Article 1 Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020

Reported Road Casualties Scotland 2017

Article 1 Casualty Reduction
Targets: Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020

Figure 8 Progress towards the 2020 casualty reduction targets
(A) Reported casualties killed

(B) Reported seriously Injured casualties

(C) Reported children killed

(D) Reported child seriously Injured casualties

Article 1: Casualty Reduction Targets: Scotland's Road Safety Framework to 2020

1. Introduction

Scotland's Road Safety Framework was launched in June 2009. It set out the vision for road safety in Scotland, the main priorities and issues and included Scotland-specific targets and milestones which were adopted from 2010.

Target	2015 milestone % reduction	2020 target % reduction
People killed	30%	40%
People seriously injured	43%	55%
Children (aged < 16) killed	35%	50%
Children (aged < 16) seriously injured	50%	65%

Each reduction target will be assessed against the 2004-08 average. In addition to the targets a 10 per cent reduction target in the slight casualty rate will continue to be adopted.

The four main targets differ to those used previously, in that deaths have been separated out from serious injuries. In recent years the trends for deaths and serious injuries have differed and are therefore worth mentioning separately.

The targets are deliberately challenging, particularly for child deaths as the child fatality rate in Scotland is higher than in England and Wales. The child fatality target itself will be monitored using a 3 year rolling average due to the small numbers of fatalities each year.

To illustrate the reductions necessary the following table shows the 2004 to 2008 baseline, the latest position as well as the level of casualties inferred by the 2015 milestones and 2020 targets.

	2004-2008 average	2017	2015 milestone	2020 target
People killed	292	146	204	175
People seriously injured	2,605	1,589	1,484	1,172
Children (aged < 16) killed	15	61	10	8
Children (aged < 16) seriously injured	325	152	163	114

1. 2015-17 average

Charts showing indicative lines of progress are in figure 8. More detail about the calculation of these indicative lines is included in section 5 of this article.

2 Summary of Progress

The 2017 figures show:

• 146 people were reported as killed in 2017, 50 per cent (146) below the 2004-2008 average of 292.
• 1,589 people were reported as seriously injured in 2017, 39 per cent (1,016) below the 2004-2008 average of 2,605.
• 2 children were reported as killed in 2017, meaning the average for the 2015-2017 period was 6 a year, this is 61 per cent (9) below the 2004-2008 average of 15.
• 152 children were reported as seriously injured in 2017, 53 per cent (173) below the 2004-2008 average of 325.
• The slight casualty rate of 16.03 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2017 was 51 per cent below the 2004-2008 baseline average of 32.47.

Figure 8 shows progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2020.

3 Commentary

Numbers killed

As shown in Table la a reduction of 5.9 per cent compared to the 2015 milestone of 204 was required in 2017 to reach the target. The figure for 2017 is 146 which is 28% below the 2015 milestone figure of 204.

From Table Ib, car fatalities are down 43 per cent on the 2015 milestone which exceeds the 2020 target.

Numbers Seriously Injured

As shown in Table Ia below, a reduction of 9 per cent compared to the 2015 milestone of 1,484 was required in 2017 to reach this target. The 2017 figure of 1,589 is 7 per cent greater than this and therefore above the trajectory required to meet the target.

Children killed

The number of child fatalities is relatively small and the average of 6 over the last three years meets the 50 per cent reduction target set for 2020. Table Ib shows that the average number of child fatalities for 2015-2017 for each mode is below the 2004-2008 baseline.

Child pedestrian fatalities have fallen from an average of 6 per year in 2004-2008 to an average of 3 per year in 2015-2017.

Pedal Cycle child fatalities have fallen from an average of 2 per year in the baseline period to an average of 1 in the last three years. The number of child fatalities as passengers in cars has fallen as well from an average of 6 per year in the baseline period to 2 per year in the 2015-2017 period,.

Children seriously injured

As shown in Table Ia below, a reduction of 13.3 per cent compared to the 2015 milestone of 163 was required in 2017 to remain on the trajectory for this target. The 2017 figure of 152 is 7 per cent below the trajectory.

Slightly injured casualties

Because of the limited availability of detailed reliable road traffic estimates for Scotland, Table Ib shows the numbers of slight casualties (rather than slight casualty rates) for categories of road user. The table also shows the overall total volume of traffic and the overall slight casualty rate.

