Reported Road Casualties Scotland 2013

Article 1: Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020

Figure 8 Progress towards the 2020 casualty reduction targets

Figure 8 Progress towards the 2020 casualty reduction targets

Article 1: Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020

1. Introduction

Scotland's Road Safety Framework was launched in June 2009. It set out the vision for road safety in Scotland, the main priorities and issues and included Scotland-specific targets and milestones which were adopted from 2010.

Target 2015 milestone % reduction 2020 target % reduction
People killed 30% 40%
People seriously injured 43% 55%
Children (aged < 16) killed 35% 50%
Children (aged < 16) seriously injured 50% 65%

Each reduction target will be assessed against the 2004-08 average. In addition to the targets a 10 per cent reduction target in the slight casualty rate will continue to be adopted.

The four main targets differ to previous targets in that deaths have been separated out from serious injuries as, in recent years, trends have been different - serious injuries falling steadily but deaths declining at a lower rate.

The targets are deliberately challenging, particularly for child deaths as the child fatality rate in Scotland is higher than in England and Wales. The child fatality target itself will be monitored using a 3 year rolling average due to the small numbers of fatalities each year.

To illustrate the reductions necessary the following table show the level of casualties inferred by the 2015 milestones and 2020 targets above.

2004-2008 average 2015 milestone 2020 target
People killed 292 204 175
People seriously injured 2,605 1,484 1,172
Children (aged < 16) killed 15 10 8
Children (aged < 16) seriously injured 325 163 114

Charts showing indicative lines of progress are in figure 8. More detail about the calculation of these indicative lines is included in section 5 of this article.

2 Summary of Progress

The 2013 figures show:

  • 172 people were reported as killed in 2013, 41 per cent (120) below the 2004-2008 average of 292 - so the reduction seen to date exceeds that needed to reach the 2015 milestone and the 2020 target.
  • 1,672 people were reported as seriously injured in 2013, 36 per cent (933) below the 2004-2008 average of 2,605. The number of people seriously injured remains above the 2015 milestone.
  • 9 children were reported as killed in 2013, an average of 6 a year in the 2011-2013 period, 60 per cent (9) below the 2004-2008 average of 15. The level of reduction seen to date exceeds that needed to reach the 2015 milestone and 2020 target of a 50 per cent fall.
  • 143 children were reported as seriously injured in 2013, 56 per cent (182) below the 2004-2008 average of 325, exceeding the reduction needed to reach the 2015 milestone.
  • The slight casualty rate of 22.02 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2013 was 32 per cent below the 2004-2008 baseline average of 32.47.

Figure 8 shows progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2020.

3 Modes of Transport

Table Ib shows progress against the 2020 targets by mode of transport.

Numbers killed

As shown in Table Ia below, a reduction of 24 per cent compared to the baseline was required in 2013 to remain on the trajectory for this target. The overall reduction seen between the baseline and 2013 was 41 per cent.

Percentage reductions are not recorded in Table Ib where the denominator is 50 or fewer so percentage changes on 2004-2008 have only been calculated for cars and pedestrian fatalities. Car fatalities are down 45 per cent on the baseline which exceeds the 2020 target. Pedestrian fatalities are down by 41 per cent from the baseline, also exceeding the target.

Numbers Seriously Injured

As shown in Table Ia below, a reduction of just over 35 per cent compared to the baseline was required in 2013 to remain on the trajectory for this target. The overall reduction for 2013 is 36 per cent, therefore around the trajectory required to meet the target.

Table Ib shows that pedestrian, car, bus & coach and goods serious injuries have fallen by a greater percentage than that implied as needed by the trajectory. The numbers of car drivers and passengers seriously injured has fallen by 43 per cent since the baseline. All other modes except pedal cycles have seen a fall when compared to the baseline.

Children killed

The number of child fatalities is relatively small and the average of 6 over the last three years is below the 50 per cent reduction target set for 2020. Table Ib shows that the average number of child fatalities for 2011-2013 for each mode is below the 2004-2008 baseline.

Child pedestrian fatalities have fallen from an average of 6 per year in 2004-2008 to an average of 3 per year in 2011-2013. Pedal Cycle fatalities has fallen from an average of 2 per year in the baseline period to an average of 1 in the last three years. The number of fatalities as passengers in cars has fallen as well from an average of 6 per year in the baseline period to 2 per year in the 2011-2013 period,.

Children seriously injured

As shown in Table Ia below, a reduction of just under 42 per cent compared to the baseline was required in 2013 to remain on the trajectory for this target. The overall reduction for 2013 is 56 per cent.

