Scottish Road Network Climate Change Study: UKCP09 update Autumn 2011
1 1 Introduction
1.1 Background
In 2009 the UKCP09 climate change scenarios were released. These scenarios are designed to provide improved and more detailed descriptions of the likely climate the UK will experience throughout the 21st century. As such they supersede the earlier UKCIP02 climate change projections.
There has therefore been a need to up date the findings of the "Scottish Road Network - Climate Change Study" (Scottish Executive, 2005); including its recommendations of adaptive strategies to minimise future climate change impacts. This will enable refined targeting of those issues most likely to be of importance in the future.
Jacobs was commissioned by Transport Scotland to update the earlier UKCIP02 work that Jacobs had undertaken in the production of the "Scottish Road Network - Climate Change Study". This document forms the final report of this current study.
The UKCP09 scenarios are probabilistic in nature. This adds greater complexity to their interpretation compared to earlier UKCIP 98 and 02 scenarios. This study has therefore been careful to adopt the same means of presenting this aspect as the UKCP09 publications and is consistent with the "Scotland's Climate Change Adaptation Framework" publication (Scottish Government, 2009). Using this approach aids consistency in message and understanding across different sectors and helps to prevent adding a further layer of complexity that would inhibit the efficient use of the projections.
1.2 Objectives
The objectives of the study are to:
i) Use the UKCP09 data to update the understanding of how climate change is likely to affect each of the climatic variables considered in the earlier Scottish Road Network - Climate Change study.
ii) To emphasise where departures from the previous understanding arise and to identify any implications to the earlier study's recommended adaptive strategies and relative priority.
1.3 Report Structure
Chapter 1 - Introduction
Chapter 2 - Overview of the UKCP09 scenarios
This section provides a brief overview of what the new scenarios are and emphasises how in general the UKCP09 scenarios are an advancement on the earlier UKCIP02 scenarios. Importantly there is a section in this chapter that discusses how to interpret the probabilistic nature of the UKCP09 scenarios.
Chapter 3 - Climatic variables investigated
Summarises the climatic variables that were investigated in the earlier Scottish Road Network - Climate Change study; and identifies those UKCP09 variables that were possible to be investigated in this study.
Chapter 4 - Methodology
Provides a brief outline of the analytical methods deployed to derive the required understanding from the UKCP09 data. This section in particular describes how the UKCP09 Weather Generator model was used to generate multiple time-series runs of daily data for three representative sites (Glasgow, Dundee and Aviemore).
Chapter 5 - Temperature related variables
Presents the UKCP09 projected changes to i) annual mean temperature ii) Number of frost days, iii) number of freeze-thaw days, iv) number of hot days, and v) length of growing season. Projections are compared to the equivalent findings of the earlier study.
Chapter 6 - Precipitation related variables
Presents the UKCP09 projected changes for i) annual and seasonal rainfall, ii) storm rainfall, and iii) soil moisture deficits and groundwater recharge. Projections are compared to the equivalent findings of the earlier study.
Chapter 7 - Other climatic variables
Presents the UKCP09 projected changes for i) sea-level rise.
Chapter 8 - Probabilistic approach and UK context
Presents a discussion on the use of probabilistic projections and consideration of the risks.
Chapter 9 - Discussion of 2005 Study Recommendations
Presents a summary of each of the recommendations of the Scottish Road Network - Climate Change Study and considers the validity of the recommendations in light of the UKCP09 scenarios.
Chapter 10 - Conclusions and future considerations