terms of timescales; therefore the latest climate change predictions are considered at each stage and re-evaluated if new climate predictions for the UK are released. This is an important aspect due to the long life span of transport infrastructure and provides a key opportunity to ‘build in’ resilience and avoid ‘locking in’ climate risks in the future.

Disruption Risk Management

Severe weather incidents can cause unplanned disruption across Scotland’s transport system, including Trunk Roads. Our internal Manual for the Management of the Risk of Unplanned Network Disruption provides requirements for our OCs, including the preparation and administration of a Disruption Risk Management Plan (DRMP). The DRMP process requires our OCs to produce a number of primary and supporting plans, including for the management of high winds, landslides and flooding.

As a result of alterations in our weather system and projected climate change, we may be required to augment our disruption risk management process with a proactive approach to address future impacts.

Changes in our weather patterns may also impact the structural integrity of Trunk Roads with more frequent and intense rainfall, high winds, sudden cold snap events and rising temperatures.

Future Intelligent Transport Systems Strategy

Published in 2017, Transport Scotland’s Future Intelligent Transport Systems Strategy aims to provide clarity on our priorities for the provision of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) to contribute to the safe and efficient operation of Scotland’s trunk roads and motorways and meet the needs of customers.

The Strategy aims to develop our ITS to contribute to improved air quality, lower noise levels and reduce the adverse effects of heavy traffic and consider how best to support a low carbon economy through the selection and use of ITS technology and greener travel choices, including low carbon and electric vehicles and supporting Active Travel.

Scotland’s Road Safety Framework

TS’s Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 (RSF), sets out a long term vision for road safety. ‘Vision Zero’ sets the target of zero fatalities and injuries on Scotland’s roads by 2030. The RSF sets out a Climate Strategic Action to ‘deliver road safety initiatives that positively impact the climate emergency and mitigate the negative impacts climate change may have on road safety’.

Adapting Trunk Roads to the impacts of climate change can assist in making the network safer for all road users and contribute to the delivery of the RSF. In relation to climate change adaptation, road users will need to gain the knowledge, skills and experience required under extreme weather conditions, projected to increase with climate change, to become safe and responsible.

Vulnerable Locations Group

TS Roads Directorate established a Vulnerable Locations Group (VLG) in 2020 with a mandate to support the identification of vulnerable locations on Trunk Roads and provide strategic direction related to weather impacts, including those as a result of climate change. The initial focus of the group has been to deliver cost effective actions in the short term whilst developing a move to a long-term proactive approach, including a dedicated budget for climate change adaptation.

Subsequently, a Vulnerable Locations Operational Group (VLOG) was established leading on schemes that enable delivery of well-adapted, safe, reliable and resilient Trunk Roads to the effects of climate change. The VLOG is currently undertaking a multi-phased Pilot Adaptation Programme (PAP) which aims to deliver best practice to support the mandate and the key aims of the VLG.

Biodiversity and Landscape

Landscape design and management can play a key role in combatting climate change, supporting adaptation, mitigation and resilience. Tree planting schemes on Trunk Roads can reduce surface water runoff during heavy rainfall events and improve ground stability, reducing disruption caused by impacts such as flooding and landslips, whilst also sequestering carbon from the atmosphere.

Our approach to landscape management also supports action in addressing the challenges facing Scotland’s biodiversity, for example, through habitat creation or preservation which has the potential to enhance our natural ecosystems across our network. To support this, as part of NTS2, we have committed to “build on the requirements of national planning policy and strengthen our commitment to securing positive effects for biodiversity in all our works by applying our Fitting Landscapes policy.”

Embedding Adaptation and Resilience

TS will continue to further embed proactive climate change adaptation and resilience measures within our policies and procedures. We will continue to work closely with our OCs to deliver well-adapted Trunk Roads that are safe, reliable and resilient to the current, projected and unexpected impacts of climate change. A summary of how we will achieve our Strategic Outcome for Trunk Roads is shown in Figure 10.