Table Ib shows that car and pedestrian serious injuries have fallen by a greater percentage than that implied by the trajectory, 45 per cent and 58 per cent respectively. Percentages have not been calculated for other modes due to small denominators. The figures for all modes in 2013 are below the 2004-2008 baseline, except for bus and coach which remains the same.

Slightly injured casualties

Because of the limited availability of detailed reliable road traffic estimates for Scotland, Table Ia shows the numbers of slight casualties (rather than slight casualty rates) for categories of road user. The table also shows the overall total volume of traffic and the overall slight casualty rate.

Table Ib shows that slight injuries per million vehicle kilometres are 32 per cent below the 2004-2008 average.

Apart from pedal cycles, the number of slight casualties has fallen compared to the baseline for all modes of transport. The largest reductions are seen for bus / coach, pedestrian, cars and 'other', 48 per cent, 39 per cent, 33 per cent and 39 per cent respectively. Car users make up almost two thirds of slight casualties and there has been a reduction of a third compared to the baseline period. Pedal cycles on the other hand have shown an 18 per cent increase on the 2004-2008 average. There is some evidence to suggest that this increase is smaller than the increase in cyclists on the road over the same period.

4. Other statistics for monitoring progress

Table 40 in the main section of this publication shows the baseline figures for each local authority area for the four targets relating to numbers killed and seriously injured (separately for trunk roads, local authority roads and all roads), along with the corresponding figures for each of the past 10 years and the latest five years' averages. Table 41 provides figures for each local authority area related to the numbers slightly injured, and Table 42 shows figures for each Police Force division related to all five targets. In addition, many other tables include the 2004-2008 baseline averages.

5. Assessing progress towards the casualty reduction targets

One way of assessing progress towards the targets is to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 2006 (mid point of the 2004 to 2008 average) and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, to the milestone for 2015 and from there to the target for 2020. This is the approach adopted by the GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. The indicative line starts at the baseline figure in 2006 as that is the middle year of the baseline period. Other approaches could have been used: there are many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for 2020.

The method adopted to produce the indicative target lines shown in Figure 8 involves a constant percentage reduction in each year after 2006 to the 2015 milestone, then a constant percentage reduction between 2015 and 2020. The resulting indicative target lines represent the percentages of the baseline averages which are shown in the table below. They are not straight lines, because of the compounding over the years effect of constant annual percentage reductions (to two decimal places, the falls are: 3.89% per annum for killed to meet the 2015 milestone and 3.02% between 2015 and 2020. For seriously injured casualties the falls are 6.06% and 4.61%. For child killed 4.67% and 4.37 or children seriously injured 7.41% and 6.90.

Table Ia Constant percentage reductions needed to achieve 2015 and 2020 targets
Killed

Serious

Child killed

Child serious
% baseline (milestone from 2015) % reduction from baseline (milestone) % baseline (milestone from 2015) % reduction from baseline (milestone) % baseline (milestone from 2015) % reduction from baseline (milestone) % baseline (milestone from 2015) % reduction from baseline (milestone)
2006 100% 100% 100% 100%
2007 96.1% 3.9% 93.9% 6.1% 95.3% 4.7% 92.6% 7.4%
2008 92.4% 7.6% 88.3% 11.7% 90.9% 9.1% 85.7% 14.3%
2009 88.8% 11.2% 82.9% 17.1% 86.6% 13.4% 79.4% 20.6%
2010 85.3% 14.7% 77.9% 22.1% 82.6% 17.4% 73.5% 26.5%
2011 82.0% 18.0% 73.2% 26.8% 78.7%

