Article 1: Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020
Article 1: Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020
Figure 8 Progress towards the 2020 casualty reduction targets
1. Introduction
Scotland's Road Safety Framework was launched in June 2009. It set out the vision for road safety in Scotland, the main priorities and issues and included Scotland-specific targets and milestones which were adopted from 2010.
| Target | 2015 milestone % reduction | 2020 target % reduction |
|---|---|---|
| People killed | 30% | 40% |
| People seriously injured | 43% | 55% |
| Children (aged < 16) killed | 35% | 50% |
| Children (aged < 16) seriously injured | 50% | 65% |
Each reduction target will be assessed against the 2004-08 average. In addition to the targets a 10 per cent reduction target in the slight casualty rate will continue to be adopted.
The four main targets differ to previous targets in that deaths have been separated out from serious injuries as, in recent years, trends have been different - serious injuries falling steadily but deaths declining at a lower rate.
The targets are deliberately challenging, particularly for child deaths as the child fatality rate in Scotland is higher than in England and Wales. The child fatality target itself will be monitored using a 3 year rolling average due to the small numbers of fatalities each year.
To illustrate the reductions necessary the following table show the level of casualties inferred by the 2015 milestones and 2020 targets above.
| 2004-2008 average | 2015 milestone | 2020 target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| People killed | 292 | 204 | 175 |
| People seriously injured | 2,605 | 1,484 | 1,172 |
| Children (aged < 16) killed | 15 | 10 | 8 |
| Children (aged < 16) seriously injured | 325 | 163 | 114 |
Charts showing indicative lines of progress are in figure 8. More detail about the calculation of these indicative lines is included in section 5 below.
2 Summary of Progress
The 2012 figures show:
- 174 people were reported as killed in 2012, 40 per cent (118) below the 2004-2008 average of 292 - so the reduction is below the 2015 milestone and the 2020 target.
- 1,974 people were reported as seriously injured in 2012, 24 per cent (631) below the 2004-2008 average of 2,605 but above the 2015 milestone.
- 2 children were reported as killed in 2012, an average of 4 a year in the 2010-2012 period, 73 per cent (11) below the 2004-2008 average of 15, and below the 2015 milestone and 2020 target of a 50 per cent fall.
- 194 children were reported as seriously injured in 2012, 40 per cent (131) below the 2004-2008 average of 325 and below the 2015 milestone.
- The slight casualty rate of 24.18 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2012 was 26 per cent below the 2004-2008 baseline average of 32.47.
Figure 8 shows progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2020.
3 Modes of Transport
Table Ib shows progress against the 2020 targets by mode of transport.
Numbers killed
As shown in Table Ia below, a reduction of 21 per cent compared to the baseline was required in 2012 to remain on the trajectory for this target. The overall reduction for 2012 is 40 per cent.
Percentage reductions are not recorded in Table Ib where the denominator is 50 or fewer so percentage changes on 2004-2008 have only been calculated for cars and pedestrian fatalities. Car fatalities are down 55 per cent on the baseline which exceeds the 2020 target. Pedestrian fatalities are down by twelve per cent from the baseline, so above the trajectory.
Numbers Seriously Injured
As shown in Table Ia below, a reduction of just under 31 per cent compared to the baseline was required in 2012 to remain on the trajectory for this target. The overall reduction for 2012 is 24 per cent.
Table Ib shows that only car serious injuries have fallen by a greater percentage than that implied by the trajectory. The numbers of car drivers and passengers seriously injured has fallen by 33 per cent since the baseline. All other modes except pedal cycles have seen a fall when compared to the baseline, however motor cycle, car and goods vehicle seriously injured casualties have also seen an increase since 2011 of 17 per cent, 12 per cent and 8 per cent respectively. There has also been an increase in the numbers seriously injured in the 'other' category.
Children killed
The number of child fatalities is relatively small and the average of 5 over the last three years is below the 50 per cent reduction target set for 2020. Table Ib shows that the average number of child fatalities for 2010-2012 for each mode is below the 2004-2008 baseline.