Figure 10 - Strategic Outcome for Trunk Roads and summary of Sub-Outcomes

We will develop:

• our roads adaptation plan
• our biodiversity strategy

We will review and update:

• our scour management strategy and flood emergency plan
• our high wind strategy
• our adaptation and resilience asset management processes
• a strategic road safety plan
• a geo-hazard database
• a road surface database

We will create:

• a proactive climate change adaptation programme for the trunk road network
• flood risk maps working with SEPA

We will assess:

• The risk of coastal erosion to the trunk road network

• UKCP18 projections and their potential impact on the trunk road network

Rail

Transport Scotland’s Role and Context

Scotland’s railway infrastructure is managed by Network Rail (NR), including the delivery of major infrastructure projects and general maintenance. In response to climate change and to support weather resilience, NR manage various Route Weather Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation strategies and plans. These documents closely align with the High Level Output Specification (HLOS).

Scotland’s Railway is a dynamic collaboration of Government and rail industry partners working together to deliver a safe, timely and high-quality railway across Scotland.

TS is responsible for Scotland’s rail policy and delivery, which includes:

• developing rail policy and strategic planning;
• delivering major projects alongside industry partners;
• promoting and investing in the development of sustainable rail freight; and,
• managing economic regulation of the railways, and monitoring and advising on the affordability of the rail programme.

On 1 April 2022, the ScotRail Franchise transferred to ScotRail Trains Ltd, reporting to Scottish Rail Holdings Ltd, a company wholly owned by the Scottish Ministers. Rolling stock (trains) and services are currently managed and delivered through the Scottish Rail Holdings Framework Agreement.

TS also provide input from a Scottish perspective on matters reserved to the UKG such as railway safety and standards.

Identified Risks

All 7 of the climate risks associated with transport, derived from CCRA3, apply to the rail network in Scotland and will be considered in delivery of our Strategic Outcomes. These specific risks are shown in Table 3.

Table 3 - CCRA3 risk identifiers associated with the Rail Network

CCRA3 Risk Identifier	CCRA3 Risk
I1	Risks to infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT) from cascading failures
I2	Risks to infrastructure services from river, surface water and groundwater flooding
I3	Risks to infrastructure services from coastal flooding and erosion
I4	Risks to bridges and pipelines from flooding and erosion
I5	Risks to transport networks from slope and embankment failure
I7	Risks to subterranean and surface infrastructure from subsidence
I12	Risks to transport from high and low temperatures, high winds, lightning

High Level Output Specification

The HLOS is developed by TS for each Control Period of 5 years with input from NR and the Office of Road and Rail (ORR) and is a statement from the Scottish ministers. HLOS acts as the SG’s commitment to improving railway performance, reducing journey times, and increasing the capacity and capability of the Scottish rail network.

The HLOS for Control Period 6 (2019 – 2024) (CP6) refers to ‘A greener Scotland’ and sets relevant requirements regarding climate change, detailed in Table 4. Performance against these requirements is reported via a quarterly dashboard that NR provides to TS.

Table 4 - Climate change requirements in High Level Output Specification for Control Period 6

HLOS CP6 Reference 6.27

Emissions reductions are a priority for a sustainable Scottish economy. Our climate change plans include proposals for new and more testing emissions reduction targets for 2020. Whilst rail is already a low contributor of total transport emissions, investment strategies must become more sustainable to provide a contribution to overall emissions reductions and to ensure enhanced network resilience from adaptation interventions.

HLOS CP6 Reference 6.29

The Scottish Ministers also require Network Rail to work with the rail industry to develop and apply suitable KPIs for monitoring the impact and mitigation of climate change upon network disruption and the means of measuring the benefits of adaptation interventions.

HLOS CP6 Reference 6.30

With the aim of monitoring and reducing the overall environmental impact of rail, the Scottish Ministers require the rail industry to report and build on the existing measures for the overall reduction in environmental impact.

HLOS Control Period 7 (CP7) will cover the period 2024-29 and will be published later in 2022 with climate change adaptation and resilience featuring prominently. The ORR will review NR’s CP7 plans on a regular basis and advise TS on their performance.

Network Rail and ScotRail Adaptation Strategies

Network Rail’s Weather Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (WRCCA) was developed to give an understanding of how current and future weather events could impact on NR’s infrastructure assets. This strategy will help embed the consideration of these impacts into daily activities, making weather resilience and climate change adaptation considerations business as usual. The strategy details the actions that NR will take to combat the impacts of weather and climate change on Scotland's Railway, between 2019 and 2024.

