Article 1. Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020

Article 1. Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020

Figure 8: Progress towards the 2020 casualty reduction targets

Figure 8 Progress towards the 2020 casualty reduction targets

1. Introduction

Scotland's Road Safety Framework was launched in June 2009. It set out the vision for road safety in Scotland, the main priorities and issues and included Scotland-specific targets and milestones which were adopted from 2010.

Target 2015 milestone % reduction 2020 target % reduction
People killed 30% 40%
People seriously injured 43% 55%
Children (aged < 16) killed 35% 50%
Children (aged < 16) seriously injured 50% 65%

Each reduction target will be assessed against the 2004-08 average. In addition to the targets a 10 per cent reduction target in the slight casualty rate will continue to be adopted.

The four main targets differ to previous targets in that deaths have been separated out from serious injuries as, in recent years, trends have been different - serious injuries falling steadily but deaths declining at a lower rate.

The targets are deliberately challenging, particularly for child deaths as the child fatality rate in Scotland is higher than in England and Wales. The child fatality target itself will be monitored using a 3 year rolling average due to the small numbers of fatalities each year.

To illustrate the reductions necessary the following table shows the 2004 to 2008 baseline, the latest position as well as the level of casualties inferred by the 2015 milestones and 2020 targets.

2004-2008 average 2016 2015 milestone 2020 target
People killed 292 191 204 175
People seriously injured 2,605 1,697 1,484 1,172
Children (aged < 16) killed 15 81 10 8
Children (aged < 16) seriously injured 325 167 163 114

1. 2014-16 average

Charts showing indicative lines of progress are in figure 8. More detail about the calculation of these indicative lines is included in section 5 of this article.

2 Summary of Progress

The 2016 figures show:

  • 191 people were reported as killed in 2016, 35 per cent (101) below the 2004-2008 average of 292.
  • 1,697 people were reported as seriously injured in 2016, 35 per cent (908) below the 2004-2008 average of 2,605.
  • 12 children were reported as killed in 2016, meaning the average for the 2014-2016 period was 8 a year, this is 48 per cent (7) below the 2004-2008 average of 15.
  • 167 children were reported as seriously injured in 2016, 49 per cent (158) below the 2004-2008 average of 325.
  • The slight casualty rate of 19.41 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2016 was 40 per cent below the 2004-2008 baseline average of 32.47.

Figure 8 shows progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2020.

3 Commentary

Numbers killed

As shown in Table la a reduction of 3 per cent compared to the 2015 milestone of 204 was required in 2016 to reach the target. The figure for 2016 is 191 which is 6% below the 2015 milestone figure of 204.

From Table Ib, car fatalities are down 6 per cent on the 2015 milestone which exceeds the 2020 target.

Numbers Seriously Injured

As shown in Table Ia below, a reduction of 4.6 per cent compared to the 2015 milestone of 1,484 was required in 2015 to reach this target. The 2016 figure of 1,697 is 14 per cent greater than this and therefore above the trajectory required to meet the target.

Children killed

The number of child fatalities is relatively small and the average of 8 over the last three years meets the 50 per cent reduction target set for 2020. Table Ib shows that the average number of child fatalities for 2014-2016 for each mode is below the 2004-2008 baseline.

Child pedestrian fatalities have fallen from an average of 6 per year in 2004-2008 to an average of 4 per year in 2014-2016.

Pedal Cycle child fatalities have fallen from an average of 2 per year in the baseline period to an average of 1 in the last three years. The number of child fatalities as passengers in cars has fallen as well from an average of 6 per year in the baseline period to 3 per year in the 2014-2016 period,.

Children seriously injured

As shown in Table Ia below, a reduction of 6.9 per cent compared to the 2015 milestone of 163 was required in 2016 to remain on the trajectory for this target. The 2016 figure of 167 is 2.5 per cent above the trajectory.

Slightly injured casualties

Because of the limited availability of detailed reliable road traffic estimates for Scotland, Table Ib shows the numbers of slight casualties (rather than slight casualty rates) for categories of road user. The table also shows the overall total volume of traffic and the overall slight casualty rate.

Table Ib shows that slight injuries per million vehicle kilometres are 40 per cent below the 2004-2008 average.