21.3%

68.0%

32.0%
2012 78.8% 21.2% 68.7% 31.3% 75.0% 25.0% 63.0% 37.0%
2013 75.8% 24.2% 64.6% 35.4% 71.5% 28.5% 58.3% 41.7%
2014 72.8% 27.2% 60.7% 39.3% 68.2% 31.8% 54.0% 46.0%
2015 70.0% 30.0% 57.0% 43.0% 65.0% 35.0% 50.0% 50.0%
2015 100% 100% 100% 100%
2016 97.0% 3.0% 95.4% 4.6% 95.6% 4.4% 93.1% 6.9%
2017 94.1% 5.9% 91.0% 9.0% 91.5% 8.5% 86.7% 13.3%
2018 91.2% 8.8% 86.8% 13.2% 87.5% 12.5% 80.7% 19.3%
2019 88.5% 11.5% 82.8% 17.2% 83.7% 16.3% 75.1% 24.9%
2020 85.8% 14.2% 79.0% 21.0% 80.0% 20.0% 69.9% 30.1%
Table Ib: Reported killed casualties by mode of transport
Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus/coach Goods1 Other2 All road users
2004-08 average  65  9  42  162  1  12  2  292
2006  61  10  58  175  -    8  2  314
2007  60  4  40  160  -    15  2  281
2008  60  9  34  153  1  8  5  270
2009  47  5  43  116  -    5  -    216
2010  47  7  35  105  1  8  5  208
2011  43  7  33  89  1  9  3  185
2012  60  9  21  74  1  13  -    178
2013  38  13  23  89  2  5  2  172
09-13 ave  47  8  31  95  1  8  2  192
2020 target  39  6  25  97  0  7  1  175
Percent changes:
2013 on 2012 -37 * * 20 * * * -3
2013 on 2004-08 average -41 * * -45 * * * -41
Reported seriously injured casualties by mode of transport
Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus/coach Goods1 Other2 All  road users
2004-08 average  656  134  371  1,258  55  82  51  2,605
2006  688  131  352  1,258  57  91  58  2,635
2007  594  147  381  1,110  33  87  33  2,385
2008  645  155  396  1,203  59  65  52  2,575
2009  509  152  332  1,135  36  73  50  2,287
2010  457  138  319  903  52  60  40  1,969
2011  515  156  293  758  51  63  44  1,880
2012  461  168  342  848  44  68  49  1,980
2013  404  148  280  722  34  45  39  1,672
09-13 ave  469  152  313  873  43  62  44  1,958
2020 target  295  60  167  566  25  37  23  1,172
Percent changes:
2013 on 2012 -12 -12 -18 -15 * -34 * -16
2013 on 2004-08 average -38 10 -24 -43 -38 -45 -23 -36
Reported children (0-15) killed by mode of transport
Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus/coach Goods1 Other2 All road users
2004-08 average  6  2  0  6  -  0  0  15
2006  9  5  -  10  -  1  -  25
2007  4  1  -  4  -  -  -  9
2008  4  2  1  13  -  -  -  20
2009  1  1  -  3  -  -  -  5
2010  1  1  1  1  -  -  -  4
2011  2  -  -  5  -  -  -  7
2012  1  1  -  -  -  -  -  2
2013  5  2  -  2  -  -  -  9
09-13 ave  2  1  0  2  -  -  -  5
2020 target  3  1  0  3  -  0  0  8
11-13 ave  3  1  -  2  -  -  -  6
Percent changes:
11-2013 on 2004-08 average * * * * * * * *
Reported child (0-15) seriously injured casualties by mode of transport
Pedestrian Pedal Motor cycle Car Bus/coach Goods1 Other2 All road users
2004-08 average  218  29  8  62  3  1  3  325
2006  239  35  10  60  4  -  2  350
2007  181  28  4  51  1  1  3  269
2008  194  18  5  56  2  1  3  279
2009  155  26  2  62  2  1  5  253
2010  150  23  3  40  7  -  -  223
2011  139  23  2  34  4  -  1  203
2012  132  21  1  34  1  5  -  194
2013  92  11  1  34  3  -  2  143
09-13 ave  134  21  2  41  3  1  2  203
2020 target  76  10  3  22  1  0  1  114
Percent changes:
2013 on 2012 -30 * * * * * * -26
2013 on 2004-08 average -58 * * -45 * * * -56
Reported slight casualties by mode of transport
Pedestrian Pedal  cycle Motor cycle Car Buscoach/ Goods1 Other2 All road users Traffic Slight casualty rate
numbers mill veh-km per 100 mill veh-km
2004-08 average  2,135  613  637  9,187  693  503  431  14,200  43,736 32.47
2006  2,104  640  658  9,272  706  484  456  14,320  44,119 32.46
2007  2,050  563  640  8,793  590  506  431  13,573  44,666 30.39
2008  1,888  566  612  8,314  527  467  373  12,747  44,470 28.66
2009  1,643  647  646  8,328  437  423  416  12,540  44,219 28.36
2010  1,509  636  491  7,293  487  386  359  11,161  43,488 25.66
2011  1,506  661  482  6,933  454  382  305  10,723  43,390 24.71
2012  1,465  729  504  6,744  396  411  314  10,563  43,549 24.26
2013  1,305  722  470  6,150  358  387  262  9,654  43,840 22.02
09-13 ave  1,486  679  519  7,090  426  398  331  10,928  43,697 25.01
2020 target 29.22
Percent changes:
2013 on 2012 -11 -1 -7 -9 -10 -6 -17 -9 1 -9
2013 on 2004-08 average -39 18 -26 -33 -48 -23 -39 -32 0 -32

1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport
* Indicates that a percentage change is not shown because the denominator is 50 or fewer.