ScotRail announced their Climate Change Adaptation Strategy in 2021 with the strategic objective to build resilience to climate change into their business processes and establish a weather event plan to ensure normal service recovers as soon as possible following weather related disruption.

Following the fatal derailment at Carmont in August 2020, caused by a landslip following intense rainfall, NR commissioned two reports to assess its ability to withstand extreme weather:

• Weather Advisory Task Force, “To review Network Rail's capability to understand and manage adverse weather, particularly with regard to earthwork failures, with the aim of equipping Network Rail with the knowledge base and competencies, so that it becomes better prepared and more resilient in the future.”
• Earthworks Management Task Force, “To review Network Rail's capability to understand and manage adverse weather, particularly with regard to earthwork failures, with the aim of equipping Network Rail with the knowledge base and competencies, so that it becomes better prepared and more resilient in the future.”

Published in March 2021, the reports contained 58 recommendations to increase the resilience of the rail network to extreme weather. Work to deliver this is well underway.

Tomorrows Railway and Climate Change Adaptation

In 2016, the Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) published the research document Tomorrow's Railway and Climate Change Adaptation. This report acknowledges that investment in adaptation measures can improve current railway systems resilience and reliability. Climate change and adaptation modelling is an enabler for prioritised, targeted investment that ultimately leads to better value for money.

The publication highlighted gaps in the railway system and provided some recommendations for adaptation. The following recommendations were put forward:

• Conduct detailed vulnerability mapping of rail assets and locations;
• Enhance weather incident reporting and asset condition monitoring;
• Develop GIS-based alert systems and weather susceptibility maps;
• Make standards and rail assets “climate change-proof”; and
• Develop a multi-agency cooperation model.

Supporting Adaptation and Resilience

Climate change adaptation and resilience is essential for the future of Scotland’s Rail network. Potential climate change impacts such as flooding, subsidence and erosion threaten the current and future effective operation of the network. We will support delivery of a well-adapted rail network which is safe, reliable and resilient by continuing to work closely with our stakeholders. A summary of how we will achieve our Strategic Outcome and our key stakeholders for the rail network is shown in Figure 11.

Figure 11 - Strategic Outcome for the Rail Network, summary of Sub-Outcomes and our key stakeholders

We will support:

• climate change requirements in the HLOS control period seven
• adaptation and resilience specifications and policies

Our stakeholders:

• Network Rail
• ScotRail
• Office for Rail and Road

Aviation

Transport Scotland’s Role and Context

Aviation is a reserved matter for the UK Government and is regulated by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and the Department for Transport (DfT).

There are four major airports in Scotland: Aberdeen International Airport, Edinburgh Airport, Glasgow Airport and Inverness Airport. These operate on an independent commercial basis apart from Inverness, which is operated by Highland and Islands Airports Limited (HIAL) on behalf of the Scottish Ministers.

HIAL manages and operates 11 regional airports in total, which serve some of Scotland’s remote and island communities. HIAL is wholly owned and subsidised by the Scottish Government in accordance with section 34 of the Civil Aviation Act 1982 and is sponsored by Transport Scotland. These subsidies enable HIAL to maintain the safe operation of its airports, as shown in Figure 12.

Glasgow Prestwick, a specialist airport providing a range of aviation services, is also owned by the Scottish Ministers but, unlike HIAL, is operated on a commercial basis.

Scotland’s main airports are commercial businesses and have their own governance arrangements. Coupled with the fact that aviation is reserved, this means that TS has limited influence over climate change adaptation and resilience activities at the airports. However, there are climate actions we can take in working with HIAL.

Identified Risks

Four of the climate risks associated with transport, derived from CCRA3, apply to the aviation network in Scotland and will be considered in delivery of our Strategic Outcomes. These specific risks are shown in Table 5.

Table 5 - CCRA3 risk identifiers associated with the aviation network

CCRA3 Risk Identifier	CCRA3 Risk
I1	Risks to infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT) from cascading failures
I2	Risks to infrastructure services from river, surface water and groundwater flooding
I3	Risks to infrastructure services from coastal flooding and erosion
I12	Risks to transport from high and low temperatures, high winds, lightning

Climate impacts on aviation

Weather related climate impacts that affect aviation include flooding, high temperatures and severe weather. How these impact the airports operated by HIAL is detailed below.