Apart from pedal cycles, the number of slight casualties has fallen compared to the baseline for all modes of transport. The largest reductions are seen for bus / coach, pedestrian, cars and 'other', 63 per cent, 42 per cent, 37 per cent and 47 per cent respectively. Car users make up almost two thirds of slight casualties and there has been a reduction of over a third compared to the baseline period. Pedal cycles on the other hand have shown a 3 per cent increase on the 2004-2008 average. There is some evidence to suggest that this increase is smaller than the increase in cyclists on the road over the same period.

4. Other statistics for monitoring progress

Table 40 in the main section of this publication shows the baseline figures for each local authority area for the four targets relating to numbers killed and seriously injured (separately for trunk roads, local authority roads and all roads), along with the corresponding figures for each of the past 10 years and the latest five years' averages. Table 41 provides figures for each local authority area related to the numbers slightly injured, and Table 42 shows figures for each Police Force division related to all five targets. In addition, many other tables include the 2004-2008 baseline averages.

5. Assessing progress towards the casualty reduction targets

One way of assessing progress towards the targets is to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 2006 (mid point of the 2004 to 2008 average) and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, to the milestone for 2015 and from there to the target for 2020. This is the approach adopted by the GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. The indicative line starts at the baseline figure in 2006 as that is the middle year of the baseline period. Other approaches could have been used: there are many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for 2020.

The method adopted to produce the indicative target lines shown in Figure 8 involves a constant percentage reduction in each year after 2006 to the 2015 milestone, then a constant percentage reduction between 2015 and 2020. The resulting indicative target lines represent the percentages of the baseline averages which are shown in the table below. They are not straight lines, because of the compounding over the years effect of constant annual percentage reductions (to two decimal places, the falls are: 3.89% per annum for killed to meet the 2015 milestone and 3.02% between 2015 and 2020). For seriously injured casualties the falls are 6.06% and 4.61%. For child killed 4.67% and 4.37% or children seriously injured 7.41% and 6.90%.

Table Ia: Constant percentage reductions needed to achieve 2015 and 2020 targets
Killed Serious Child killed Child serious
% baseline (milestone from 2015) % reduction from baseline (milestone) % baseline (milestone from 2015) % reduction from baseline (milestone) % baseline (milestone from 2015) % reduction from baseline (milestone) % baseline (milestone from 2015) % reduction from baseline (milestone)
2006 100% 100% 100% 100%
2007 96.1% 3.9% 93.9% 6.1% 95.3% 4.7% 92.6% 7.4%
2008 92.4% 7.6% 88.3% 11.7% 90.9% 9.1% 85.7% 14.3%
2009 88.8% 11.2% 82.9% 17.1% 86.6% 13.4% 79.4% 20.6%
2010 85.3% 14.7% 77.9% 22.1% 82.6% 17.4% 73.5% 26.5%
2011 82.0% 18.0% 73.2% 26.8% 78.7% 21.3% 68.0% 32.0%
2012 78.8% 21.2% 68.7% 31.3% 75.0% 25.0% 63.0% 37.0%
2013 75.8% 24.2% 64.6% 35.4% 71.5% 28.5% 58.3% 41.7%
2014 72.8% 27.2% 60.7% 39.3% 68.2% 31.8% 54.0% 46.0%
2015 70.0% 30.0% 57.0% 43.0% 65.0% 35.0% 50.0% 50.0%
2015 100% 100% 100% 100%
2016 97.0% 3.0% 95.4% 4.6% 95.6% 4.4% 93.1% 6.9%
2017 94.1% 5.9% 91.0% 9.0% 91.5% 8.5% 86.7% 13.3%
2018 91.2% 8.8% 86.8% 13.2% 87.5% 12.5% 80.7% 19.3%
2019 88.5% 11.5% 82.8% 17.2% 83.7% 16.3% 75.1% 24.9%
2020 85.8% 14.2% 79.0% 21.0% 80.0% 20.0% 69.9% 30.1%

