Annex B: How we came up with the list of priority countries
Annex B: How we came up with the list of priority countries
Our aim is to provide the international connectivity needed to support sustainable economic growth and help Scotland become a leader in 21st century tourism. Therefore, in coming up with the list of priority countries, we considered the current data and projections on international visitors to Scotland, exports, foreign direct investments, international students and research collaborations.
International visitors
Scotland Outlook 2030: Responsible tourism for a sustainable future, identifies connectivity as one of the six conditions for success.
In 2019 the USA, Germany and France were the top three countries in terms of international visitor numbers, with China third in terms of visitor spend. Longer term, people from China and India are expected to make up a greater share of the international visitors to Scotland.
|
Country |
Visits |
Spend |
Nights |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
000s |
% |
£m |
% |
000s |
% |
|
|
USA |
636 |
18% |
717 |
28% |
4,246 |
16% |
|
Germany |
322 |
9% |
196 |
8% |
2,228 |
8% |
|
France |
222 |
6% |
135 |
5% |
1,723 |
6% |
|
Netherlands |
182 |
5% |
95 |
4% |
1,210 |
4% |
|
China* |
172 |
5% |
142 |
6% |
2,047 |
7% |
|
Australia |
148 |
4% |
146 |
6% |
1,706 |
6% |
|
Ireland |
146 |
4% |
60 |
2% |
475 |
2% |
|
Spain* |
128 |
4% |
51 |
2% |
915 |
3% |
|
Canada |
125 |
4% |
92 |
4% |
1,023 |
4% |
|
Italy* |
122 |
4% |
86 |
3% |
1,072 |
4% |
|
Rest of world |
1,257 |
36% |
818 |
32% |
10,741 |
39% |
|
Total |
3,460 |
100% |
2,538 |
100% |
27,385 |
100% |
Source: IPS, 2019. Figures may not sum up due to rounding. *Figures based on lower sample sizes.
Exports
Scotland: A Trading Nation identified a priority list of countries where we expect the bulk of future growth in exports to come from. Despite the economic impact of COVID-19, we believe that this priority ranking remains valid. Although goods are mainly transported by sea, services exports often rely on people being able to travel quickly and easily to other countries. Good air connectivity to the target export market also makes it easy to build up the contacts and local knowledge that businesses need to export successfully. Passenger flights are also used to transport higher value/perishable goods, in addition to dedicated air freight services.
|
Export Priority Rank |
Country |
Share of Current Exports |
Share of export value gap |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
USA |
17.1% |
10.7% |
|
2 |
Germany |
7.2% |
13.7% |
|
3 |
France |
7.5% |
6.5% |
|
4 |
Netherlands |
7.6% |
7.8% |
|
5 |
Switzerland |
2.3% |
3.1% |
|
6 |
Norway |
3.1% |
3.4% |
|
7 |
Poland |
1.2% |
3.8% |
|
8 |
Belgium |
3.1% |
3.2% |
|
9 |
China |
1.9% |
2.7% |
|
10 |
Ireland |
4.5% |
1.9% |
|
11 |
Denmark |
2.7% |
1.9% |
|
12 |
Sweden |
1.8% |
3.0% |
|
13 |
Italy |
2.3% |
3.5% |
|
14 |
Canada |
1.8% |
1.2% |
|
15 |
Spain |
2.6% |
2.2% |
Foreign Direct investments
In 2019 the top countries for foreign direct investment in Scotland were the United States (35%) and France (9%), followed by Germany, Japan and Norway in equal third place.
Higher education and research
Being able to travel to Scotland easily from overseas is important for Scotland's higher education sector and facilitates international research collaboration. Before the UK left the EU, Germany, Italy and Ireland accounted for the highest number of international students studying in Scotland. Europe was also the most important continent for research collaboration. Looking to the future, Scottish universities are looking to attract more students from the USA and China.
Conclusion
The countries identified as being important for export growth, foreign direct investment, inbound tourism, higher education and research are broadly similar. For example, the USA has the highest export priority ranking, is the top country for foreign direct investment, and accounts for 20% of the international visitor spend pre-COVID-19 and the second highest number of international students. It is on this basis that we drew up our draft list of priority countries.