Flooding

Flood protection and sea defence schemes are in place at several HIAL airports, with monitoring schemes at certain locations to inform future interventions. It is important that consideration be given to both current and future climate risks at HIAL airports. Monitoring is essential to ensure that appropriate, timely and effective adaptation and resilience interventions can be implemented. As with all climate risks, consideration should be given to whether a physical intervention is necessary, or a certain level of disruption can be tolerated.

High Temperatures

Runways and operations managed by HIAL should be able to continue as normal as temperatures increase due to climate change. However, there is the potential for prolonged periods of intense high temperatures to deteriorate the integrity of a runway’s surface over time. In terms of benefits, higher temperatures could also lead to a reduction in the use of ‘de-icer’ and runway treatments during the winter.

Severe Weather

The Scottish Government’s Programme for Government 2019-20 committed to decarbonising domestic flights within Scotland by 2040, which will require a shift to low emission alternative aircraft. Current aircraft fleets perform well against cross winds, with visual impacts such as fog currently causing the greatest disruption to services. New low emission aircraft fleets must be capable of performing to the same standard and handling potential increases in severe and extreme weather events as a result of climate change.

Effective Engagement on Adaptation and Resilience

Working with our partners and stakeholders, we aim to be well-informed on the risks that climate change pose to aviation in Scotland, including flooding, high temperatures and severe weather. Further, we will work with HIAL to ensure that climate change adaptation and resilience are embedded in its decision making. A summary of how we will achieve our Strategic Outcome is shown in Figure 13.

Figure 13 - Strategic Outcome for the aviation network, summary of Sub-Outcomes

Effectively engaging aviation stakeholders, ensuring that climate change adaptation and resilience are embedded in decision making.

We will engage on:

• establishing a climate working group
• encouraging a high temperature review
• collaborating on low emission aircraft performance research

Our stakeholders:

• Highland and islands airports limited

Maritime

Transport Scotland’s Role and Context

TS’s maritime responsibility covers legislation, policy, guidance and services relating to Scotland's ferries. TS also acts as the sponsoring body for Scottish Canals, a public body who are responsible for managing Scotland’s canal network.

We regularly collaborate with the Department for Transport on shipping and port policy, including reserved matters. We collaborate with Marine Scotland to ensure a joined-up approach when consenting for ports projects.

Identified Risks

Five of the climate risks associated with transport, derived from CCRA3, apply to the maritime network in Scotland and will be considered in delivery of our Strategic Outcomes. These specific risks are shown in Table 6.

Table 6 - CCRA3 risk identifiers associated with the maritime network

CCRA3 Risk Identifier	CCRA3 Risk
I1	Risks to infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT) from cascading failures
I2	Risks to infrastructure services from river, surface water and groundwater flooding
I3	Risks to infrastructure services from coastal flooding and erosion
I7	Risks to subterranean and surface infrastructure from subsidence
I12	Risks to transport from high and low temperatures, high winds, lightning

Ferries

Caledonian Maritime Assets Ltd (CMAL) are wholly owned by the SG with Scottish Ministers acting as sole shareholders. The company has ownership of the ferry fleet and infrastructure necessary for vital services across Scotland. The fleet consists of 36 ferries: 31 of which are leased to CalMac Ferries Ltd (CFL), and the remaining 5 to Serco Northlink. These services provide key connectivity for remote communities and businesses.

Climate change is likely to increase the intensity and frequency of severe and extreme weather events which could disrupt ferry services. In relation to climate change adaptation, CMAL, CFL and Serco Northlink give consideration to current and future climate risks through a programme of upgrades and modernisation.

TS actively engages with operators, providing information and guidance where appropriate, on services and infrastructure projects through a variety of working and advisory groups.

Ports and Harbours

As a result of climatic changes, we are already seeing sea rise around Scotland’s coast with further rises predicted in the future. These rises, coupled with an increase in the intensity and frequency of severe and extreme weather events, have the potential to damage infrastructure associated with Scotland’s ports and harbours, disrupting lifeline ferry services.

TS has limited levers to directly implement shipping adaptation and resilience interventions, as shipping is a reserved matter. However, we continue to engage closely with ports to ensure port infrastructure is equipped for the future. We aim to build on this work in relation to adaptation and resilience, working closely with the wider shipping and maritime sectors.