Pedestrian fatalities have fallen from an average of 6 per year in 2004-2008 tan average of just over 1 per year in 2009-2011. Pedal Cycle fatalities has fallen from an average of 2 per year in the baseline period tan average of 1 in the last three years. The number of fatalities as passengers in cars has fallen as well from an average of 6 per year in the baseline period to 2 per year in the 2010-2012 period,.
Children seriously injured
As shown in Table Ia below, a reduction of just under 37 per cent compared to the baseline was required in 2012 to remain on the trajectory for this target. The overall reduction for 2012 is 40 per cent.
Table Ib shows that car and pedestrian serious injuries have fallen by a greater percentage than that implied by the trajectory, 45 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. Percentages have not been calculated for other modes due to small denominators. The figures for all modes in 2012 are below the 2004-2008 baseline apart from goods where there were 5 serious injuries in 2012 compared tan average of 1 in the baseline period.
Slightly injured casualties
Because of the limited availability of detailed reliable road traffic estimates for Scotland, Table Ia shows the numbers of slight casualties (rather than slight casualty rates) for categories of road user. The table also shows the overall total volume of traffic and the overall slight casualty rate.
Table Ib shows that slight injuries per million vehicle kilometres are 26 per cent below the 2004-2008 average.
Apart from pedal cycles, the number of slight casualties has fallen compared to the baseline for all modes of transport. The largest reductions are seen for bus / coach, pedestrian, cars and 'other', 43 per cent, 32 per cent, 27 per cent and 27 per cent respectively. Car users make up two thirds of slight casualties and there has been a reduction of a quarter compared to the baseline period. Pedal cycles on the other hand have shown an 18 per cent increase on the 2004-2008 average. There is some evidence to suggest that this increase is smaller than the increase in cyclists on the road over the same period.
4. Other statistics for monitoring progress
Table 40 in the main section of this publication shows the baseline figures for each local authority area for the four targets relating to numbers killed and seriously injured (separately for trunk roads, local authority roads and all roads), along with the corresponding figures for each of the past 10 years and the latest five years' averages. Table 41 provides figures for each local authority area related to the numbers slightly injured, and Table 42 shows figures for each Police Force area related tall five targets. In addition, many other tables include the 2004-2008 baseline averages.
5. Assessing progress towards the casualty reduction targets
One way of assessing progress towards the targets is to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 2006 (mid point of the 2004 to 2008 average) and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, to the milestone for 2015 and from there to the target for 2020. This is the approach adopted by the GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. The indicative line starts at the baseline figure in 2006 as that is the middle year of the baseline period. Other approaches could have been used: there are many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for 2020.
The method adopted to produce the indicative target lines shown in Figure 8 involves a constant percentage reduction in each year after 2006 to the 2015 milestone, then a constant percentage reduction between 2015 and 2020. The resulting indicative target lines represent the percentages of the baseline averages which are shown in the table below. They are not straight lines, because of the compounding over the years effect of constant annual percentage reductions (to two decimal places, the falls are: 3.89% per annum for killed to meet the 2015 milestone and 3.02% between 2015 and 2020. For seriously injured casualties the falls are 6.06% and 4.61%. For child killed 4.67% and 4.37 or children seriously injured 7.41% and 6.90.