Table Ib shows that slight injuries per million vehicle kilometres are 51 per cent below the 2004-2008 average.

The number of slight casualties has fallen compared to the baseline for all modes of transport. The largest reductions are seen for pedestrian, bus / coach and motorcycle, 56 per cent, 52 and 51 per cent respectively. Car users make up almost two thirds of slight casualties and there has been a reduction of 46% compared to the baseline period. Pedal cycles on the other hand have shown a 10 per cent decrease on the 2004-2008 average.

4. Other statistics for monitoring progress

Table 40 in the main section of this publication shows the baseline figures for each local authority area for the four targets relating to numbers killed and seriously injured (separately for trunk roads, local authority roads and all roads), along with the corresponding figures for each of the past 10 years and the latest five years' averages. Table 41 provides figures for each local authority area related to the numbers slightly injured, and Table 42 shows figures for each Police Force division related to all five targets. In addition, many other tables include the 2004-2008 baseline averages.

5. Assessing progress towards the casualty reduction targets

One way of assessing progress towards the targets is to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 2006 (mid point of the 2004 to 2008 average) and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, to the milestone for 2015 and from there to the target for 2020. This is the approach adopted by the GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. The indicative line starts at the baseline figure in 2006 as that is the middle year of the baseline period. Other approaches could have been used: there are many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for 2020.

The method adopted to produce the indicative target lines shown in Figure 8 involves a constant percentage reduction in each year after 2006 to the 2015 milestone, then a constant percentage reduction between 2015 and 2020. The resulting indicative target lines represent the percentages of the baseline averages which are shown in the table below. They are not straight lines, because of the compounding over the years effect of constant annual percentage reductions (to two decimal places, the falls are: 3.89% per annum for killed to meet the 2015 milestone and 3.02% between 2015 and 2020). For seriously injured casualties the falls are 6.06% and 4.61%. For child killed 4.67% and 4.37% or children seriously injured 7.41% and 6.90%.

Table Ia Constant percentage reductions needed to achieve 2015 and 2020 targets

	Killed		Serious		Child killed		Child serious
	% baseline (milestone from 2015)	% reduction from baseline (milestone)	% baseline (milestone from 2015)	% reduction from baseline (milestone)	% baseline (milestone from 2015)	% reduction from baseline (milestone)	% baseline (milestone from 2015)	% reduction from baseline (milestone)
2006	100%		100%		100%		100%
2007	96.1%	3.9%	93.9%	6.1%	95.3%	4.7%	92.6%	7.4%
2008	92.4%	7.6%	88.3%	11.7%	90.9%	9.1%	85.7%	14.3%
2009	88.8%	11.2%	82.9%	17.1%	86.6%	13.4%	79.4%	20.6%
2010	85.3%	14.7%	77.9%	22.1%	82.6%	17.4%	73.5%	26.5%
2011	82.0%	18.0%	73.2%	26.8%	78.7%	21.3%	68.0%	32.0%
2012	78.8%	21.2%	68.7%	31.3%	75.0%	25.0%	63.0%	37.0%
2013	75.8%	24.2%	64.6%	35.4%	71.5%	28.5%	58.3%	41.7%
2014	72.8%	27.2%	60.7%	39.3%	68.2%	31.8%	54.0%	46.0%
2015	70.0%	30.0%	57.0%	43.0%	65.0%	35.0%	50.0%	50.0%
2015	100%		100%		100%		100%
2016	97.0%	3.0%	95.4%	4.6%	95.6%	4.4%	93.1%	6.9%
2017	94.1%	5.9%	91.0%	9.0%	91.5%	8.5%	86.7%	13.3%
2018	91.2%	8.8%	86.8%	13.2%	87.5%	12.5%	80.7%	19.3%
2019	88.5%	11.5%	82.8%	17.2%	83.7%	16.3%	75.1%	24.9%
2020	85.8%	14.2%	79.0%	21.0%	80.0%	20.0%	69.9%	30.1%