Canals

TS acts as the sponsoring body for Scottish Canals (SC), who are responsible for the canal network in Scotland. Through their Environment Strategy 2015-2025, SC is seeking to address the risk and impacts of climate change on the canal network.

This strategy addresses climate change adaptation, specifically around flood alleviation, through its ‘Water Resource Management and Flood Control’ theme. It indicates that the historical flood risk from the canals is low, however, there is potential for their use in flood mitigation and alleviation on a wider catchment scale. A successful example of this is Glasgow’s Smart Canal which uses the 250-year-oldForth & Clyde Canal and smart technology to provide flood risk mitigation to reduce the impacts of climate change across North Glasgow.

The historic canal structures are vulnerable to the land use change which has occurred since they were built, and this is now being exacerbated by climate change and wider catchment management. A recent example of this impact is the 2020 breach of the Union Canal embankment near Linlithgow which resulted in damage to the Edinburgh to Glasgow railway line.

SC’s Asset Management Strategy 2018-2030 notes that improving resilience depends as much on monitoring asset condition and predicting failure as it does on regular maintenance. This is relatively simple in regard to modern structures, however, managing historic assets can be labour intensive and expensive due to the complexity associated with these structures.

As a sponsoring body, TS regularly engages with SC on a variety of issues including climate change.

Promoting Adaptation and Resilience

TS is committed to promoting the importance of adaptation and resilience to safeguard lifeline ferry services, ports and harbours and canals in response to the threat of climate change. Risks to the maritime network include flooding, coastal erosion and increased severe weather events. We, along with our partners, will ensure the maritime system in Scotland is safe, well-adapted and resilient. A summary of how we will achieve our Strategic Outcome and our key stakeholders for the maritime network is shown in Figure 14.

Figure 14 - Strategic Outcome for the maritime network, summary of Sub-Outcomes and our key stakeholders

We will promote:

• organisational awareness of climate science guidance
• collaboration on proactive adaptation and resilience interventions and opportunities

Our stakeholders:

• Caledonian Maritime Assets Limited (CMAL)
• Calmac Ferries Limited (CFL)
• SERCO Northlink

• Scottish Canals

Wider Adaptation and Resilience Activity

Adaptation and Resilience Communications

TS’s website provides an essential interface with an overview of our activities, legislation, plans, policy, projects and research. Traveline is a public-private partnership between TS, public transport operators and local authorities and acts as Scotland’s national public transport information service - the ‘one-stop’ for all bus, rail, coach, air and ferry times in Scotland. TS’s social media channels provide information regarding both our and our stakeholders key activities across the transport system

The Traffic Scotland Service supports the safe, efficient and resilient operation of Trunk Roads using an extensive array of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) and roadside infrastructure such as motorway gantry signals, variable message signs (VMS) and CCTV, which are co-ordinated from the Traffic Scotland National Control Centre at South Queensferry. It monitors Trunk Roads 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, responding to planned and unplanned incidents and events, setting dynamic signing, speed limits and providing real-time information to drivers through the VMS. 

The Traffic Scotland ITS automatically detect the formation of queues in real-time, setting temporary speed limits and lane restrictions where necessary to reduce collisions and ease congestion. The service also uses a wide range of data sources to provide accurate and reliable traffic and transport information to the public to help people plan journeys through the Traffic Scotland websites and Social Media platforms.

The Traffic Scotland website is a well-used source of accurate traffic and travel information, receiving around 4.5 million visitors annually. At times of major disruption, such as severe weather, daily use of the website can rise significantly confirming its status as a trusted source. Further to this, individual transport operators, including that of our OCs on Trunk Roads, and across various modes have their own websites with up-to-date information and guidance.

The aim of these platforms is to provide up to date, accurate and understandable information on all public transport services within Scotland, and from Scotland to major destinations in other parts of the UK. These services collate data relating to roadworks, road traffic collisions, congestion and weather events allowing the provision of information to enable the operational efficiency of Scotland’s transport system.

Effective communication regarding the risks and impacts associated with climate change on our transport system and its networks is a key element to ensuring they are well adapted, safe, reliable and resilient. Moreover, it enables users to make informed choices regarding their travel behaviour.