Table Ia Constant percentage reductions needed to achieve 2015 and 2020 targets
| Killed | Serious | Child killed | Child serious | |||||
| % baseline (milestone from 2015) | % reduction from baseline (milestone) | % baseline (milestone from 2015) | % reduction from baseline (milestone) | % baseline (milestone from 2015) | % reduction from baseline (milestone) | % baseline (milestone from 2015) | % reduction from baseline (milestone) | |
| 2006 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| 2007 | 96.1% | 3.9% | 93.9% | 6.1% | 95.3% | 4.7% | 92.6% | 7.4% |
| 2008 | 92.4% | 7.6% | 88.3% | 11.7% | 90.9% | 9.1% | 85.7% | 14.3% |
| 2009 | 88.8% | 11.2% | 82.9% | 17.1% | 86.6% | 13.4% | 79.4% | 20.6% |
| 2010 | 85.3% | 14.7% | 77.9% | 22.1% | 82.6% | 17.4% | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 2011 | 82.0% | 18.0% | 73.2% | 26.8% | 78.7% | 21.3% | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 2012 | 78.8% | 21.2% | 68.7% | 31.3% | 75.0% | 25.0% | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 2013 | 75.8% | 24.2% | 64.6% | 35.4% | 71.5% | 28.5% | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| 2014 | 72.8% | 27.2% | 60.7% | 39.3% | 68.2% | 31.8% | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 2015 | 70.0% | 30.0% | 57.0% | 43.0% | 65.0% | 35.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| 2016 | 97.0% | 3.0% | 95.4% | 4.6% | 95.6% | 4.4% | 93.1% | 6.9% |
| 2017 | 94.1% | 5.9% | 91.0% | 9.0% | 91.5% | 8.5% | 86.7% | 13.3% |
| 2018 | 91.2% | 8.8% | 86.8% | 13.2% | 87.5% | 12.5% | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| 2019 | 88.5% | 11.5% | 82.8% | 17.2% | 83.7% | 16.3% | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 2020 | 85.8% | 14.2% | 79.0% | 21.0% | 80.0% | 20.0% | 69.9% | 30.1% |
Table Ib: Reported killed casualties by mode of transport
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle | Motor cycle | Car | Bus/coach | Goods1 | Other2 | All road users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-08 average | 65 | 9 | 42 | 162 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 292 | ||
| 2005 | 76 | 7 | 42 | 167 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 308 | ||
| 2006 | 66 | 16 | 34 | 153 | - | 15 | 2 | 286 | ||
| 2007 | 61 | 10 | 58 | 175 | - | 8 | 2 | 314 | ||
| 2008 | 60 | 4 | 40 | 160 | - | 15 | 2 | 281 | ||
| 2009 | 60 | 9 | 34 | 153 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 270 | ||
| 2010 | 47 | 5 | 43 | 116 | - | 5 | - | 216 | ||
| 2011 | 47 | 7 | 35 | 105 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 208 | ||
| 2012 | 57 | 9 | 21 | 73 | 1 | 13 | - | 174 | ||
| 08-12 ave | 51 | 6 | 37 | 125 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 232 | ||
| 2020 target | 39 | 6 | 25 | 97 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 175 | ||
| Percent changes: | ||||||||||
| 2012 on 2011 | * | * | * | -30 | * | * | * | -16 | ||
| 2012 on 2004-08 average | -12 | * | * | -55 | * | * | * | -40 | ||
| Reported seriously injured casualties by mode of transport | ||||||||||
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle | Motor cycle | Car | Bus/coach | Goods1 | Other2 | All road users | |||
| 2004-08 average | 656 | 134 | 371 | 1,258 | 55 | 82 | 51 | 2,605 | ||
| 2005 | 677 | 116 | 371 | 1,304 | 63 | 83 | 52 | 2,666 | ||
| 2006 | 688 | 131 | 352 | 1,258 | 57 | 91 | 58 | 2,635 | ||
| 2007 | 594 | 147 | 381 | 1,110 | 33 | 87 | 33 | 2,385 | ||
| 2008 | 645 | 155 | 396 | 1,203 | 59 | 65 | 52 | 2,575 | ||
| 2009 | 509 | 152 | 332 | 1,136 | 36 | 73 | 50 | 2,288 | ||
| 2010 | 457 | 138 | 319 | 903 | 52 | 60 | 40 | 1,969 | ||
| 2011 | 514 | 156 | 293 | 756 | 51 | 63 | 44 | 1,877 | ||
| 2012 | 460 | 167 | 342 | 845 | 43 | 68 | 49 | 1,974 | ||
| 08-12 ave | 517 | 154 | 336 | 969 | 48 | 66 | 47 | 2,137 | ||
| 2020 target | 295 | 60 | 167 | 566 | 25 | 37 | 23 | 1,172 | ||
