Conclusion
Summary of Findings
The current concessionary fare offerings for young people in Scotland is shortly about to undergo considerable transformation with the introduction of the Under 22s free bus scheme. The delivery of this commitment has to be considered in the context of an ongoing global pandemic. However the real test will be in the take up and demand for the scheme, given the current uncertainty around public transport usage and capacity over the coming months and years in a post-COVID-19 society.
The work being carried out on the Under 22s free bus commitment provides a useful analytical research case to assess uptake and usage of fare-free public transport, particularly over the coming year following a period of low public transport usage. In-depth cost and benefit analysis of the scheme will be useful to determining the value of any future extensions of free bus (or other modes) for targeted age ranges or groups in society.
Based on the evidence obtained and research carried out for this review, it is clear that there is a growing need for further support for young people, both in transport and more broadly. There is obvious merit in giving further consideration to whether the current concessionary fare offerings within Scotland best meet the needs of Scotland’s young people and whether more could be done to ensure public transport does not act as a barrier in ensuring young people are able to access education, work, training and other opportunities across the country.
Data on the impacts of COVID-19 within the Scottish labour market show that young people are among those who are being hardest hit financially by the pandemic. Alignment between incentivising young people to use public transport and supporting climate change targets is clear. The Under 22s scheme will target a demographic who are likely to be first-time car purchasers and incentivise a switch to a more sustainable mode. There are also a number of key benefits from recent increased investment in active travel infrastructure.
The Young Person’s Guarantee offers further policy alignment; for those young people continuing to remain in education and training over the coming years, it is vital that connections are in place for access to these opportunities. Alongside this, increasing options for alternative active travel interventions to access education, training and work would bring a great deal of benefits, particularly whilst anxieties around public transport and COVID-19 may remain for some time to come.
However, extending concessionary fares in isolation will not provide the silver bullet to the challenges faced by young people today across society. Maintaining and improving the availability of public transport services across the country and ensuring connections are in place for where young people need to go is also vital, but challenging. Additionally, coordinated work between colleagues working across transport, housing, employment, climate change and other key areas of government (local and national) will be critical to the decision-making process to ensure that the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic do not go on to disproportionately impact on young people’s life chances. Ensuring that young people are part of this decision making process and related conversations will also be fundamental to the success of this, and the lifespan of any initiatives which come about as a result.
The uncertainty as transport demand reacts to additional restrictions and the subsequent long-term impacts is unprecedented. This uncertainty will remain for a period after the virus. Given the uncertainty there is a strong case for not making decisions in the short-term that will have long-term consequences before the full picture is known. Aside from the immediate impact of COVID-19, there are a number of systemic factors at play in the wider economy and society that make careful consideration of public transport essential. These relate to key themes around inclusive growth, climate change, and wellbeing, as well as ongoing changes in society that are being impacted and potentially accelerated by the current situation.
The options appraisal highlighted three possible interventions which scored well. The three could broadly be categorised as universal, targeted and novel:
- The first, to offer universal free travel across all modes, to all young people under the age of 26, has obvious implementation challenges, not least with regards to affordability in today’s financial climate.
- The second, to offer free travel on all modes to young parents (under 26), offers a more targeted intervention, however with no similar precedent in place for such offerings and delivery mechanisms.
- The third option, to provide access to a bicycle for all U26s, through either grant funding of appropriate cycle hire, or free cycle hire, aligns with the health and wellbeing objectives of Scottish Government, as well as ensuring young people are able to benefit from the investments in active travel infrastructure made in recent years. Again there were significant deliverability factors. However the First 100 days free bike commitment was subsequently made as part of manifesto commitments, where a number of pilots are currently working well, with 988 bikes issued and ambitious plans to deliver considerably more.
Recommendation
It is recommended that the findings from this review be used to inform considerations on possible options for extending concessionary travel as part of the Fair Fares Review. It is also recommended that evidence and data from the Under 22s free bus scheme be used to inform the take up and demand for fare free public transport for young people.
These considerations should be supported, and further informed by identifying the wider policy actions required to support the delivery of NTS2 as well as wider Scottish Government ambitions and set out through the NTS2 Delivery Plan.