Cross Sector Engagement and Best Practice

Cross sector engagement and best practice on adaptation and resilience is important to build capacity to understand and respond to the CCRA3 risks set out above. This is particularly true for CCRA3 ‘I1’ risks relating to cascading failures across infrastructure networks, such as transport, energy and water.

Adaptation Scotland (AS) is a SG funded programme which aims to support adaptation capacity building within the public sector and is delivered by sustainability charity Sniffer. TS currently sits as a member of the AS Programme Board and is an active participant on their Benchmarking Working Group, which meets regularly to share knowledge, latest activity and best practice amongst peers. This work will continue to seek opportunities to work together across the transport sector and beyond.

TS’s collaboration with AS has aided in the development of the Adaptation Capability Framework (ACF) for a Climate Ready Public Sector. TS has utilised the ACF to understand its current adaptation maturity level, setting a benchmark for the agency (Annex A).

In October 2021, as part of preparations and engagement for the UN Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, TS played a leading role in an SG led Climate Resilience Summit. TS committed to the Ambition Statement set out at this summit which outlined the following:

• Support enhanced understanding and action on climate risk and look forward to collaborating across sectors;
• Will further embed climate adaptation in our culture, corporate governance and organisational priorities as an immediate priority and throughout 2022 and beyond; and
• Express our support for an ambitious global deal at COP26 which addresses adaptation and resilience needs in a fair and just way.

Development of this engagement approach to adaptation and resilience has also been supplemented by a series of peer engagement activities, including interviews with international transport peers in Norway, Sweden and North America. Research, knowledge exchange, adaptation approaches and case studies were captured through best practice discussions.

Going forward, TS will continue to seek meaningful engagement with peers on climate adaptation and resilience to ensure best practice and facilitate ongoing knowledge exchange.

Behavioural Change and Organisational Influence

Scotland’s response to the global climate emergency will require action across society and sectors. The SG is working to ensure Scotland is informed, resilient and well-adapted to the changing climate. Behavioural change is recognised as a key driver to achieve this. SCCAP2 includes detail of how behavioural change (e.g. checking weather forecasts regularly) can help individuals, communities, businesses and organisations to become well-adapted to climate change.

Across TS’s portfolio, there is a need to understand climate change to enable informed decisions, ensuring sufficient mitigation, adaptation and resilience interventions. The ability to influence and embed an instinctive understanding of the subject can assist staff in the overall delivery of the Outcomes within this document. Further to this, climate literacy can influence wider behavioural change.

Systemic behaviour change cannot happen in isolation and requires a cultural shift starting with leadership. An effective governance structure can promote a common understanding of climate change. This enables staff to apply a consistent and appropriate approach in relation to mitigation, adaptation and resilience within their role, while still considering specific business needs and priorities.

Governance of Adaptation and Resilience

Further embedding climate change adaptation and resilience within our governance structure, stakeholder engagement and communication activity is essential to delivery of our adaptation and resilience vision.

Our CEO is also an active member of the SG’s Global Climate Emergency Board, who are responsible for the CCPu across all sectors and have recently taken forward a specific climate change adaptation work stream to further progress action in Scotland and response to the CCRA3 and the recent CCC review of SCCAP2. TS is also a designated risk owner within SG’s response to the CCRA3 risks and these risks will be addressed by this approach.

Through the development and implementation of our internal governance structure (see AR 5.6) for the ACCAR, target setting, monitoring and evaluation in relation to our Strategic and Sub-Outcomes will be reported through current climate change reporting mechanisms. Actions associated with these outcomes will be set out in our subsequent plans, such as the Trunk Roads Adaptation Plan.

We will also draw on our various other strategies and plans in this regard to develop an effective monitoring and evaluation process that helps us achieve our outcomes and contribute to other strategies, such as the NTS2 or RSF.

We will ensure our organisation is capable of delivering well adapted transport system that is safe, reliable and resilient. A summary of our Sub-Outcomes regarding governance, engagement and communication is provided in Figure 15.

Figure 15 - Summary of our Sub-Outcomes for governance, engagement and communication

We will:

• baseline our organisation's adaptation maturity level
• deliver bespoke climate literacy training for staff
• implement an ACCAR governance structure

In addition, we will support our stakeholders and public by:

• continually updating our website with the latest climate science
• informing stakeholders on key developments
• leading on knowledge sharing within the sector