| Percent changes: | ||||||||||
| 2012 on 2011 | -11 | 7 | 17 | 12 | -16 | 8 | * | 5 | ||
| 2012 on 2004-08 average | -30 | 25 | -8 | -33 | -22 | -17 | -3 | -24 | ||
| Reported children (0-15) killed by mode of transport | ||||||||||
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle | Motor cycle | Car | Bus/coach | Goods1 | Other2 | All road users | |||
| 2004-08 average | 6 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 15 | ||
| 2005 | 5 | 4 | - | 1 | - | - | 1 | 11 | ||
| 2006 | 9 | 5 | - | 10 | - | 1 | - | 25 | ||
| 2007 | 4 | 1 | - | 4 | - | - | - | 9 | ||
| 2008 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | - | - | - | 20 | ||
| 2009 | 1 | 1 | - | 3 | - | - | - | 5 | ||
| 2010 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | 4 | ||
| 2011 | 2 | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | 7 | ||
| 2012 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | ||
| 08-12 ave | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | - | 8 | ||
| 2020 target | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 8 | ||
| 10-12 ave | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | - | 4 | ||
| Percent changes: | ||||||||||
| 09-2011 on 2004-08 average | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | ||
| Reported child (0-15) seriously injured casualties by mode of transport | ||||||||||
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle | Motor cycle | Car | Bus/coach | Goods1 | Other2 | All road users | |||
| 2004-08 average | 218 | 29 | 8 | 62 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 325 | ||
| 2005 | 239 | 26 | 11 | 68 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 357 | ||
| 2006 | 239 | 35 | 10 | 60 | 4 | - | 2 | 350 | ||
| 2007 | 181 | 28 | 4 | 51 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 269 | ||
| 2008 | 194 | 18 | 5 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 279 | ||
| 2009 | 155 | 26 | 2 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 253 | ||
| 2010 | 150 | 23 | 3 | 40 | 7 | - | - | 223 | ||
| 2011 | 139 | 23 | 2 | 34 | 4 | - | 1 | 203 | ||
| 2012 | 132 | 21 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 5 | - | 194 | ||
| 08-12 ave | 154 | 22 | 3 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 230 | ||
| 2020 target | 76 | 10 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 114 | ||
| Percent changes: | ||||||||||
| 2012 on 2011 | -5 | * | * | * | * | * | * | -4 | ||
| 2012 on 2004-08 average | -40 | * | * | -45 | * | * | * | -40 | ||
| Reported slight casualties by mode of transport | ||||||||||
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle | Motor cycle | Car | Bus/coach | Goods1 | Other2 | All road users | Traffic | Slight casualty rate | |
| numbers | mill veh-km | per 100 mill veh-km | ||||||||
| 2004-08 average | 2,135 | 613 | 637 | 9,187 | 693 | 503 | 431 | 14,200 | 43,736 | 32.47 |
| 2005 | 2,308 | 649 | 677 | 9,532 | 794 | 495 | 478 | 14,933 | 42,718 | 34.96 |
| 2006 | 2,104 | 640 | 658 | 9,272 | 706 | 484 | 456 | 14,320 | 44,120 | 32.46 |
| 2007 | 2,050 | 563 | 640 | 8,793 | 590 | 506 | 431 | 13,573 | 44,666 | 30.39 |
| 2008 | 1,888 | 566 | 612 | 8,314 | 527 | 467 | 373 | 12,747 | 44,470 | 28.66 |
| 2009 | 1,643 | 647 | 646 | 8,328 | 437 | 423 | 416 | 12,540 | 44,219 | 28.36 |
| 2010 | 1,509 | 636 | 491 | 7,293 | 487 | 386 | 359 | 11,161 | 43,488 | 25.66 |
| 2011 | 1,503 | 661 | 482 | 6,930 | 452 | 382 | 305 | 10,715 | 43,390 | 24.69 |
| 2012 | 1,452 | 725 | 502 | 6,729 | 395 | 411 | 314 | 10,528 | 43,549 | 24.18 |
| 08-12 ave | 1,599 | 647 | 547 | 7,519 | 460 | 414 | 353 | 11,538 | 43,823 | 26.33 |
| 2020 target | 29.22 | |||||||||
| Percent changes: | ||||||||||
| 2012 on 2011 | -3 | 10 | 4 | -3 | -13 | 8 | 3 | -2 | 0 | -2 |
| 2012 on 2004-08 average | -32 | 18 | -21 | -27 | -43 | -18 | -27 | -26 | 0 | -26 |