Table Ib: Reported killed casualties by mode of transport
  Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus/coach Goods1 Other2 All road users
2004-08 average 65 9 42 162 1 12 2 292
2009 47 5 43 116 - 5 - 216
2010 47 7 35 105 1 8 5 208
2011 43 7 33 89 1 9 3 185
2012 59 9 21 73 1 13 - 176
2013 38 13 23 89 2 5 2 172
2014 59 8 30 94 1 2 9 203
2015 44 5 27 75 1 13 3 168
2016 32 8 30 106 3 6 6 191
12-16 ave 46 9 26 87 2 8 4 182
2020 target 39 6 25 97 0 7 1 175
Percent changes:
2016 on 2015 -46 0 0 13 200 200 -33 -6
2016 on 2004-08 average -50 -13 -28 -34 275 -48 150 -35

 

Reported seriously injured casualties by mode of transport
  Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus/coach Goods1 Other2 All road users
2004-08 average 656 134 371 1,258 55 82 51 2,605
2009 509 152 332 1,135 36 73 50 2,287
2010 457 138 319 903 52 60 40 1,969
2011 515 156 293 758 51 63 44 1,880
2012 461 169 343 847 44 68 49 1,981
2013 403 149 281 720 34 45 39 1,671
2014 422 159 326 686 28 51 31 1,703
2015 424 164 257 639 49 46 21 1,600
2016 396 148 268 761 42 55 27 1,697
12-16 ave 421 158 295 731 39 53 33 1,730
2020 target 295 60 167 566 25 37 23 1,172
Percent changes:
2016 on 2015 -6 -7 -18 11 50 8 -13 0
2016 on 2004-08 average -40 10 -28 -39 -24 -33 -47 -35

 

Reported children (0-15) killed by mode of transport
  Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus/coach Goods1 Other2 All road users
2004-08 average 6 2 0 6 - 0 0 15
2009 1 1 - 3 - - - 5
2010 1 1 1 1 - - - 4
2011 2 - - 5 - - - 7
2012 1 1 - - - - - 2
2013 5 2 - 2 - - - 9
2014 3 - - 4 - - - 7
2015 3 1 - - - - - 4
2016 3 1 1 7 - - - 12
12-16 ave 3 1 0 3 - - - 7
2020 target 3 1 0 3 - 0 0 8
14-16 ave 4 1 0 3 - - - 8
Percent changes:
14-2016 on 2004-08 average -42 -58 -38 -48 - -100 -100 -48

 

Reported child (0-15) seriously injured casualties by mode of transport
  Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus/coach Goods1 Other2 All road users
2004-08 average 218 29 8 62 3 1 3 325
2009 155 26 2 62 2 1 5 253
2010 150 23 3 40 7 - - 223
2011 139 23 2 34 4 - 1 203
2012 132 21 1 34 1 5 - 194
2013 92 11 1 33 3 - 2 142
2014 116 18 4 27 2 1 3 171
2015 97 11 1 27 2 - 1 139
2016 105 8 4 46 2 2 - 167
12-16 ave 108 14 2 33 2 2 1 163
2020 target 76 10 3 22 1 0 1 114
Percent changes:
2016 on 2015 -9 -56 0 70 0 - -100 -2
2016 on 2004-08 average -52 -73 -49 -26 -38 43 -100 -49

 

Reported slight casualties by mode of transport
  Pedestrian Pedal cycle Motor cycle Car Bus/coach Goods1 Other2 All road users Traffic Slight casualty rate
numbers mill veh-km per 100 mill veh-km
2004-08 average 2,135 613 637 9,187 693 503 431 14,200 43,736 32.47
2009 1,643 647 646 8,328 437 423 416 12,540 44,219 28.36
2010 1,509 636 491 7,293 487 386 359 11,161 43,488 25.66
2011 1,506 661 482 6,930 453 384 305 10,721 43,390 24.71
2012 1,459 727 503 6,745 396 411 314 10,555 43,549 24.24
2013 1,304 725 471 6,151 358 390 260 9,659 43,840 22.03
2014 1,270 727 471 6,007 262 400 265 9,402 44,839 20.97
2015 1,226 628 450 5,999 282 411 209 9,205 45,374 20.29
2016 1,237 634 412 5,832 256 412 230 9,013 46,437 19.41
12-16 ave 1,299 688 461 6,147 311 405 256 9,567 44,572 21.46
2020 target 29.22
Percent changes:
2016 on 2015 -3 -13 -13 -3 -2 3 -13 -4 4 -7
2016 on 2004-08 average -42 3 -35 -37 -63 -18 -47 -37 6 -40

1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport