Context and Scottish Government Policy Position on Car Demand Management and Transport Demand Management Research
Cars account for nearly 40% of Scottish transport emissions and evidence is clear that Scotland needs to reduce overall car use, alongside a switch to cleaner vehicles, to meet its statutory emissions targets.
While the importance of combatting the immediate global climate emergency is clear, the benefits for communities which are less dominated by cars go beyond just reducing emissions. They include improved air quality and reduced noise; better health and wellbeing as a result of increased physical activity; reduced negative economic and social impacts of congestion and road danger; and increased opportunities for people of all ages, abilities and backgrounds to interact in improved areas of civic space.
Following lifting of pandemic travel restrictions car traffic recovered more strongly than public transport. Car kilometres driven rose sharply in 2021 and 2022. In 2023 car kms were 3.6% below 2019 baseline levels and driving a car or van remained the most common mode of transport, accounting for over half of journeys (51%). The 2023 data demonstrates persistently high car use in short journeys: 39% of 1-2km journeys, 48% of 2-3km journeys and 53% of 3-5km journeys were made by car or van drivers and the two most frequent reasons for travel were shopping (24% of journeys) and commuting (21% of journeys).
There are also large geographic variations, for example, in 2023 car access in accessible rural households was 88%, compared to 64% in large urban areas. The negative impacts of car use also disproportionately affect those living in more deprived areas. 13% of people in Scotland’s least deprived areas have no access to a car or van, compared to nearly half (48%) of those in the most deprived areas. Children in Scotland’s poorest communities are at 3 times higher risk of death or injury while out walking or cycling and interventions that prioritise bus over the private car favour the mode of public transport most used by lower income groups. The benefits of reduced car dependence are therefore broader than transport emission reduction and are a key part of Scottish Government’s and COSLA’s shared commitment to a just transition.
The Scottish Government has always been clear that reaching our target of a 20% reduction in car use by 2030 will require a broad combination of interventions, including infrastructure, incentives and disincentives. Reducing car use will require a substantial shift in travel behaviour, and we need all sectors of society to play their part in meeting this challenge.
We have taken a behaviour change approach to 20% car use reduction and we need to go further than simply about asking the public to change their behaviours, to create the right material and social conditions and providing people with the capability, opportunity and motivation to choose sustainable travel behaviours.
The draft Route Map published in January 2022 set out the actions that Scottish Government and COSLA would take to 2030 to enable a significant reduction in car kilometres. These largely include interventions that will support people’s physical opportunities to reduce their car use, for example through improved infrastructure and service provision, as well as those to increase motivation to switch away from car use by making alternatives comparatively more attractive, including in terms of convenience.
However, an important part of people’s motivation to choose one behaviour over another lies in the balance of individual-level benefits and dis-benefits. Incentivising desirable behaviours is unlikely to be sufficient in a context where car use remains highly attractive in terms of individual-level benefits, while the disbenefits to environmental and population health are largely externalised.
The draft Route Map therefore committed to further exploration of equitable options for demand management to discourage car use, including pricing and this has been explored through the commissioning of additional research. It committed to providing a shortlist of options for further exploration and feasibility analysis, that could inform the development of Transportation Demand Management (TDM) measures for those local authorities who choose to do so. The research shortlisted options take into account the needs of people in rural areas and island communities as well as those on low incomes and people with Equality Act protected characteristics.
This TDM research was commissioned by the Scottish Government to explore options to reduce car use. The research was undertaken by an independent firm, AECOM, and is not Scottish Government policy. While the research includes hypothetical modelling of both local and national options for demand management in Scotland, the Scottish Government does not have a policy position to progress national (Scotland-wide) road pricing. The Scottish Government continues to call for a collaborative four-nation approach with the UK Government who have key levers of power and responsibility for Fuel Duty reform to support the just transition to Net Zero.
This research adds to the evidence base on how to reduce car use fairly in Scotland and is made available to central and local governments to inform their own policy development and decision making on demand management going forward. It sets out clearly the emissions, equality and socio-economic impacts of each shortlisted option, including mitigations.
The Transport (Scotland) Act 2001 granted local authorities discretionary road user charging powers and local authorities are best placed to make decisions that take account their local needs and circumstances. Development and implementation of any local or regional demand management scheme by local authorities who chose to do this would take a significant amount of time. Robust public consultation and impact assessments must take place to ensure that any demand management measures operate efficiently and effectively to maximise the multi-faceted benefits of reduced car use.
The research also provides alternative revenue-raising solutions to replace lost revenues from Fuel Duty as the transition to electric vehicles gathers pace, while recognising that the Scottish Government faces limitations in this area. Revenue raising measures can enable funding for alternatives to private cars, including investment in our public transport system. The most direct levers on the cost of buying or running a petrol or diesel car – Fuel Duty and Vehicle Excise Duty – are reserved to the UK Government.
The Scottish Government’s position is that reform of Fuel Duty on a four-nation basis is needed to replace declining revenues as the transport sector decarbonises, as set out in the letter to the Chancellor ahead of the UK Budget. This is borne out by both Treasury’s Net Zero Review (October 2021) and the UK Parliament’s own Transport Committee, which identified a looming £35 billion of lost revenues as Fuel Duty becomes obsolete. Reform would also offer the opportunity to consider how a successor regime can reduce unnecessary journeys. However, it is crucial this reform is on a collaborative four-nation basis to ensure it reflects the diverse needs of communities, such as those in Scotland’s rural and island areas and helps support sustainable transport options.
In terms of incentives to reduce car use, the Scottish Government remains committed to working with all local authorities to support fair measures which encourage active travel and accompany greater investment in public transport for a fairer and greener transport system. The route map to achieving a 20% reduction in car use is co-produced with COSLA, in recognition of the joint commitment to a just transition to reducing car use. We continue to work closely with local and regional partners to update the route map and timeline for demand management, and we will publish it on completion of that engagement.