Table Ib: Reported killed casualties by mode of transport

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motorcycle	Car	Bus/coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users
2004-08 average	65	9	42	162	1	12	2	292
2010	47	7	35	105	1	8	5	208
2011	43	7	33	89	1	9	3	185
2012	59	9	21	73	1	13	-	176
2013	38	13	23	89	2	5	2	172
2014	59	8	30	94	1	2	9	203
2015	44	5	27	75	1	13	3	168
2016	32	8	30	106	3	6	6	191
2017	38	5	29	65	2	3	4	146
13-17 ave	42	8	28	86	2	6	5	176
2020 target	39	6	25	97	0	7	1	175
Percent changes:
2017 on 2016	19	-38	-3	-39	-33	-50	-33	-24
2017 on 2004-08 average	-41	-46	-30	-60	150	-74	67	-50

Reported seriously injured casualties by mode of transport

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motorcycle	Car	Bus/coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users
2004-08 average	656	134	371	1,258	55	82	51	2,605
2010	457	138	319	903	52	60	40	1,969
2011	515	156	291	758	51	63	44	1,878
2012	461	169	343	847	44	68	49	1,981
2013	402	149	281	719	34	45	39	1,669
2014	420	159	327	686	28	51	31	1,702
2015	424	164	258	639	49	46	23	1,603
2016	399	148	268	762	42	54	26	1,699
2017	376	171	281	661	23	45	32	1,589
13-17 ave	404	158	283	693	35	48	30	1,652
2020 target	295	60	167	566	25	37	23	1,172
Percent changes:
2017 on 2016	-6	16	5	-13	-45	-17	23	-6
2017 on 2004-08 average	-43	28	-24	-47	-58	-45	-37	-39

Reported children (0-15) killed by mode of transport

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motorcycle	Car	Bus/coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users
2004-08 average	6	2	0	6	-	0	0	15
2010	1	1	1	1	-	-	-	4
2011	2	-	-	5	-	-	-	7
2012	1	1	-	-	-	-	-	2
2013	5	2	-	2	-	-	-	9
2014	3	-	-	4	-	-	-	7
2015	3	1	-	-	-	-	-	4
2016	3	1	1	7	-	-	-	12
2017	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
13-17 ave	3	1	0	3	-	-	-	7
2020 target	3	1	0	3	-	0	0	8
15-17 ave	3	1	0	2	-	-	-	6
Percent changes:
15-2017 on 2004-08 average	-56	-72	-17	-62	-	-100	-100	-61

Reported child (0-15) seriously injured casualties by mode of transport

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motorcycle	Car	Bus/coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users
2004-08 average	218	29	8	62	3	1	3	325
2010	150	23	3	40	7	-	-	223
2011	139	23	2	34	4	-	1	203
2012	132	21	1	34	1	5	-	194
2013	92	11	1	33	3	-	2	142
2014	116	18	4	27	2	1	3	171
2015	97	11	1	27	2	-	2	140
2016	105	8	4	46	2	2	-	167
2017	106	10	4	29	-	3	-	152
13-17 ave	103	12	3	32	2	1	1	154
2020 target	76	10	3	22	1	0	1	114
Percent changes:
2017 on 2016	1	25	-	-37	-100	50	n/a	-9
2017 on 2004-08 average	-51	-66	-49	-53	-100	114	-100	-53

Reported slight casualties by mode of transport

	Pedestrian	Pedal cycle	Motorcycle	Car	Bus/coach	Goods1	Other2	All road users	Traffic	Slightcasualty rate
								numbers	mill veh-km	per 100 mill veh-km
2004-08 average	2,135	613	637	9,187	693	503	431	14,200	43,736	32.47
2010	1,509	636	491	7,293	487	386	359	11,161	43,488	25.66
2011	1,506	661	482	6,930	453	385	304	10,721	43,390	24.71
2012	1,459	727	503	6,745	396	411	314	10,555	43,549	24.24
2013	1,296	724	471	6,157	358	391	257	9,654	43,840	22.02
2014	1,267	728	470	6,007	262	402	265	9,401	44,839	20.97
2015	1,224	628	450	6,000	282	411	214	9,209	45,374	20.30
2016	1,236	634	412	5,831	257	413	232	9,015	46,459	19.40
2017	946	553	310	4,978	332	354	220	7,693	47,986	16.03
13-17 ave	1,194	653	423	5,795	298	394	238	8,994	45,341	19.84
2020 target										29.22
Percent changes:
2017 on 2016	-23	-13	-25	-15	29	-14	-5	-15	3	-17
2017 on 2004-08 average	-56	-10	-51	-46	-52	-30	-49	-46	10	-51

1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport

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